Twins' April Schedule Could Decide Fate of the 2023 Season

[Cody Christie]

Teams love to get off to a good start in the season's early weeks. However, the Twins' April schedule sets up to put the team in a hole.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

During the 2022 season, the Twins got off to a fast start with a 12-9 record in April. This stretch included a seven-game win streak and multiple walk-off wins. The early 2023 schedule isn't as favorable for the hometown nine, and it might be challenging for the club to survive the month with a .500 record.

The Good: March 30-April 2 at Kansas City Royals, April 3-5 at Miami Marlins, April 21-23 vs. Washington Nationals, April 27-30 vs. Kansas City Royals
All three of these teams were significantly below .500 during the 2022 season, which can help the Twins to salvage some early season victories. None of these teams made significant additions that will help their projections in 2023. MLB is shifting to a more balanced schedule in 2023, so the Marlins and Nationals series are a result of this change. Minnesota may line up to face Sandy Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young, in his second start. Luis Arraez and Pablo Lopez will also get a chance to face their old teams for the first time since this offseason's trade. 

Another part of the more balanced schedule is the number of divisional games decreasing from 76 to 52. This could hurt the Twins because they are in one of baseball's weakest divisions. Last season, the Twins went 12-7 against the Royals, so Minnesota will have played half of their games against KC by April's end. The Twins need to win all of these series to put themselves in a position to end the month with a winning record. 
Record Prediction: 10-3

The Bad: April 10-12 vs. Chicago White Sox, April 18-20 at Boston Red Sox 
Minnesota squeaked out a winning record against Chicago and Boston last season, but it certainly wasn't easy. The Twins went 4-3 against the Red Sox but only outscored them by four runs. At the end of August, Minnesota won a three-game series against Boston but then lost nine of their next 11 games and fell out of contention. Boston has had an interesting offseason as the team lost out on re-signing Xander Bogaerts, and Trevor Story had surgery on his right elbow. The AL East is one of baseball's toughest divisions, so the Red Sox can't afford to start slowly. 

Chicago's off-season has been about as interesting as Boston's. The White Sox lost Jose Abreu to the Astros, but the team signed Andrew Benintendi to fill one need. Mike Clevinger was their biggest starting pitcher signing, and he is now the subject of a league investigation into domestic violence and child abuse allegations. The Athletic gave Chicago an F grade, the lowest in MLB, for their poor off-season. Minnesota was outscored by Chicago in 2022 but won the season series 10-9. Will former Twins minor-league catcher Pedro Grifol, a new manager, help the White Sox to get back on track?
Record Prediction: 3-3

The Ugly: April 6-9 vs. Houston Astros, April 13-16 at New York Yankees, April 24-26 vs. New York Yankees
If there were two teams the Twins didn't want to see, it would be the Astros and the Yankees. Both teams have dominated the American League recently, and the Twins have struggled against both squads. The Astros destroyed the Twins in 2022 by going 6-0 and outscoring Minnesota by 25 runs. Even with Justin Verlander gone, Houston continues to churn out young pitchers to step into the rotation. Jose Abreu will step in at first base to help one of baseball's best offenses. Minnesota's only chance might be that the Astros are coming off a long postseason run, and they might be dealing with a World Series hangover. 

Minnesota's struggles with the Evil Empire are well documented. Last season, the Twins went 2-5 versus the Yankees while being outscored 30-41. New York spent the off-season getting better by re-signing Aaron Judge and adding Carlos Rodon to pair with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation. Minnesota hasn't won more than two games against the Yankees in any regular season since 2014. After the calendar turns to May, the Twins won't see the Yankees again during the 2023 campaign. The club gets them out of the way early <insert shrug emoji>.
Record Prediction: 2-8

If the above predictions hold true, the Twins will end April with a 15-14 record to sit slightly above .500. Many prognostications have the AL central winner ending with 86-88 wins, so this would put the Twins on pace to be close to that total. What are your thoughts about the Twins' early season schedule? What are your predictions for their April record? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

So you are saying they will have a winning first month, and that's bad?

[JD-TWINS]

16-13 is my guess ……….splitting hairs in April. Gonna need a couple good streaks to make the playoffs and these seldom happen in April. No reason to look at schedule for April and feel bad about things. It’s the first 18% of the year’s schedule. Our pitching depth 1-5 will pay off but it may take until July to show up as an advantage……….15 wins/month gets us to a 90 win season.

Playoff worthy?

[Cris E]

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early.

The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room. 

[LastOnePicked]

I love that they'll play the Yankees and Astros right away in April. Let's see what they've got. If they go 0-10 in these games (let's admit it, that's highly likely), then it's time to right-size expectations. If they go 5-5 or better, then maybe it's time for me to readjust my persistent pessimism. Let's start the season already!

[USNMCPO]

24 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early.

The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room. 

I agree with Cris E. April and September will be won in the trainers room. If the pitching staff can make it through spring training and Buxton can hold on, the Twins have a shot.

[Nashvilletwin]

Better to know early - particularly this season. Having said that, there is a lot of baseball to be played after April. Besides, for us it’s all about winning the division and it’s hard to see any team in the AL Central pulling away early. Let’s just play ‘em one game at a time and chat in early June.

[chpettit19]

I like them playing the Astros and Yankees early. Get them out of the way early, and hopefully the team is healthy for the most part which will give them a fighters chance to win a few games against them. Play roughly .500 ball against those 2 clubs in April in addition to hopefully beating up on the Marlins, Nats, and Royals could put this team in a great place early. Not that that means a lot as we saw last year. But it's better than being in a terrible spot early.

As terrible as it is to say, let's just get through April healthy and see where we're at.

[Blyleven2011]

The teams both have to play in the cold month of april so I don't want to hear this excuse as the twins hot bat's from spring training  cool off in the cold climate  ... 

Let's hope that the spring weather is in favor of baseball and the twins can jump off to a good start ....

They have a full spring training to get prepared this season  so I don't want to hear this excuse either ...

The motto of the boy scouts is always BE PREPARED  ...

Can the coaching prepare the twins players to play fundamentally sound baseball  , that is the question for winning baseball  ...

[Tibs]

I wish we would stop with the clickbait stuff.

The Twins season will be determined by how they perform over 162 games, not any single month.

[RedBull34]

IDK, the Yanks are built for Power, and the ball doesn't travel as well in the cold.  Probably the best time of year to play them.  Stro's are too, good to see the Twins get that series out of the way early.  I think they stand a better chance in April then they do in August against both.

But we'll see how healthy the Twins are coming through ST...

[Karbo]

At least they have a better chance of being healthy in April, and hopefully they can hold their own against NY and Hou.

[roger]

Have seen lots of posts that talk about the more balanced schedule and there not being as many games against the Royales and Tigers.  But that is the same for all the teams in the Central.  So it won't have an effect on winning the Division.  Granted, it could make a difference for a wild card.

Also see talk about facing the Aces out there, Alcantara, Cole, etc.  If we are facing the Ace, there is a good chance we will also be facing the #4 or #5 guys.  With the Twins starting depth, I'll gladly put our #4, #5 and #1 up against others teams 4,5 and 1.

[mac098]

Like the old saying is said, "The season can't be won in April, but it can certainly be lost." Look at the 2021 Twins. That was a prime example of losing the season in April. If we can come out looking at a .500 record, I think we'll be sitting pretty good in a weak division. 

But I do think we need to look at the series against those top teams. If we can split or look at a 3-7/4-6 that will give us a really good idea of where we stand relative to some powerhouse teams. Heck, it might actually help us find where we need to improve. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

New York spent the off-season getting better by re-signing Aaron Judge and adding Carlos Rodon to pair with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation.

I disagree with this statement.  Re-signing Aaron Judge did not make them better as they had him last year.  The only real add in your comment is Carlos Rodon and with two series against the Yanks in April that accounts for only two games with the new add having impact.

[stringer bell]

At some point the Twins will start winning more games against the Yankees than the odds say they should. I would like to see it in my lifetime. I would like to see it this year TBH. The projection ends up being about .500 and it wouldn't surprise me if that is what it ends up. I think the Twin win four games (or more) versus New York and Houston, but isn't as dominating against the bad teams.

[Cody Christie]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

So you are saying they will have a winning first month, and that's bad?

Those were my predictions, but they can certainly be swept in all the games versus the Astros and Yankees. That would put them under .500.

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Those were my predictions, but they can certainly be swept in all the games versus the Astros and Yankees. That would put them under .500.

Good thing the games aren't played on paper then :)

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, Tibs said:

I wish we would stop with the clickbait stuff.

The Twins season will be determined by how they perform over 162 games, not any single month.

Not meant to be clickbait. They have a tough schedule in April and that was the point of this story. The 2021 team did terrible in April and didn't recover. Some teams get off to a great start and it carries them throughout the season. There are ebbs and flows to a 162-game season and getting off to a good start can help.

[TCSquad]

So essentially, the Twins are going to have to beat the teams they hope to face in October, but in April? Sounds like reasonable expectations. 

[ashbury]

"Beating the teams they should beat" to the tune of 10-3 seems the biggest risk to the plan.  Do that, and yes, they should be sitting pretty well, even if they stumble against good teams.

Events don't always unfold like we anticipate, but that's why we watch the games.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record.

I'd even go so far as to say that what happens in May, June, July, August, and September will together be 5X as important as April.

[Craig Arko]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

At least they have a better chance of being healthy in April, and hopefully they can hold their own against NY and Hou.

This. They’re likely to be the healthiest they can and have all (most) hands on deck early. Seems like a good test.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't think that your "bad" will be that bad at all. And your "ugly" isn't going to be that bad. I feel pretty good about this team. Most of the time a game is lost in the mind before the game is even played. IMO we are a better team than NYY, I want our team come out of ST with a winning attitude, believing what they are capable of doing. HOU will be a challenge hope they'll be mentally ready as well as physically.

Go Twins!

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Have seen lots of posts that talk about the more balanced schedule and there not being as many games against the Royales and Tigers.  But that is the same for all the teams in the Central.  So it won't have an effect on winning the Division.  Granted, it could make a difference for a wild card.

Also see talk about facing the Aces out there, Alcantara, Cole, etc.  If we are facing the Ace, there is a good chance we will also be facing the #4 or #5 guys.  With the Twins starting depth, I'll gladly put our #4, #5 and #1 up against others teams 4,5 and 1.

Another thing about discussions on the balanced schedule is that people tend to make it sound like all the games against the Royals and Tigers are turning into games against the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. We don't get to play the crappy teams in our division as much, but we get to play the crappy teams in other divisions more.

The Athletic did a pretty nice deep dive into the new schedule last week, and the difference in strength of schedule is pretty minimal. Using last year's team records on the new schedule has the Guardians, Dodgers, White Sox, and Padres as the 4 teams with the most additional games against winning teams. The Guardians at 14, Dodgers 11, and Sox and Pads at 8 games. But the Guardians and Dodgers still rank in the top 5 easiest schedules with just a .007 increase in opponent winning percentage. The new schedule isn't nearly as dramatic as people are acting.

[Cody Christie]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think that your "bad" will be that bad at all. And your "ugly" isn't going to be that bad. I feel pretty good about this team. Most of the time a game is lost in the mind before the game is even played. IMO we are a better team than NYY, I want our team come out of ST with a winning attitude, believing what they are capable of doing. HOU will be a challenge hope they'll be mentally ready as well as physically.

Go Twins!

Like I said in the article, I hope the Astros are dealing with a little bit of a World Series hangover and the Twins can be more competitive against them. They were dominated by Houston last season. 

[Trov]

No team is ever out of it in April, nor can they win the division in April.  I will agree starting off slow can be an issue, and it is likely they will not do well against the Astros or Yankees, as they never do, but even if they do, they will have plenty of time to right the ship. 

[Cris E]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Athletic did a pretty nice deep dive into the new schedule last week, and the difference in strength of schedule is pretty minimal. Using last year's team records on the new schedule has the Guardians, Dodgers, White Sox, and Padres as the 4 teams with the most additional games against winning teams. The Guardians at 14, Dodgers 11, and Sox and Pads at 8 games. But the Guardians and Dodgers still rank in the top 5 easiest schedules with just a .007 increase in opponent winning percentage. The new schedule isn't nearly as dramatic as people are acting.

I think part of the reason the Al Central teams see such a switch is how bad we were last year.  We looked bad and they play us less, but I expect us to be improved not only by roster changes and natural player growth but also in improved health. So fewer games against us makes the Guardians' schedule even easier than that analysis indicates. We'll see. It's going to be a much better year to watch baseball  in MN than 2022.

[August J Gloop]

2-8 in any 10 games is weird no matter who you play. HOU didn't go 6-0 against the Twins last year because they're a good team and the Twins were a bad one. It was just a fluke of baseball that they didn't wind up 2-4 in those 6 games. Two of the teams HOU had a losing record against were sub .500 teams. AND HOU went 11-10 in April on the way to 106 wins. 

And only one of those games even featured a starter from this year's rotation. That was Joe Ryan vs Verlander in JV's best start (maybe) of the year. While it's possible Winder will make a start or two, I doubt He's really being considered for a spot this year. 

The bigger point though is that April really isn't some unicorn month. Good teams can struggle in April and vice versa.  

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

The two AL Central teams worth noting, the Guardians and the White Sox, don't have cupcake schedules, either.

Chicago opens with a four game series in Houston, and they play 13 games against the AL East in April. They better pack a lunch if they want to be above .500 in May.

Cleveland has an easier April, but if Seattle is all that they are supposed to be, watch out. They open with 4 games in the Emerald City. Then host the Mariners for three more. Then the Yankees visit for three games. The rest of their schedule is relatively easy. What will Boston have? They end up April with four games at Fenway.

My prediction: Cleveland leads the division by two games on May Day, the Twins are in second, and Chicago is a game or two under .500.