Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #8 Jose Salas, INF

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I tend to agree with all the comments that this is premature and too high.  Let him prove himself before rating him above Wallner, Canterino, Varland or Martin.  

What has Canterino proven, that he can get injured? Martin has proven that he can't play SS or hit well enough to get promoted to AAA. Wallner has proven he can't play outfield and can strike out a ton.

Baseball teams are looking for ceiling in prospects. If they want certainty they can buy a free agent. I doubt you would find a GM  who would trade Salas for Wallner or Canterino. That's the way I look at prospects - would I trade this guy for that guy. I would absolutely trade a lower ceiling AAA player for a high ceiling recent draft pick.

[chpettit19]

I like the Polanco comp, and it'd be amazing if he reaches anywhere close to Polanco's career. I also see a lot of Brooks Lee in him. Even their swings look similar. Probably too big to stick at SS, but have the arm and general talent to move to 3B/2B and succeed. Good contact skills and pitch recognition, but questions on just how much power they'll develop. Salas with more speed at this point, though.

If Salas ends this season in AA as a 20 year old it'd certainly be worthy of a top 10 system ranking, and even worthy of the top 3 or 4 system ranking Fangraphs appears to have for him. He's hard to rank in this list because we just have so much more knowledge about the other guys as we've been following them far more closely. 19 years old and holding his own in A+ is nothing to sneeze at, though. You're talking about only a handful of guys a year who do that. That's a legit prospect. 

[DJL44]

Rankings from baseballtradevalues.com

1) Lee $38.9M

2) Lewis $22.7M

3) Rodriguez $19.7M

4) Julien $13.8M

5) Salas $13.6M

6) Martin $7.5M

7) Wallner $7.3M

8) Prielipp $5.9M

9) Woods-Richardson $5.4M

10) Canterino $5.3M

11) Varland $5.2M

12) Raya $5.1M

13) Mercedes $4.6M

14) Festa $4.3M

15) Miller $3.9M

16) Henriquez $2.7M

 

Everyone else is < $2.5M. I think they're low on Prielipp. They value a competitive balance pick at $6M and I'd definitely trade one of those for Prielipp, Woods-Richardson or Varland.

 

[DocBauer]

At this point, he's so new to the organization that all I know about him are things I've heard and read over about 3 weeks time. So at this point, sure, why not top 10? I see the frame and the projection. The speed appears excellent. He's reportedly got a good arm, which is great because it allows positional flexibility in the future. You can teach/coach someone to get better, but you can't teach/coach someone to suddenly be athletic.

I hadn't thought of the Polanco comps, but I can see it.

I probably would have dropped him a few spots out of the top 10 based on 2022 numbers, and distance from the ML. I just feel like i want to see a lottle more. But then again, that might just me not being as familiar with him as I am with other prospects. Really looking forward to following him this season.

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm happy to have him, but when the first positive mentioned is his 'speed' I think the rating might be oversold a bit, particularly in an organization that's philosophically opposed to stealing bases.

Hard to see how he can be higher than Varland, Wallner, Festa and Mercedes, this kind of seems like he got a bump due to shiny-new-toy syndrome.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

What has Canterino proven, that he can get injured? Martin has proven that he can't play SS or hit well enough to get promoted to AAA. Wallner has proven he can't play outfield and can strike out a ton.

Baseball teams are looking for ceiling in prospects. If they want certainty they can buy a free agent. I doubt you would find a GM  who would trade Salas for Wallner or Canterino. That's the way I look at prospects - would I trade this guy for that guy. I would absolutely trade a lower ceiling AAA player for a high ceiling recent draft pick.

We just have a lens.  I want to see players progressing towards MLB.  Wallner has shown he can hit in MLB.  You cannot complain about Wallner striking out if you support Gallo.  Canterino has been injured but has shown ability.  We will not drop Buxton, Larnach, Lewis, Kiriloff, Polanco because they have been injured so that is not a disqualifier.

[2wins87]

4 hours ago, jishfish said:

Maybe I'm looking through rose-colored lenses, but I look at Salas' profile and I see a lot of similarities to a player we're very familiar with -- Jorge Polanco.

Both switch-hitting SS who were always somewhat fringy to stay at the position defensively. It looks like Polanco was always pretty young for his level, similar to Salas, and neve hit more than 9 home runs during a season in his minor league career. Salas' strikeout rates are a little hit higher so probably not quite the same hit tool as Jorge, but also looks like he has some speed that Polanco doesn't have.

Probably optimistic, but I thought the similarities were interesting! 

I was thinking about Jorge Polanco too.  I think if Salas develops successfully he will be a pretty different player, but Polanco is the last successful switch hitter they've developed, and his development definitely had a few fits and starts.  Switch hitting seems to have become increasingly rare lately, so patience will be key.  I think this ranking makes sense given how young he is and the fact that he's refining two swings, I think we can expect a few adjustment periods.

If Lee and Salas both reach their potential (maybe even throw in Yunior Severino turning into a switch hitting masher) it could be a luxury to have several very good switch hitters in the lineup.  Even when Cleveland had basically nothing else in their lineup, the combination of Lindor, Ramirez, and Santana at the top was a gauntlet when they were all going well.  No was no real answer for an opposing manager.

[Heistyman]

Salas more than held his own against competition 2-3 yrs older with a 20% K rate and a 9% walk rate.  At 18 they expect the power to improve and he has tremendous bat speed.  The strong hit tool gives him a higher floor than most prospects.  Plus he is from a great baseball family with his dad and uncle playing professionally and his brother. The high baseball IQ probably helped with his great base running, swiping 33 of 34 stolen base attempts.

[Minny505]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think it's hard to push a prospect that is showing up in respected top 100 rankings (or just outside of it) much further down. ESPN has Salas at 94, for example. At his age, a lot of it is based on projection and he certainly has that. When you factor in his upside, it's hard to say there are 10 better prospects in the twins system than salas right now.

It's a little telling how much Twins fans overvalue their own prospects, the ones they are familiar with, over the prospects that are new to the system, when none of the guys ranked 4-7 on this list are likely getting any Top 100 prospect consideration anywhere, while at number 8 we have a guy who is on 2 or 3 of those lists.

Salas should probably be ranked at 4, right behind Rodriguez. I'd accept an argument that Julien and SWR should be above him due to proximity to The Show, putting him at 6th. 

But that's why these are fun...even if they are objectively incorrect 😜

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm happy to have him, but when the first positive mentioned is his 'speed' I think the rating might be oversold a bit, particularly in an organization that's philosophically opposed to stealing bases.

Hard to see how he can be higher than Varland, Wallner, Festa and Mercedes, this kind of seems like he got a bump due to shiny-new-toy syndrome.

Are the Twins philosophically opposed to stealing bases? Their minor league numbers don't look like it. And I'm not sure who in the majors should've been stealing more bases. I don't think they're philosophically opposed to it, I just don't think they've had major leaguers who can do it well enough to do it regularly. 

I can buy the Varland argument. Wallner makes sense being higher if you're more into certainty than ceiling (which is entirely fine). Don't know why Festa or Mercedes should be ahead of him, though. Festa is 3 years older than him at the same level (yes, Festa was better there, but 3 years is a lot). Mercedes hasn't even debuted in America so I really don't get the argument there. We should be thrilled if Mercedes is in A+ at 19 like Salas is.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

We just have a lens.  I want to see players progressing towards MLB.  Wallner has shown he can hit in MLB.  You cannot complain about Wallner striking out if you support Gallo.  Canterino has been injured but has shown ability.  We will not drop Buxton, Larnach, Lewis, Kiriloff, Polanco because they have been injured so that is not a disqualifier.

Isn't the natural flip side of this that you can't support Wallner if you complain about Gallo?

[gman]

It was interesting to see that he only played 41 games at shortstop in '22. Just 4 errors, but only 41 games. In '21, 45 games at shortstop with 17 errors. Quite an improvement, but he hasn't played a lot of shortstop yet.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm happy to have him, but when the first positive mentioned is his 'speed' I think the rating might be oversold a bit, particularly in an organization that's philosophically opposed to stealing bases.

Hard to see how he can be higher than Varland, Wallner, Festa and Mercedes, this kind of seems like he got a bump due to shiny-new-toy syndrome.

Which MLB player should have tried to steal more last year?

Or, most people are reading what others say, and going off that and it isn't "shiny new toy syndrome" whatever that is.

[Beast]

I’m a big fan of baseball prospectus.  If he’s good enough for their top 100, I’d probably have him a little higher on the list.

But, the offensive returns seem a little light and we really know nothing about the guy coming from the Marlins system.  So, it’s hard to argue with his placement here.

I can’t get behind putting him behind a guy like Wallner or Martin, as mentioned above.  This is a prospect ranking, not current skill set ranking.  I don’t look at Wallner, Martin, Canterino and see a high ceiling.  I see a couple guys we hope develop into serviceable roll players and have no real defensive home.  Salas has more potential than some 25 year old college guys with extremely checkered track records, whether due to performance or injury.

If you’re one that hated the Joey Gallo signing, not sure how you can simultaneously be higher on Wallner than a guy like Salas.  Joey Gallo with no defense is probably the highest reaches of Wallner’s ceiling.

[joefish]

He had a 5 hit game once(good) and that means what? There is room for growth?

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Isn't the natural flip side of this that you can't support Wallner if you complain about Gallo?

Nope.  Wallner - minor league - 299/435/597 Witchita, 247/376/463 ST Paul.  GALLO 160/159/162 were his batting averages for the three teams he played for last year.  I do not even want to go further in this comparison.  Wallner has potential to be good, Gallo has proven who he is. 

[Shaitan]

honest question: Are minor league errors called as arbitrarily and MLB errors?

I'm hearing consensus that his defense needs work so I'll believe it.

But errors, at the MLB level anyway, are kind of a useless stat.

[Shaitan]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm happy to have him, but when the first positive mentioned is his 'speed' I think the rating might be oversold a bit, particularly in an organization that's philosophically opposed to stealing bases.

Hard to see how he can be higher than Varland, Wallner, Festa and Mercedes, this kind of seems like he got a bump due to shiny-new-toy syndrome.

Huh? Why would the MLB Twins' current base stealing philosophy be relevant to how good of a prospect he is? 

Besides that, speed is helpful in all aspects of the game. Not just base stealing.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Nope.  Wallner - minor league - 299/435/597 Witchita, 247/376/463 ST Paul.  GALLO 160/159/162 were his batting averages for the three teams he played for last year.  I do not even want to go further in this comparison.  Wallner has potential to be good, Gallo has proven who he is. 

I get that you don't want to go further with the comparison. Because it's a terrible comparison if you have hope in Wallner, but don't like Gallo.

You want to use Wallner's minor league numbers and compare them to Gallo's worst season in the majors. Yikes. The chances of Wallner ever making an all star team are miniscule. Gallo has made 2. You don't like Gallo striking out, but you're ok with Wallner having a 30+% K rate in the minors? Come on. And Wallner brings negative defensive value. Wallner is hoping and praying to be half the MLB player Gallo has been. Whether you like it or not.

[se7799]

7 hours ago, Minny505 said:

It's a little telling how much Twins fans overvalue their own prospects, the ones they are familiar with, over the prospects that are new to the system, when none of the guys ranked 4-7 on this list are likely getting any Top 100 prospect consideration anywhere, while at number 8 we have a guy who is on 2 or 3 of those lists.

Salas should probably be ranked at 4, right behind Rodriguez. I'd accept an argument that Julien and SWR should be above him due to proximity to The Show, putting him at 6th. 

But that's why these are fun...even if they are objectively incorrect 😜

Well said.  I know others think he got a bump for being new to our system.  But I feel fans would and do have him lower and subtract .because he is not asknown to us as other stated prospects.  While the national pundits seem to like him more than many TD posters.  I believe he will earn this ranking and more this year.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Nope.  Wallner - minor league - 299/435/597 Witchita, 247/376/463 ST Paul.  GALLO 160/159/162 were his batting averages for the three teams he played for last year.  I do not even want to go further in this comparison.  Wallner has potential to be good, Gallo has proven who he is. 

Please can we stop comparing Wallner and Gallo (I hated the signing),  Gallo got more major league action as a 21 year old than Wallner did as a 24 year old. Gallo was an all star his age 25 season, Wallner is unlikely to make the opening day roster at age 25. 

IMO Wallner isn't even a prospect (or barely is one) anymore, he is 25, sure he can make some tweaks here and there to be better, but you just don't see players this age transforming into something different than what they are. Which is the same reason I hated the Gallo signing, he is 28 and getting worse.

[chpettit19]

For what it's worth, Keith Law has Salas #5 in the Twins system. Behind E Rod, Lee, Lewis, and Martin (in that order).

[mikelink45]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I get that you don't want to go further with the comparison. Because it's a terrible comparison if you have hope in Wallner, but don't like Gallo.

You want to use Wallner's minor league numbers and compare them to Gallo's worst season in the majors. Yikes. The chances of Wallner ever making an all star team are miniscule. Gallo has made 2. You don't like Gallo striking out, but you're ok with Wallner having a 30+% K rate in the minors? Come on. And Wallner brings negative defensive value. Wallner is hoping and praying to be half the MLB player Gallo has been. Whether you like it or not.

What I like about these prospect rankings is the dialogues that it generates.  Even though you and I are on opposite sides of the globe on this debate, it is still fun and I look forward each day to the comments and even the criticisms.  So even though you are wrong, thanks for the give and take. 

[Fatbat]

4 errors at SS in 46 games as a 20yr old in A ball. I’d say thats solid defense.  Im stoked for this kid!! The big show is going to be full of pure athletes from 2025 on…. 

[MinnInPa]

sorry..cant get too excited about a player that only hits .250 in A ball...get back to us in 4 years or so and see how he progresses.. he may or may not pan out... may be a useful average MLBer.. we need All Star caliber players...time will tell if he is that

[Elliot]

On 2/8/2023 at 7:59 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

From all that’s been published, he appears to be a “tweener” defensively and, at the moment, would rank no better than fifth or sixth among potential Twins SSs (Correa, Lewis, Miller, Lee and possibly Martin).  With his speed, the outfield may beckon.

With no outstanding defensive home, he will need to develop his plate skills fairly dramatically to earn a role going forward on the big club.

There are basically 2 types of players who have no defensive home. One group is those who really can not play any defensive position well and are totally dependent on their offensive abilities to succeed at the MLB level. Brent Rooker, Kennys Vargas, and probably Aaron Sabato are examples of those whose bats will not carry them.  David Ortiz is one where it could and did. The other group is those who have the skills to play the most challenging defensive positions at the minor league or high school/college level but fall a little short of being able to handle it at the MLB level. Many position players start out at SS because they are the most skilled athletes on the team. As the competition increases and bodies develop, some players (Gary Sheffield, Miguel Sano) move to other, less demanding positions. Others continue at SS with the hope that they can provide at least average defense at the most demanding defensive position (other than catcher) on the field. If their bats continue to produce, these type of players become tremendous assets, either as super utility players (Chris Taylor, Trea Turner, ...); or eventually as full time at SS or other positions where they provide defensive value. 

Bottom line - prospects like Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and Jose Salas are the gold in the Twins minor league system. They can't all be the Twins starting shortstop, but my guess is there is an all star, gold glove 3B, 2B, or CF in the group. They are kept at SS thru the minor league progression because, outside of a potential ace SP or possibly a high end offensive/defensive catcher, there is no greater trade chip than a decent SS who can hit.

[nicksaviking]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which MLB player should have tried to steal more last year?

Or, most people are reading what others say, and going off that and it isn't "shiny new toy syndrome" whatever that is.

It was just him being the new guy in town that I thought people were grabbing on to.

Honestly though, reading through the whole thread, everybody has started to sell me on him him more. My recollection of how the GOOD Twins players handled A ball seems to be inflated upon further research. I thought anyone who ended up being decent put up an easy .800+ OPS in A ball. Seems that wasn't always the case. I'm in on Salas.

[KBJ1]

Judging from the recent success of Miranda & Lewis, Salas looks right on schedule.

2 years ago Lewis was looking like a failed prospect and no one even had Miranda on the radar. 

Last year Lewis looked like a budding Superstar (until the idiots played him out of position) and Miranda has proven he belongs.

Maybe we will be saying  Louis who in a couple of years?

Martin needs to get it in gear this year. 

[bbmoen82]

Good content. Looking forward to him developing and the Twins finding a home for him amongst the infield in the years to come.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, bbmoen82 said:

Good content. Looking forward to him developing and the Twins finding a home for him amongst the infield in the years to come.

Welcome to TD