Are Twins' Third Base Plans for Jose Miranda a Misstep?

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, roger said:

Did you ever see Henry Aaron bat?  Especially when he was younger?

Right. Aaron said it was all about the wrists. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

An interesting trend I'm seeing in the comments is that bulk doesn't equal power.

Alex - it is bat speed and wrist strength. Two guys who have identical bat speed  and wrist strength ... the edge goes to the guy who is bigger and stronger. However, there have been and still are plenty of smaller guys who smoke the ball (Altuve) Look up Jimmy Wynn, the Toy Cannon. who played for the Houston Colt .45's/Astros. He could hit any ball as far Sano, Gallo, Judge, or Stanton. Harmon Killebrew was 5-11 (generous) and 180 for the first decade of his career. He was what was once referred to as "strong". 

Oh, it always helps if you can square up the ball.

[walkstar89]

4 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

An interesting trend I'm seeing in the comments is that bulk doesn't equal power. I would argue it's heavily correlated at the very least, Buxton is an outlier as a more wiry power hitter but it was also documented he bulked up to try and improve his health and his power numbers took a step forward. It's just weird to lose weight and hit more homers and doubles or maintain the same production.

Again, I want to emphasize I love Miranda and I love his bat. I hope we are taking this course of action because it is best for Jose Miranda and we aren't just trying to fill a need.

I appreciate all of your comments, spring training is around the corner and I'm excited to see what this team can do. Lots of fun storylines to follow and I know we'll all be a little happier with some sunshine and baseball.

Go Twins! 

I think an important distinction here when we talk about "bulk" is whether Miranda lost fat or muscle or both. It's not like Miranda is suddenly showing up at camp weighing 170 pounds. He's still a big guy, he just lost fat and is in better shape. If anything, that should only help his power. If a 250 pound player lost 60 pounds of muscle and became a distance runner, than yes, I'd worry about his power. But clearly, thats not whats happening here. Whether or not he improves at 3rd base, I think his being in better shape can only help his power and hitting as the season goes on

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

For me, the sports psychology aspect of this has the most impact. I don't think a certain player type of player is more likely to slump in year two because realistically their ability is what it is. They can train and improve on things obviously but everyone at the end of the day has a finite amount of baseball ability. If they did it once they should be able to do it again barring their body's physical ability to perform the task.

So think of it like this- A rookie player has a nice year or even a spectacular year and they're in the trenches of the season and they get to the finish line of a long season and it's a bit of a blur. 

They're now out of the trenches, they're proud of what they accomplish (rightfully so) then expectations for the follow up creep in. Whether it comes from coaches, family/friends or most likely themselves. It's a lot of pressure to do more when realistically you just want to keep doing the same thing and naturally progress and build on what you did.

Some guys deal with imposter syndrome as well. That's a very powerful thing, where players lose confidence because maybe they think they over achieved.

Players have a ton of resources now and are much better equipped to handle the mental strain of a season or new expectations but it's hard. I think the sophomore slump is very real from a mental performance stand point.

You see it with teams in general as well. We saw it with the White Sox last year and the Orioles are a candidate to battle this as well. Sometimes wanting it too much can get in your way. New expectations are hard to deal with but not impossible.

The superstition of it I do not believe. The sports psychology piece, yes very much so. The human mind's impact on performance is endlessly fascinating, I could go on and on but I should limit my ramblings haha.

There are factors, to be sure. Something that is a major part of any players's career is adjustment. Players receive far more attention after their first big year and must adjust to how their opponent has changed towards them. Respect is sometimes slow to earn. If I can get you out using the same pitch, you will never see my other pitches even if the pitch you miss is my worst offering. The game has many factors and many are intellectual, particularly the acceptance of failure.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

7 hours ago, Dave Lemke said:

I dont see why a lot of people seem to think first base is a place to put an inept defensive player. Having played first myself it is not as easy as some people make it out to be. 

Agree - I felt like it took Joe Mauer about a year and a half to become a really good first baseman. Also, thank you for becoming a Twins Daily caretaker!! 

If others haven't yet,  click here

[Alex Boxwell]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'm still a little confused Alex.  Are you saying that the Twins are negatively impacting his power by playing him at 3B but if they played him at say 1B he would be fine power wise?

Or are you saying that Miranda negatively impacted his power by losing weight?

It sounds like you are saying both but I am not sure.

Mostly, I think the motivation to trim down was improving his ability to play 3rd. Whether that came from upstairs or was his personal motivation to try and be a high-money guy by playing third. The trimming down then would limit his power potential in theory. There is a few cases where little guys hit homers but typically when you trim down you lose a little pop. The trade-off isn't worth it since he has shown poorly at 3rd. I'd like to see us put him in the best scenario possible to succeed with that bat.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Alex Boxwell said:

I'd like to see us put him in the best scenario possible to succeed with that bat.

I think everyone wants to see Miranda put in the best possible position to succeed. He will DH some. The Twins likely feel that Miranda is a better player at third base and he is more comfortable there as well. 

[DocBauer]

I don't know that I've ever said this before, but I don't "get" the intent of the OP, unless it's just to ask/express personal concerns. And that's fine. But I guess I really have to disagree with the premise of such consternation. 

Miranda is a 3B by trade/experience. He now gers to concentrate on his normal position. What says he can't be OK, or better, or get better? Just Twins history, and nobody else, there is a long list of 3B who were average at best before actually getting better with work and experience. He had barely played 1B before being asked to do so in 2022. He made some bad mistakes. But he got better. Personally, I ignore most all defensive metrics for a rookie playing put of position in his debut.

Secondly, as many have stated, and I echo, what on earth is wrong with him losing fat, gaining muscle, and getting in better shape? It can only lead to a quicker swing, (possibly MORE power, not less), greater flexibility on defense, and more endurance for a long season...something Miranda himself was open enough to question. The "he looks sexy" comments are funny on the surface, but speak to hard work and dedication to be the best Miranda can be. I kinda doubt he turned in to some 185lb junior Mr Olympia body builder.

No matter how well he actually plays 3B...and I'd eagerly accept solid/average...I do expect him to end up as a 1B/3B/DH in the future. What's wrong with that? Lewis, Lee, and Julien all look like legitimate DUDES. There's a good chance Lee or Lewis will just be better 3B options on a daily basis in the near future. Julien as probably more of an "Arraez" type of utility player who is in the lineup daily but at different spots. Miranda would NOT be a "bad player" because he has a great bat and can play 2 positions and also DH. But for NOW, he's the 3B. Isn't a team supposed to play their best players and find the best spot(s) for them? 

And then there is the retrospect discussion of Urshela, I guess. I like him. And MAYBE the Twins have overplayed their hand in the whole Kepler situation. (Different topic, different day). I would have been fine in keeping Urshela if the roster construction made sense. But right now, who do you cut to make room for him and his 1yr deal knowing he wouldn't be back? You keep him for 1yr and $9M in case Kirilloff isn't ready? You keep him to put Larnach in AAA? You keep him instead of acquiring the similar bat and far more versatile Farmer...which was basically the initial trade off, no pun intended...who I want to say has 2yrs of control?

Urshela doesn't "fit" the construction of the team at this point. The OF depth/abundance seems messy until you examine the flexibility of the roster for contingency options. And that INCLUDES letting Miranda play his natural 3B position to maximize roster and lineup construction. 

A better built, more in shape, Miranda is a good thing, for him and the Twins. And Miranda eventually possibly/probably turning in to 2 position and DH is NOT a bad thing. But for roster construction for 2023, the "sexy" Miranda at 3B is correct.

[nclahammer]

I haven't seen anything in writing that says the Twins wanted to make Miranda more trim and lose weight.  I applaud Miranda for taking the intiative himself.  He's capable at 3B and has looked alright there in the minors & majors.  Give the kid a chance.

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This site. Wow. Just. Wow. 

I do not know what happened to observable articles, but pure negativity seems to have taken over much of the writing. Speculation on a guy’s weight is a story. Never mind there was mainstream reporting last summer that Correa was telling Miranda he has to eat better and work out more. If Miranda looks less pudgy than he used to it would appear he followed the advice given. The answer is not in this blog

[miracleb]

The more you can "fit" players into skill positions, the stronger the team will be.  We have 6-7 players who "can play" 1st base (or DH.)  Adding Miranda to that list doesn't help the line up.

[Riverbrian]

My Wife and I were driving back from the Twin Cities. After a fuel stop, I made a mistake, I accidentally got on to I-94 EAST bound when needing to go WEST bound to North Dakota. 

My wife wasn't happy with me. Her level of concern over this mistake left me with the impression that she must have been thinking that we would have to drive around the entire world now to get to North Dakota. 

I hit the next exit, turned around, corrected the mistake and everything was fine. 

 

 

[dxpavelka]

When / if the young guns arrive there's still gonna be a DH spot available.  Sounds like a good landing spot for a guy with defensive concerns.  Just sayin

[IndianaTwin]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

…At least, I never heard of anyone eating chocolate to get stronger and hit more homers….

 

Dang. Is that what I’ve been doing wrong? Next you’re probably going to say it doesn’t help my jump shot either!

[Major League Ready]

11 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

When / if the young guns arrive there's still gonna be a DH spot available.  Sounds like a good landing spot for a guy with defensive concerns.  Just sayin

If he proves he can play an average 3B, and Lewis / Lee and eventually Salis prove to be even better, Miranda's value might be greatest as a trade chip.  That won't happen until he reached his arbitration years but it's OK to produce so many good players that you have to trade one every now and then.  

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, darin617 said:

Any way you  look at this situation it seems like the Twins are doing everything wrong here. If they expect Lee to be 3rd baseman next season they should have left Miranda at 1st base now. I don't think it makes much sense to keep moving a player back and forth between positions like this. Leave him in one place and let him be. 

Moving around the diamond totally ruined Harmon Killebrew's career. 😉

[Riverbrian]

47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If he proves he can play an average 3B, and Lewis / Lee and eventually Salis prove to be even better, Miranda's value might be greatest as a trade chip.  That won't happen until he reached his arbitration years but it's OK to produce so many good players that you have to trade one every now and then.  

Absolutely.

Having too many players is never a problem.

Every club should strive for having too many players. 

No club should ever purposely get in the way of not reaching that goal. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

13 hours ago, roger said:

Did you ever see Henry Aaron bat?  Especially when he was younger?

Hank Aaron is exactly who I also thought of after reading Alex's interesting comment about bulk and power.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Well, it is an unpopular position on the TD, but, yes, in hindsight with us moving on from Arraez, our best lineup would have had Urshela at 3B and Miranda at 1B (and Farmer at utility!). If Kiriloff is indeed healthy, we could have skipped the entire Gallo thing and had him play OF/DH with Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, Kepler and Taylor. 

But that ship has sailed.  It looks like Miranda gets 3B to at least start the year.  But 1B looks like more of a long-term better fit for two reasons: 1) his defensive upside is probably higher at 1B and 2) we have two other players coming up better suited for 3B (Lewis or Lee).

We shall see how things play out this year (including with Polanco), but I must admit I’m salivating over an infield/DH mix of Lewis, Correa, Lee, Miranda and Julien. All five of those players starting in ‘24 should be in the lineup essentially everyday and batting in the top six of the lineup with Buxton.
 

 

 

Maybe Kirilof in the mix in ‘24 with DH & 1B capabilities?

[Trov]

I have many issues with this article.  First, you label him a 5 tool hitting prospect, but he is not.  He could be an elite hitter, but the 5 tools includes speed and defense.  Miranda, as you point out, lacks those 2.  Also, dropping weight is not due to him losing muscle, but losing body fat, which will increase his possible power and ability.  Just because he is slimmer does not mean he will have less power.  I mean look what being overweight did for Sano, it was not a good outcome. 

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

His defensive metrics stunk whether he was at third or at first.  b-r.com's defensive WAR for him is overall negative and he spent many more innings at first, so moving to first was no cure-all, which I think matches the eye-test.

I see people use "defensive WAR" and that's always a trigger for me that they're not using the information correctly. I honestly wish baseball reference would do away with the dWAR column because it is used wrong by almost everyone.

If you want to look at how baseball reference views Miranda's defense you need to go to the columns that list Rtot and Rdrs. Rtot is his total zone defense which was -1 at 1B and -3 at 3B. Rdrs is defensive runs saved - a different metric - which lists Miranda at -6 at 1B and 0 at 3B. He has very little data to go on, but if you project out his numbers using Rtot/yr or Rds/yr you get one system saying he is average at first base but 15 runs below average at third, the other system says he's average at 3B and 12 runs below average at first. The truth is probably somewhere in between. It's very unusual for someone who is below average at 1B to be good at 3B. Miranda is likely to be 0 to 10 runs below average as a third baseman with +5 to -15 possible.

[Otaknam]

Urshela is a solid player but was a place holder for the team. We don’t know if Miranda is a finished product at third, so it makes sense to find out. Lewis is in the wings and can play third if needed, and they will figure it out. Multiple options at third is a good problem to have. 

[IndianaTwin]

After the joy Bartolo brought to our lives, can we agree to call Miranda “Little Sexy”?

[Nashvilletwin]

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Maybe Kirilof in the mix in ‘24 with DH & 1B capabilities?

Agree, with Miranda primarily at 1B, there should be plenty of ABs for Kiriloff in a secondary role there, plus at DH and corner OF.

[Byrdman]

Our infield for 2024 will be this:

Lewis-3B, Correa-SS, Lee-2nd, Kirilliof-1B and Miranda DH/1B/3B

Polonco will probably be traded in the 23 offseason.

Martin will likely be traded at this years deadline for bullpen arms. 

Julien will just be a bat first player and likely traded in the next year or two. 

We will need starters next year and couple trades will be needed. Unless we can extend Gray, Mahle & Meade. I can see the twins extending 2 of these guys. Maybe only one just depends on how they pitch this year. 

[Alex Boxwell]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

I do not know what happened to observable articles, but pure negativity seems to have taken over much of the writing. Speculation on a guy’s weight is a story. Never mind there was mainstream reporting last summer that Correa was telling Miranda he has to eat better and work out more. If Miranda looks less pudgy than he used to it would appear he followed the advice given. The answer is not in this blog

The last thing I want to be is coming across as negative. I apologize if I hurt your feelings. It was just meant to be a conversation, I don't believe I was speaking in absolutes at any point in the article besides noting the pattern of bigger individuals typically hitting for more power. I appreciate your feedback, however.

[saviking]

Whoa! Knocking Maranda for getting in better shape? Do we even know how much weight he lost? Funny thing about muscle mass, you can lose 10 pounds and be bigger and stronger. And you can have better bat speed. 

Hard for me to knock Miranda for trying to address his biggest weakness, range and arm strength at third base. I reserve judgment until I see how he does in spring training. Remember, this was a guy that batted .330 in the minors. If he can bat .300 in the majors what says he has to be an all star fielding third baseman to be a big asset to the team.

[Launch Angle]

This is a terrible take. Losing fat is going to make Miranda a worse player? Just garbage. Adding muscle and reducing fat will help increase speed/lateral movement and power. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

14 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

Mostly, I think the motivation to trim down was improving his ability to play 3rd. Whether that came from upstairs or was his personal motivation to try and be a high-money guy by playing third. The trimming down then would limit his power potential in theory. There is a few cases where little guys hit homers but typically when you trim down you lose a little pop. The trade-off isn't worth it since he has shown poorly at 3rd. I'd like to see us put him in the best scenario possible to succeed with that bat.

Thanks for clarifying Alex.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Byrdman said:

Polonco will probably be traded in the 23 offseason.

You may be correct in your guess, but going into his last year of a contract the trade value would be a lower prospect. Polanco will not have peak trade value for sure.

All of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda will (should) have trade value and maybe Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers will have rebuilt their trade value as well. Then there are guys like Austin (you mentioned), Julien, Salas, Gordon, and who knows that may be used for trades.

If the Twins want to add a substantial player/pitcher it will need to be from those in the paragraph above, because guys like Kepler and Polanco have gone past the time when they had high trade value. Oh, I also am not opposed to seeing Polanco for five more years if he is healthy. Naturally, health drives all careers.