Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #9 Louie Varland, RHP

[JD-TWINS]

93MPH is fine if you can PITCH! Moving the ball - throwing strikes - getting guys out.

Varland is a 4th-5th MLB starter now for a whole bunch of teams. If he can eat innings and stays healthy, he’s on the staff for good starting in ‘24.

2024 Pitching Staff - Starters:

Lopez - Mahle (assuming health) - Ryan - Varland - Paddock ………maybe Maeda as a long reliever in ‘24………..another prospect that has a nice year  in ‘23 may displace Mahle or Maeda depending upon our ability to sign either of them.

9th prospect is in the mix!

[Dman]

9 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

There are plenty of additional comparisons you could make though.

Funderburk was a year older, and a third of his innings came in relief.  He pitched 5 or more innings in only 6 outings compared to 26 outings for Varland (including in his 5 major league starts).

Varland's stint in AA was also his high water mark for ERA and FIP for any minor league level/season, so he does have a stronger overall track record vs Funderburk.

Probably you are right that Funderburk has been vastly underappreciated, because he has generally put up strong numbers throughout the minors.  I don't know a ton about his stuff, but I think he doesn't show up on lists for the same reason that Laweryson isn't a top 10 prospect.  He's succeeded with some deception and pitchability, despite not having amazing velocity or a carrying pitch.  Probably his role in the majors would be a crafty lefty reliever, which is a lot different than Varland who so far has demonstrated that he could be a starter.

Yep I agree with you.  I don't think he has great fastball velocity and I know literally nothing about his secondary stuff.  I just thought it a bit odd that the numbers at the exact same level and same time could be so close and they are rated vastly different.  If Seth reads this maybe he can fill me in.  Thanks for the well thought out response!

[Nashvilletwin]

24 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

2024 Pitching Staff - Starters:

Lopez - Mahle (assuming health) - Ryan - Varland - Paddock ………maybe Maeda as a long reliever in ‘24………..another prospect that has a nice year  in ‘23 may displace Mahle or Maeda depending upon our ability to sign either of them.

9th prospect is in the mix!

We will see if we extend any of Mahle, Gray or Maeda (if we are not contending, at least one - most likely Gray- gets traded by the deadline). But I forgot about Paddock in my comment above.

So even if we do not extend any of those three and before we add anyone else, right now for ‘24 we have:  Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober, Winder, SWR and Varland with at least Prielipp, Canterino and Balazovic waiting in the wings.  If we play our cards right and develop some of these young pitchers over ‘23, we can have a pretty darn good, deep and cheap staff starting in ‘24.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We will see if we extend any of Mahle, Gray or Maeda (if we are not contending, at least one - most likely Gray- gets traded by the deadline). But I forgot about Paddock in my comment above.

So even if we do not extend any of those three and before we add anyone else, right now for ‘24 we have:  Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober, Winder, SWR and Varland with at least Prielipp, Canterino and Balazovic waiting in the wings.  If we play our cards right and develop some of these young pitchers over ‘23, we can have a pretty darn good, deep and cheap staff starting in ‘24.

If I was the GM (thankfully for all, I am not)....I'd not extend one starter, and use that money to sign Nola (if he's still a FA). 

Nola, Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, et. al. looks like a pretty good rotation to me.

[Rosterman]

Not ALL pitchers have to throw hard and get those K's. It is nice to have a mix (and especially in the bullpen, a ground-ball pitcher, and one that can give you, say, routine fly outs).

Which is also WHY I was ssad to see Devin Smeltzer depart. He was not only a lefty, but is a guy you could surround with hard throwers and use either as a long man out of the pen between hard throwers, or as that mix-em'-up-rotation arm. And the guy did give the Twins innings.

You want in your rotation someone who can start 30-32 games. Throw more than 150 innings (preferably more). There is soemthing about the ability to put a "ball into play" and not just throw balls and strikes while the guys in the field lok at the clouds.

[DocBauer]

Not surprised he needs to refine his secondary stuff a bit more. I think you could say that about most any young pitcher making his debut. And how much he refines those pitches will determine how high of a ceiling he has.

Very impressed to go from 15th round pick to the majors in a relatively short timeliness, with steady progress throughout. What I really liked was the quick pace and composure on the mound, especially with a solid debut at Yankees stadium. Wow!

Don't know how good he MIGHT be, but I also believe he's in the 2023 rotation. Hopefully at the back end because the front end is so strong. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If I was the GM (thankfully for all, I am not)....I'd not extend one starter, and use that money to sign Nola (if he's still a FA). 

Nola, Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, et. al. looks like a pretty good rotation to me.

You already know that's by ideal scenario.  They are going to drop over $40M from the current salary level and that's assuming they keep Thielber and Jorge Lopez.  I will be pulling hard for these young pitchers to make the jump.  Shohei Ohtani and Julio Urias are free agents too.  We are not going to land them but it's good they will be there to absorb some of the available payroll from the top markets.  Severino will be available too and the wildcard is Blake Snell.  He found it again the last couple months of 2022 so he might be in the mix too.  Mahle if healthy would be a good consolation prize.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You already know that's by ideal scenario.  They are going to drop over $40M from the current salary level and that's assuming they keep Thielber and Jorge Lopez.  I will be pulling hard for these young pitchers to make the jump.  Shohei Ohtani and Julio Urias are free agents too.  We are not going to land them but it's good they will be there to absorb some of the available payroll from the top markets.  Severino will be available too and the wildcard is Blake Snell.  He found it again the last couple months of 2022 so he might be in the mix too.  Mahle if healthy would be a good consolation prize.

Oh, ya, I'm blatantly stealing your idea here. 

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm a believer. I think he's a legit number three, four, starter right now. He'll be in the rotation full time next year.

Me too, but we need to keep our skis beneath us. Varland at #5, Ryan at #4, Paddack at #3, Lopez at #2, and Corbin Burnes at #1 sounds really good. Until then, I think the Twins have a good staff for this year and it should be fun to watch our guys pitch this year.

[Nick Nelson]

Lots of good discussion here of velocity for pitching prospects and how much weight we give it. (Too much? Maybe.)

If you want a super duper optimistic comp, here's one: Shane Bieber. He also was not super highly drafted (albeit 4th round not 15th). He also didn't show up on any global top prospects lists, despite putting up ridiculous numbers in the minors. He was #5 in the Cleveland system, per BP, ahead of his rookie season. Two years later he was in MVP contention. Last year Bieber put up a 2.88 ERA with a fastball that averaged like 91 MPH.

Obviously it helps to have the Guardians pitching development juggernaut but, so far so good with the Twins and Varland, whose "coachability" is a standout trait that gets talked about all the time.

 

[Beast]

A lot are concerned about 1-2 mph on his fastball (if he threw 95-96 instead of 93-94 we’d be calling it plus velocity).  There are more factors that make a fastball good than just velocity.  We see it with Joe Ryan.  So, I don’t think we need to break out the Greg Maddox, and the handful of other slow tossing outliers throughout the years.  If we’re banking on him turning into a guy like that, he’s in trouble.  There are very few guys at any given time that thrive with well below average fastballs.  As another poster mentioned above - his is just fine.

The concern is the secondary stuff.  You can’t get by on a fastball alone.  Whatever the speed.  Guys eat 100 mph fastballs for breakfast.

I’m optimistic he’ll be a serviceable back end guy.  Which is just fine.

 

[Blyleven2011]

I like what I have seen so far  ....

His hard work  and his great composure on the mound has worked so far , alittle more hard work  controlling the strike zone and developing his secondary pitches in AAA and he will give us some years in a twins uniform  ...

 

[Parker Hageman]

Quote

Varland's fastball plays up due to his extension and deceptive release point, and he's added a ton since his college days, but it still averages under 94 MPH, placing it on the lower side of today's MLB spectrum.

I think his late season MLB fastball velocity is a little deceiving. He was mostly upper 9s in the minors over the last couple years. I would bet he would average ~96 with a fresh arm portion of the season included. 

The other thing about his is that he's got the fastball characteristics that the Twins covet. It's something that they really like as an org. 

 

[DocBauer]

55 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Lots of good discussion here of velocity for pitching prospects and how much weight we give it. (Too much? Maybe.)

If you want a super duper optimistic comp, here's one: Shane Bieber. He also was not super highly drafted (albeit 4th round not 15th). He also didn't show up on any global top prospects lists, despite putting up ridiculous numbers in the minors. He was #5 in the Cleveland system, per BP, ahead of his rookie season. Two years later he was in MVP contention. Last year Bieber put up a 2.88 ERA with a fastball that averaged like 91 MPH.

Obviously it helps to have the Guardians pitching development juggernaut but, so far so good with the Twins and Varland, whose "coachability" is a standout trait that gets talked about all the time.

 

Something I've stated over and over again, how many true ACES or #1 starters were drafted as such, hit the ML level, and were just that #1 from day ONE?

For every Clemons, there was a Randy Johnson who took time to get it right. For every Gooden, there was a Jimmy Key. 

I'm NOT comparing Varland in ANY WAY to great HOF pitchers! I'm just saying, it's just impossible to predict who will become a top of the rotation SP that is special. Remember when Santana was a rule 5 pick and trade for agreement? Did anyone feel the Twins got a steal? Nope. He was a milb rule 5 trade agreement who got his feet wet in the pen and then moved to the rotation and became a Cy Young winner and borderline HOF pitcher. 

But the Twins should draft one or go out and trade for one? PLEASE!

[Seth Stohs]

I watched quite a few Varland starts last year. Early in the season, I remember seeing his fastball 92-95 and touching 96... I know when it warmed up, he threw a little harder. 

We probably value velocity a little bit too much in terms of upside for pitching. And for good reason. It's probably even something that matters when we have to rank prospects because it's a real number. 

I ranked him #8 but I could argue as high as 4 or 5. 

[sun]

I don't know if Varland is absolutely ready or not, but he's fun to watch and seems to get results. If Joe Ryan weren't traded to the Twins then he would have been stuck in AAA which would have been a loss for MLB. Since Varland seems to be an effective enough pitcher then the Twins should find room for him to pitch. If he's close enough to his peak now then winning is up to his personal discipline & fortitude. That's what baseball is about, a team sport where will overcomes the opponent. The Twins should cut out the hanky panky and let him play ball! Maybe his durability & others injuries will  be the deciding factor that gives Varland his big break sooner rather than later. After all he's a hometown favorite. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, sun said:

I don't know if Varland is absolutely ready or not, but he's fun to watch and seems to get results. If Joe Ryan weren't traded to the Twins then he would have been stuck in AAA which would have been a loss for MLB. Since Varland seems to be an effective enough pitcher then the Twins should find room for him to pitch. If he's close enough to his peak now then winning is up to his personal discipline & fortitude. That's what baseball is about, a team sport where will overcomes the opponent. The Twins should cut out the hanky panky and let him play ball! Maybe his durability & others injuries will  be the deciding factor that gives Varland his big break sooner rather than later. After all he's a hometown favorite. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

Right now, who would you bet on being more successful in 2023: Varland or Mahle, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Lopez? Which one of those guys are you dropping from the rotation to let Varland "play ball!"?

Varland only has 5 solid starts in MLB, 4 starts in AAA, options left, and work remaining on his offspeed pitches. Being a "hometown favorite" (btw, he pitched DII and few people knew who he was until the twins drafted him) is a bad reason to value a player over others. he should start in AAA. He'll get opportunities this season and likely be in the rotation full-time no later than 2024 if he continues to perform.

 

[sun]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Right now, who would you bet on being more successful in 2023: Varland or Mahle, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Lopez? Which one of those guys are you dropping from the rotation to let Varland "play ball!"?

Varland only has 5 solid starts in MLB, 4 starts in AAA, options left, and work remaining on his offspeed pitches. Being a "hometown favorite" (btw, he pitched DII and few people knew who he was until the twins drafted him) is a bad reason to value a player over others. he should start in AAA. He'll get opportunities this season and likely be in the rotation full-time no later than 2024 if he continues to perform.

 

No one needs to be dropped, not even Ober. They all just need to be properly managed to maximize their opportunities because some will have misfires and/or injuries. Starting pitchers can be platooned instead of parading the same tired bullpen onto the field every night because the starters don't last. Sometimes 2 starters can pitch one complete game instead of watching some of the same circus acts like Pagan blow games.

It's mostly a matter of scheduling management and thinking outside of the box. If the fans need to wait for Varland then they need to wait. But maybe having more starters will cut down on injuries to Mahle and the rest. Who really knows how effective any of our starters will be? At least we know Varland's arrow is pointing up & that he seems to already be effective & durable.. The best players are the ones who are available and not out with injuries. Maybe having more starters can give Rocco better options than working with a larger bullpen, & can help to win more games. Maybe Varland can be an option for platooning starters as needed.

[tony&rodney]

Mahle and Maeda are coming back from injuries and will get the ball until they are not able to handle it. Varland is there to step in as needed. If he performs, he stays. This is how pitchers work their way into a rotation. Varland, and others, need to get an opportunity and earn it. The Twins will have a shorter hook for guys who are unable to use their pitches this year. Ober, Varland, Winder, and Woods Richardson are waiting for their time. Varland seemed like the one that is ready.

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 2/7/2023 at 11:44 AM, roger said:

Had a chance to talk to an old timer, maybe 20 or so years ago.  One of the young Legion players at the banquet wanted to get into a debate with him about throwing hard.  What I recall is a response that was more about refining all your pitches and being able to throw them when and where you wanted.  He certainly never threw hard, doubt he ever broke 90.  Yet, he went on to win more games in MLB than any other left handed pitcher.  As he said, Velocity ain't all that important if you know how to pitch.

Varland and Gray and pray for rain?

[jmlease1]

20 hours ago, sun said:

No one needs to be dropped, not even Ober. They all just need to be properly managed to maximize their opportunities because some will have misfires and/or injuries. Starting pitchers can be platooned instead of parading the same tired bullpen onto the field every night because the starters don't last. Sometimes 2 starters can pitch one complete game instead of watching some of the same circus acts like Pagan blow games.

It's mostly a matter of scheduling management and thinking outside of the box. If the fans need to wait for Varland then they need to wait. But maybe having more starters will cut down on injuries to Mahle and the rest. Who really knows how effective any of our starters will be? At least we know Varland's arrow is pointing up & that he seems to already be effective & durable.. The best players are the ones who are available and not out with injuries. Maybe having more starters can give Rocco better options than working with a larger bullpen, & can help to win more games. Maybe Varland can be an option for platooning starters as needed.

Someone will still dropped, though: we get 13 pitchers on the active roster, period. Pagan is the most on the bubble for me (and everyone else that's not in twins management as far as I can tell), but if you keep 7 starters, then you only get 6 relievers. A piggyback strategy made sense to me last season when we were running out Archer (who couldn't get past the 4th inning much of the time) or Bundy (whom we didn't want pitching any deeper than the 5th most of the time), but we our top 5 starters i think there's more belief and faith that they can go deeper more consistently. The other issue is whether or not the guys who have trained as a starter and prep in that way for a known starting assignment can adapt to warming up in a very different fashion and coming in mid-game. Maeda could do it...but has incentives tied to his number of starts, which could be an issue.

I do think the twins should be looking at having 1-2 pitchers in their bullpen that are able to go 2+ innings consistently and be planned to deploy as those bridge pitchers (and would love to drop Pagan in favor of that!)...but I don't think that's the best way to manage Varland's career right now. 

[sun]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Someone will still dropped, though: we get 13 pitchers on the active roster, period. Pagan is the most on the bubble for me (and everyone else that's not in twins management as far as I can tell), but if you keep 7 starters, then you only get 6 relievers. A piggyback strategy made sense to me last season when we were running out Archer (who couldn't get past the 4th inning much of the time) or Bundy (whom we didn't want pitching any deeper than the 5th most of the time), but we our top 5 starters i think there's more belief and faith that they can go deeper more consistently. The other issue is whether or not the guys who have trained as a starter and prep in that way for a known starting assignment can adapt to warming up in a very different fashion and coming in mid-game. Maeda could do it...but has incentives tied to his number of starts, which could be an issue.

I do think the twins should be looking at having 1-2 pitchers in their bullpen that are able to go 2+ innings consistently and be planned to deploy as those bridge pitchers (and would love to drop Pagan in favor of that!)...but I don't think that's the best way to manage Varland's career right now. 

I agree to an extent but for the sake of argument I'd say that it's still a matter of properly managing each pitcher individually to keep them stretched out as starters. That could mean 2 pitchers in for about 5 and 4 innings each. Then you save your closer and BP for the next game. If the platooned pitcher doesn't get in enough pitches during that outing then he can throw another 20 pitches in a bullpen session immediately after the game "if necessary." What do they do when a starter needs to be pulled in the 3rd inning because he got pulled? Let's not assume a planned 2 inning scenario when that's not what platooning 2 starters is intended to be about. This is more about managing a different type of pitching based on modern realities of how long starters usually last and piggybacking them. Not for 2 innings, but 4 or 5. Ober & Varland may be exactly those kind of guys. You know that Rocco goes by pitch count.  It's about thinking outside of the box to make the best "full use" of the pitchers that are available on the staff, & Rocco gets to choose his staff. The rest can be waiting in the wings in AAA.

The Twins signed another guy that might work as long relief or as a backup starter and that's De Leon. AFAIK he's been signed as a "starter type" with limited MLB experience and an injury history but may become ready for prime time. Maybe his injury history will allow him to pitch 2-3+ instead of 5.  The point is to manage the BP to last the whole season & to help keep them effective. It's just an idea that I wish they would actually try out using decent pitchers.

[JD-TWINS]

Keith Law of The Athletic just rated our Top 20 prospects & has him (Varland) rated as a probable reliever since he does not have a “plus” pitch in his 4 pitch repertoire.

Coming from small college Minnesota baseball & to have improved every year significantly is something to get behind. I have no problem with a “consistent #4-#5 stuff guy” that can stay healthy and throw 150-180 innings yearly & sticking with him for years.

Pretty sure you can win just as many games started by your #5 guy as you can by your #1 guy?!?!!

If Mr. Law is right though - or if Varland proves him right by digressing through 3-4 months in ‘23 - we should see the if his stuff plays better from the Pen.

BTW, Law projects SWR as a bullpen arm as well.

Maybe, ………maybe, we should assume Sands is a reliever - Winder is a reliever - & one of SWR or Varland is a reliever and potentially free us of Pagán - J. Lopez - etc………our starters of the future will come together……let’s have a STRONG & HEALTHY Pen!

Look at how the Rangers built their starting staff for this year…….It can be done in a hurry! At the end of ‘23 we’ll still have López - Paddack - Ryan - Ober as a base, worst case. 

Varland - SWR - Megill - Jax - Duran  - Maeda - Moran - Thielbar - Winder how do these 9 arms look in the Pen going into the ‘23 playoffs?…….hopefully, we sign Chafin or Moore when we have room on 40 man!!

Playoff starters would be Best FOUR Results from season out of :

Ober - Ryan - Gray - López - Mahle

[jkcarew]

Love the Goltz analogies.  Back in the day when you could be a 5th round draft pick out of high school (Goltz)...and then choose to go to Moorhead State!! Gotta love it.

Both Goltz and Radke had at least one pitch (Radke, two) that was way better than anything Varland has so far. 

I tend not to be quite as high on Varland as most here. Velocity is NOT his problem.  It's command of the fastball, and questionable quality of secondary pitches. He's proved me pretty wrong so far...but I still see a reliever. In the meantime, fun watching him overachieve.