Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #9 Louie Varland, RHP

[Nick Nelson]

The overachiever from St. Paul has proven doubters wrong at every stage of his professional journey thus far. The only remaining step is the most important one.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Age: 25 (DOB: 12/9/1997)
2022 Stats: (AA/AAA): 126.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 15

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
 

Varland's big-league debut on September 7th was emblematic of his journey as a prospect, which earned him back-to-back Twins Minor League Player of the Year awards: he met a new challenge with poise and confidence, and he handled it brilliantly.

You could hardly ask for more stressful introductory circumstances than stepping into Yankee Stadium to face MVP Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers on behalf of a team desperately clinging onto postseason hopes. Varland took it in stride. In his first match-up against Judge, he got a swinging strikeout with a beautifully executed righty-on-righty changeup.

Varland went to pitch into the sixth inning, finishing with a final line (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) that reflected his body of work in a five-start September stint with the Twins: 26 IP, 3.81 ERA, 21 K, 6 BB. Add in his outstanding work at Double-A and Triple-A prior to the promotion, and you've got a statement season that lends further legitimacy to the former 15th-round pick's pro credentials.

As much as he's improved his stuff from where it was when he was drafted, Varland still lacks the pure velocity or secondary quality of other pitchers in the Twins' current rotation mix, and others on this top prospects list. But there's something to be said for having the confidence and pace to execute as consistently as he does on the mound, including pressure-packed situations. 

Another thing working for Varland, particularly in the context of Minnesota's current situation, is his dependability and durability. He's one of the few on this list (or currently in the majors) who's been able to reliably take the mound each fifth day without issue. Last year between the majors and minors he threw 150 innings, which is more than any Twins pitcher has totaled since 2019. This, as a 24-year-old with one pro season under his belt.

Clearly there's a lot to like from this hometown hurler who has proven so much. So why isn't he higher than ninth on our list? That comes down to Varland's final proving point ahead.

What's Left to Work On
Varland's overachieving accomplishments have earned him organizational awards and an early arrival in the majors. But they haven't shifted the broader view of his future upside, which helps explain why he still doesn't appear on any global top prospect lists and – despite moving up six spots this year – remains behind eight players (including several pitchers) in our rankings.

It comes down to the substance behind his performance. Varland's fastball plays up due to his extension and deceptive release point, and he's added a ton since his college days, but it still averages under 94 MPH, placing it on the lower side of today's MLB spectrum. None of his secondary pitches – the slider, cutter and change – have shown to be particularly outstanding offerings. 

The righty manages to make the most of his arsenal thanks to a good approach and situational fortitude – for example, he held opponents to a .643 OPS with runners on last year compared to .726 with the bases empty – but decades of evaluation have taught us there's a limit to how far you can go with this kind of raw stuff.

Generally speaking, that's about a third or fourth starter. And that's what Varland has mostly looked like thus far, which is hardly an insult. There's plenty of value in a player with his consistency and reliability providing several cost-controlled seasons of roughly average performance from an MLB rotation.

What's Next
I don't think anyone in the organization would deny that Varland looks like a major-league pitcher. He could credibly be written into the back end of the Twins rotation on Opening Day, if needed, but the Twins have wisely stacked veteran depth to allow the 25-year-old righty to open up at Triple-A (where he's made four starts) so he can serve as a quality rotation reinforcement with a chance to lock down his spot as soon as the opportunity comes.

Reaching the next level of MLB starting pitcher status would require fundamentally improving some of his pitches to overpower batters with more than a polished approach, but we're talking about a guy whose legendary work ethic led to adding nearly 10 MPH in fastball velocity and vastly upgrading his secondary repertoire since being drafted as a little-known 15th-rounder out of Concordia University. If anyone can do it, it'd be Louie Varland.

Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.

For more Twins Daily content on Louie Varland, click here. 

Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Coming Wednesday!

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[NotAboutWinning]

20 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

As much as he's improved his stuff from where it was when he was drafted, Varland still lacks the pure velocity or secondary quality of other pitchers in the Twins' current rotation mix, and others on this top prospects list. But there's something to be said for having the confidence and pace to execute as consistently as he does on the mound, including pressure-packed situations. 

Another thing working for Varland, particularly in the context of Minnesota's current situation, is his dependability and durability. He's one of the few on this list (or currently in the majors) who's been able to reliably take the mound each fifth day without issue. Last year between the majors and minors he threw 150 innings, which is more than any Twins pitcher has totaled since 2019

Perhaps this will allow him to have a long, productive career in professional baseball! The current philosophy of encouraging young pitchers to be flamethrowers is craziness and creating an endless line of pitchers sidelined by shoulder and elbow issues.

[Karbo]

I'm struck by the fact that 150 IP is the highest total for the Twins. That is Pitiful!

[miracleb]

Hopefully, he can make the jump to a spot in the rotation this year.  It's not like he is 22 years old anymore.......

[jmlease1]

I like Varland. I think he needs to sharpen his offspeed pitches and reduce his walks to really be successful in MLB, but he certainly has shown that he can adapt and grow as a pitcher so far during his career. If he can keep building out that change-up, for example, as an out pitch I think that will really help him. The fastball plays, even if it's not a plus velocity (he can dial it up to 97mph, though, so there's capacity) and I think he someone who can chew up innings and get results. Avoid free passes and that WHIP starts looking much better.

He's a heck of a success story. Great developmental work by the team, and finding those lower-round, less heralded picks and turning them into real prospects is incredibly important. Varland's got the right make up to be a success and showed he can improve his tools through work and process. Love it. He'll be pitching in the rotation this season and be locked in for next season, I think.

[tony&rodney]

Varland is the perfect #5 pitcher precisely because he gives a team innings and a competitive outing. An ERA at or just below 4.00 and 5-6 innings per start from the #5 starter will keep the team in most games and almost certainly be a better performance than another team's #5 starter (granted these guys do not match up all the time). 

Despite several Twins projecting as more accomplished pitchers, I would choose Varland for the last rotation slot because of his consistency.

[Dman]

I love Varland and what he has done.  Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it.

Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk.  Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP.  One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty.

What does that tell me?  One of these players is either overrated or underrated. 

I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and  provide Quality work.  Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

 

[mikelink45]

Can he be our next Dave Goltz?  I hope so and I hope we start making room for these young players in the rotation.

[Trov]

My hope is Varland becomes the kind of guy that people just keep saying, how does he keep doing well, despite not having the normal velo, or movements we think.  Maybe, just maybe, he will be a real pitcher that knows how to get guys out with location, change in speeds. I can say he will have more success then several of the top pitchers taken in his draft, which that right there is something to be happy about. 

[RJA]

Great article, Nick.  I like Varland, and I am pulling for this kid.  One thing I like about him is that he seems coachable.  We see so many young pitchers with great potential struggle and flame out, including some Twins picks in recent years, that it is refreshing to see someone who lacks overpowering stuff be productive and effective.  Some players outperform their analytics (Varland), and some underperform their analytics (Pagan).  It much like the NFL Combine--some players put up otherworldly numbers, but never make a huge impact, while others have more modest basic skills and become All Pros.  It is one of the reasons that prospects are so much fun, you never really know what you have until they step on a major league diamond.  That being said, until Varland has been around the league a bit and players see him more, we won't know for sure how his stuff plays in the long run.  

[Brandon]

Sounds like he is a Bundy clone with an extra 5 mph on his fastball according to this article.

[Oldtimer]

Love watching Varland pitch. No nonsense....right back to the rubber and waiting for the sign and next pitch. New rules no effect on his approach. Looking forward to him breaking into the top five sometime soon. 

[Nashvilletwin]

The good news for Varland - in ‘23 he should get plenty of MLB starts; in fact, his competition for those starts (Ober, Winder and SWR) should all see a good number of majors starts due to injury, fatigue, or trades of 3 or 4 of our projected starters.

He will then be in a position to be compete with those three for the final two spots in our ‘24 breaking camp rotation behind Ryan, Lopez and probably one more addition (i.e. an extended Mahle, Gray or Maeda or someone new).

If he can throw 150+ innings of about 4.00 era ball over 25-30 starts per year for five years starting in ‘24, he will be a indispensable, inexpensive cog in our next open window. There is coveted place in the world of MLB for pitchers like that.

Lot to like here.
 

[saviking]

Durability .. Something to be said about the last man standing ..

[Mike h]

So what I'm reading is Varland can pitch- proving it by working his way up from a 15th round draft choice, up through all levels of the minor leagues, winning pitcher of the year award, having a successful major league debut - but he can't pitch, because he lacks real heat and his secondary pitches are not good enough.  Well, I'll take his results. I would keep putting him out there until his results say he can't pitch.

There was a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves (John Smoltz?) who got great results despite throwing "soft". There is more to pitching than throwing fast. Whatever that is, Varland has it.  I hope the Twins will consider his results after spring training, instead of holding on to the preconceived idea that he can't pitch because analytics say so.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Mike h said:

There was a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves (John Smoltz?) who got great results despite throwing "soft". There is more to pitching than throwing fast. Whatever that is, Varland has it.  I hope the Twins will consider his results after spring training, instead of holding on to the preconceived idea that he can't pitch because analytics say so.

Smoltz had a 98 MPH four seam fastball and a nasty 91 MPH splitter. Varland has neither of those.

Are you thinking of Greg Maddux? Maddux didn't have huge velocity but his fastball had movement and he hit his spots better than anyone else in baseball.

I agree there is more than velocity - movement, location and pitch sequencing are important - but velocity sure does help a lot.

[gman]

I'd save a spot in the rotation for him to earn. A lot of the time I don't think batters were ready to hit against a guy who was immediately back on the mound and ready with the next pitch. This year they will have to be, but that doesn't mean he will lose his effectiveness.

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Mike h said:

So what I'm reading is Varland can pitch- proving it by working his way up from a 15th round draft choice, up through all levels of the minor leagues, winning pitcher of the year award, having a successful major league debut - but he can't pitch, because he lacks real heat and his secondary pitches are not good enough.  Well, I'll take his results. I would keep putting him out there until his results say he can't pitch.

There was a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves (John Smoltz?) who got great results despite throwing "soft". There is more to pitching than throwing fast. Whatever that is, Varland has it.  I hope the Twins will consider his results after spring training, instead of holding on to the preconceived idea that he can't pitch because analytics say so.

I think them continuing to promote him, and giving him 5 starts in the bigs in what was just his 2nd full professional season, says they're going with his results. The article didn't say he "can't pitch" because of his lack of "stuff," it said it can create a ceiling for him. Which is true. Doesn't mean he can't improve his "stuff," though. He's improved it this far, and will continue to work to improve it more. A 15th round pick becoming a #3 type starter in the bigs is a gigantic win. Even if his "stuff" limits him to being a #3 starter it's still not a suggestion that he "can't pitch." It's just that he won't ever be Verlander or deGrom. Which very few are.

And, FYI, Smoltz threw gas, I think you're thinking of Greg Maddux who didn't throw real hard in his Atlanta days, but he did have filthy "stuff." His secondary pitches were significantly better than Varland's, and his control was maybe the best baseball has ever seen.

[mikelink45]

As I read the quotes I think about all the "junkball" pitchers who made big careers despite not having the blazing fastball.

Stu Miller won 105 games and gained 27 WAR. He pitched 26 years.  

 

“He's got three speeds of pitches – slow, slower and reverse,” the sportswriter Jim Murray said

 

Klye Hendricks has a fastball that does not reach 90 

 

Rip Sewell was famous for his Eephus pitch. He won 143 games and had 26.9 WAR.

Rich Hill is 42, I don't think he is dazzling with his fastball.

Jack Quinn pitched at age 50, won 247 games and had a WAR of 58.7  I doubt he was blazing fast all those years.

Jamie Moyer won 269 games, had WAR 49.8 and lasted 25 years.

 

And we have had our share of slow pitch pitchers like the essay on Dave Goltz.  

Jeff Zahn was our best pitcher for four years, but not a Strikeout artist.

Blackburn was our top pitcher for five years - I still don't know what he threw.  And in his team mates - Slowey (great name) and Baker.  

 

There is pitching and there is throwing. 

 

[Mike h]

Yes, it was Maddox I was thinking of. Thank you for the correction.

[weitz41]

In two full seasons he's gone from 15th round pick to maybe a #3-#5 starter. Hopefully we're talking about maybe a #1-#3 starter by this time next year.  Easy guy to root for.

[Cris E]

I will caution that the vast majority those sift-tossing pitcher examples have not thrown an inning during the career of most MLB players. The game is different and there are fewer Doug Jones and Jamie Moyers around than ever. It's not just a stylistic thing either: batters can get in the cage and see as many changeups off the pitching machine as they want. There's film and analytics on when each pitch comes in the sequence and what each pitchers' tendencies are. It was hard to get by with an 88mph heater 15 years ago and it's even harder today. 

Luckily Varland is more Brad Radke than Jamie Moyer. He's got a fairly normal repertoire and can reach back for the big one when he needs to so hitters have to honor the fastball. I think his challenge is simply having to become a pitcher earlier in his career than the throwers who can get further into their career on power and crazy stuff.  

[jimbo92107]

Let's call Varland's velocity "94 plus."

Plus, he hasn't blown out his arm, like most pitchers that try to throw 96.

Plus, he gets guys out.

Plus, he's an innings eater. 

Twins have a young, healthy pitcher that can go every fifth day, but doesn't quite hit the upper 90's. He might even pick up a couple ticks naturally, as sometimes happens with experience. I'd find a reason to put this guy in the rotation before mid season.

[Nashvilletwin]

9 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Luckily Varland is more Brad Radke than Jamie Moyer

Yes, I was actually thinking Radke, or, as MikeLink45 pointed out, Goltz would be a wonderful ceiling for Varland.

Having said that, I’d take a floor of 150+ frames, 25-30 starts and an era around 4.00 over each the next five years on essentially league minimum any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[roger]

Loved the young man I saw on the mound at Yankee stadium and his next four games.  Considering how little experience he has, would think all his pitches will improve beginning next week.  Will be shocked if he isn't much higher than a #5 starter in future Twins rotations.

Like many of you, am tired of seeing the first thing mentioned what his velo is...or isn't.  Have to wonder where the experts would have ranked Brad Radke the year before his joining the Twins as one of their top pitchers for what was it, a decade?

Had a chance to talk to an old timer, maybe 20 or so years ago.  One of the young Legion players at the banquet wanted to get into a debate with him about throwing hard.  What I recall is a response that was more about refining all your pitches and being able to throw them when and where you wanted.  He certainly never threw hard, doubt he ever broke 90.  Yet, he went on to win more games in MLB than any other left handed pitcher.  As he said, Velocity ain't all that important if you know how to pitch.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland is the perfect #5 pitcher precisely because he gives a team innings and a competitive outing. An ERA at or just below 4.00 and 5-6 innings per start from the #5 starter will keep the team in most games and almost certainly be a better performance than another team's #5 starter (granted these guys do not match up all the time). 

Despite several Twins projecting as more accomplished pitchers, I would choose Varland for the last rotation slot because of his consistency.

Those stats would make him a borderline number two starter....

I'm a believer. I think he's a legit number three, four, starter right now. He'll be in the rotation full time next year.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Mike h said:

So what I'm reading is Varland can pitch- proving it by working his way up from a 15th round draft choice, up through all levels of the minor leagues, winning pitcher of the year award, having a successful major league debut - but he can't pitch, because he lacks real heat and his secondary pitches are not good enough.  Well, I'll take his results. I would keep putting him out there until his results say he can't pitch.

There was a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves (John Smoltz?) who got great results despite throwing "soft". There is more to pitching than throwing fast. Whatever that is, Varland has it.  I hope the Twins will consider his results after spring training, instead of holding on to the preconceived idea that he can't pitch because analytics say so.

The article literally called him a number three starter, and you read he can't pitch?

[2wins87]

Not sure why Varland is being discussed in the soft tosser category.  Almost half of his fastballs were thrown harder than the MLB average.  Add in his well above average extension on his release point and the "effective velocity" perceived by hitters is generally above average.

We'll have to see how his secondaries perform.  Seems like he's already had some pretty good success with the changeup at the MLB level.  He seems to be a guy who has been steadily improving though, so I think he will end up looking underrated here.

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I love Varland and what he has done.  Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it.

Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk.  Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP.  One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty.

What does that tell me?  One of these players is either overrated or underrated. 

I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and  provide Quality work.  Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

 

There are plenty of additional comparisons you could make though.

Funderburk was a year older, and a third of his innings came in relief.  He pitched 5 or more innings in only 6 outings compared to 26 outings for Varland (including in his 5 major league starts).

Varland's stint in AA was also his high water mark for ERA and FIP for any minor league level/season, so he does have a stronger overall track record vs Funderburk.

Probably you are right that Funderburk has been vastly underappreciated, because he has generally put up strong numbers throughout the minors.  I don't know a ton about his stuff, but I think he doesn't show up on lists for the same reason that Laweryson isn't a top 10 prospect.  He's succeeded with some deception and pitchability, despite not having amazing velocity or a carrying pitch.  Probably his role in the majors would be a crafty lefty reliever, which is a lot different than Varland who so far has demonstrated that he could be a starter.

[jmlease1]

59 minutes ago, roger said:

Loved the young man I saw on the mound at Yankee stadium and his next four games.  Considering how little experience he has, would think all his pitches will improve beginning next week.  Will be shocked if he isn't much higher than a #5 starter in future Twins rotations.

Like many of you, am tired of seeing the first thing mentioned what his velo is...or isn't.  Have to wonder where the experts would have ranked Brad Radke the year before his joining the Twins as one of their top pitchers for what was it, a decade?

Had a chance to talk to an old timer, maybe 20 or so years ago.  One of the young Legion players at the banquet wanted to get into a debate with him about throwing hard.  What I recall is a response that was more about refining all your pitches and being able to throw them when and where you wanted.  He certainly never threw hard, doubt he ever broke 90.  Yet, he went on to win more games in MLB than any other left handed pitcher.  As he said, Velocity ain't all that important if you know how to pitch.

I think they would have looked at Radke's WHIP, his ability to keep the ball in the park, generate groundballs, his plus changeup, his durability in moving up from low A to AA in 2 seasons and thought "this guy's a prospect!" Radke had an excellent season in AA at age 21 and got promoted to MLB the next season (likely a year too early, but the 1995 Twins stunk, needed the help, and they could afford to let him learn on the job). I don't think they would have written off Brad Radke just because he didn't have high K/9 and a blazing fastball.

I think most of the posters complaining about the Twins pitching today would also complain about Radke "not being an ace" if Twins daily had been around back then too, so...

Varland has enough gas to compete, but he'll need to sharpen the offspeed stuff and cut down the walks to be mentioned in the same sentence as Brad Radke.