Trading Gio Was A Mistake

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Gio was far better than Kepler and Gallo against both righ and left handed pitching as well. I get that anything can happen in baseball, but in my opinion which I've based on the statistics and roster fit of all players involved, the Twins dumped the wrong player.

Personally, I agree with you. If I had to choose between the 3 of them. I'd choose Gio 6 days a week. But, I still think you are focused on the wrong players. Im willing to bet that Gio was traded for Farmer indirectly but yet basically straight up. 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I've heard about the swings but not the soreness. What report did I miss, what's the source?

Here is the quote, taken from fangraphs:

“(Soreness is) definitely there,” Kirilloff said. “They cut my bone so there’s definitely some aches and stuff to go along with that, but from a pain standpoint it feels good. … I think they’re expected to go away. I think anytime you break your bone it can take a lot longer than expected to heal. From my understanding, it gets to that certain point where it’s healed enough to do whatever you need to do and then it keeps healing for a while after that.”

[Cody Pirkl]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I literally said "or Miranda slides over." I haven't seen a single report that Gallo might platoon with Kirilloff, but you're running with that. I've seen them mention that Gallo can, and has, play(ed) 1B, but nothing that they're planning a platoon. Why would Farmer being the platoon raise the question of Urshela being moved? Farmer can play SS, Urshela can't. Farmer can catch, Urshela can't. Farmer played 1B as recently as last year. He played 2B in 2021. He even played LF in 2021. Urshela isn't doing any of that. Farmer replaced Gio, Gallo didn't. Gallo replaced Garlick.

They have a bunch of LH cOF who can't stay healthy, and/or haven't proven themselves. Could they replace 1 of them with a righty? Sure. But you've said "they could have put this roster together a whole lot better" like switching out 1 lefty for 1 righty is some gigantic thing. It's 1 roster spot. Let's keep some perspective here.

Gallo might, but that'll be against righties in place of Kirilloff. What do you think Farmer's role is on this team? Bench guy who only sees the field when someone is hurt? They have 4 righty IFers and a switch hitter. Farmer and Miranda are the 1B platoon. Larnach is the opening day DH. That's a position you seem to be ignoring. Gordon is their super utility guy. Is Rocco suddenly going to try to get 160 starts out of 9 guys, or is he still the guy who will give planned rest days to 100% of the players on the roster and make sure he plays everyone a bunch? Why are people concerned about playing time? The most obvious thing the Twins do is rotate players constantly.

I quite honestly can't continue to address everything in these responses so I'll leave it at this:

Gio Urshela was given away for nothing at the start of the offseason. The Twins then signed Joey Gallo, as by all accounts, they planned on trading Max Kepler. It appears they misjudged Kepler's value on the trade market and now are choosing to roll with a situation that even Dan Hayes stated "Finding at bats for everyone could be challenging" about and that they're "bordering on overkill". I don't understand why it's such an out there opinion that Urshela would be a better roster fit and use of resources than either of these bounceback candidates.

You can disagree with that, that's fine. Gio Urshela was a far better player than either of these two last season though. It's not even close by any measure that exists, and based solely on the left handed outfield depth of the 40 man roster, he's a better roster fit as well in my opinion. I'd have rather they kept him and either not signed Gallo or dumped Kepler for the low minors relief arm. Either scenario makes a better team in my eyes.

 

[Cody Pirkl]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Personally, I agree with you. If I had to choose between the 3 of them. I'd choose Gio 6 days a week. But, I still think you are focused on the wrong players. Im willing to bet that Gio was traded for Farmer indirectly but yet basically straight up. 

They basically traded what would have been 3B depth in Urshela (when Miranda moved over) for SS depth in Farmer, but they could've had both. I think if there's one thing the roster could use right now, it's one more right handed bat to play 1B if Kirilloff needs to platoon. I think Gio would have been able to fit that description very well, even if Farmer was still here.

[dxpavelka]

Gallo's "recent" offensive struggles?  Dude's a .199 career hitter.  RECENT?

 

[dxpavelka]

Love all the consternation about the lack of right handed bats while Sano remains unemployed.  And we employ a guy like Gallo is worse at all the things folks hated Sano for than Sano was.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Cody Pirkl said:

They basically traded what would have been 3B depth in Urshela (when Miranda moved over) for SS depth in Farmer, but they could've had both. I think if there's one thing the roster could use right now, it's one more right handed bat to play 1B if Kirilloff needs to platoon. I think Gio would have been able to fit that description very well, even if Farmer was still here.

This is a path I wont follow. Its just my thing. I am 100% against platooning a young player. Unless that is all they think he can be in the future. Personally I want more out of Kirilloff.

Farmer could play SS if Correa signs with someone else. His 8 million could help pay for Correa. The Angels were calling. Gallo probably wasnt a consideration until Correa said Giants. 

[Cody Pirkl]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

This is a path I wont follow. Its just my thing. I am 100% against platooning a young player. Unless that is all they think he can be in the future. Personally I want more out of Kirilloff.

Farmer could play SS if Correa signs with someone else. His 8 million could help pay for Correa. The Angels were calling. Gallo probably wasnt a consideration until Correa said Giants. 

Kirilloff will probably need a lot of days off early in the season anyways though so it'd work out well. That's also best case scenario. I think people underestimate the chance that Kirilloff provides nothing at all. It's an unfortunate reality, but one I thought they could have planned better for.

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Love all the consternation about the lack of right handed bats while Sano remains unemployed.  And we employ a guy like Gallo is worse at all the things folks hated Sano for than Sano was.

FWIW, Gallo is a clearly superior defender. Offensively, I think you're right, but Miguel seems to have worn out his welcome in Minny. BTW, I don't think it's totally fair. Sano has holes in his swing that seem to have been recognized and exacerbated by the high-velo new normal that has taken over MLB. It isn't because he doesn't work hard or he's too fat IMHO.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Kirilloff will probably need a lot of days off early in the season anyways though so it'd work out well. That's also best case scenario. I think people underestimate the chance that Kirilloff provides nothing at all. It's an unfortunate reality, but one I thought they could have planned better for.

Yep, outwardly the Twins have addressed depth by having Farmer and Gordon in the infield and Gordon, Larnach, Celestino (at least) in the outfield. For first base they have Kirilloff and then guys slated to play elsewhere. I guess they are really believing Alex'  wrist problems will be behind him. I hope so, I really think Kirilloff can be a lineup fixture and potential All-Star if he is fully healthy and I do believe this year is a make-or-break for the former first round pick.

[jkcarew]

I like Gio…nice 3rd baseman. 
 

But you’re going to need several more paragraphs to get me to even start seeing how Kepler has anything actually material to do with Urshela as far as roster construction goes. They are not going to move Miranda to every-day 1B at this point in his career…the Urshela trade is proof of that. I’ll listen to arguments that Kirilloff/Gallo are redundant…maybe even Kepler/Gallo.

Gio will be making over $9M this year…to platoon with the Twins?  Instead, the Twins sold high on a nice, not great, player…and signed Farmer for $5.5M to platoon.

 

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Maybe I didn't read the article carefully enough, but given the current roster and that we're apparently not trading Kepler for prospects, who would you remove from the 40-man to make room to have kept Gio?

Gallo

[I wish the twins were good]

Urshela and Kepler were and are both expendable. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Good thing you weren't the GM when Hunter struggled. Miranda was a rookie. He might not be great at third, but to write him off after one year is amazingly impatient. 

He probably won't be great at third. It's not one year, it's several years in the minors as well. There's literally no evidence he will be above average at 3B.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

The roster construction is the basis of calling it a mistake. They have so many left handed corner outfielders that one of them who's won gold gloves at their position is going to have to play 1B for playing time. Gio is a much better fit for how this roster wound up than Kepler or Gallo on the basis of him being right handed and performing better than both combined last season. 

I also don't believe in the "the season hasn't started yet so we can't judge" idea. You can tell by looking at the roster right now that they have too many left handed hitters and that guys are going to be playing out of position. That's not a sign of good process by the FO.

All of your examples relate to 1B and OF.  Trading Urshela doesn't impact those positions.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Dan Hayes had an article on the Athletic I believe 5 days ago that said the soreness hasn't gone away.

“After swinging the bat for most of January, Alex Kirilloff can still feel wrist soreness, but said his pain level has decreased after undergoing surgery for a second straight season. That should be a good sign after a drastic surgery in which doctors intentionally broke Kirilloff’s right wrist in order to shave down the bone to prevent it from rubbing against other bones.

The Twins have Kirilloff on a low-volume program for now to help him increase his range of motion and build grip strength. Currently, he’s taking 50-60 swings a day. Earlier this month, Derek Falvey cautioned Kirilloff could have a slower spring training.

“(Soreness is) definitely there,” Kirilloff said. “They cut my bone so there’s definitely some aches and stuff to go along with that, but from a pain standpoint it feels good. … I think they’re expected to go away. I think anytime you break your bone it can take a lot longer than expected to heal. From my understanding, it gets to that certain point where it’s healed enough to do whatever you need to do and then it keeps healing for a while after that.””

 

https://theathletic.com/4139848/2023/01/30/twinsfest-carlos-correa-pablo-lopez/
 

aches, decreased, better. Lots of contradictions in that quote. I’m not exactly sure what to take away

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

FWIW, Gallo is a clearly superior defender. Offensively, I think you're right, but Miguel seems to have worn out his welcome in Minny. BTW, I don't think it's totally fair. Sano has holes in his swing that seem to have been recognized and exacerbated by the high-velo new normal that has taken over MLB. It isn't because he doesn't work hard or he's too fat IMHO.

Luckily for Twins fans there is NO chance of a guy like him going elsewhere and ripping it up.  Nor any such precedent.

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

We can predict Kirilloff being healthy all we'd like, it's based on nothing more than hope on our end. At the last report he was taking 60-70 swings per day and still has legitimate soreness. Joey Gallo is going to see a lot of time at 1B.

The problem is us assuming to be in a position to make an informed decision on Kirilloff's likelihood of returning.  It's reasonable to assume none of us are specialists in this type of surgery and none of us have had the benefit of speaking with his doctors regarding prognosis.  Soreness after surgery is normal.  He is not reporting pain.  That's as much as we know so to sit here passing judgement defies some very basic management practices.

Gallo vs Urshella is a tradeoff in your mind that I seriously doubt the FO considered for 10 seconds.  You are also only thinking about the right now.  There is far more benefit in long-term solutions (Miranda).  You also failed to consider Farmer was a back-up plan in the fairly likely event we did not resign Correa.  Nor have you considered Farmer is a better than Urshela against LHP and has more flexibility.  Farmer also has an extra year of control.  He very well could be traded at the deadline so the net is another prospect or two.

None of this addresses Lewis being on the horizon. 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I like Gio…nice 3rd baseman. 
 

 

Gio will be making over $9M this year…to platoon with the Twins?  Instead, the Twins sold high on a nice, not great, player…and signed Farmer for $5.5M to platoon.

 

and got an extra year of control and another good bat against LHP and a back-up for SS.

[TopGunn#22]

I wish we had a sense of what has been offered for Kepler and what the Twins have countered with.  I believe if the Yankees are willing, a trade of Kepler for Montas even with Montas missing most of April while he gets his should right would be a great trade to add a top of the rotation arm if we're willing to be patient.  If the Yankees has zero interest in that then I can understand the Twins unwillingness to trade Max at this point.  But I firmly believe Max will be dealt.  Maybe if the Twins had singed Adam Duval as a RH hitting complement to all the LH hitting outfielders we have the roster would look better.  We sold low on Gio so it's not a reach to label it a mistake.  

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Kirilloff will probably need a lot of days off early in the season anyways though so it'd work out well. That's also best case scenario. I think people underestimate the chance that Kirilloff provides nothing at all. It's an unfortunate reality, but one I thought they could have planned better for.

I think you are going to find a lot of players getting days off early in the season. That's good because you never know what you are going to need until you need it. 

Agreed, Kirilloff is not a sure thing from a health or performance standpoint. There are very very few sure things on this roster or in baseball... the front office doesn't know what they need until they need it.

Depth is the only thing that can provide some protection from not knowing what you need until you need it. 

If you have actual depth... it makes no sense to only use a portion of it because if you only use a portion of it, you don't have depth.

If you have actual depth, trying to contain it in neat little boxes is only going to drive you crazy. 

Gallo doesn't have to be Kepler replacement. Kepler doesn't have to be superfluous. Take them out of the boxes you are putting them in... you'll feel better. 

[jmlease1]

If the argument is we let Urshela go for too little...I get that. He was a quality player last season and the 3B market was thin. Of course, he's getting paid a pretty decent amount this season and there may be questions on whether or not he was going to be able to repeat the performance.

But from the Twins perspective, the decision was about SS, not the OF. The Twins have less confidence in Urshela at SS than they do Nick Gordon (and they have very little faith in Gordon playing SS). They see Urshela as a 3B, and it's unclear if they see him as a viable player at 1B, though it doesn't seem unreasonable. But they felt confident in Miranda after his rookie season, so if he's got the starting gig at 3B, how does Urshela fit in a bench role? Along side Nick Gordon...not very well. If Farmer was going to be the starting SS, they needed a backup for the spot and Urshela can't do that (neither can Gordon). With Correa back in the fold, they still need a backup and Farmer fits that role very well, with proven positional flexibility in a number of spots.

There's only so many spots on the roster, especially with the team carrying 13 pitchers. Urshela's a nice player, but Miranda is younger and cheaper, and has more upside. I still question the Gallo decision, but once that move happened there's just no room for another 3B on the roster.

[Jeff D.]

IMO we should have kept Urshela and moved Max. Good read. Good questions asked and good view point in the answer by the author. We certainly did not need to replace Sano's strikeouts.

We have a surplus of unproven talent at this point on this team. We have a dull dugout leader on this team. I am hopeful the Twins can win 80 games this year. Spring Training will give us a great preview.

Go Twins! 

Twins Geezer out!

 

 

 

[Trov]

I disagree.  Could it end up being a mistake, maybe, but the reason stated because we kept Kepler and have too many left handed hitters is not a good reason.  Not saying Kepler will become anything amazing, but years ago we let a left handed hitting guy go because we had too many lefties and kept Matthew LeCroy to be our DH/catcher to be the right handed hitter we needed.  Well that never turned out well for us.  I would never make a decision on a player simply because of if they hit right or left and the rest of the team hits a certain way.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

So trading Urshela to open a spot for Miranda was a mistake because the Twins signed Gallo and haven't (yet) traded Kepler? Is that the gist of this? 

So if/when the Twins trade Kepler, then the decision to trade Urshela isn't a mistake?

I'm confused.

[Major League Ready]

Not that I think Kepler has anything to do with the decision to trade Urshela but do we want them to trade Kepler if they have not been offered a good return?  Wouldn't it make more sense to play it out until the trade deadline and see if a better solution presents itself?  They can dump him for a marginal return during the season in the happy event Larnach and/or Wallner are playing so well Kepler is of little value to us.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Here is fangraphs WAR for 2019-2022 for each of Urshela, Gallo and Kepler, just for comparison's sake.

 

Urshela

2019 = 2.8

2020 = 1.1

2021 = 0.7

2022 = 2.4

Average per season = 1.75

 

Gallo

2019 = 3.2

2020 = 1.0

2021 = 4.2

2022 = 0.6

Average per season = 2.25

 

Kepler 

2019 = 3.8

2020 = 1.1

2021 = 2.3

2022 = 2.0

Average per season = 2.3

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

The roster construction is the basis of calling it a mistake. They have so many left handed corner outfielders that one of them who's won gold gloves at their position is going to have to play 1B for playing time. Gio is a much better fit for how this roster wound up than Kepler or Gallo on the basis of him being right handed and performing better than both combined last season. 

I also don't believe in the "the season hasn't started yet so we can't judge" idea. You can tell by looking at the roster right now that they have too many left handed hitters and that guys are going to be playing out of position. That's not a sign of good process by the FO.

I understand the logic that you are taking here.  But even if you feel that way now, you presume that there are no more changes going to be made to the roster between now and opening day.

Feel free to call this a mistake if the Twins do not make a move for more RH hitters and they start 2-12 against lefty SP. Until then this is 100% premature.

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The problem is us assuming to be in a position to make an informed decision on Kirilloff's likelihood of returning.  It's reasonable to assume none of us are specialists in this type of surgery and none of us have had the benefit of speaking with his doctors regarding prognosis.  Soreness after surgery is normal.  He is not reporting pain.  That's as much as we know so to sit here passing judgement defies some very basic management practices.

Gallo vs Urshella is a tradeoff in your mind that I seriously doubt the FO considered for 10 seconds.  You are also only thinking about the right now.  There is far more benefit in long-term solutions (Miranda).  You also failed to consider Farmer was a back-up plan in the fairly likely event we did not resign Correa.  Nor have you considered Farmer is a better than Urshela against LHP and has more flexibility.  Farmer also has an extra year of control.  He very well could be traded at the deadline so the net is another prospect or two.

None of this addresses Lewis being on the horizon. 

It's reading the tea leaves based on the reports we have regarding the limited work Kirilloff is getting in terms of swings and the soreness that persists in his wrist. In that same article there's a fair amount of referencing Joey Gallo playing 1B. I'd rather have kept Gio Urshela than have the left handed outfield logjam they have now, especially if Gallo is going to have to play out of position from where he's earned two gold gloves. I'd also prefer to have Urshela over Kepler simply due to redundancy.

They've replaced Urshela with Farmer, a worthy trade off considering Farmer's ability to play SS. They replaced Celestino with Taylor to give the younger guy time to develop more in AAA, another worthy trade off. They also dropped Garlick from the 40 man roster and replaced him with another left handed corner outfielder in need of a bounceback in Joey Gallo despite the fact that Max Kepler is essentially at the same crossroads in his career. A team that got abused by AAA level left handed pitchers last season because of their inability to put themselves in advantageous matchups has actually made the active choice to become more left handed. I don't like that roster construction, and a lot of it appears to be tied to their refusal to admit Max Kepler is nothing more than a defense first fill in level player just because he had one single great season three years ago. That's my issue with the current roster and why I think dumping Gio Urshela was a mistake.

In regards to Lewis, you simply can't justify offseason roster decisions based on a guy with 41 career plate appearances who won't be back until July at the earliest after tearing his ACL a second time. That's a bonus player, not one you count on if you're a serious team.

[Cody Pirkl]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I understand the logic that you are taking here.  But even if you feel that way now, you presume that there are no more changes going to be made to the roster between now and opening day.

Feel free to call this a mistake if the Twins do not make a move for more RH hitters and they start 2-12 against lefty SP. Until then this is 100% premature.

I agree with you regarding further roster moves. This opinion is based on the recent reporting that they don't seem likely to trade Kepler. I think Urshela is more valuable as an overall player and to this particular roster than Kepler. If they still did and the roster jam got cleared up then I'm happy to call Gio for Farmer a worthy 1:1 swap. I just don't like where they're at currently with players like Wallner and Larnach (Who have a chance to be better than Kepler) buried on the depth chart and Gallo potentially playing out of position.