Trading Gio Was A Mistake

[Cody Pirkl]

55 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here is fangraphs WAR for 2019-2022 for each of Urshela, Gallo and Kepler, just for comparison's sake.

 

Urshela

2019 = 2.8

2020 = 1.1

2021 = 0.7

2022 = 2.4

Average per season = 1.75

 

Gallo

2019 = 3.2

2020 = 1.0

2021 = 4.2

2022 = 0.6

Average per season = 2.25

 

Kepler 

2019 = 3.8

2020 = 1.1

2021 = 2.3

2022 = 2.0

Average per season = 2.3

 

 

Roster context is important though. The Twins have three left handed corner outfielders who are plus defenders and Michael A Taylor who will also likely play in the corners from time to time. That level of defensive value starts to reach the point of diminishing returns pretty quickly considering all of those players can't be on the field at the same time. Urshela is essentially the opposite of what Kepler and Gallo were last season: All of his Fangraphs WAR was gained from his offense. Would we rather have multiple players who get all of their value from defense and cripple the lineup, or one of those players and a right handed hitter who can match up better? I'm not concerned about Urshela's lack of ability to play the outfield, the "depth" turned into an excess the day Gallo was signed.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I agree with you regarding further roster moves. This opinion is based on the recent reporting that they don't seem likely to trade Kepler. I think Urshela is more valuable as an overall player and to this particular roster than Kepler. If they still did and the roster jam got cleared up then I'm happy to call Gio for Farmer a worthy 1:1 swap. I just don't like where they're at currently with players like Wallner and Larnach (Who have a chance to be better than Kepler) buried on the depth chart and Gallo potentially playing out of position.

I understand the Urshela vs Kepler discussion, especially with Gallo on the roster.  Personally I think Gallo was signed more for 1B insurance.  The Taylor trade supports that theory.  The Urshela trade was made to "unblock" Miranda at 3B.

Everybody is so concerned that the younger players are "blocked".  The truth is that we as fans do not know what the general feelings are towards these younger players.  Also, none of them are truly "blocked" anyways:

Gallo - 1 yr contract
Kepler - Last year of contract
Farmer - year to year
Gordon - Still needs to "prove it"
Polanco - could be bought out after this year

Everybody needs to slow down and let the pieces fall where they may 
 

[Finlander]

The Twins have 4 gold glove caliber outfielders in Gallo/Buxton/Kepler, with Taylor backup. And with Correa back and Sanchez added to help solidify catching, the pitching staff  should be jumping up and down with joy.

I don"t understand the concern about lefthanded corner outfielders. Why aren't those same people crying about the righthanded pitching rotation? Gallo looks like a good LF solution who backs up 1B. Farmer is a superior SS backup to Urshela, at half the salary with an extra year of control, and he helps at catching depth.

Yes, taken as a whole, maybe this isn't an ideal roster construction. But, given the timeframe and sequence of events, the team looks pretty good for making a run at a winnable division. Beyond the Larnach/Wallner/Kirilloff prospect group, there are mainly infielders at top tier of near-ready prospects. Several will see some action this year. 

Some are disappointed Kepler hasn't been moved yet to relieve the corner OF stockpile. I wouldn't be surprised if Larnach or Wallner is moved in a deal instead - likely would fetch a better return. And Twins would still have the greatest defensive OF in baseball.

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

“After swinging the bat for most of January, Alex Kirilloff can still feel wrist soreness, but said his pain level has decreased after undergoing surgery for a second straight season. That should be a good sign after a drastic surgery in which doctors intentionally broke Kirilloff’s right wrist in order to shave down the bone to prevent it from rubbing against other bones.

The Twins have Kirilloff on a low-volume program for now to help him increase his range of motion and build grip strength. Currently, he’s taking 50-60 swings a day. Earlier this month, Derek Falvey cautioned Kirilloff could have a slower spring training.

“(Soreness is) definitely there,” Kirilloff said. “They cut my bone so there’s definitely some aches and stuff to go along with that, but from a pain standpoint it feels good. … I think they’re expected to go away. I think anytime you break your bone it can take a lot longer than expected to heal. From my understanding, it gets to that certain point where it’s healed enough to do whatever you need to do and then it keeps healing for a while after that.””

 

https://theathletic.com/4139848/2023/01/30/twinsfest-carlos-correa-pablo-lopez/
 

aches, decreased, better. Lots of contradictions in that quote. I’m not exactly sure what to take away

There really is a lot going on in there. But to me it sounds like pretty normal "we literally broke, and then shaved down, your bone" stuff. I'd think soreness is to be expected. 50-60 swings a day is encouraging. "Pain" would be a scarier word to me than "soreness," but that just may be my brain trying to make the best of it all. This is probably it for him so I really hope this surgery worked and he's back to hitting lasers all over the field this year!

[Cody Pirkl]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I understand the Urshela vs Kepler discussion, especially with Gallo on the roster.  Personally I think Gallo was signed more for 1B insurance.  The Taylor trade supports that theory.  The Urshela trade was made to "unblock" Miranda at 3B.

Everybody is so concerned that the younger players are "blocked".  The truth is that we as fans do not know what the general feelings are towards these younger players.  Also, none of them are truly "blocked" anyways:

Gallo - 1 yr contract
Kepler - Last year of contract
Farmer - year to year
Gordon - Still needs to "prove it"
Polanco - could be bought out after this year

Everybody needs to slow down and let the pieces fall where they may 
 

I think Gallo was signed to replace Kepler but they misjudged Kepler's value in trade.

My issue with Urshela vs Kepler is that they dumped Urshela to open playing time for a younger player but would rather jam up the roster to hold onto Kepler who quite frankly hasn't been a starting caliber player in years. People can cite his defense all they want, he's replaceable as evidenced by the 3-4 other plus defensive corner outfielders on the roster. His lack of offense at a premium offensive position makes him a bench player, but the Twins unfortunately can't let 2019 go.

If somebody offers a Gio Urshela level trade package for Kepler, I guess I just don't understand why they wouldn't take hit. Get rid of his money and get a right handed bat or reliever who will offer more value to the roster. Or, as I wrote about, just identify the left handed, defense first outfielder as the more expendable one from day one of the offseason and instead of dumping Urshela, just peg him as a utility infielder and dump Kepler for the low minors reliever.

[Mike Sixel]

13 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Kirilloff will probably need a lot of days off early in the season anyways though so it'd work out well. That's also best case scenario. I think people underestimate the chance that Kirilloff provides nothing at all. It's an unfortunate reality, but one I thought they could have planned better for.

I see little evidence on this site people are underestimating those odds. This site isn't a bundle of optimism...  

[Cory Engelhardt]

36 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Roster context is important though. The Twins have three left handed corner outfielders who are plus defenders and Michael A Taylor who will also likely play in the corners from time to time. That level of defensive value starts to reach the point of diminishing returns pretty quickly considering all of those players can't be on the field at the same time. Urshela is essentially the opposite of what Kepler and Gallo were last season: All of his Fangraphs WAR was gained from his offense. Would we rather have multiple players who get all of their value from defense and cripple the lineup, or one of those players and a right handed hitter who can match up better? I'm not concerned about Urshela's lack of ability to play the outfield, the "depth" turned into an excess the day Gallo was signed.

And, the high water mark for offense that Urshela can provide is not (arguably) the high water mark that Gallo can provide right?

Farmer and Miranda's offense should more than cover whatever Urshela would hypothetically bring, barring health. 

[JD-TWINS]

Liked Urshella but $10 million v. Miranda at $700K is a wash in the box score.

Seems that most of the contributors missed the Kyle Farmer trade. He was the starting SS for the Reds - he hit 15 - 20 points less than Urshella in ‘22. He’s the back-up in ‘23 at 3B - SS - 2B for Twins & will start at 3B v. LH pitching as Miranda will then go to 1st………that’s 100 starts if everybody stays healthy. Farmer’s at approximately 1/2 of Urshella’s salary.

Connecting Kepler & Gallo situation with Urshella doesn’t make any sense to me.

With Farmer, originally, we got a bridge guy to get us to Lewis - Lee - Martin. With the CC signing we now have a polished utility IF.

Twins wanted room for Kirilof at 1st and needed Miranda at 3rd to make that happen. Miranda was offensive star in ‘21 in minors and in discussion for Rookie of Year playing only 4 months in ‘22.

[D.C Twins]

Recent reports about keeping Kepler are posturing..... He will be traded before opening day for whatever the best offer is by that time....

.... and then everyone can relax :)

'

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I think Gallo was signed to replace Kepler but they misjudged Kepler's value in trade.

My issue with Urshela vs Kepler is that they dumped Urshela to open playing time for a younger player but would rather jam up the roster to hold onto Kepler who quite frankly hasn't been a starting caliber player in years. People can cite his defense all they want, he's replaceable as evidenced by the 3-4 other plus defensive corner outfielders on the roster. His lack of offense at a premium offensive position makes him a bench player, but the Twins unfortunately can't let 2019 go.

If somebody offers a Gio Urshela level trade package for Kepler, I guess I just don't understand why they wouldn't take hit. Get rid of his money and get a right handed bat or reliever who will offer more value to the roster. Or, as I wrote about, just identify the left handed, defense first outfielder as the more expendable one from day one of the offseason and instead of dumping Urshela, just peg him as a utility infielder and dump Kepler for the low minors reliever.

Part of the problem is Urshela doesn't profile very well as a utility infielder, especially based on what we think we know of how the Twins view him. They don't think he can play SS as anything other than in an emergency, they don't appear to see him as a 2B option (and he's only played 23 innings there in his MLB career, none since 2017), and his bat plays less well at 1B (presuming he can play a good enough 1B...which seems likely, but is unproven, since he's had a total of 7 innings there in his MLB career, likely as an emergency option). Farmer shows out positional flexibility much better and frankly so does Gordon: Urshela only has 100+ innings at 2 positions in his MLB career. Farmer & Gordon (in only 2 seasons for Gordon) have 4. You can argue that's because Urshela is a starting quality 3B and that's where's he's been slotted in for his career...but he didn't become that guy until his 4th year in the majors.

I don't disagree that the roster is still a bit lopsided with LH corner OF. But keeping Urshela and dropping Kepler only fixes part of that equation (more playing time for the other LH OF); there still isn't a good role for Urshela on this team unless you either push Miranda back to 1B or drop Miranda to the bench, which the Twins seem disinclined to do.

I supported keeping Urshela on this team, but essentially swapping his roster spot for Farmer with Correa back as the starting SS makes sense to me. Gallo has always been the move that's seemed off to a lot of us, but it's worth noting that Gallo has fairly even splits, and doesn't need to be given the day off against every lefty that comes to town.

[Johnny Ringo]

I think this is a short discussion. Gio had a 3.1 WAR last year. Miranda is an uncertain but likely an averagish defender at best at third. Trading Urshela for a bucket of balls was a screwup. Especially given that they purportedly had much higher trade interest than that in Kepler at one point. (That seems to have evaporated for now.) Keeping Max and ditching Urshela in that context and given their outfield options makes no sense.

But you take the good with the bad. I think the Arraez trade (and I love Louie) was flatly a great one. 

[Cris E]

There was great pain in MN last season as team designers were forced to dig well through the bottom of the barrel to find enough guys to wear shirts and take paychecks while the major league ballplayers were injured.  So a lot of work this winter was spent on depth, and never being caught with the likes of Cage AND Celestino AND Garlick AND Leon AND Hamilton AND Beckham on the 40 man roster together, much less on the field in the same month. Lots of contingency planning built around the guys who are not proven yet, the guys who have health issues, and who can be moved to make room for the ones a year away. 

No Correa and no one behind him meant they needed an adult SS like Farmer to buy time for one of the kids to grow into the role. Gallo removes the question of ever seeing that parade of crappy OF at Target Field. The fact that he's left or right handed isn't nearly as important as his defense, his health and his record of HR and BB. It's not beautiful baseball, but even in a calamitous down year his 79 OPS+ was about as good as the callow Celestino's 80 with FAR better defense. (See also Jake Cave's 84, Contreas' 24 or Billy Hamilton's -59.) And if you look at the OF names on hand when Gallo was signed, it was Buxton (half time), Kepler (full time) and then young Gordon, new Kirilloff, new Larnach, the unready Celestino, new Wallner, and the detritus: Garlick? Cage? Contreras? Billy Hamilton? Not to say bad things about darling Gordon, but when his babip fell below .300 in Sept/Oct his OPS+ dropped to 87. The FO was looking for a solid floor, so even after Gallo was in hand they went out and got Taylor to be Buxton's understudy.  (BTW, I firmly believe that Taylor is only going to play CF and will only darken the grass in LF or RF when injury removes a better offensive option. The man is a fielder, not a hitter: in nine years he's maxxed out at a 104 OPS+ and then a 90 and the rest are below 80, though he is better against lefties. We can afford some poor defense in LF /RF to get a better bat than him in the lineup.)  

The fact that Gallo could back up 1B after seeing the health issues surrounding Arraez and Kirilloff was gravy.  And later it turned out Arraez could be traded because Gallo was on hand to play first if Kirilloff faltered. Miranda was always going to third and Urshela was going to have to move out of his way. There was a herd of infielders coming, most were not staying SS and would need homes. Miranda was already on hand, costing $9m less,  nearly hitting as well and improving rapidly, and if he faltered Lewis was there, and Lee was behind him, and Julien was coming and Polanco might get pushed from 2b. Like him all you want, but the corners were getting crowded and Gio was not moving from third so Gio had to go.   

[JD-TWINS]

20 minutes ago, Cris E said:

There was great pain in MN last season as team designers were forced to dig well through the bottom of the barrel to find enough guys to wear shirts and take paychecks while the major league ballplayers were injured.  So a lot of work this winter was spent on depth, and never being caught with the likes of Cage AND Celestino AND Garlick AND Leon AND Hamilton AND Beckham on the 40 man roster together, much less on the field in the same month. Lots of contingency planning built around the guys who are not proven yet, the guys who have health issues, and who can be moved to make room for the ones a year away. 

No Correa and no one behind him meant they needed an adult SS like Farmer to buy time for one of the kids to grow into the role. Gallo removes the question of ever seeing that parade of crappy OF at Target Field. The fact that he's left or right handed isn't nearly as important as his defense, his health and his record of HR and BB. It's not beautiful baseball, but even in a calamitous down year his 79 OPS+ was about as good as the callow Celestino's 80 with FAR better defense. (See also Jake Cave's 84, Contreas' 24 or Billy Hamilton's -59.) And if you look at the OF names on hand when Gallo was signed, it was Buxton (half time), Kepler (full time) and then young Gordon, new Kirilloff, new Larnach, the unready Celestino, new Wallner, and the detritus: Garlick? Cage? Contreras? Billy Hamilton? Not to say bad things about darling Gordon, but when his babip fell below .300 in Sept/Oct his OPS+ dropped to 87. The FO was looking for a solid floor, so even after Gallo was in hand they went out and got Taylor to be Buxton's understudy.  (BTW, I firmly believe that Taylor is only going to play CF and will only darken the grass in LF or RF when injury removes a better offensive option. The man is a fielder, not a hitter: in nine years he's maxxed out at a 104 OPS+ and then a 90 and the rest are below 80, though he is better against lefties. We can afford some poor defense in LF /RF to get a better bat than him in the lineup.)  

The fact that Gallo could back up 1B after seeing the health issues surrounding Arraez and Kirilloff was gravy.  And later it turned out Arraez could be traded because Gallo was on hand to play first if Kirilloff faltered. Miranda was always going to third and Urshela was going to have to move out of his way. There was a herd of infielders coming, most were not staying SS and would need homes. Miranda was already on hand, costing $9m less,  nearly hitting as well and improving rapidly, and if he faltered Lewis was there, and Lee was behind him, and Julien was coming and Polanco might get pushed from 2b. Like him all you want, but the corners were getting crowded and Gio was not moving from third so Gio had to go.   

Agreed mostly. I think Taylor pinch hits late against lefties - pinch runs - goes in for late defense if we’re ahead - starts in CF for every game there’s a left handed starter going. I don’t see him playing any corner OF as you state, unless late for Gordon or Larnach. That’s it for him though - he’s insurance & buffer between MLB OF and the guys you mentioned above that we saw late last year. I do not see him playing against right handed starters more than a handful of times. Gordon hits too well to not sandwich him between Kepler & Gallo…….as long as we have them both.

Gallo for some erratic power and good outfield play. The 1B option is, as you say, gravy.

I do think Gallo - Kepler both until the trade deadline and then Lewis is back & we move one of the lefty corner bats.

[dex8425]

Yeah, I don't agree. Have to give Miranda and AK a chance at the MLB level this year. 

 

[vulturepaj]

I gotta say, trading Gio was worth it simply because I don't have to listen to his walk-up song anymore.  Horrible.

[Twins33]

I sort of agree with the title but only because I’m not sure Miranda will ever be a good 3B. I think he’s a DH.
 

I’m fine with him getting a shot though and Farmer/Lee/Lewis will be there if he fails. 

[farmerguychris]

Yes, trading him was a mistake.  He was a solid major league player and we got potentially nothing in return.  Simple as that for me.  Our team is better with him on it.  Yet we kept Pagan - I actually might prefer Gio pitching over Pagan, let him give it a shot.

[nicksaviking]

I was excited to have Urshela last year but that's because I thought he'd end up being the next Marwin Gonzalez/Eduardo Escobar super utility guy. Then he played all of three innings outside of 3B last year, despite all the injuries.

If he was only going to play 3B, it was the right move to trade him. Farmer as an actual utility guy is a better use of the roster than a guy who'll push Miranda out of the lineup regularly.

[William K Johnson]

On 2/5/2023 at 9:05 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Good thing you weren't the GM when Hunter struggled. Miranda was a rookie. He might not be great at third, but to write him off after one year is amazingly impatient. 

Not writing him off, he can hit, just cannot field.