Trading Gio Was A Mistake

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins had a roster jam and an offseason of moves on the horizon when they dumped Gio Urshela for what was essentially salary relief. Given how the rest of the offseason has played out, this move appears to have been a mistake.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

 

We’ve received more straightforward news on the Max Kepler front these last few days. After speculation grew regarding the Twins possibly keeping the left-handed outfielder, Dan Hayes reports that Kepler sticking around is likely at this point. It’s been discussed how Max Kepler still has value in the right role to help the Twins if he stays. This news does make us second guess parting with Gio Urshela earlier this winter, however.

The Twins decision to trade Gio Urshela was straightforward at the time. Jose Miranda is getting a fair crack at being the everyday third baseman, and Urshela’s projected arbitration salary was a bit high for a player whose role wasn’t certain. They followed it up by signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million prove-it deal. This all but cemented the fact that Max Kepler was on the way out, as six left-handed corner outfielders on the 40-man roster is beyond excessive. With the addition of Gallo and Kepler apparently staying around, however, the Twins may have misplayed their hand.

It appears the plan with Kepler still being in the mix is for Joey Gallo to play a lot of first base in 2023. With Alex Kirilloff’s health being in question and Gallo having some experience there, it makes sense given the state of the current 40-man roster. Consider however that given Joey Gallo's recent offensive struggles, a fair bit of his floor value comes from his defense in the outfield. Perhaps his offense rebounds to passable levels for a first baseman, but his ability to cover ground and throw out runners on the base paths would be all but nullified by a move to first base. 

Make no mistake, the debate didn’t have to be Urshela vs Gallo for the first base platoon role. It seemed that the plan was to trade Max Kepler for much of the offseason. The Twins asking price appeared to have been high all along, but given the level of player Kepler is at this point and the context of the roster, it’s confusing why they’d play hardball on his price on the trade market.

Urshela was a far more valuable player than Kepler in 2022 by any Wins Above Replacement measure and was essentially given away for free because of his redundancy with Miranda moving over to the hot corner. The irony in this is that the Twins now have Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Kepler as left-handed corner outfield options and it appears they haven’t lowered their asking price at all. Kepler has a $10 million option for 2024, but do the Twins really plan on paying that if Kepler’s performance from the last two years continues?

The Twins current roster includes a massive left-handed logjam with players like Joey Gallo out of position where his skillset isn’t being maximized. Several young players such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner who should be nearing their chance to show what they can do are now pushed further down the line by the excessive outfield depth chart. They could have a better platoon partner for Kirilloff and one more right-handed bat in Gio Urshela for less money, but instead, they traded this scenario away for a 19-year-old pitching prospect in the low minors.

It’s hard to say there weren’t miscalculations on the Twins part this offseason. Looking at the roster now, it becomes clear that Urshela’s value to the team exceeded the value he carried on the trade market. This is further exacerbated by the Twins appearing to overvalue Kepler on the trade market despite the obvious lack of need for him on the roster. If they valued Kepler this highly, why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela or designating that $11 million to a right-handed hitter with more experience at first base?

It’s possible Max Kepler is still traded before the season and that the roster makes a lot more sense on Opening Day. As things stand now, however, it sure looks like dumping Gio Urshela for anything they could get was a mistake. Do you agree?

 

 

 

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[jmlease1]

I wasn't looking to trade Urshela, and he's a useful player, but his value also declines if he's playing 1B same as Gallo or Kepler playing over there. And while Urshela provided more bWAR than Kepler last season, a fairly significant chunk of the difference was the fact that Urshela was healthy all season. (and there's no guarantee Urshela will be any good playing 1B; he's played exactly 2 innings there in his MLB career. Odds are decent, but for all Urshela's supposed positional flexibility, 90% of his games have come at 3B)

I think it's likely that the Twins saw Urshela as basically being a 3B and felt Miranda was ready to take over the position. As a bench option, Farmer is a better fit (and maybe so is Gordon, especially if he could be an option to fill in at 3B against RHP) because he has a LOT more positional flexibility, especially at SS.

[terrydactyls]

No.  I don't agree.

[RedBull34]

Was the mistake trading Urshela, or choosing Gallo over Bell?  Obviously Bell went for higher, but he would have been a much cleaner fit for the roster IMO.  Twins don't have any 1B prospects knocking down the door, so they could have offered a similar contract that he got from the Guardians  (if the budget allowed it)

[ToddlerHarmon]

I don't mind at all that Miranda has been handed third base, especially with Farmer as a backup. However, Urshela over Gallo at the same price is a no-brainer on this roster.

I wonder if other teams are lowballing the Kepler offers because they see the obvious roster crunch and they know the Twins must deal. Would love to know what the offers look like.

[m-i-e-n-t-k-i-e-w-i-c-z]

What would the Angels need from us to get him back? (Only half-joking.)

[Mike Sixel]

Could not disagree more. 

[mikelink45]

Good essay and I partially agree.  Urshela should have been worth more, Gallo worth less, and the maneuvering had left us with an odd composition.  I still hope for another trade or two as Spring Training progresses and as always I would prefer a young (larnach, Wallner)  instead of a reclamation project.  

[ashbury]

Maybe I didn't read the article carefully enough, but given the current roster and that we're apparently not trading Kepler for prospects, who would you remove from the 40-man to make room to have kept Gio?

[Nashvilletwin]

The Twins infield lineup would probably be strongest (defensively and offensively) with Urshela at 3B, Correa at SS, Polanco at 2B and Miranda at 1B, with Farmer and Gordon as utility infielders.

Two questions pop up:

1. Why not Miranda at 3B? Because when Lee, Lewis and Julien arrive next year (or later this year, hopefully), Miranda will get his most innings at 1B - he’s the most logical of that group to man first (and all of them, with Correa, should be playing everyday in the infield or DH).

2. What about Kiriloff at 1B? First, there really is no telling if he will be back - hope he is, but do we really think he’s up for a full campaign (if we were, why all the chatter about Gallo playing 1B)? Second, he easily could make the team as a corner OFer, DH, and backup 1B.

With this infield, keeping Kepler then makes Gallo completely redundant. Even with Taylor, our OF world be Buxton, Kepler, Gordon, Taylor, Larnach, and Kiriloff. Thus, our position player roster would be those six OFers, the five IF’s listed above, and the two catchers. Gallo’s $11MM should’ve been redeployed in the pen,  for one more shutdown reliever.

What’s better - Urshela, Kepler and $11MM in relief pitching or Kepler and Gallo?  I mean, it’s not even close.

So, by keeping Urshela we’d have a stronger lineup - both defensively and offensively - plus we got a solid reliever as well.

So yes, we pulled the trigger too early on Urshela (and that’s even more clear after the trade of Arraez). 

[Nashvilletwin]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Maybe I didn't read the article carefully enough, but given the current roster and that we're apparently not trading Kepler for prospects, who would you remove from the 40-man to make room to have kept Gio?

See my post above - clearly Gallo.

[Blyleven2011]

The twins way , good defense,  fundamentally sound and exciting baseball  ...

The new twins way is keeping the fans confused ,,, 

Urshela's bat and defense was good , our offense only had 5 players hit over 270 last year , we traded Urshela  , arreaz and lost Correa's

bat and then we didn't so that was a blessing to keep Correa  ...

We need offense and players need to step up and have a better plate discipline when behind in the count ...

Yes we have a surplus of left handed hitting outfielders  and signing Gallo  and not trading Kepler is confusing  ....

We have plenty of depth though ,  I would like to see the younger past propects get some of an opportunity if healthy to show what they can be moving forward ...

We have depth which is comforting in away , better depth than the current FO has shown us ...

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

See my post above - clearly Gallo.

That's not up for discussion.

[Nashvilletwin]

14 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That's not up for discussion.

Oh, I missed the point. Apologies. 

[davidborton]

"Trading Gio Was A Mistake..."

Thank goodness someone else has now said this. Trading him for a Single A player in return so close to commencement of hot stove made zero sense.

 

And now the log jam. I just don't get it. And I fear Miranda will continue brutal days at 3rd.

 

[FlyingFinn]

I'm predicting that Kirilloff is healthy. He can take days off against tough LH's with Farmer at 3B and Miranda at 1B on those days. I also predict that Urshela will not put up the numbers he did in 2022 again this year. We'll see who is right after the 2023 season is done.

Kepler could still be traded like Rogers was just before last year. Also, something may happen when we can put Paddack and Lewis on the 60 day IL (maybe another team needs to put someone on the 60 day to open up a spot for Kepler - maybe Kepler and Pagan for a better relief pitcher).

[specialiststeve]

Wish we would have kept Gio.. but I understand the reasoning.

LONG way to go before opening day so saying "as of today" is kind of irrelevant. This team will have 4-5 different guys on the 40 before opening day... 

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I also wish we could have kept Gio.  I think the FO must have faith that AK is ready for 1B and they can keep Miranda at 3B.  Otherwise, they would IMO have kept Gio for 3B while waiting for Lewis, Lee, etc. and put Miranda at 1B.

[terrydactyls]

40 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We have depth which is comforting in a way , better depth than the current FO has shown us ...

Where are you seeing this "better depth" if not from the front office?

[Danchat]

I agree, I would substitute Urshela for one of Kepler or Gallo and I think the lineup would be better. Gio probably doesn't have a 3.1 WAR season again in 2023, but I'm worried about where our run production is going to come from with Gio and Arraez removed from the lineup. Gotta hope the shift bans turn Gallo and Kepler into better hitters.

It's not an egregious move, as I believe in Miranda and Correa is back, but I would have wanted more than a #30-40 prospect back for Gio.

[Doctor Gast]

I like Urshela, he's a good 3B, I don't care what the #s say. To begin the off season the odds for us to land Correa was very low. We needed & still need a decent SS back up, Urshela is not a good back up so Farmer made a lot more sense. Our right side is all right handed hitters so keeping Urshela didn't make sense. We don't know how well Miranda will handle 3B, if he can't handle it then Farmer will have to man there. Miranda plays there only when Farmer need to play SS, until Lewis is ready to come up.

Gallo was a mistake because he'll take ABs away from Gordon, Larnach and Wallner. If Kiriloff isn't ready, then Gallo probably makes the most sense at 1B but we have others that have some experience and IMO Julien could make that jump to MLB 1B. We have a log jam at corner OF LH bats. I'm not sure the shift ban will help Gallo that much.

Even though  we have log jam there, that's no reason to trade Kepler for peanuts. The shift ban is more likely to help Kepler. OF LH bats are a premium so I expect Kepler will be traded and probably Gallo.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

54 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I'm predicting that Kirilloff is healthy. He can take days off against tough LH's with Farmer at 3B and Miranda at 1B on those days. I also predict that Urshela will not put up the numbers he did in 2022 again this year. We'll see who is right after the 2023 season is done.

Kepler could still be traded like Rogers was just before last year. Also, something may happen when we can put Paddack and Lewis on the 60 day IL (maybe another team needs to put someone on the 60 day to open up a spot for Kepler - maybe Kepler and Pagan for a better relief pitcher).

This! The few reports I’ve seen in little blurb, hard to trust format, is that Kirilloff is swinging well and on-track for a normal spring training. we don’t know, doesn’t always mean “bad” it means we “don’t know”.

I share the same assumptions. If Kepler isn’t traded, Larnach gets a heavy rotation through DH.

[Dman]

If the Twins were keeping Kepler I can't see myself defending them grabbing Gallo.  Most of the baseball world didn't understand that move without the Twins moving a left handed outfield bat. 

I guess I don't completely understand comparing Gallo to Urshela though. It should be a Gallo, Kepler comparison straight up if you ask me.  I thought Urshela's replacement was Farmer who could actually play shortstop as well as other positions.  he was a right handed bat just like Urshela with more positional flexibility at a cheaper cost.  Gallo had nothing to do with that move IMO.  

While it might be nice to have Gio's right handed bat the cost seems high for a likely 1st base DH type player with Farmer likely getting first dibs in the field.

I didn't care for the return the Twins got but I thought it was a solid decision to move on from Urshela if they used the extra money wisely. I don't know if signing Gallo would be considered using it wisely but obviously the FO thinks so.

[Brandon]

I don’t think the logjam is as dire as it’s being made out to be here on this forum.  OF Gallo, OF Buxton, OF Kepler, backup is Taylor.  1B Killeroff DH Gordon or Larnarch only extra players are Larnarch or Gordon and Wallner.  It’s good to have depth for injuries.  We have 2 options at each of these 5 positions.  We won’t miss a beat if a player misses a month to injury.  
Kepler has more value to us as a RF, backup CF and 1B then Gio would as a backup 3B, 1B and occasional DH.  Because Kepler will play everyday in this scenario.  Gio will not. I like Gio as a player but he was too redundant.

[IA Bean Counter]

Boy it appears time plays tricks on us a bit.   

When we started the offseason it was clear the team was trying to manage the roster with a lot of potential possibilities that they thought the offseason would go.  I think they thought they had a shot at resigning Correa but they weren't sure.  They wanted Miranda preferably at 3rd and still do.  So in a very short order we traded Urshela and then got Farmer for essentially the same price we got Urshela for.  Yes Urshela is better than farmer but it made sense at the time.  Ultimately we are talking about 9-10 million dollars for Urshela.  We then used 11 million on Gallo.  The real question is between those 2 who has a better year,  my bet would be on Urshela but I could see Gallo winning that.  We have some flexibility with this roster,  and overall I don't think losing 1 year of Urshela is really that big of a deal.  Zips is expecting .280 average .340 OBP and 15 home runs for Urshella.  They expect Gallo to have .195 BA  .330 OBP and 25  home runs.   effectively slightly more upside with Gallo just on expected stats.   Eh,  we won't know until we play out the season but the offseason went over about as well as anyone could have expected, and if the biggest thing we can complain about is we would have been better off with Urshela than someone like Gallo . . .   well lets just say we must not have too much to complain about.   

[rwilfong86]

Hopefully Miranda doesn't become an error machine at 3rd.

[Heiny]

I agree with "DMAN" on this.  We replaced Gio with Farmer.  And I also believe that one or more of our LH corner outfielders will be traded by opening day, probably Kepler, but possibly Larnach or Walner (hopefully not Larnach, I have high expectations for him) or a combination in a package deal.  I'd love to see a more traditional good hitting 1B with power.  But I am really rooting for AK to be that guy.  Speculation is fun, but getting anxious for ST.  See you at the ballpark!

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Maybe I didn't read the article carefully enough, but given the current roster and that we're apparently not trading Kepler for prospects, who would you remove from the 40-man to make room to have kept Gio?

IMO, give me Gio over Kepler or Gallo. We don't need 6 left handed corner OFs on the 40 man roster, that's absolutely ridiculous. Sure, Gallo can move to 1B, but that eliminates his defensive value which is the safest way he contributes to a team.

I'd argue that if they were willing to hold out on a legitimate return for Kepler, who has been injured and terrible offensively for years now, that they either shouldn't have signed another left handed corner OF or shouldn't have traded Gio. Just value going to waste. 

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I'm predicting that Kirilloff is healthy. He can take days off against tough LH's with Farmer at 3B and Miranda at 1B on those days. I also predict that Urshela will not put up the numbers he did in 2022 again this year. We'll see who is right after the 2023 season is done.

Kepler could still be traded like Rogers was just before last year. Also, something may happen when we can put Paddack and Lewis on the 60 day IL (maybe another team needs to put someone on the 60 day to open up a spot for Kepler - maybe Kepler and Pagan for a better relief pitcher).

We can predict Kirilloff being healthy all we'd like, it's based on nothing more than hope on our end. At the last report he was taking 60-70 swings per day and still has legitimate soreness. Joey Gallo is going to see a lot of time at 1B.

[FlyingFinn]

2 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

was taking 60-70 swings per day and still has legitimate soreness.

I've heard about the swings but not the soreness. What report did I miss, what's the source?