Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #11-15

[Theo Tollefson]

Just outside the Top 10 Twins prospects, you will see names featured that can make big impact at all levels of the Twins farm system. See which prospects ranked 11 through 15. 

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson (Wallner), Steve Buhr (Festa), William Parmeter (Miller)

The outliers of the top 10 Twins prospects feature names that became more commonly known to avid Twins fans this last season. Two pitchers and three hitters are a part of this section of the rankings, and all have great potential to be big names for the Twins in the coming seasons. 

 

Here are the 11-15 ranked prospects going into the 2023 season.

15. RHP Matt Canterino 
Age: 25
2022 (Rk, AA): 12 starts, 37 IP, 1.95 ERA, 34.7% K, 15.3% BB

Canterino showed great flashes of success at Double-A Wichita last season posting a 1.95 ERA in 37 innings pitched. His pitches are still ranked at an average level in scouting grads with his slider and change-up as the outliers graded at 60 per FanGraphs, putting those pitches slightly above average.

The greatest struggle that Canterino has had in his professional career so far is his command of the strike zone. Canterino can top out at 97 and 98 mph with his fastball and if he can get his command under control as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, that can make him a greater threat to hitters on the mound. 

The downside for Canterino is he is going to miss most, if not all, of the 2023 season due to undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. If things progress well, there is a slight chance he could see some time on the mound come September. 

14. SS Noah Miller
Age: 20
2022 (A): 108 games, .212/.348/.279, 12 2B, 2 HR, 23/30 SB, 23.5% K, 16.2% BB

Noah Miller, the Twins second, first-round pick in 2021 out of high school in Wisconsin, played his first full season of professional ball in Ft. Myers. While his offense didn't develop, he did work counts, take his walks and put the ball in play. His power was limited to just two home runs and a .279 slugging percentage. Miller is still very young, having just turned 20 in November. There is still room and plenty of time for his power to develop. He is seen more as a contact hitter, that being his best attribute with a scouting grade of 60 according to FanGraphs. 

He is already arguably the best defensive shortstop in the Twins minor leagues right now. He provided consistency and the occasional web gem for the Mighty Mussels. No surprise as those who watched some spring training games saw what he could do late in big-league spring games.  

The hope for Miller is to develop his all-around game in 2023 to reach High-A Cedar Rapids before the season's end.

13. RHP David Festa
Age: 23
2022 (A/A+): 18 starts, 103.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 23.1% K, 8.6% BB 

David Festa pitched in only four games after being drafted in the 13th round by the Twins in 2021. In 2022, he became a starter and worked 103 2/3 innings. His story is very similar to Louie Varland's a year earlier. Day 3 draft pick dominated in the two A-ball levels. Now, Festa will have to show what he can do against hitters in the upper levels of the minor leagues.  

Festa’s performance across the 2022 season showed great development in his pitch command. His 34 walks to 108 strikeouts between Low-A and High-A brought about a 3.18 K/BB ratio, which shows great potential for better command development in his second full season. 

The scouting grade rankings for Festa still place him at an overall average ranking, but the 6’6 righty will do what he can to show he has a place in a future Twins rotation. Those numbers should change as his fastball was sitting 96-97 most of the year and touch 98 and 99 later in the season too. He will need to continue working on his secondary pitches as well. 

12. Yasser Mercedes
Age: 18
2022 (Rk): 41 games, .355/.421/.555, 13 2B, 4 HR, 30/35 SB, 19.9% K, 10.2% BB

Yasser Mercedes has only been in the Twins organization for a little over a year when he signed for $1.7 million, but he already made himself a standout in the DSL in 2022. Mercedes posted a fantastic triple slash and showed mature plate discipline for a 17-year-old across 176 plate appearances. 

Mercedes's skill set based on scouting grades is also a good place for him to be at his age with nothing ranking below an average grade of 50. Speed seems to be his greatest attribute as the youngster stole 30 bases in 35 attempts last season, being one of only six players in the Dominican Summer League to reach the 30 stolen base threshold. He also has power potential, plays solid defense and has a strong arm. 

It will still be a long while before Mercedes ends up in a Twins uniform, but the potential this 18-year-old has shown indicates that he could be the Twins' best prospect a couple of years from now. 

11. Matt Wallner 
Age: 25
2022 (AA/AAA): 128 games, .277/.412/.542, 32 2B, 27 HR, 9/14 SB, 31.3% K, 18.1% BB

The Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2022 and Forest Lake native made a name for himself throughout the 2022 season. Matt Wallner may have the best throwing arm in the outfield in all of the Twins organization right now, and he will have a chance to show it off at CHS Field and Target Field in 2023. 

Wallner’s power as a left-handed hitter also makes him a standout in the Twins system. Granted, the current Twins outfield depth with Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, Michael A Taylor, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton will likely leave Wallner starting his season with the St. Paul Saints. However, he will do his best like his teammate and fellow Minnesota native, Louie Varland, to make managerial choices for the 26-man roster as hard as possible. 

Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.

For more Twins Daily content on these five Twins prospects, click on the link with their name here: Matt Canterino, Noah Miller, David Festa, Yasser Mercedes, Matt Wallner. 

Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20 
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Coming Monday! 

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[mikelink45]

I like Wallner and Festa and hope Canterino gets his health back because he it the one I like best in this group of five.  The other two are long shots for MLB as far as my limited reading provides.  I do hope that if the Gallo experiment fizzles that Wallner will get some DH time. 

I know the trades reduced our overall quality and Balazovic took himself out of the top rankings or at least one of these would drop off.

[Nashvilletwin]

Canterino - backend starter or important BP asset as early as mid ‘24 

Miller - solid utility infielder; backup starting SS

Festa - see Canterino above; will compete against Winder, Varland, SWR, Canterino and, hopefully, Balazovic for ‘24 role.

Lewis - excellent lottery ticket 

Wallner - possible starting RF or DH in 2024 (assuming he gets needed MLB innings in ‘23)

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I always like these prospect rundowns by people who are actually paying attention.  Some of the national coverage can be a bit lacking.  Recently they still had Luis Arraez playing second base all of last year for the Twins and I remember when they had Joe Mauer still catching two years after he had stopped.  Those folks just don’t do their homework like you guys do.

Of these prospects, I really like Waller and Festa the most.  I think they both have potential to make some real impact with the big club - probably not much this year, but in 2024 and beyond.  Yassir Mercedes is a player that I remembered them signing (vaguely) but didn’t really know much about.  It’s good to get the update.  He’s still miles away from the majors, but his potential is definitely strong to be an impact player a few years down the road.  

Thanks for not letting us forget about these prospects who don’t make the Top 100 lists.  They often become very solid major league players.

[jmlease1]

I struggle with knowing how to evaluate guys like Mercedes; 18 years old coming off rookie ball? You could tell me he's top ten or down in the 20's and I would probably go "sure?" Great start, and nice to see a guy with great speed showing some skill at the plate, but he's got a lot of levels to go.

Festa looks like a player to watch this season. He took a significant leap last year and it'll be really interesting to see how he does in AA. The fastball looks legit and it's impressive to see him add the velocity. If he can refine his off-speed pitches, he could be another Varland-type player.

If Wallner makes enough contact, he'll be legit. If he doesn't, then he's more like a left-handed Brent Rooker. I expect he'll dominate AAA, just not sure if he can handle MLB pitching consistently.

Miller looks the part of a SS; it'll be interesting to see how his hit tool develops this season. He seems to be learning the strike zone pretty well, but he'll need some more hits. Might come as he matures and gets stronger. I expect to see him in high A this year.

Canterino just needs health, but those bastards at Rice might have ruined his arm. He's got all the talent in the world, but I don't know if he can stay healthy enough to start. It's a shame.

[D.C Twins]

I think 11-15 highlights how much depth we lost in the farm system after the trades last year.

Hopefully the pitchers we traded for justify that sacrifice with a good performance this year

[roger]

Question?  Who has the higher ceiling, Mercedes or ‘Em Rodriguez?  And how high are those ceilings?

The little we saw of Wallner in right field told me he needs lots of work.  Unless he improves a lot, the only position I want to see him playing is DH regardless how good his arm is.

[Dman]

I am already sold on Miller's defense so he has a utility role pretty much wrapped up with just slight improvement with the bat.  Still he graded out with plus contact skills at the plate in the draft and while a 23% K rate isn't bad you would think a guy with plus bat to ball skills would be in the mid teens for K rate.  He was only 19 and put on a show the first month with an .800 OPS so he can do it.  I kind of wonder if they had him working on increasing his bat speed or something to gain more power and if that affected him or maybe he just got worn down.  Hard to say but he will still only be 20 next year and I am bullish on his bat coming around.

I got to see Festa late in the season at Beloit and he didn't look particularly dominant that night and yet when you look at the box score he did pretty well.  I am not sold that thin body can hold up to rotation work but will have to wait and see.  He is going to need more polish to make it up the levels IMO.  Still you can't argue with the fastball speed and solid slider or his results from last year..  Another year should tell us whether pen or rotation I would think.

I hate to get too worked up over DSL numbers as when most of those guys get to the FCL they really struggle.  Still Mercedes offers a possible plus hit tool, plus power and plus run skills.  If the arm improves maybe a plus arm so a borderline 5 tool player.  That would be a nice get if he turns out.  If he keeps somewhat similar numbers at the FCL then the Twins did well to find him as he will be a fast mover.  Have to wait and see it could take a year or two to adjust to the better pitching he will face.

I have been low man on Wallner for a long time.  The K rate was too much for me to take.  He is finally starting to make a believer out of me.  He has been taking his walks and it seems that has helped him tremendously.  He has brought his K rate down to 30% still not ideal but better than it has been and OPS up.  He was an absolute monster at AA even after a horrid start.  AAA showed there is still more work to be done. While his .840 OPS there was very good if he wants to make the jump to MLB it will need to better.  Main thing to me is that he is improving and can be a viable MLB player whereas before I was getting concerned he might be a bust.  

Out of this list I like the two guys the farthest away.  I think that if those bat to ball skills return Miller could be a standout player.  I am hoping he come out hot and keeps it going this coming season.  If Mercedes hangs around those DSL numbers he probably is going to be a star player.  Even if he fails some at the FCL he is young for the level and wouldn't be a bust just maybe not quite ready yet.

This is a good solid list but all these players have something to prove next year.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I struggle with knowing how to evaluate guys like Mercedes; 18 years old coming off rookie ball? You could tell me he's top ten or down in the 20's and I would probably go "sure?"

I like to consider myself better than average at teasing out rough forecasts by eyeballing data, but no way am I trying that with 18-year olds below single-A ball.  Unless we have professional level skills at in-person evaluation, we have to content ourselves with going from the public evaluations by those who do have those fundamental skills.  If one of those people says, "he looks like a young Byron Buxton to me," for instance, that means more than a season's worth of stats in an instructional league. There is a nice evaluation of Mercedes at the MLB.com site that contains numerical ratings in the 50s for each of his tools (and an overall rating of 45 that I therefore don't quite understand), along with nuggets like "an athletic and projectable 6-foot-2 frame." That latter bit sounds like what they might have said about Buxton ten years ago, and comes from many factors including looking at close family members. All in all I look at it more as "an absence of red flags," really, but also to say "he'll probably end up bigger and stronger than Gilberto Celestino, yet just as athletic." But there are a ton of young players you can say these things about.

Where do you put "a young Byron Buxton" (and this is a phrase I totally pull out of the air by inference) at age 18 in a farm system's rankings?  Maybe right around where Mercedes is now, so as to say "he's too good already to just ignore as too young."

As you say, it's a struggle.  It's not just the lack of data.  It's that the player is so far from maturity (not just physically), and many paths in his life are still possible.  Will he someday be able to hit a major-league quality yakker? He likely can't now.  He could flame out before ever reaching AA; he could end up in the Hall of Fame.  Where *do* you rank prospects like that?

[DocBauer]

I have previously commented on Canterino when he was accidentally included in the previous list. I wonder how differently the rotation and the pipeline would be viewed right now if he doesn't develop the arm issue. He would very likely have been in the 2022 rotation for most, if not all, of the year. He could be projecting as one of the top 2 SP for 2023. It just feels like he might be destined for the pen. Still, I'd be really tempted to see if he could be a late arriving rotation piece first.

NOAH MILLER: Even watching his few appearances in the 2022 ST you could see the glove work and potential. The fact he makes contact and can control the zone tells me the bat has a future, even if power remains questionable. He's just got to be behind other prospects from warmer weather areas from a developmental standpoint doesn't he? As young as he is, is he better off repeating Ft Myers? Or better of "escaping" the tough to hit in FSL? I think we'll have a better feel for who he is a year from now. But I'm betting he's at Fr Myers for most, if not all, of the year.

DAVID FESTA: You gotta be excited about him don't you? Later round pick with velocity and good K numbers and low BB numbers at 2 different levels in his fist full season. I think what impressed me the most was him slipping a bit near the end of the year and then cranking it up with maybe his best performance come playoff time. I think he's top 10 next year at this time.

YASSER MERCEDES: I'm with Jmlease1 that it's just hard to know how to quantify the prospect status  of a 17-18yo kid playing rookie ball in another country. I think the best you can do...besides just observing athleticism...is to simply examine him and his results to his peers. And from that standpoint, he sure seemed to excel. But for any teenager, we just don't really know who they are, or will be, for a couple of years.

MATT WALLNER: I think he's ready right now...for a team not looking to compete for a division championship and the playoffs. He still has less than half a season at AAA. He may be a large man, but he's athletic and moves well. That arm is a cannon! But he lacks polish and a little more time at St Paul would do him some good. He may always strike out a lot, but you saw him in 2022 get better and better month by month. Good or great will be determined by continued hard work.

 

[FlyingFinn]

Give me a pitcher who throws 98, strikes out a lot of batters, doesn't walk many, and doesn't get injured - David Festa.

Certainly can dream about the potential of Mercedes and Emma Rodriguez roaming the Twins OF and being 5 tool players.

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Question?  Who has the higher ceiling, Mercedes or ‘Em Rodriguez?  And how high are those ceilings?

Signing Bonuses: Rodriguez ($2.5 million), Mercedes ($1.7 million)... Tools. Both could hit. Both have a ton of power. Both have good speed. Both can legitimately play CF at this point. Both have strong arms. 

So, I'd say pretty even... Might come down to who walks more and strikes out less. 

But they're both 4-5 tool prospects at this stage, with a long way to go, but could be All-Star potential.  

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I got to see Festa late in the season at Beloit and he didn't look particularly dominant that night and yet when you look at the box score he did pretty well.  I am not sold that thin body can hold up to rotation work but will have to wait and see.  He is going to need more polish to make it up the levels IMO.  Still you can't argue with the fastball speed and solid slider or his results from last year..  Another year should tell us whether pen or rotation I would think.

I wouldn't make too much out of a late-season start by a starter in his first full season of pro ball. He stayed healthy. He added velocity. He pitched well at two levels. Now he got an offseason and let's see what he is able to do in Season #2. Can he be this year's Varland? We'll see. And with that velocity, if he does end up being at reliever, he could be great. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Question?  Who has the higher ceiling, Mercedes or ‘Em Rodriguez?  And how high are those ceilings?

I know everybody wants to learn the rankings in some computer game.   Out of the Park seems to put effort into their scouting reports, and both players earn a three-star ceiling, which is "pretty good" but not "future Hall of Famer good."  (Only Buxton among outfielders ranks better in the system.) The scouts they rely on like Rodriguez's bat a little better; they like Mercedes's range on defense a little better and give him a better chance at sticking in CF though neither projects as an elite defender there.  The ratings for batting eye (Ks and BBs) are remarkably similar between them.  Those evaluations probably date back to a year ago though.

As Seth said, the consensus is probably "pretty even" to one another for now.

[Seth Stohs]

My rankings of this group: 

Matt Wallner: 9
Yasser Mercedes: 10
David Festa: 13
Noah Miller: 19
Matt Canterino: 14 

[D.C Twins]

Festa = Future Elite Bullpen Asset (a la Duran)

Wallner = nice depth to have this year and maybe more in the future

[se7799]

11 hours ago, roger said:

Question?  Who has the higher ceiling, Mercedes or ‘Em Rodriguez?  And how high are those ceilings?

The little we saw of Wallner in right field told me he needs lots of work.  Unless he improves a lot, the only position I want to see him playing is DH regardless how good his arm is.

Great question.  While I have been very high on Rodriquez and believe he will be a top 20 prospect this time next year.  I've been able to watch him play alot and his Latin coaches speak very highly of his character leadership and tools.  I havne seen or met  Mercedes yet but have heard great attributes of him as well.  We should have a much clearer view of them both this time next year considering they both stay healthy.  However neither of them quite have a Buxton ceiling yet. We should see a big year from Emma.

[Tiantwindup]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Festa = Future Elite Bullpen Asset (a la Duran)

Wallner = nice depth to have this year and maybe more in the future

FESTA = Future Elite STarter Asset fits his name better (as well as my hopes)!

[se7799]

12 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I think 11-15 highlights how much depth we lost in the farm system after the trades last year.

Hopefully the pitchers we traded for justify that sacrifice with a good performance this year

I feel these are really quality prospects.  Three high round draft picks, a large bonus international signing and Canterino was higher this time last year....for our 11-15 prospects is solid.  In my opinion anyway.  We shall see how they fair though.

[Monkeypaws]

I like the fact that there are lots of international signings in these lists.

Whether it because you are paying more attention to them, or they are just better than in years past, it's nice to see.

[saviking]

Yasser Mercedes has one thing you can't teach and that's speed. Yes he has to prove himself A ball and grow into his body, but the fact he stole 30-35 attempts and can cover a lot of ground in the outfield gives him a chance ..

[jkcarew]

It’ll be interesting to see how successful Waller will be making the adjustments after having got that first taste. I don’t know what to make of him. I don’t think he can be an everyday starting OF in the majors…at least with a contending team. It’s pretty brutal. And that raises the bar on what the bat has to be to provide value as a 1B (or DH). On the other hand, he seems to have the makings of a good handle on the strike zone. If the K rate can comes down a little…he might really be an offensive weapon, because I think the power and OBP would be there.

[Trov]

I remember when we drafted Canterino the big question for him was if his arm would hold up.  He was coming from Rice, who seems to burn out their pitchers.  Hopefully he can come back and be a top guy, but he may be destined for pen spot because of arm holding up. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 hours ago, jkcarew said:

It’ll be interesting to see how successful Waller will be making the adjustments after having got that first taste. I don’t know what to make of him. I don’t think he can be an everyday starting OF in the majors…at least with a contending team. It’s pretty brutal. And that raises the bar on what the bat has to be to provide value as a 1B (or DH). On the other hand, he seems to have the makings of a good handle on the strike zone. If the K rate can comes down a little…he might really be an offensive weapon, because I think the power and OBP would be there.

I'm baffled that we can discount his odds after what he did last year.

[MN_ExPat]

On 2/4/2023 at 10:18 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Canterino - backend starter or important BP asset as early as mid ‘24 

Miller - solid utility infielder; backup starting SS

Festa - see Canterino above; will compete against Winder, Varland, SWR, Canterino and, hopefully, Balazovic for ‘24 role.

Lewis - excellent lottery ticket 

Wallner - possible starting RF or DH in 2024 (assuming he gets needed MLB innings in ‘23)

You have (Royce) Lewis as a Lottery ticket now?  I know some folks are worried about how quickly he recovers, but man, that is some tough evaluation.  I thought I was cold hearted.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

You have (Royce) Lewis as a Lottery ticket now?  I know some folks are worried about how quickly he recovers, but man, that is some tough evaluation.  I thought I was cold hearted.

What year was he last healthy?

[MN_ExPat]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

What year was he last healthy?

Legit question... but I was making light that anyone named Lewis wasn't in the 11-15 List.  Just having some good natured fun 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Legit question... but I was making light that anyone named Lewis wasn't in the 11-15 List.  Just having some good natured fun 

The internet is so hard to get context sometimes. In fairness, I think he's going to be good. 

[MN_ExPat]

On 2/4/2023 at 11:39 AM, roger said:

The little we saw of Wallner in right field told me he needs lots of work.  Unless he improves a lot, the only position I want to see him playing is DH regardless how good his arm is.

I'm pretty sure I understand and can see where your coming from in that evaluation. 

Although admittedly, I'm probably waaay more optimistic about his defense, and thought he actually showed a lot of really good athleticism.  The piggy back to that being that yes, I do feel he needs to further improve his routes and fly ball reads some, but the talent to play the open prairie is there. 

[MN_ExPat]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The internet is so hard to get context sometimes. In fairness, I think he's going to be good. 

All good, totally get it.  Especially since my humor (or lack thereof as the wife likes to say ) tends to the dry and subtle side.  Often doesn't translate well to the electronic medium .