How Does the Twins' Starting Pitching Depth Compare to the Rest of the Division?

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins have what looks to be much better depth in their starting pitching department this year. Surely some of their arms that start the year in the Triple-A rotation will make an impact in the big leagues this season. So how does this group of extra starters compare to the rest of the division?

 

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 

Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 

As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 

That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 

Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 

After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 

Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?

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The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 

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On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 

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The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.

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The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 

 

As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 

What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.

 

 

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[strumdatjag]

I would take Cleveland’s starting pitching over the Twins.   When a ball club can trot out an ace two out of five days that trumps DEPTH, especially in the post season. 

[Karbo]

On paper the staff looks pretty good. However, the game isn't played on paper. As we saw last season things can change in a blink of an eye. I am still hoping to turn Ober into a reliever as I see his "stuff" playing well there. I feel Varland and SWR will be good MLB pitchers eventually but I also feel they will need to take their lumps in the growing stage. Not so sure about Balzavic though. I hope last year was just an off year but who knows?

[miracleb]

Good write up!   The top three for Cleveland is going to be hard to compete with again this year!

[mikelink45]

This challenges me since I do not know the minor league arms for the other teams and read about our prospects regularly on TD.  I will still put Cleveland first,  KC and Chicago have potential.  All I can say is this it the best rotation that this FO has ever had and I have hopes for health and production, but also want to see some young arms show well for when injury or free agency decimates the roster. 

[jmlease1]

10 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

I would take Cleveland’s starting pitching over the Twins.   When a ball club can trot out an ace two out of five days that trumps DEPTH, especially in the post season. 

Sure, but the question is about depth. And after last season's adventures (where we were already on our 10th starter before June, as noted above), clearly depth matters. I don't think anyone is saying the Twins have a better rotation than Cleveland, but the depth we have (both in MLB and in AAA) arguably makes us better able to withstand injuries this season.

Chicago might be in big trouble if any of their starters get hurt/suspended early. Lynn only made 21 starts last season and now he's 36. Clevinger might have Bauer-ed his season.

[pierre75275]

If the Twins started a 6 man rotation and also had a 6 man rotation in AAA, the AAA rotation would have more upside than what they trotted out in Minneapolis in 2022 after Ryan and Gray.

St Paul could start Winder, SWR, Jordan B, Varland, Ronny H, and Cole Sands. That would assume Ober starts with the big club.

That doesn't leave a AAA starting spot even with 6 man rotations at the big club and St Paul for Dobnak, Derek Rodriquez, recently signed Aaron Sanchez, or Jose Deleon.

However, if you want to make the argument that Ronny H and Cole Sands should be in the bullpen, than that would open up a spot and with the inevitable injury or two...but it seems to me we have a lot of starters, much higher quality and depth at AAA than we had in the rotation at the big club to start last year.

And that doesn't even count Paddock who may be back as soon as July or August.

 

 

[Blyleven2011]

A solid starting pitching staff with depth and as posted by others is the best depth this FO has accumulated  up to now ...

It's a solid staff and enough to be competitive and win the division but I still question if it is good enough to contend and beat a playoff team ... 

Time will tell , we'll see them win the teams they are supposed too but I will be watching how they compete against the better teams and a quality pitcher ...

Go twins ... 

[pierre75275]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

I would take Cleveland’s starting pitching over the Twins.   When a ball club can trot out an ace two out of five days that trumps DEPTH, especially in the post season. 

I get that. But if McKenzie and Bieber get injured Cleveland is sunk.

If the Twins lose any 2 of Gray/Lopez/Ryan/Mahle they are in a much better situation to still be successful.

One could even argue that Cleveland losing 1 of their top guys in the starting staff would be more detrimental to the club than the Twins losing all of their top 3 to injury, whichever top 3 you want to pick.

[CRF]

Tough to answer this question right now. We've got a lot of arms/bodies, and if they're all healthy for the most part, we've maybe got something decent going on depth-wise. I think everyone probably agrees that Cleveland's starters are probably better overall. Especially Bieber and McKenzie. We'll know more about our guys once the season gets under way. If we can dodge the injury bullet, I like our chances. 

[LastOnePicked]

"The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury?"

I have to admit, I am very tired of starting a season hoping that a competitor's aces get sidelined so that the Twins can squeak by with a division win. This article was a bitter reminder that Cleveland's pipeline just keeps on flowing, with we're still waiting for even a single #2 starter to be developed (or even signed) from this supposedly pitching-focused FO.

[dougd]

Baseball Prospectus has Cleveland's top three prospects as starting pitchers likely to make it to the majors this year: Espino, Williams, and Bibee. The first two are in their top 100 prospect list.

[MTV]

I know this year will be better already. Lopez-Gray-Ryan-Mahle-Maeda with Ober in the pen is already a good rotation, but having guys like Josh Winder, Louie Varland and Simeon Woods-Richardson as opposed to Chi Chi Gonzalez and a struggling Cole Sands really does look better, even if 2-3 of the starters go down at the same time.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, dougd said:

Baseball Prospectus has Cleveland's top three prospects as starting pitchers likely to make it to the majors this year: Espino, Williams, and Bibee. The first two are in their top 100 prospect list.

There was an article last October that stated that Cleveland could plug all three of Espino, Williams, and Bibee in to their rotation, but the Guardians tend to want their starters to earn their way ahead of others through demonstrated command and control of their pitches.

Cleveland has the best rotation and the most depth with the most upside at this time.

I wonder if the Guardians might eventually turn Sam Hentges back to starting. He is a tough at bat for hitters. Right now he is really valuable in the Cleveland bullpen. Hentges compares favorably to Jhoan Duran. Fans of both teams are curious about whether each might be effective starters, but each is needed in their current slots in the pen.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

"The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury?"

I have to admit, I am very tired of starting a season hoping that a competitor's aces get sidelined so that the Twins can squeak by with a division win. This article was a bitter reminder that Cleveland's pipeline just keeps on flowing, with we're still waiting for even a single #2 starter to be developed (or even signed) from this supposedly pitching-focused FO.

This won't make you feel better, but the Guardians have two pitchers on the mlb.com prospect list at numbers 16 and 65.  

Keith Law has their pitching prospects at 33, 36, and 42. 

ESPN has them at 18, 33, 53 and 93.

No matter who your choice ranker is the Guardians do not look like their pipeline has dried up. 

[PatPfund]

One upside to the depth (especially if the players perform and stay healthy) is that it may set us up for an interesting trade deadline. But first we have to stay healthy and perform so we aren't just selling for the future in July.

[Oldtimer]

2 hours ago, MTV said:

I know this year will be better already. Lopez-Gray-Ryan-Mahle-Maeda with Ober in the pen is already a good rotation, but having guys like Josh Winder, Louie Varland and Simeon Woods-Richardson as opposed to Chi Chi Gonzalez and a struggling Cole Sands really does look better, even if 2-3 of the starters go down at the same time.

Agree...that's how I see it also. Archer and Bundy were drags on both the rotation and bullpen last year.

[cHawk]

I can confidently state that I’m pleased with our starting five, specifically that we won’t be relying on the likes of Bundy, Archer, Happ, and Shoemaker. That said, if injuries cut through our rotation like a hot knife through butter (again) it won’t look the slightest bit better. Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Balazovic have zero major league experience. If three of five spots in our rotation are occupied by those three at any point we will NOT be in good shape, I guarantee you. 

As far as how our rotation stacks up against the rest of the central, Cleveland is far superior in this regard. They’re more top heavy and their depth is better. Unless injuries cut through their rotation like a hot knife through butter, we won’t see a large portion of their AAA pitchers.

As for the White Sox, Giolito was below average last year. He’s a question mark. Only two of their pitchers in which you listed (Lynn and Cease) were above average last year.

I’ll take our rotation over that of Detroit and KC. We should be in good shape for 2023. It would, of course, be nice if we had a bonafide ace.

[sun]

Rotations aren't measured in a vacuum but against hitters & fielders, both theirs & ours. Also since, starters do not pitch the whole game they get replaced by the bullpen. Some pitchers improve while others regress year to year and in a random fashion on a game-to-game basis. We have many different hitters/fielders & pitching options as do other teams, and as we travel around the whole league this year each opponent will field different combinations and the proof of performance will emerge by our win-loss record. 

I've always believed our starting pitchers only need to keep the game close enough for our hitters to win the game when the bullpen takes over. Rocco plays a big part of making so many decisions. Fans just need to believe that there's so much more to baseball than the starting pitchers. Sometimes a game doesn't begin until the starting pitchers are knocked out of the game, and it's up to our hitters to wear them out. Let's hope that our team can win more games across the MLB than the rest of the Division. Starting pitchers only represent one aspect of a team's overall ability to win games.

[Unwinder]

I'm just really happy that there are NO pitchers in the opening-day rotation who I'm going to be disappointed to see. Like if I decide to go to a game on any given Thursday night, there's currently no chance that I'm going to look up the lineup for the game and get bummed out that I'm in for a night of Archer or Bundy or Chi Chi Gonzalez. All five of the projected starting rotation are guys I'm excited to watch, and so are probably the first five depth options (though for some I'm more excited about prospect intrigue than impressive performance).

We actually have a level of depth where, until injuries kick in, I'm not even likely to see a truly boring filler guy starting at the SAINTS.

Is this more competitive than Cleveland having multiple actual aces? Probably not, but it's really nice to be a be able to expect to see a fun pitching performance at any given game.

Just imagine! An entire year of not reading a recap and seeing the starting pitcher described as a "desiccated husk!"

[twins_89]

The Twins starting pitcher depth looks good on paper, but there are still serious questions because of health issues. The quality of the depth will come down to how many games Mahle, Maeda, Winder, Ober, and Paddack are available. 

[DocBauer]

Have stated before, and sure I will again, I never like to move someone from the rotation to the pen too early. You never know when that new grip on a change makes a huge difference. Or a prospect suddenly comes up with a slurve or cutter they didn't have before. That being said, having watched Sands last year, I just feel he's destined for the pen and maybe that transition should take place now. Henriquez I'm not as sure about. IIRC he was much better the 2nd half of 2022 and he's got some great stuff. I believe he's only going to be 23 this year. With his lack of pure physical size, can he maintain his stuff as a starter?  Again, I don't want to move anyone too soon. But I can see him in the pen as well. 

I like Varland and SWR. My concern isn't talent, but it's a half season or less at AAA. If/when they are needed, I hope it's at least a month or so in to the season as I just want them on a role. But maybe I'm overthinking things? Still think Winder has a chance, just needs to have his shoulder 100% And Balazovic is just too talented to not expect a bounceback this season.

So that's at least 4 depth options that are young and talented, if not exactly proven at the ML level. I think a healthy Dobnak could really help at some point as well. Not sure as to why mention of him as a depth piece brings out so much negativity at times. I just don't how his finger is doing.

**Aaron Sanchez was just re-signed. I thought he actually looked decent last season, so he might be a an OK 7th-8th option wr hope we never need.

I'm not going to discount Cleveland at all. I can see the arguement of greater depth. Not sure I care. It's the best talent/depth I can remember for a very long time and that's what I care about.

[Fatbat]

Both SP staffs look very solid with depth in the minors. Its really all about who stays healthy and performs above expectations. 

[Nine of twelve]

11 hours ago, pierre75275 said:

If the Twins started a 6 man rotation and also had a 6 man rotation in AAA, the AAA rotation would have more upside than what they trotted out in Minneapolis in 2022 after Ryan and Gray.

St Paul could start Winder, SWR, Jordan B, Varland, Ronny H, and Cole Sands. That would assume Ober starts with the big club.

That doesn't leave a AAA starting spot even with 6 man rotations at the big club and St Paul for Dobnak, Derek Rodriquez, recently signed Aaron Sanchez, or Jose Deleon.

However, if you want to make the argument that Ronny H and Cole Sands should be in the bullpen, than that would open up a spot and with the inevitable injury or two...but it seems to me we have a lot of starters, much higher quality and depth at AAA than we had in the rotation at the big club to start last year.

And that doesn't even count Paddock who may be back as soon as July or August.

 

 

I have hopes that Paddack (note speeling) won't have to be rushed back because our starting depth will be holding up just fine without him.

[JD-TWINS]

Seems our quantity of arms sets us apart in a battle of attrition. Our competitors may not have health issues & then everything is leveled.

I have seen Mahle throw for 3 plus years in Cinti. & he has good enough stuff to give any line-up trouble a couple times through…..then he starts to drift. Still a positive arm. Also, seems there’s enough knowledge of P. Lopez to expect good things. Ryan & Gray were our two stable guys last year….,,,hoping for more of the same without too much drift.

Too many variables in the air to predict anything after our first 4 guys. We have many options is a fair statement & eventually we should find a couple competent replacements if needed.

Our top 4 guys have all achieved double digit Wins in a season & done so recently. To have that level of achievement with all top 4 starters & with that capability being very realistic in the next 3-4 options, we’re in good shape. We don’t have Bundy nor Archer types this year - guys will be going after hitters & not just hoping to get through 4 innings w/o blowing up.

I like our entire staff (would like experienced FA added in Pen) and we are deep enough with starters & Pen arms to ultimately land on solid guys performing consistently.

5 guys starting with 5-6 other options in St. Paul 

8 guys in Pen with 4-5 other options in St. Paul 

We need 13 performers out of 22 or so guys. I like the depth & our chances.

[heresthething]

20 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This won't make you feel better, but the Guardians have two pitchers on the mlb.com prospect list at numbers 16 and 65.  

Keith Law has their pitching prospects at 33, 36, and 42. 

ESPN has them at 18, 33, 53 and 93.

No matter who your choice ranker is the Guardians do not look like their pipeline has dried up. 

As I was reading those rankings the question pops up again. How can Falvey, who was supposed to be in the know and contributing to that Cleveland pipeline, at 6 years in with the Twins not even come close to what Cleveland has?

[TL]

There is a clear path and potential to have a top end rotation with the top 6 guys.

1. You start with the young but established guys who realistically have more upside to what are already solid #3 credentials (Lopez, Ryan). If just one of these guys takes the next step it will be huge for the rotation.
2. Maeda should be fully recovered; it may take a few months but he could eventually resemble something close to what he was in 2021 (which was a #1). It is also a contract year for him and his last chance to get paid and make-up for the years he has been underpaid.
3. Mahle and Gray staying healthy (a wildcard for sure) would each be expected to provide top end #3 type numbers, at least.
4. Ober had better stats than any of them last year (in only 11 starts of course). The good news is his injury was not arm-related and I don't recall him having an injury history in the minors. 

Injuries will happen at some point, but the good news is we are not depending on just one or two young guys to break out in the minors. Varland and SWR seem most likely but there are plenty behind them who may surprise in 2023. 

[weitz41]

1 though 10 I'd take the Twins. 1 through 5 Cleveland.

If I remember right Cleveland had very few injuries last season. At one point last season I counted 18 Twins on the IL and Cleveland had 2 or 3. I highly doubt either team will repeat their luck good or bad this coming season. 

Also, Triston McKenzie may be an ace, but one good season isn't enough for me to call him one yet. The season before he had a 4.95 era and 4.5 walks per nine. 

[Otaknam]

On 2/4/2023 at 7:04 AM, strumdatjag said:

I would take Cleveland’s starting pitching over the Twins.   When a ball club can trot out an ace two out of five days that trumps DEPTH, especially in the post season. 

 

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

1 though 10 I'd take the Twins. 1 through 5 Cleveland.

If I remember right Cleveland had very few injuries last season. At one point last season I counted 18 Twins on the IL and Cleveland had 2 or 3. I highly doubt either team will repeat their luck good or bad this coming season. 

Also, Triston McKenzie may be an ace, but one good season isn't enough for me to call him one yet. The season before he had a 4.95 era and 4.5 walks per nine. 

Yup! There is no substitute for top of the rotation starters. Twins have lots of number three starters, maybe a number two somewhere. Hopefully someone emerges.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

 

Yup! There is no substitute for top of the rotation starters. Twins have lots of number three starters, maybe a number two somewhere. Hopefully someone emerges.

All 5 guys gotta pitch every week so having a maybe #2 & last year’s #1 (Ryan) going as a #4 this year works. We have equally or better guys from #2 - #5 v. most staffs & 3 or 4 more #5’s in St Paul if needed.