Five Remaining Free Agent Relievers the Twins Should Consider Signing

[Adam Friedman]

Many analysts and projections have suggested the Twins' bullpen could be a significant strength in 2023. That is likely true, but the Twins could benefit from adding additional bullpen depth in free agency.

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

As constructed, the Twins are an injury or two away from Trevor Megill or Emilio Pagán being thrust into high-leverage situations much more frequently than they should be. Twins fans saw last year that those pitchers are not well suited for such situations. 

Luckily for the Twins, in an offseason where free agents flew off the shelf, there are still a few relievers available who can provide the Twins with valuable additional depth. I've compiled a list of five of the most attractive options available, utilizing Jon Becker's extremely helpful free agent matrix. A couple are much more exciting than the rest, but any of the five could be a valuable addition to the Twins. 

The Best Options
Matt Moore
After a long and winding path that included a stop in Japan in 2020, Moore found himself amongst the elite relievers in 2022 as a 33-year-old. It was his first season as a full-time reliever, and he thrived in that role.

With increased fastball velocity and heavy usage of a faster curveball with more vertical break, Moore completely dominated right-handed hitters as a lefty. He had an elite 11.17 K/9 vs. righties, allowing just a .537 OPS. He was good against lefties, too, with fewer strikeouts but still giving up an OPS of just .634. His dominance against righties, paired with his solid performance against lefties, resulted in a ridiculous 1.95 ERA and 2.98 FIP, a statistic that removes defense from the ERA equation to focus on what the pitcher can control.

While his results indicated reverse splits, meaning he was better against right-handed hitters as a left-handed pitcher, he had a worse FIP (3.08) against righties than lefties (2.70). He will likely have more neutral splits moving forward, meaning he may be equally good against righties and lefties. 

The Twins have a few solid lefties in Caleb Thielbar, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe, but bringing in Moore or a different lefty still could make sense for the Twins. Moran has reverse splits and will likely start the year at AAA, so Thielbar is the only lefty with normal splits vs. lefties. If Moore's splits remain reversed, he will face mostly righties anyways, and if they become more neutral, he would give Thielbar a partner against lefties. Moore is coming off a great season and is one of the best free agent options available to add to the bullpen. 

Andrew Chafin
Like Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin had a great 2022 as a veteran left-handed reliever. Chafin also had reverse splits in 2022 with Detroit. Unlike Moore, Chafin has made a tremendous career as a reliever, having not started since he made three starts in 2014 as a rookie. Chafin has a career-long sample size of traditional splits, where he's been better against lefties than righties. 

Chafin was not quite as dominant as Moore in 2022, still posting an outstanding 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP. Chafin's track record of being a reliable middle reliever or setup man makes him an excellent option for the Twins. He would considerably raise the floor of the bullpen unit and be much more trustworthy in high-leverage situations than the guys whose innings he'd be replacing. Adding a back-end-level reliever also helps the rest of the bullpen by pushing everybody below him down one slot in the pecking order.  

Chafin is also the ideal prototype of a reliever. He put up a 10.52 K/9 in 2022 while only giving up 2.98 BB/9. He also kept the ball on the ground far more than he had since 2017, which is a great way to keep the ball in the ballpark. That combination is exactly what any team is looking for when holding the lead. Chafin would be an excellent addition to the strong Twins' bullpen, pitching in the middle or late innings. 

Best of the Rest
Michael Fulmer
Converting from starter to reliever in 2021, Michael Fulmer posted a 2.97 ERA and 3.46 FIP and followed that with a solid 2022, putting up a 3.39 ERA and 3.57 FIP. 

Of course, his solid 2022 led the Twins to trade for Fulmer at the trade deadline. His performance was less dominant when he came over but was solid for the Twins, with a 3.70 ERA and 4.13 FIP. 

He is not without some flaws. Fulmer's slider is an elite pitch, which makes him dominant against righties, but he struggles mightily against lefties, giving up a hideous .960 OPS. With the three-batter minimum, this type of reliever is less valuable than it once was, but the Twins can still pick spots where his skillset is appropriate, especially in the middle innings.

It's possible the Twins could work with Fulmer to improve his fastball or changeup to perform better against left-handed hitters, but they likely would have already signed him if they had such a plan. Fulmer is a very solid pitcher who would add depth to the bullpen. Unlike Moore and Chafin, he would likely slot into the middle innings rather than the highest-leverage situations.

Brad Hand
In recent off-seasons, the Twins were in the relief market, and in those off-seasons, Chaska's own, Brad Hand, has come up amongst some Twins fans. The 32-year-old has starred in relief since moving to the bullpen full-time in 2016. From 2016-20, Hand had an ERA below 3.30- usually below three and a FIP below 3.20. 

The southpaw’s extended run of excellence ended in 2021, when he got crushed, with a 3.90 ERA and extremely concerning 4.58 FIP. He went from a great strikeout pitcher to well below average, which seems most responsible for his demise. Not all pitchers necessarily rely on strikeouts and whiffs, but Hand gave up a lot of hard contact when the whiffs and strikeouts went away.

In 2022, Hand's 2.80 ERA indicated that he still might have something left to give. Unfortunately, his 3.93 FIP indicates that he still isn't somebody to be trusted. The strikeouts dipped further, but he did at least do a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. Still, his batted ball data mirrored his tough 2021 much more than the prior five great years. Anecdotally, when I asked my obnoxious Philly fan friend about him, he said, "Ugh, he's the worst." This sentiment, of course, perfectly lines up with the underlying data. 

Some pitchers beat the batted ball data and FIP and produce low ERAs as Hand did in 2022. Maybe he can do it again, and if he can, it would be worth bringing him home to Minnesota on a low-risk one-year deal. 

Will Smith
As many of the right-handed reliever free agents were scooped up already, Will Smith is one last lefty to take a look at. The 33-year-old former all-star struggled in 2021 and 2022, but there are some reasons to think he can still help a team out in his batted ball data. 

Smith's 3.97 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 2022 may not tell the entire story for his season. His 22 innings in Houston after being traded from Atlanta were very solid. He had a 3.27 ERA and a phenomenal 2.66 FIP after the trade compared to a 4.38 ERA and 5.22 FIP before the trade. 

Looking at the batted ball data from 2021 and 2022, Will Smith looks like a reliable reliever but not the star he once was. The Twins could use the guy the data indicates he is. In 2022, Smith had a 3.57 xERA; in 2021, he had a 3.37 xERA—an above-average strikeout rate, whiff rate, and barrel rate drove this success. Smith also dominated against lefties but struggled against righties, so with Jovani Moran's reverse splits, Smith would serve as the Twins' second lefty behind Thielbar, which could be important when Thielbar is unavailable.

Smith has always struggled with walks and no longer flaunts elite strikeout rates like he once did. But he's still a well above-average pitcher by the batted ball data, and when considering his numbers against the current bottom of the bullpen pecking order, bringing him in is a no-brainer.  

The Twins' bullpen could be as good as any in recent memory. That's the nature of having Jhoan Duran. There are other outstanding pitchers with Duran in the bullpen, but signing Moore or Chafin would solidify the bullpen as one of the best in baseball. Even adding one of the free agents from the "Best of the Rest" category would go a long way. If they solidify the unit, Twins fans should be able to breathe easily late in ball games, for once.

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

I agree, add Moore first if possible. If not, add Chafin. How much would they each cost? 

[cmoss84]

Wouldn't be opposed to signing any of these guys. Also wouldn't mind buying a lottery ticket or 2...Giles, Alex Reyes, converting Wacha, etc.

[CRF]

Not overly interested in any of those guys. Maybe Moore, but that would be it. 

[GKuehl]

I would love a Moore or Chafin signing -- they raise the floor of the bullpen and relegate Pagan to mop-up duty (WHICH IS A GREAT THING). A top 5 of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moore/Chafin would be glorious, especially with the upside of Alcala and Moran as our 6th and 7th best relievers. 

[Shaitan]

I'm fine with 1-2 depth deals. If its a one year deal, you just cut them in May and pull from the minors.

It's easier to stockpile arms now, and get them into playing shape, than to do so in the middle of the season.

[rv78]

The FO has already said the bullpen is not a top priority. That's quite obvious since Pagan is still on the roster.

[Cris E]

Meh. Chafin is the only one I'd look at. He's consistently produced a FIP below 4 while getting results. The others have results all over the place while the FIP stays high. Moore is exactly the wrong guy, as he's only managed to be above average once since 2015. He had a great 2022, but he threw a 67 ERA+ in 2021, essentially missed all of 19 and 20, and threw ERA+ of 72, 98, 77 and 70 in 2015-18. You already have Pagan and his magical 2019, light a candle and hope that guy comes back next year and save whatever Moore would cost.

EDIT:  We have a raft of kids that need innings. Get Sands or Ronnie H a bag of seeds and send them to the bullpen to learn how to watch a game from the outfield. 

[JD-TWINS]

After the read it seems Chafin is the best option! I think Smith/Hand wouldn’t cost much but it seems they would have us muttering under our breath about every 3rd appearance & that’s what we’re trying to avoid. Fulmer/Moore would at least show we care & are trying to put best competitive product on the field.

My optimal Pen:

Chafin - Maeda - Jax - Moran - Megill - Duran - Thielbar - Alcala      (López/Pagán)

If we could move López & Pagán for some teenagers & use their salary to pay for Chafin, I’m all in!!

I don’t want Moran/Megill/Alcala at AAA just because Pagán & López both make 5 times as much money. Neither performed last year in game situations with good stuff. I’m sure they’ll look encouraging at Spring Training but they both throw way too many center/center fastballs that get rocked!

[singlesoverwalks]

I was looking at the Fangraphs stat "meltdowns." A relief pitcher gets stuck with a meltdown when their appearance has a -0.06 win expectancy. Jax actually tied for the league lead in this category with 17. He was also 41st in the opposite of meltdowns - shutdowns - with 25. He had the 31st most appearances in the league.

[miller761]

Does Moran have an option left?

 

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Does Moran have an option left?

 

He has 2 options remaining.

[HoskenPowell]

Trade Kepler for a bp arm and try and sign Chafin.

[Heiny]

I don't think the Twins will do anything with free agents until spring training.  I don't think they want to drop anyone from the 40 man, so until they gain 3 spots via IL,  they won't sign anyone unless it is a trade of someone already on our 40 man roster.  Once they gain those 3 spots, I believe they will be going after another relief arm.  Howeverrrrr, a trade of a LH batting corner outfielder could still be a possibility.

[Karbo]

Just read they signed A. Sanchez to a minor league deal.

[Rosterman]

If the Twins are carrying eight bullpen arms, I would welcome the third lefty. Interesting if Moran starts the season. Him and Thielbar both made multi-inning appearances. A lefty to fill out games started by the righties would be a big plus for  the Twins, who hopefully will get six innings in the least out of three of their rotation arms this season.

[darin617]

Forgot about Corey Knebel and Zack Britton