The Battle for the 5th Rotation Spot (Maeda V.S Ober)

[jorgenswest]

On 2/3/2023 at 4:03 AM, Brad.dahlen said:

What WOULD I do? I'd have Ober be the 5th starter and have Maeda pitch the middle innings. He has experience doing it (and excelled). Ober is a young arm that I really like.

 

But the writing is on the wall that Maeda will be the 5 and Ober will likely start the year in St. Paul. Ober has options left and they already said Maeda will not be moving to the 'pen. 

 

Either way, we've learned every year that even if Ober starts in St. Paul he is pretty likely to make a start or 2 in April. 

 

The starting pitching depth to me is - Gray, Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland. And that's pretty strong depth if you ask me. 

I looked through Maeda’s game loads and his experience innings 4-6 or relief appearance beyond 2 or more innings is really limited. He had one relief appearance of 2 innings in 2017. In 2018 his longest relief appearance was 1.1 innings. One of those appearance was in the mid innings and he gave up a run in 1.1 innings. In 2019 he had two 4 inning relief appearances immediately after he moved to the pen. One followed an opener. In the other he gave up 3 runs in 4 innings. The rest of his relief appearances were 4 outs or less often in higher leverage situations. Is it the playoffs where he gained this experience? I don’t see it. He pitched 2+ innings twice as a reliever. The were both game 3 of a World Series. In 2017 he took over for Darvish in the second inning and got 8 outs. The other was the memorable game 3 against Boston when he pitched innings 15 and 16.

I guess compared to Ober he has more experience but I don’t see the repeated narrative that he was a successful mid inning reliever that can pitch multiple innings. He does have experience as a high leverage reliever most often pitching one inning when he wasn’t starting. The Twins could use a right handed high leverage reliever. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I think they will go with a six man rotation again this year. Even though it didn't last long last year it seemed to work, especially  for Bundy. He did well until he had to go every 5th day. It would save some wear on all those fragile arms, even if it only lasted a couple months.

[Brad.dahlen]

On 2/11/2023 at 2:30 PM, jorgenswest said:

I looked through Maeda’s game loads and his experience innings 4-6 or relief appearance beyond 2 or more innings is really limited. He had one relief appearance of 2 innings in 2017. In 2018 his longest relief appearance was 1.1 innings. One of those appearance was in the mid innings and he gave up a run in 1.1 innings. In 2019 he had two 4 inning relief appearances immediately after he moved to the pen. One followed an opener. In the other he gave up 3 runs in 4 innings. The rest of his relief appearances were 4 outs or less often in higher leverage situations. Is it the playoffs where he gained this experience? I don’t see it. He pitched 2+ innings twice as a reliever. The were both game 3 of a World Series. In 2017 he took over for Darvish in the second inning and got 8 outs. The other was the memorable game 3 against Boston when he pitched innings 15 and 16.

I guess compared to Ober he has more experience but I don’t see the repeated narrative that he was a successful mid inning reliever that can pitch multiple innings. He does have experience as a high leverage reliever most often pitching one inning when he wasn’t starting. The Twins could use a right handed high leverage reliever. 

Very interesting! Great research. He could be very valuable as a high leverage reliever. Even more so than an inning-eater middle reliever. 

[Richard]

Can we make a decision on the fifth spot before we see them pitch? Are there any reports on how they've come into camp? I know that Maeda said he has no restrictions this camp and I haven't seen much on Ober.  I would try to get Maeda as many innings this spring as he feels comfortable with.  We'll see what the Twins plans are based on how much he pitches.  If he pitches a ton I'd image he'd have the fifth spot, but if he throws some here and there then he'll start in the pen.

[TaterTot]

On 2/3/2023 at 6:16 AM, lecroy24fan said:

I think they'll start the season with a six man rotatiion.

Start out the year with a six man rotation, and then keep the one who pitches better in the starting mix, and move the other to the bullpen.

[stringer bell]

Reports have been very good on Maeda early in camp. Ober finished 2022 healthy, so I don't see why he'd be slowed early in the spring.