The Battle for the 5th Rotation Spot (Maeda V.S Ober)

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

The first four SP’s for the Twins are thankfully an obvious lock this season in Gray, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan. The question remains, who gets the 5th spot? Not only does this affect the rotation but also the bullpen as whoever doesn’t get the last spot will probably be sent to the bullpen. In Ober’s case he could be sent back to AAA. 
 

Maeda SP: Maeda’s 2020 season was amazing although it was in a shortened season. 2021 was a step back but he was dealing with injury before Tommy John hit. He’s shown #1 starter material. The issue is how effective he is two years older and recovering from Tommy John. 
 

Ober SP: Ober didn’t have too bad of a season last year but it wasn’t anything special. Ober however is still developing and I think would benefit from another season as a starter and on the major league roster. Leaving Ober in the rotation also gives him more experience which the Twins are going to need with 3 starters Gray, Mahle, and Maeda becoming free agents after the season.
 

Maeda in the pen: While Maeda has been a starter majority of his career he has pitched a little out of the pen. Specifically when the Dodgers were in the playoffs they would move him to the pen. In a small sample size he was actually very effective. Maeda coming off Tommy John would also benefit from the lessened workload in the pen. The issue is Maeda contract allows him to make a lot more money if he makes a certain amount of starts so moving him to the bullpen wouldn’t make him very happy. I think if the Twins plan to have him in the pen for the whole year. They should try restructure the contract for his incentives to be reliever wise. This way even though we will end up paying more. Maeda will be happy with the move. 
 

Ober in the pen/AAA: Ober out of the rotation means either moving to the pen or going down to AAA. I think the best option here is AAA. Long-term Ober seems to have more value as a starter instead of reliever. Moving Ober to AAA probably gives him more room to grow especially in a less stressful environment although for a guy who’s been on the major league roster for the last two years a move down to AAA is hard. Obviously it also depends on how good the other Twins relievers are looking. And how healthy the pen is overall. 
 

Whether it’s Maeda or Ober I would be fine with either taking the last spot of the rotation but it will be interesting on what the Twins decide to do. This is a great problem to have though compared to last season being forced to watch Archer and Bundy being extremely inconsistent and while only pitching 4-5 innings.
 

What route do you think/you see the Twins taking? Ober or Maeda? 

[Brad.dahlen]

What WOULD I do? I'd have Ober be the 5th starter and have Maeda pitch the middle innings. He has experience doing it (and excelled). Ober is a young arm that I really like.

 

But the writing is on the wall that Maeda will be the 5 and Ober will likely start the year in St. Paul. Ober has options left and they already said Maeda will not be moving to the 'pen. 

 

Either way, we've learned every year that even if Ober starts in St. Paul he is pretty likely to make a start or 2 in April. 

 

The starting pitching depth to me is - Gray, Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland. And that's pretty strong depth if you ask me. 

[lecroy24fan]

I think they'll start the season with a six man rotatiion.

[Doctor Gast]

The problem we've had is misprofiling Maeda & Ober. Maeda was profiled as top of the rotation regularly pitching 6+ innings & Ober #5 SP, pitching 5+ innings. Being overstretched is the result of their injuries, that set them both back.

I'd piggy-back both of them rotating as spot SP until either or both are ready to regularly pitch 5. 

[gman]

I suspect during spring training both will start and work their way up to 5 innings by the start of the season. Someone may get injured this spring (hope not) in which case they may both be in the rotation come opening day.

[danielp19653]

My guess is its Maeda's to lose, he has more experience and has shown more ability. But if he falters early or doesn't get stretched out in spring to that 5+ inning threshold I could see the Twins having him start in long relief and then pull him into the rotation once someone goes down. I think Ober has upside but I think the only way he gets into the rotation is an injury in the spring or a setback for Maeda that cuts his innings or delays his season start.

[IndianaTwin]

I don't think it makes sense to put Maeda in long relief. Intuitively it seems logical to do that for shorter outings, but injury rehab requires predictable patterns of work and recovery, which isn't possible in the bullpen. I think they'll want to keep him in the rotation, so they can project his throwing days. 

[MN_ExPat]

7 hours ago, Brad.dahlen said:

The starting pitching depth to me is - Gray, Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland. And that's pretty strong depth if you ask me. 

Me: You said Gray twice

You: I really like Gray.  The pitcher is pretty cool too though

[strumdatjag]

21 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Me: You said Gray twice

You: I really like Gray.  The pitcher is pretty cool too though

In the slightly altered lyrics of The Suburbs:

Here Joe Ryan is Gray.   If I were an excitable guy, this would upset me to no end.  Instead, I beat on cans (in Houston).  

[chpettit19]

What do I think they'll do assuming all starters make it through spring healthy? Maeda in the rotation, Ober in AAA.

What would I do assuming all starters make it through spring healthy? Maeda in the rotation, Ober the long man in the pen and as spot starter until a rotation spot opens up.

100 innings would be my goal for Ober. Don't think it makes sense to give him a rotation spot to start the year and do the 4 inning Archer thing, or stop starting him at some point. He's only thrown 100 innings in a season twice in his life (assuming he didn't do it in high school). Once was 2014 when he was 18. To me it doesn't make sense to throw him in the rotation when you know he's not going to give you more than 100 innings. Try to get him back to 100 this year and then give him a rotation spot next year (assuming he hit his 100 inning mark, and not too many guys jumped him and showed they're better options).

[farmerguychris]

Pretty sure the plan without injuries is to put Ober in St. Paul.  They know its only a matter of time until we need him due to injuries.  He has options so we should use them.  They say the pen is not a priority, so I don't expect either of them to go there.

[Cris E]

Maeda is getting the first crack at being a Bundy/Archer starter and Ober is going to pitch in St Paul to develop and be ready when someone gets hurt. If that happens in March then he'll break camp with the big league team and if it doesn't he'll get a regular shift in St Paul. 

In 2024 I think Grey and Maeda are gone and Lopez, Mahle and Paddack are headlining with Ryan, and the kids who grow this year will get the #5-6 spots.  I think Ober and Varland are leading that race today, but others are going to move up by next winter. This is going to be a fun year.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think it'll be Maeda in the rotation, with Mahle and Lopez and Ryan and Gray. I think Ober will either be starting every 5th day in St. Paul, or will convert fully to a reliever. I think longer term Ober's future lies more in a longer relief type role, as I can see Varland and Woods Richardson passing him on the starting pitcher hierarchy pretty early on this year.

If I am wrong about Ober, that's a good thing still. But I do think he can become a weapon (like Jax has) in a different role. A role that, if used well, can keep his shoulder healthier for longer.

[August J Gloop]

My guess is Maeda won't let himself be an Archer style starter. He'll be up to 6 innings by the end of April. No way he wants to retire, so he needs to be a starter to get that last contract. 

Ober will also be in the rotation as it's unlikely that All 5 will be healthy at the end of ST. Unless of course he's the one who gets hurt. 

[Trov]

First, I want to point Ober, when healthy put up some good numbers, but it was only 11 starts last year.  In those 11 starts he averaged just over 5 innings, not great, but there was only 2 starts he did not go at least 5, a 3.2 where he left due to injury, and a 3.0.  So even when he was not giving long starts he was pitching 5 plus.  Over those 11 starts, he had 3.21 ERA with a 2.92 FIP.  His K-rate was down from a year before, but he allowed much less hits too. 

If he could carry that through a full season, no way should he not be in the rotation.  However, Maeda is the vet, has shown he can go deep into games, which has huge value if you can count on it.  I actually would not be surprised if we break camp with a 6 man rotation like last year. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Maeda will 100% direct his own path.  He has earned it.  It would not surprise me in the slightest if he was the Opening Day starting pitcher.  He or Gray would be the veteran in that spot.

[Brandon]

Maeda in rotation 

Ober is 6th man AAA to start the season

Winder is this season’s Jax in the pen.  
 

Ober will still get 20-25 starts in major leagues this season if he stays healthy.

[DocBauer]

At this point, we have hunches and optimism. I think there's very possibly a direct correlation to Gray's and Mahle's injuries being related to the lockout and brief ST. 2023 being normal, both could be ready to go and be their normal selves. I'm still holding on to Mahle showing nothing negative on multiple examinations and a pair of MRI's. And while there hasn't been anything specific about Maeda, he's had a lot of time to recover, rehab, and build himself back up. The one report I did here was that the Twins were surprised and impressed by his control at the end of 2022, and that's usually the hardest part about TJ recovery.

In regard to Ober, his previous issues were related to mechanical issues that made him feel "beat up" after starts and lead to a lot of injuries while in milb. In addition to working with hus stuff, making tweaks and improvements in his rookie 2021 season, was changes in his delivery that kept him fresh and healthy. Now, was his bad abdominal injury last year a return of being "injury prone"? Was it also due to the lockout and short ST? Was it just an injury...they happen...and not a return of his previous injury curse? We just don't know right now. But he's looked pretty damn good in his first 2 ML seasons. And I totally agree that the goal for 2023 should be staying healthy and getting in 100 IP plus. 

Ober is simply too good to be sent to St Paul to begin the season. He belongs in the rotation. But I don't see a 6 man rotation. I'm about 70-30% against the Twins wanting to do that and shorten the pen by an arm.

IF everyone is healthy from day 1 to begin the season, I see Ober begining the year at AAA for depth, and for his own benefit to stay stretched out and get his innings pitched in. I like that better than having him in the pen. I think any middle/long man might be better served by Henriquez, or Sands, and possibly Winder, though I don't think the Twins have decided Winder is not a rotation piece yet. 

Long way of saying we still have some unknowns. And usually, these things have a way of working themselves out. Invariably, someone isn't ready to break camp and go north. Invariably, some tweaks something and you need to bring someone up at some point. And even in the best case scenarios, a team needs 8-9 SP at some point in the season. So while a 6 man rotation probably won't happen, there is no reason not to believe Ober won't be getting 20-25 GS and 100+ plus IP between some AAA time and ML time. But simple logic says he's the odd man out to begin the year if everyone is 100% and ready to go.

But again, it's a long season and these things tend to work themselves out.

 

[Brady]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:34 PM, Cris E said:

Maeda is getting the first crack at being a Bundy/Archer starter and Ober is going to pitch in St Paul to develop and be ready when someone gets hurt. If that happens in March then he'll break camp with the big league team and if it doesn't he'll get a regular shift in St Paul. 

In 2024 I think Grey and Maeda are gone and Lopez, Mahle and Paddack are headlining with Ryan, and the kids who grow this year will get the #5-6 spots.  I think Ober and Varland are leading that race today, but others are going to move up by next winter. This is going to be a fun year.

I think this is how it will play out, as well. Since you have Maeda (who at one point not too long ago was an above-average arm, albeit for a relatively short time) you might as well see how he looks in the rotation to start the year. He doesn't strike me as a particularly strong bullpen candidate either.

I'd like to see Ober continue to develop as a starter and not end up in the weird purgatory of a SP prospect sliding to the pen simply to get him big league innings. There's absolutely a time and place for that approach, but I don't think it is the best fit for the Twins and Ober right now. I'd say let him get innings in St. Paul. Unfortunately, history and probability would say that he will make the trip over to Minneapolis soon enough due to injury.

[Nashvilletwin]

Just can’t see Maeda being allowed to be stretched out for some period of time.  Probably a 60-80 pitch limit through early May - let’s say 6-7 starts or so.  Why not just put Ober on the back end of Maeda for those starts? Maeda goes 3-5 then Ober comes in for another 80 pitches or so.  Keeps the pen fresh by ideally essentially getting a day off. Both guys get their innings and build their strength back.

[JD-TWINS]

Maeda is 35…..he isn’t a relief pitcher but he does have some experience in 2 different seasons pitching out of the Pen when the Dodgers shortened the starting staff at end of the year. He’s experienced in numerous situations and has the guts to work though jambs later in games!!!

Ober is injury prone and possibly going to max out at 100-120 innings…….why waste those innings in St. Paul & risk injury there v. taking advantage of his health from the jump in Mpls.?

If Ober starts out in the rotation & remains healthy he’s “strong enough” to get through 15 - 20 starts & then the more rested Maeda or Winder move into his slot in mid-August.

Maeda throws 1 1/3 - 3 inning outings twice per week from the Pen through June. He helps our depth there in first half big time! If he needs to be prepared to start based on others health issues or lack of performance, he can start stretching out in early July as a starter. If we’re healthy in the rotation and Maeda is effective, leave him in the Pen.

Ober needs to prove he can produce as a starter - Maeda has little to prove. Maeda just needs to protect his arm and find his niche on the staff.

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:23 PM, August J Gloop said:

My guess is Maeda won't let himself be an Archer style starter. He'll be up to 6 innings by the end of April. No way he wants to retire, so he needs to be a starter to get that last contract. 

Ober will also be in the rotation as it's unlikely that All 5 will be healthy at the end of ST. Unless of course he's the one who gets hurt. 

I agree. I mean Maeda is a veteran but he’s still only 34. His contract also allows him to make a lot more money depending on how many innings he pitches. 

[Squirrel]

Maeda isn't going to the pen. The Twins have already stated that. So ... he's the 5th starter. Not sure if that means Ober starts in AAA, is the 6th starter, or works from the pen? Just don't know. Also, Maeda will be pitching for Japan in the WBC ... we'll get a good opportunity to see how he does in meaningful game action. It's been reported that he's ready to go full on. 

[stringer bell]

I expect Ober will get plenty of starts and I hope he stays healthy so that he can be a foundation for the ‘24 rotation. He’s got 5 guys ahead of him, but it is a virtual impossibility that all five will stay healthy and productive through the season. 

[August J Gloop]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Maeda isn't going to the pen. The Twins have already stated that. So ... he's the 5th starter. Not sure if that means Ober starts in AAA, is the 6th starter, or works from the pen? Just don't know. Also, Maeda will be pitching for Japan in the WBC ... we'll get a good opportunity to see how he does in meaningful game action. It's been reported that he's ready to go full on. 

Kenta is not on the WBC roster. He's focused on being ready for MLB. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

Kenta is not on the WBC roster. He's focused on being ready for MLB. 

I just saw a post yesterday on IG where he said he was playing in the WBC for Japan

This is a screen shot of his post. Unless the translation was bad or I’ve read this wrong … sounds like he’s going to the WBC? But you are correct in that I don’t see him listed on Japan’s roster.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

First of all, let me say as a long time Twins fan, this is a wonderful problem to have.  In my time watching and listening to the team since the early 1970’s, I don’t remember a time when we had to (got to) pick between a solid MLB veteran pitcher seemingly recovered from injury and a young up and coming starting pitcher (that at this time last year was maybe our #2 pitcher) for the NUMBER FIVE spot in the rotation.  Usually that would be the #3 spot, as we have seldom had more than two starting pitchers that we could regard as particularly solid.  Even in 1987 and 1991 the fifth starter spot was pretty much a black hole.  It drives me crazy when I hear people complain about these “below average” starters in their rotation, because over the last 40 years, wow can I show you below average starters!  The late 1990’s was not for the faint of heart.

I find myself in agreement with many of the previous posters in that I think Maeda gets the spot and Ober goes to St. Paul.  Between his contract, his veteran status, and the need for predictable normalcy in his routine, Maeda is the obvious choice.  I don’t think that Ober becomes a bullpen piece either because I believe the team views him as a long term starter and keeping him stretched out will be important for when (not if) someone is injured and they need another starter.  If we get to August/September, everyone is healthy, the team is in a pennant race, and there is a specific need, MAYBE Maeda moves to the pen because he has shown the ability to do that.  I don’t think it is likely, however, unless several stars line up for the Twins.

 

[August J Gloop]

21 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I just saw a post yesterday on IG where he said he was playing in the WBC for Japan

This is a screen shot of his post. Unless the translation was bad or I’ve read this wrong … sounds like he’s going to the WBC? But you are correct in that I don’t see him listed on Japan’s roster.

 

Well that would be cooler. More Twins to root for!

[aTwinsFanInMaryland]

I think they'll give Kenta the initial nod in the 5th spot. If he truly has no limitations in camp, they're going to give him every opportunity to get a starting role. I think Ober to Triple-A, a bullpen role with the big league club may not benefit him. Give long relief role to Winder.

[solomon1930]

9 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Kenta is not on the WBC roster. He's focused on being ready for MLB. 

I did a quick search and the 2 sites I looked at did not list him.