Rumor: Kepler Staying?

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe, but teams are much less eager to take on salary in-season. The Twins might have to eat most of it. Which is fine by me if it's fine by them.

And honestly, he's probably still here because no other team found the remaining 9.5M salary reasonable. Particularly since you can still get David Peralta, Robbie Grossman, Tyler Naquin, Ben Gamel or Kole Calhoun for a fraction of that.

Yep, I am sure several teams asked why they should give the Twins all that much in trade with all those options you listed and announced they were holding on to him.  I am hoping for the opportunity to buy a decent prospect by absorbing most of his salary.  However, I would be just fine with a scenario they move him for a modest return if the motivation is Larnach and or Wallner are performing at a high level than Kepler.

[Cris E]

The truth is right now there are not that many experienced OF on the 40 man that have shown they can be counted on for 450 AB of average performance. Buxton needs the poor-hitting Taylor to cover his time off, Kepler hasn't got a great record with the bat of late, and Gordon hits well when his babip is over .350 and poorly when it's low, but hasn't established a level of performance yet. And as good as some of the kids look, Larnach and Kirilloff haven't proved anything, Wallner looked good for a tiny bit and at that point you begin converting Martin or someone to LF. They got Gallo to fill a huge hole and it's not solid enough to give away Kepler until after spring training establishes who can replace him.

[stringer bell]

Compared to other teams that really believe they will compete, the Twins have a far greater level of unprovenness (if that's a word). Gordon had a good stretch last year, but as noted above, he benefited from a high BABiP and shows concerning platoon splits. Kirilloff and Larnach have both had their trials shortened and damaged by lingering injuries. Wallner certainly could benefit from more AAA time. All four of those guys could succeed and make Kepler redundant, but chances are not all of them will succeed. I think it is prudent to have a vet LH hitting corner, two might be overkill. 

Injuries will probably provide all of these guys with opportunities to prove themselves. Currently, it doesn't look like we'll see the likes of a Contreras, Cave, Celestino outfield, and that is a good thing. 

[RLTW894]

Prior to his first stint on IL from the toe injury, Max was hitting decent and his OBA was top 3 on the Twins. He did not have power numbers at all, but he was clearly working on beating the shift and was finding success before his season ending final injury time.

What really hurt Max and the team was Rocco's insistence batting him in one of the power spots. By second half of season, it made zero sense but Rocco kept trying to force it.

Before his toe injury, Kepler should have been lead off with Arraez batting second. This would have been like having two leadoff hitters for Correa and Buxton and gotten the Twins 6-9 extra wins. Batting order was definitely a key player in all those stranded runners. Rocco did not adjust according to what he had and misplacing Kepler in the lineup was one of the biggest mistakes of the 2022 season.

I believe Kepler needs to adjust his batting stance since pitchers figured out to pitch him low with two strikes. He needs his swing range a couple inches lower and a wider stance would naturally do that.

[Mike Sixel]

On 2/13/2023 at 1:24 PM, RLTW894 said:

Prior to his first stint on IL from the toe injury, Max was hitting decent and his OBA was top 3 on the Twins. He did not have power numbers at all, but he was clearly working on beating the shift and was finding success before his season ending final injury time.

What really hurt Max and the team was Rocco's insistence batting him in one of the power spots. By second half of season, it made zero sense but Rocco kept trying to force it.

Before his toe injury, Kepler should have been lead off with Arraez batting second. This would have been like having two leadoff hitters for Correa and Buxton and gotten the Twins 6-9 extra wins. Batting order was definitely a key player in all those stranded runners. Rocco did not adjust according to what he had and misplacing Kepler in the lineup was one of the biggest mistakes of the 2022 season.

I believe Kepler needs to adjust his batting stance since pitchers figured out to pitch him low with two strikes. He needs his swing range a couple inches lower and a wider stance would naturally do that.

You think batting order somehow made Max a worse hitter? Nonsense. 

[ashbury]

On 2/13/2023 at 1:24 PM, RLTW894 said:

Before his toe injury, Kepler should have been lead off with Arraez batting second. This would have been like having two leadoff hitters for Correa and Buxton and gotten the Twins 6-9 extra wins.

 

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think batting order somehow made Max a worse hitter? Nonsense. 

Not to mention that no study has ever turned up that kind of effect on run-scoring just from batting order.  (Maybe if compared to batting the pitcher leadoff, your light-hitting catcher second, and your rangey shortstop at cleanup.)

On top of that, to get 6-9 wins from the offensive side of the equation means something like 60-90 additional runs are needed over the course of the season, because no team is capable of inserting exactly the right number of "clutch" runs at just the right moment, on any kind of consistent basis. You're talking about elevating the Twins to one of the top offenses in all of MLB, instead of right around league-average where they were, just from slotting Kepler in the precisely optimal spot in the lineup? That's simply not a reasonable expectation.

6-9 runs? Sure. Maybe.  That might have gotten them to 79-83 for their season's W-L.