Rumor: Kepler Staying?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

https://clutchpoints.com/mlb-rumors-why-the-twins-likely-wont-trade-max-kepler

Look out below!  The sky may be falling!

View full rumor

[TwinsDr2021]

So the Twins FO like some of the fans thought that Kepler had more value then he actually had, so they are deciding it is better to keep him (at least for the time being) then to trade him. I think realistic fans assumed this would probably be the case. Take a chance with the new rules on a guy that has been pretty good over a low level prospect.

[Unwinder]

It seems like the trade deadline is a better time to find takers for a glove-first outfielder anyway.

[Trov]

The way I see it is no deal was out there that the Twins found to be of good value for them.  Also, without knowing health of all players we could be selling on a guy that may be needed.  He could increase his value by having a good year under new anti-shift rules(I have long argued he will not increase offense that much if at all).  I am fine keeping him, just glad we did not sell low on him just to get something. 

[Doctor Gast]

Many teams want him, but try to get him on the cheap. Their need will be greater when he starts to hit better. But probably then they'll have to pay a premium.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins were never giving Kepler away. What is the worth of a 2 WAR player? If an offer comes that is worthy, the Twins will listen. What is not at all clear to me is the value of guys like Wallner, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, Celestino, and Kirilloff from either the perspective of other organizations or from Falvey's view.

[Dman]

Twins have room to keep him so not a huge deal other than the money at this point.  I agree with others that there is no reason to trade him for a Michael Taylor return if that is all that is out there.  He has more value than than that to his current team.  If his offense returns that value could increase dramatically as well.  Also agree that if he performs at an average level he should bring more back at the deadline than right now.

If there is room why not just wait unless blown away by an offer?

[wsnydes]

Not super surprised by this.  He probably has more value at the trade deadline.  I imagine that if a reasonable offer came around between now and Spring Training, or at any point in the offseason, it was/would be seriously considered.  

[Reptevia]

He has less value than Taylor at this point. Better to see what he’s worth at deadline. 

[Unwinder]

The FO has famously been getting overpays this offseason, I feel like at this particular moment in time I'm happy to trust the process.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Oh, the humanity! Looks like the classic thing a team would say when they would like to trade a guy and can't get enough value on the market. "We like him and adds value to us". My bet is that they tried to trade him, couldn't get much for him, and have decided to wait and see if the market comes to them through an injury or another team striking out in free agency. We didn't sign Gallo to have him play LF or 1B and then sign Taylor to be the backup CF all so we could put Kirilloff, Gordon and/or Larnach on the bench. We signed them because we thought we cold trade Kepler for MLB value. It looks like we can't get that value so far, so plan B is to use him as part of an OF/1B group and as a backstop in case Kirilloff can't go.   

The real issue if he stays is whether we play him at the expense of a Larncah, Gordon and/or Kirilloff. We know what Max is - very meh. Are those three better? Gordon was last year by a pretty wide margin, but that's one year. Who knows on Larnach or Kirilloff? One thing we do know is that we won't know on any of those 3 if they don't get to play. And if Kepler stays and Rocco plays him everyday like he has in the past at least 1 or 2 of them won't get to play much. 

That's my response to those of you who say "we have room, why not keep him",  This isn't a cost free decision, there is a real opportunity cost to keeping Kepler on the roster and using thim the way Rocco has in the past. Doing that moves back the development of Larnach and Gordon for yet another year. To me, that's potentially problematic because this team wasn't good enough last year to contend and one of the  big problems was the offense, We have to get better and getting someone better than Kepler to play every day in the outfield is an obvious way for us to get better offensive production. We lose that opportunity if we keep him. I'm not saying just give him away, but we should seriously be trying to trade him. My prediction is we do we eventually do so.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

It seems like the trade deadline is a better time to find takers for a glove-first outfielder anyway.

By the trade deadline we may be psyched about Max hitting .260 & his 55 RBI & 12 HR……..& ready to trade Gallo to anyone that will take him!!! Joey is definitely a glove first guy.

Fingers crossed!

[nicksaviking]

I always thought it was weird that they thought they could get much value for him. Keep him, fine.

But does he have to be promised a starting job? Larnach, Wallner and Gordon should all have a shot at getting the RF job, seniority should have zero impact on the decision either. Kepler just is not productive any longer.

[rv78]

Totally agree with LA Vikes Fan. Knowing Rocco, Kepler will play a lot, even if he isn't hitting. Sano was terrible last year and even when he came back for that short period of time Rocco put him in the lineup with no consideration for how inept he was. I may be wrong but I think the FO has specific instructions to the Manager that the guys that earn the most money play the most. That would mean the starting outfield will be Gallo, Buxton and Kepler and the only way a Larnach, Gordon Taylor or Wallner will play is if one of the 3 starters gets hurt or Rocco platoons for a lefty/righty matchup verses the pitcher. 3rd case scenario is if Larnach, Gordon or someone else is just tearing the cover off the ball and they force Rocco into no other choice but to sit Gallo or Kepler.

[Brady]

43 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I always thought it was weird that they thought they could get much value for him. Keep him, fine.

But does he have to be promised a starting job? Larnach, Wallner and Gordon should all have a shot at getting the RF job, seniority should have zero impact on the decision either. Kepler just is not productive any longer.

100%. Absolutely no reason why the FO/Rocco should grant Kepler a starting spot simply because he's the incumbent. LHH outfielders is probably the area of greatest system depth at the moment and it would be a waste of that prospective talent to park them on the bench for old times' sake. I'm skeptical that the shift ban will reverse Kepler's OPS skid since 2019, so let's at least have a true competition down in Ft. Myers.

[solomon1930]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I always thought it was weird that they thought they could get much value for him. Keep him, fine.

But does he have to be promised a starting job? Larnach, Wallner and Gordon should all have a shot at getting the RF job, seniority should have zero impact on the decision either. Kepler just is not productive any longer.

He should not.  If he is not producing or is hurt he needs to be replaced or go on IL.

Same for Buxton we now have a true replacement CF in Taylor and hiding Buxton at DH is not the answer.

[CRF]

Something has to happen with Kep, or one of the other OF's. We have too many left handed hitting OF's. It kind of looks like our FO believes that Kep's trade value is worth more than potential interested teams do, and are asking too much for him. Still time to make moves. Waiting until the deadline is too late. They need to do something before the season starts. 

[Mike Sixel]

I never thought they were trading him. Last year fell apart due to an insane number of OF injuries (and other stuff)......They don't want to use OFers 6-8 all at the same time again. Also, if Gallo doesn't rebound.....also, if Larnach is hurt.....or if Kiriloff is.....or whatever. That said, if Larnach and Kiriloff are healthy and productive, I hope they bench Kepler unless he suddenly starts hitting.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo  so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot.

Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo  so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot.

Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think Mike is right.  Since no other team wanted to make it worth their while the Twins need to make sure Kirilloff is truly healthy.  That Larnach is the same Larnach after coming back from injury.  If Gallo doesn't rebound they have another player to use in right.

Still lot's of things can happen between now and the start of the season.  Guys go down in Spring training all the time.  Kepler might look really good this spring and some other team might feel they really, really need a player like that.  The Twins traded Rogers just before the season the same could happen with Kepler if the Twins decide Kirilloff, and Larnach look ready to go.

In your worst case scenario if Kepler doesn't turn things around, then around June, Larnach or someone else will replace him anyway.  At that point once his projection is a known quantity they can try and trade him for a bucket of balls or bench him.

I think there is still time for the Twins to get a deal done before the season starts but a team would need to be willing to pay the price the Twins feel he should be valued at.  If not I think they are doing the prudent thing especially given what happened last year.  Roll with the extra depth and see how things shake out.  It is likely 3 months of development time lost max.

[Mike Sixel]

No room for larnach? He's the DH isn't he?

[Major League Ready]

I'm just glad they did not move him just to dump his salary.  Apparently, they are not willing to let him go until they get a good return.  I would rather they hold out and see what makes sense at some future point.  

[m-i-e-n-t-k-i-e-w-i-c-z]

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I'm just glad they did not move him just to dump his salary.  Apparently, they are not willing to let him go until they get a good return.  I would rather they hold out and see what makes sense at some future point.  

Agreed. He's not a complete waste of space (like Sano ended up being). I'm also a little attached to the Twins' image as a team with a solid outfield. 

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo  so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot.

Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

I struggle with what I think they'll do with Kepler. It's hard to compare this season to the previous seasons, because the previous seasons had his possible replacements as Cave, Contreras, Celestino, and Garlick types. Larnach and Kirilloff were both getting run even with Kepler around before they got hurt. It's hard to point to those situations and say Rocco/Falvine won't have Kepler as the 4th or 5th OFer early now that his possible replacements are Gordon, Larnach, Taylor, and Kirilloff.

I see 4 spots that Kepler, Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, and Kiriloff are battling for in ST. LF, RF, 1B, DH (vs righties). Do I think Kepler likely has a leg up on RF on 2/3/23? Probably. But I don't think it's a huge advantage by any means. I mean it sure sounds like they were actively trying to trade him, but didn't get any good offers. If that's the case I'd think they probably don't see him as the ideal option in RF for a winning team in 2023. I think it's probably a pretty tight race between those 5 for those 4 spots going into ST. Injuries are a real concern with 3 of them (Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and I think it actually makes sense to carry Kepler into the season. But I'm not sold on Wallner, and would prefer he starts the year in St Paul. Beyond him I'm not sure who people would be clamoring to have on the roster to start the year. I think the smart thing to do is have real depth in AAA for the first time I can remember. They're trying to win, and trading Kepler only to watch Kirilloff's wrist act up (probably ends his career and I hate even thinking about it), Larnach to go down again, and Gallo not bounce back would be brutal.

I think we put too much emphasis on "Opening Day Roster" like that means those 26 guys are going to play 90% of the time or something. They need 50 guys worth of depth. I don't know why we think Gordon, Larnach, Wallner, et al will be held back dramatically by having a 2 WAR player on the roster opening day. They're all going to get time and play plenty.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

This news is a signal to other teams that the Twins hold the upper hand here not them.  We can easily keep Kepler and trade him when we are ready or we receive good value.

My only hope is that if he starts out poorly, the team will not continue to run him out there in an attempt to increase his trade value.  I would much rather see them bench him as a sign that he is not up to par since we have quality replacements (assuming good health of course).

That is one thing I like about the Wild.  If somebody has a bad game or two they sit as a lesson that their performance is not good enough.  They usually come back with an improved attitude and determination to show management that they were wrong.  I wish the Twins would apply that incentive more often.

[sun]

The Twins knew they couldn't get more than a prospect for Max unless he was part of a package deal. This puts Max on notice that they intend to buy out his contract next year. Even if they trade him by the deadline he will still be bought out by the next team and will only be a rental.

His black & tan glove is one of the handsomest gloves in all of the MLB. I hope that he can get his bat going and can obtain his payday somewhere. I'd hate to see him need to go to another country to play. 

He may end up being platooned this year depending on spring training, the roster & his production. Those are all powerful incentives for him to swing for the fences.

[ChineseGandalf]

23 hours ago, Unwinder said:

It seems like the trade deadline is a better time to find takers for a glove-first outfielder anyway.

The trade deadline usually provides the maximum return for sellers, although the problem is that Kepler's value may only tank further by that point if they play him as a platoon player. However, it seems fairly likely that he may continue to be the every day right fielder, which should make him somewhat valuable I hope. 

[Brandon]

21 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I always thought it was weird that they thought they could get much value for him. Keep him, fine.

But does he have to be promised a starting job? Larnach, Wallner and Gordon should all have a shot at getting the RF job, seniority should have zero impact on the decision either. Kepler just is not productive any longer.

Seniority should only give the incumbent the tie breaker. but I agree with Nick'saViking the job should be earned and not a given.

 

[Matthew Lenz]

Imagine a world where Kepler’s offense isn’t saved by the shift being banned, Buxton misses significant time (again), and 2022 Joey Gallo wasn’t a fluke. Woof.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins know what Kepler can do as a baseline. Players like Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner all seem like good options but the team has, at minimum, some doubt. The depth is a good. The Twins absolutely do not need to trade Kepler for some guy they release within a year. 

The flexibility of options will allow Baldelli an opportunity to use the player who is actually performing. There is a difference between the 2022 team and the current Twins roster; depth. Besides, Kepler is still a good player.