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Rumor: Falvey says "Bullpen not a priority"


Brock Beauchamp

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1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which elite RP do you think they should sign right now?

None, actually. I like our pen as structured a lot.  My points were that shutdown pens are critical in the modern game and, for several reasons, we should not necessarily expect less pressure on IPs from our relief corp.  Several posters made the point that our IPs from our starters this year were going to increase (substantially).  I just don’t think that’s the case. But I like our pen - could be a real strength. 

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12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You realize this was not the strategy before last year, right? When they had Archer and Bundy (both bad and hurt) and Ryan who was a rookie (wanted to limit his innings so he didn't tire like Lopez)? Not to mention some injuries? I guess if you assume they will get rocked when they start every other starter, well, why even try to get better if you just assume they will fail anyway?

2019 - 5.5, league average 5.2, Twins 9th

2020 - 4.7, league average 4.8, Twins 17th

2021 - 4.9, league average 5.0, Twins 20th

2022 - 4.8, league average 5.2, Twins 27th

Maybe it was not the strategy and 19 is the real strategy (which beside Berrios the other 4 main starters were below 5.66) or maybe it is all just a matter of circumstances, Either way until they reverse the trend I think it is fair statement to make.

 

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41 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Because he pitched three total innings last year, and never has been great, so IMO he has to prove he is back and better than he ever has been, or he is the last guy out of the pen or maybe 1 before Pagan. Doesn't seem like the best way for him to get the innings he needs. Maybe in spring training he is awesome and flat out better than a handful of guys and forces his way onto the team (Which was would great!) but as of 2/2 I don't think he should be considered a lock to start the season in MPLS.

Which I don't have a real problem with, except you switched Winder in for him who hasn't ever been as good as Alcala. Seemingly simply because Winder is 26. Alcala has 100% "earned" a spot over Winder on the opening day roster if you're trying to win baseball games.

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2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't disagree with your take of a 6 man rotation, because Ober and for sure Maeda will be limited at least for a bit. But do you really trade Arraez for a guy that is only going to pitch once every 6 days? It is more evidence to me this FO is making things up as they go with no real plan.

Going into 24 they have Lopez as a for sure starter (assuming he doesn't get hurt) and to me this is a prove it year for Ryan (based on how he did against teams not named Tigers or Royals), it is also a prove it year for Ober, is what he has done for real and can he stay healthy. So at minimum they need a prospect to step it up this year (Winder, SWR, Varland, whomever, but that pitcher needs 15-20 starts this year just so next year can be a prove it year. Or the Twins are going to go into every year searching for a couple of starters. (That is getting old)

You forgot about Paddack.  Lopez / Ryan / Ober and Paddack have all proven they belong at this level.  Proving they are 1s,2s, or 3s is a different story but they are all solid MLB pitchers.  Having 4 cost-controlled SPs as well as a BP full of const controlled RPs puts them in a very good position to go out and sign a very good free agent SP.  That would leave them with Winder / SWR and Varland and perhaps Balazovic or Canterino as depth.  They are not going to be back in the position of signing someone like Happ, Archer or Bundy. 

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1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Which I don't have a real problem with, except you switched Winder in for him who hasn't ever been as good as Alcala. Seemingly simply because Winder is 26. Alcala has 100% "earned" a spot over Winder on the opening day roster if you're trying to win baseball games.

I put Winder in the pen because he showed at times last year he could take on a good team for multiple innings (mostly pre-injury) and he could be used more as a piggy back guy or somebody to come in when something bad happens to a starter and pitch 3,4,5 innings or spot start if needed. I think of Alcala as a 1 inning, 6th, 7th or 8th inning guy depending on needs or matchups.

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4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You forgot about Paddack.  Lopez / Ryan / Ober and Paddack have all proven they belong at this level.  Proving they are 1s,2s, or 3s is a different story but they are all solid MLB pitchers.  Having 4 cost-controlled SPs as well as a BP full of const controlled RPs puts them in a very good position to go out and sign a very good free agent SP.  That would leave them with Winder / SWR and Varland and perhaps Balazovic or Canterino as depth.  They are not going to be back in the position of signing someone like Happ, Archer or Bundy. 

Paddack? he has pitched 36 innings since July of 21, so call me crazy but he has quite a bit to prove before given a starting job (I hope he does), Ryan has to prove that he is someplace in between who he was last year against the Royals/Tigers and the rest of the league IMO (I again I hope he does and have faith that he will, but....) Ober has been pretty/really good when healthy and in a limited role and needs to prove he can be stay healthy before writing his name down as a starter the next few year, again IMO.

So as of 2/2/22 for 24, you have 1 in Lopez, 1 likely in Ryan, 1 probably in Ober, and 1 hopeful in Paddack. So they all work out and the other prospects don't they could try to resign Mahle/Gray/Maeda or a young guys steps up they are fine. But if only one or two of Ryan/Ober/Paddack works out then we are back to trying to fill a couple of spots.

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If you can take Falvey at his word, this is, um, a nearly fire-able statement (or will be).

There are so many issues and potential issues with this pen that to not add a very quality arm to it is a crime.  Ever since the Twins last had some good bullpens 17+ years ago, the front office and field staff have been overestimating its quality.

Alcala? Injured.  Duran? Regression and/or injury possibility.  Lopez? Well, he's sucked his whole career except for the four months prior to coming here.  Moran?  Doesn't throw the ball over the plate enough.  Thielbar?  He was out of professional baseball not long ago.  Megill?  Well, he sort of stinks.  Jax? He was decent for one year and could easily regress.  Pagan?  Do I have to say it?

Adding a guy like Fulmer would be huge and is definitely necessary.

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14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I put Winder in the pen because he showed at times last year he could take on a good team for multiple innings (mostly pre-injury) and he could be used more as a piggy back guy or somebody to come in when something bad happens to a starter and pitch 3,4,5 innings or spot start if needed. I think of Alcala as a 1 inning, 6th, 7th or 8th inning guy depending on needs or matchups.

Then what was Maeda's role in the pen? You want 2 long relief guys? I'm not saying that's a terrible idea, just curious. I'd hope the rotation is stable enough this year (and I think they will be) that there shouldn't be a need for 2 long guys in the pen, and an extra 1 inning 6th, 7th, or 8th inning guy would be more valuable.

I expect this rotation to get through 5 or 6 innings almost every night based on talent (injuries obviously can screw a game up quick). With 8 pen guys and a rotation that is getting 5 or 6 a night I'd only have 1 long guy in the pen, and mine would actually be Ober (I don't trust him to hold up under a starter's workload) or Pagan (for 2 inning spurts). My spot starter would be the AAA rotation. If/when Ober gets hurt, or is put into the rotation because 1 of them gets hurt, Winder would be first in line (as of now) to take Ober's spot in Minneapolis as the long guy.

Rotation: Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda
Pen: Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Pagan, Ober

AAA Rotation: Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick/Dobnak if Headrick starts at AA
Pen: Megill, Sands, Henriquez, Coulombe, De Leon, Dobnak, Ortega, Shulfer

That's how I'd have it as of today. The Twins are going to need 10+ starters this year. Like every other team. I'm not worried about forcing the young guys in the rotation to start the season. If they average 25 starts (feels reasonable) between the starters that's 125 starts. That leaves 37 starts for Ober, Varland, SWR, and Winder. Almost 10 starts a guy I think is plenty to get their feet wet and "establish themselves" for 2024. A Paddack style blown elbow 6 starts into the season for someone opens 26 more starts for those young guys. I think the Twins have their rotation setup perfectly to try to win in 2023, and get young guys experience.

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4 hours ago, miller761 said:

There are a fair amount of bullpen arms out there unsigned. Pretty sure the FO is playing the waiting game for a great bargain. 

Great bargain OR they are waiting to announce, but already have a deal in principle with, a FA reliever??? Waiting for Roster spot.

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1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

2019 - 5.5, league average 5.2, Twins 9th

2020 - 4.7, league average 4.8, Twins 17th

2021 - 4.9, league average 5.0, Twins 20th

2022 - 4.8, league average 5.2, Twins 27th

Maybe it was not the strategy and 19 is the real strategy (which beside Berrios the other 4 main starters were below 5.66) or maybe it is all just a matter of circumstances, Either way until they reverse the trend I think it is fair statement to make.

 

2020 and 2021 are rounding errors from the average. Is this really a concern?

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23 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

If you can take Falvey at his word, this is, um, a nearly fire-able statement (or will be).

There are so many issues and potential issues with this pen that to not add a very quality arm to it is a crime.  Ever since the Twins last had some good bullpens 17+ years ago, the front office and field staff have been overestimating its quality.

Alcala? Injured.  Duran? Regression and/or injury possibility.  Lopez? Well, he's sucked his whole career except for the four months prior to coming here.  Moran?  Doesn't throw the ball over the plate enough.  Thielbar?  He was out of professional baseball not long ago.  Megill?  Well, he sort of stinks.  Jax? He was decent for one year and could easily regress.  Pagan?  Do I have to say it?

Adding a guy like Fulmer would be huge and is definitely necessary.

You think signing an ok RP is the difference between fireable and not?

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I get Falvey's comments. I really do. You can pencil in an 8 man bullpen in about 20 seconds...yes, including Pagan at this time...even before adding someone like Winder, Henriquez,  Sands, or any non roster invites like Coulombe to the pen. And there's the potential to be really good there. But I still don't understand just trusting in what you have, and some of the question marks you have, and not adding another piece or two that should raise the floor and doesn't force you to trust in "hope and possibilities" for continued improvement from Pagan, Moran, Megill, and a full return to effectiveness for Alacala.

But the FO is well known for late additions. There is still opportunity, and arguably need. I think several of us are in agreement they may have their eye on someone and might even have a gentleman's agreement in place once a 40 man roster opens up.

*And for the record, I hate the idea of moving Ober out of the rotation. But, unfortunately, someone might have to, at least initially. And it might be him. But we all know if that happens, someone will go down at some point.

 

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5 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I wonder, does this signal that they're thinking about moving guys like Winder or maybe even Ober to the pen?

I can see Winder in the pen but not Ober. I am confused why they were so adamant about Maeda being in the rotation. IMO I'd have Ober be the 5th starter and Maeda as a middle inning, some length, reliever. 

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1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

How did Cleveland get such a strong, deep bullpen. I know they traded for Clase when he was a prospect and then had to wait out a suspension. Without looking, did they go out and spend on $6-10 million relievers, or did they develop their guys and at some point start turning things over to their own guys and trusting their development. 

Chafin would mean that Moran likely goes back to St. Paul. Chafin has nothing left. That move might make the Twins worse. I'm OK with Fulmer. Solid 6th/7th inning guy. 

At some point, you have to trust your guys. Otherwise, you don't get Duran, Moran, or even Griffin Jax. Was he better in 2021 than Sands and Winder were in 2022? Not saying they'll be the same success stories if moved to the 'pen, but can't shut down that possibility. 

Chafin had a 2.83 ERA last year in 64 appearances and struck out 67 in 57.1 IP with a low WHIP.

Karinchuk is home grown for Cleveland, Eli Morgan home grown, Clase Houston, Sandlin home grown, Cody Morris home grown, Trevor Stephan home grown, Sam Hentges home grown (most of these home grown guys had 2 years in minors and up!), Brian Shaw Az. in 2012, then FA in 2021, I think, Enyel De Los Santos from Pirates, Anthony Gose home grown 30 yr old rookie!, Kirk McCarty home grown.

SO your point is well taken. I just think and have thought that Cleveland is in a class by themselves when it comes to identifying and developing young pitching. 

I don’t think the Twins pen is bad but not enough improved from last year. Henriquez might make a difference and hopefully Moran. I could see Winder in the pen. 

Falvey’s mind is made up but I’d go get the statistically rich Chafin and maybe Fulmer. But I really want to win this year.

The front office has not finished the job in my estimation but with patience, we’ve see them turn in for me what I would grade a B offseason. Get Cron, Gurriel, Chafin and Fulmer and I’ll give an A!

The good thing about established veterans is that there’s nothing to preclude a Winder, Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach or Kirilloff from beating them out if all breaks well for any of the top prospects.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I can see Winder in the pen but not Ober. I am confused why they were so adamant about Maeda being in the rotation. IMO I'd have Ober be the 5th starter and Maeda as a middle inning, some length, reliever. 

I think it's a long-term business move and not a short-term competitive move, Maeda's contract incentivizes him to start. If they don't give him a chance to do it, it's going to be harder to get anyone to sign a similar incentive-laden contract in the future.

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22 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

If you can take Falvey at his word, this is, um, a nearly fire-able statement (or will be).

There are so many issues and potential issues with this pen that to not add a very quality arm to it is a crime.  Ever since the Twins last had some good bullpens 17+ years ago, the front office and field staff have been overestimating its quality.

Alcala? Injured.  Duran? Regression and/or injury possibility.  Lopez? Well, he's sucked his whole career except for the four months prior to coming here.  Moran?  Doesn't throw the ball over the plate enough.  Thielbar?  He was out of professional baseball not long ago.  Megill?  Well, he sort of stinks.  Jax? He was decent for one year and could easily regress.  Pagan?  Do I have to say it?

Adding a guy like Fulmer would be huge and is definitely necessary.

DEPTH from FA market with an experienced reliever ties a nice bow on the off season!

If Falvey said that about our relief corps w/o actually trying to mislead competitors, it makes me sad!

Chafin - Hand - Fulmer…….maybe another 1 or 2 options. As I mentioned in the TD article on how “Fulmer is regressing on spin rates & ball movement,” not that serious. All these guys are worthwhile because they won’t blink if they walk the first guy they face in the 7th or 8th. Been there!!! Pagan - López give me zero confidence in tight situations - the very nature of pitching the last 2-3 innings in a game. The stuff between there ears is nearly as important as the stuff coming out of your hand!

None of options above are perfect, but experience in the Pen is difficult to quantify.

IF we sign a FA arm & move Maeda to the Pen for long work, we displace the 2 guys nobody trusts, Pagan & López.

BIG TRADE……Pagan - J. Lopez - Kepler Celestino……….for anybody!!!

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I believe that it is more important to have at least 2 open slots in your bullpen not committed to veteran mlb contracts than any single pitcher still available (though I understand the argument for Chafin).  We will want/need to rotate the middle or long-relievers to create a couple of extra spots on the 26-man.  Creatively done, you can stretch your roster to well over 30 without waiting for injury.

Don't believe we will add a RH power bat to back up anything.  No offense to CJ Cron, Gurriel, or Luke Voit, or others, but if Larnach or Kiriloff injuries are your concern, that's why you have Gordon, Farmer, Taylor, and hoping to give Julien an opening.  One cannot simultaneously request that we play the young guns and also advocate for filling the lineup with anchor contracts.

I also look at the 3 pending free agent starters and am reminded of a line from Step Brothers (which I'll paraphrase and change the names) - instead of Oprah, Hillary, Barbara Walters, we use Maeda, Mahle, Gray and say "sleep with one, marry one, kill one."  I think we stick with Kenta for the season and then let him walk, trade high on Sonny Gray if we're not directly aiming at the World Series as I think his value will be great for a number of borderline teams, and extend Mahle, but that's just a guess.....  We will have Paddock, Lopez, (resigned Mahle?), Ryan and an opening for any one of a number of potential starters.

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27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IF we sign a FA arm & move Maeda to the Pen for long work, we displace the 2 guys nobody trusts, Pagan & López.

You can't put a guy with Maeda's contract in the pen. At least not at the start of the year. And I trust Lopez. At least enough to start the year with him as my closer. Not saying you have to trust him, but somebody trusts him.

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

2020 and 2021 are rounding errors from the average. Is this really a concern?

if you are shooting for average or below, I guess not. but I actually didn't say it was a good or bad, right or wrong I posted the actual numbers for the Twins, and said it is a fair statement to make, based on a 3 year trend. It is weird how everybody loves stats and numbers, until they actually go against a feeling.

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1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Then what was Maeda's role in the pen? You want 2 long relief guys? I'm not saying that's a terrible idea, just curious. I'd hope the rotation is stable enough this year (and I think they will be) that there shouldn't be a need for 2 long guys in the pen, and an extra 1 inning 6th, 7th, or 8th inning guy would be more valuable.

Well I fully expect Maeda to be limited to start the season 50-75 pitches for at least a few starts, and it reality I think all the starters will be limited to start the season 60 - 85 or so. (Not saying that is a bad thing, just how it usually goes) and there could be a few times the run up that pitch count in 3 or 4 innings and will need guys to pick up the slack. When things get rolling I am hoping they get at least 5 innings every start and 6 most nights and then you won't need as many multiple innings guys, but to start the season I think it is better to have more than run 4 pitchers out there 3 nights in a row.

As far a Ober, I give him another chance to be a starter and if he can't hold up, move him to the pen or move on from him. As for the 35 year old Maeda besides for about 8 games in 20 he hasn't done much to prove he belongs in the rotation. He is a free agent at the end of the year they don't owe him anything, so I make him prove he belongs back in the rotation.

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2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Paddack? he has pitched 36 innings since July of 21, so call me crazy but he has quite a bit to prove before given a starting job (I hope he does), Ryan has to prove that he is someplace in between who he was last year against the Royals/Tigers and the rest of the league IMO (I again I hope he does and have faith that he will, but....) Ober has been pretty/really good when healthy and in a limited role and needs to prove he can be stay healthy before writing his name down as a starter the next few year, again IMO.

So as of 2/2/22 for 24, you have 1 in Lopez, 1 likely in Ryan, 1 probably in Ober, and 1 hopeful in Paddack. So they all work out and the other prospects don't they could try to resign Mahle/Gray/Maeda or a young guys steps up they are fine. But if only one or two of Ryan/Ober/Paddack works out then we are back to trying to fill a couple of spots.

You were speaking of what they will have available in 2024.  Lots of pitchers get injured.  Are we going to assume all of them will never be the same?  Paddack will be back this year so by 2024 the assumption should be he will manage a normal work load.  Could he get hurt again?  Sure.   Sometimes the expectations here get a little out of hand.  How many teams go into a season with 5 proven starters and additional depth?

Canterino / Balazovic / Festa and perhaps even Dobnak could also be contributing in 2024.  The sky is not falling just yet!

 

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19 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Well I fully expect Maeda to be limited to start the season 50-75 pitches for at least a few starts, and it reality I think all the starters will be limited to start the season 60 - 85 or so. (Not saying that is a bad thing, just how it usually goes) and there could be a few times the run up that pitch count in 3 or 4 innings and will need guys to pick up the slack. When things get rolling I am hoping they get at least 5 innings every start and 6 most nights and then you won't need as many multiple innings guys, but to start the season I think it is better to have more than run 4 pitchers out there 3 nights in a row.

As far a Ober, I give him another chance to be a starter and if he can't hold up, move him to the pen or move on from him. As for the 35 year old Maeda besides for about 8 games in 20 he hasn't done much to prove he belongs in the rotation. He is a free agent at the end of the year they don't owe him anything, so I make him prove he belongs back in the rotation.

I think they'll all be allowed to go 80+ right from the start. With a shortened spring training last year Joe Ryan still came out throwing 70 (4 innings), 82 (6), 85 (6), 90 (7) pitches per start in his 4 April starts. Gray threw 76 (4.2) in his first start, but was hurt in his 2nd. Paddack went 73 (4), 71 (5), 87 (5.2), 81 (5.1) in his first 4. That's an average of 79 pitches, and 5.1 innings, per start in April for the 3 guys who were any good in the rotation last year. If they were at basically 80 pitches and 5 innings per start coming off a shortened spring training I hope they can do at least that coming off a full spring training.

I don't care what they "owe" Maeda, but you're never signing a guy to an incentive heavy deal again if your stance is "we don't owe you anything and will cost you nearly $10 million by not allowing you any chance at all to reach those incentives."

Edit: Sorry, I skipped over the Ober part. But I wouldn't be upset with that Ober plan. He's a really hard decision for me. I don't want to lose another season of his to injury, but I also think he's a good pitcher that would be really nice to have in the rotation. Tough spot for him and Winder for me. Talent, but just can't seem to stay healthy. Canterino is already fully in my "move him to the pen" book, which sucks. But hopefully him and Duran can form a filthy 1-2 punch for the next half decade plus once Canterino is healthy again.

 

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33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

if you are shooting for average or below, I guess not. but I actually didn't say it was a good or bad, right or wrong I posted the actual numbers for the Twins, and said it is a fair statement to make, based on a 3 year trend. It is weird how everybody loves stats and numbers, until they actually go against a feeling.

Ya, I totally don't get the whole rounding thing at all.....like, I don't get standard deviation either. 

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2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Then what was Maeda's role in the pen? You want 2 long relief guys? I'm not saying that's a terrible idea, just curious. I'd hope the rotation is stable enough this year (and I think they will be) that there shouldn't be a need for 2 long guys in the pen, and an extra 1 inning 6th, 7th, or 8th inning guy would be more valuable.

I expect this rotation to get through 5 or 6 innings almost every night based on talent (injuries obviously can screw a game up quick). With 8 pen guys and a rotation that is getting 5 or 6 a night I'd only have 1 long guy in the pen, and mine would actually be Ober (I don't trust him to hold up under a starter's workload) or Pagan (for 2 inning spurts). My spot starter would be the AAA rotation. If/when Ober gets hurt, or is put into the rotation because 1 of them gets hurt, Winder would be first in line (as of now) to take Ober's spot in Minneapolis as the long guy.

Rotation: Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda
Pen: Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Pagan, Ober

AAA Rotation: Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick/Dobnak if Headrick starts at AA
Pen: Megill, Sands, Henriquez, Coulombe, De Leon, Dobnak, Ortega, Shulfer

That's how I'd have it as of today. The Twins are going to need 10+ starters this year. Like every other team. I'm not worried about forcing the young guys in the rotation to start the season. If they average 25 starts (feels reasonable) between the starters that's 125 starts. That leaves 37 starts for Ober, Varland, SWR, and Winder. Almost 10 starts a guy I think is plenty to get their feet wet and "establish themselves" for 2024. A Paddack style blown elbow 6 starts into the season for someone opens 26 more starts for those young guys. I think the Twins have their rotation setup perfectly to try to win in 2023, and get young guys experience.

Excellent analysis.

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4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which elite RP do you think they should sign right now?

None - it is the attitude not the desire to sign a high priced RP at this point when everything is picked over.  What I want is to replace Pagan with a young arm that can learn to be a good BP pitcher. 

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The Dodgers and Astros have used their talented young pitchers in relief as they hit the majors. It didn’t stop them from contributing as full time starters later in their career. The Twins have several near ready pitchers with options. They can make the back half of the pen much more flexible.

I am all for adding a reliever to the top end of the pen with Duran. I would not be excited about adding a reliever without options for the back half of the pen. I would rather use some of the AAA starter talent in that role.

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6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You mean two guys who didn't top 60 innings pitched last year, along with one who has made only 5 career starts at the mlb level? THAT means the expectation should be a deep run in the playoffs?

AAA playoffs.

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