Rumor: Falvey says "Bullpen not a priority"

[twins_89]

On 2/2/2023 at 8:54 PM, Danchat said:

Chafin would certainly be an upgrade, obviously price is the issue there. I'd also take Fulmer back since it appears that teams aren't willing to pay what he's asking for. I'd ditch Megill in a heartbeat, and of course Pagan too but we know he's staying. I wouldn't be upset if we don't add another arm with our salary around $150M, but it also wouldn't shock me if we reach midseason and we need to make a couple bullpen trades to keep it together.

With Spring training fast approaching, I'm wondering if the asking price of Chafin and/or Fulmer could be coming down to a point that would make sense the Twins.

[Roaddog]

14 hours ago, Brandon said:

If the bullpen is not a priority, why did we just resign Aaron Sanchez to compete for a spot?  Seems our bullpen is not fully set yet :)

Wasn't he signed to a minor league deal? I'd say he's just a bet option just in case of injury 

[Major League Ready]

On 2/3/2023 at 8:51 AM, sun said:

Just my personal opinion but I'm hoping that Maeda proves himself this year and resigns with the Twins next year. He had an excellent year as a Twin before his injury and he's an elite athlete. His age shouldn't get in the way of resigning him if he can pick up where he left off.

I also like McGill. I think that he has a strong arm and good velocity. I'm not so sure about Gray & Mahle in the future yet even though folks rate them highly. We'll see if they can deliver this year. I'm looking forward to Varland coming up and there will be more free agent pitchers & prospects available next year.

Looking for solutions in pitchers who will be 36 years old next year should not be Plan A.

[NotAboutWinning]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Looking for solutions in pitchers who will be 36 years old next year should not be Plan A.

Hmmm... someone should mention that to the Mets.

[lecroy24fan]

On 2/3/2023 at 9:52 PM, IndianaTwin said:

My memory of Maeda going to the bullpen for LA was that it was more about other quality guys returning from injury than it was about managing innings. He was the odd man out in the rotation, and after transitioning successfully the first time, they decided to do it again the next season.

But that's just my memory, and I don't have a good gene pool when it comes to memory loss.

It was all about preventing Kenta from reaching the incentives on his contract. 

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Hmmm... someone should mention that to the Mets.

The percentage of SPs who can still make an impact at 36 and beyond is miniscule so the fact that one or two exists hardly makes it a good idea.  Plus, Kenta Maeda is a long way from Verlander and Scherzer and we have yet to see how that plan works out.  

[Fatbat]

We have lots of really good young arms. One or two will transition to the BP this year and ear up the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. We don't need to keep signing older retreads. 

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Roaddog said:

Wasn't he signed to a minor league deal? I'd say he's just a bet option just in case of injury 

I was being sarcastic 

[mike8791]

I find this topic equally fascinating - and frustating.  Thank you, Brock, for bringing Falvey's comments to our attention.

While Falvey has demonstrated the ability to consummate trades that have helped this club, namely by adding such arms as Odorizzi,  Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and now Lopez, as well as the pickup of Duran, along with some key FA signings as Cruz and (hopefully Vazquez), he has been strangely quiet on the reliever front.

I say "strange" for a number of reasons:

1.  In the 2021/2022 offseason, despite the obvious weaknesses in the 2021 pen and a number of highly regarded FA relievers in the 2021/2022 offseason, the FO signed exactly one FA reliever - Joe Smith, who was released mid-season.  Falvey's response was the (rightly) much-maligned trade of their best reliever, Rogers, for an injury-riddled Paddock and a marginal reliever in Pagan.  When Pagan flamed out, the FO belatedly traded for the O's Lopez on August 1st, well after Pagan had proven his ineffectiveness earlier, especially against Cle.  Falvine's inactivity in the reliever FA market perhaps was as big a contributor to late season collapse as all the injuries.

2. The current offseason shows again the dichotomy in Falvey's planning.  By adding Correa, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor, he has given fans hope for a bounceback season in 2023.  Yes, I would like to have seen the addition of someone like Abreu or Josh Bell to protect against Kirillof's history of injuries, but that ship has sailed already.  Guerriel should be on Falvey's speed dial, but that is very doubtful.  The rotation is the strongest in years, as is the depth.  But yet again, Falvey is seemingly ignoring the pen!

3.  In these days of shorter starts, especially as espoused in Minnesota, an essential to winning a division title and even winning a playoff series or two is dependent on a shutdown bullpen, requiring a minimum of 3 late-inning relievers who have consistently shown the ability to strand runners and hold a lead. The alternative of one or two aces to start in a playoff is a pipe-dream, especially with Falvey's astounding failure to develop even one shutdown starter or reliever in 6 years of drafting coupled with his aversion to sign long term contracts with starters. In 2022 we enjoyed a great season from Duran and a surprising good one from 36 year-old Thielbar.  Even if we assume Duran stays durable and avoids a sophomore jinx and Thielbar can dodge father time and continue to strand runners( 22% in 2022), who else can we rely on?  Yes, Jax is frequently mentioned in the same breath but his 42% of IRS rate belies this high ranking.  Lopez has the potential, but not the track record, to instill confidence in late-game situations.  And the rest of the "designated pen" - Alcala, Pagan, Moran, Magill - are big question marks either due to injuries, lack of big league experience, or uneven big league performance.  For those Twin fans maintaining that the bullpen makeup should stay in flux to give some blocked minor league starters, like Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, etc.,  a chance to move up to the MLB pen by opening day, my question to you is:  why would a FO already  spending $150MM, the largest budget in team history, risk blowing the season(again) on what looks like an average, at best, bullpen?  

Amazingly, there are still several FA relievers out there(Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore) who are good(not sure) bets to raise the bullpen ceiling.  Sign at least one of these 3 and maybe a higher risk bet on someone like Britton or Hand.  Adding no more than $5-10MM a year on bolstering the pen is the kind of move a contending team should make.  If Falvey is serious about going with what he has, that is a much bigger risk than signing 1 or 2 FAs for less than $10MM.  If this team fails to make the playoffs again, Failvey should be fired.  No more excuses!!

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

I find this topic equally fascinating - and frustating.  Thank you, Brock, for bringing Falvey's comments to our attention.

While Falvey has demonstrated the ability to consummate trades that have helped this club, namely by adding such arms as Odorizzi,  Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and now Lopez, as well as the pickup of Duran, along with some key FA signings as Cruz and (hopefully Vazquez), he has been strangely quiet on the reliever front.

I say "strange" for a number of reasons:

1.  In the 2021/2022 offseason, despite the obvious weaknesses in the 2021 pen and a number of highly regarded FA relievers in the 2021/2022 offseason, the FO signed exactly one FA reliever - Joe Smith, who was released mid-season.  Falvey's response was the (rightly) much-maligned trade of their best reliever, Rogers, for an injury-riddled Paddock and a marginal reliever in Pagan.  When Pagan flamed out, the FO belatedly traded for the O's Lopez on August 1st, well after Pagan had proven his ineffectiveness earlier, especially against Cle.  Falvine's inactivity in the reliever FA market perhaps was as big a contributor to late season collapse as all the injuries.

2. The current offseason shows again the dichotomy in Falvey's planning.  By adding Correa, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor, he has given fans hope for a bounceback season in 2023.  Yes, I would like to have seen the addition of someone like Abreu or Josh Bell to protect against Kirillof's history of injuries, but that ship has sailed already.  Guerriel should be on Falvey's speed dial, but that is very doubtful.  The rotation is the strongest in years, as is the depth.  But yet again, Falvey is seemingly ignoring the pen!

3.  In these days of shorter starts, especially as espoused in Minnesota, an essential to winning a division title and even winning a playoff series or two is dependent on a shutdown bullpen, requiring a minimum of 3 late-inning relievers who have consistently shown the ability to strand runners and hold a lead. The alternative of one or two aces to start in a playoff is a pipe-dream, especially with Falvey's astounding failure to develop even one shutdown starter or reliever in 6 years of drafting coupled with his aversion to sign long term contracts with starters. In 2022 we enjoyed a great season from Duran and a surprising good one from 36 year-old Thielbar.  Even if we assume Duran stays durable and avoids a sophomore jinx and Thielbar can dodge father time and continue to strand runners( 22% in 2022), who else can we rely on?  Yes, Jax is frequently mentioned in the same breath but his 42% of IRS rate belies this high ranking.  Lopez has the potential, but not the track record, to instill confidence in late-game situations.  And the rest of the "designated pen" - Alcala, Pagan, Moran, Magill - are big question marks either due to injuries, lack of big league experience, or uneven big league performance.  For those Twin fans maintaining that the bullpen makeup should stay in flux to give some blocked minor league starters, like Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, etc.,  a chance to move up to the MLB pen by opening day, my question to you is:  why would a FO already  spending $150MM, the largest budget in team history, risk blowing the season(again) on what looks like an average, at best, bullpen?  

Amazingly, there are still several FA relievers out there(Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore) who are good(not sure) bets to raise the bullpen ceiling.  Sign at least one of these 3 and maybe a higher risk bet on someone like Britton or Hand.  Adding no more than $5-10MM a year on bolstering the pen is the kind of move a contending team should make.  If Falvey is serious about going with what he has, that is a much bigger risk than signing 1 or 2 FAs for less than $10MM.  If this team fails to make the playoffs again, Failvey should be fired.  No more excuses!!

Remove four players currently in the roster? Yikes. Who are you willing to lose to take this chance? In addition to  pagan?

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

It was all about preventing Kenta from reaching the incentives on his contract. 

"All about..." seems too strong.

I wasn't there, so I can't say that incentive issues wasn't a factor, but in 2019, for example, the move to the bullpen on Sept. 1 probably only saved the Dodgers about $1.75 million. Maeda finished with 26 starts and would have probably gotten to the next step at 30 starts, but not 32, so that was $1.5M in savings for the team. He finished with 153.2 innings, but pitched 15.2 of those from the bullpen in September. Convert that to five additional starts and it probably meant an extra 10-12 innings, enough to get the $250k bonus for 160 innings, but not the $250k for 170 innings.

Additionally, the switch happened at a time when his ERA had gone from 3.71 in mid-July to 4.21 at the end of August thanks to a 5.35 ERA over his last five starts. In addition, Urias and his 2.53 ERA and Stripling and is 3.64 ERA were coming off the IL, so it made baseball sense to slide them into the rotation.

And though I didn't dig into the context of 2017 and 2018, I did notice that the shift to the bullpen happened at 20 and 25 starts respectively, which smells a lot different than doing it at 19 and 24 starts. In other words, at the least, they allowed him to reach an incentive step before making the switch. 

[lecroy24fan]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

"All about..." seems too strong.

I wasn't there, so I can't say that incentive issues wasn't a factor, but in 2019, for example, the move to the bullpen on Sept. 1 probably only saved the Dodgers about $1.75 million. Maeda finished with 26 starts and would have probably gotten to the next step at 30 starts, but not 32, so that was $1.5M in savings for the team. He finished with 153.2 innings, but pitched 15.2 of those from the bullpen in September. Convert that to five additional starts and it probably meant an extra 10-12 innings, enough to get the $250k bonus for 160 innings, but not the $250k for 170 innings.

Additionally, the switch happened at a time when his ERA had gone from 3.71 in mid-July to 4.21 at the end of August thanks to a 5.35 ERA over his last five starts. In addition, Urias and his 2.53 ERA and Stripling and is 3.64 ERA were coming off the IL, so it made baseball sense to slide them into the rotation.

And though I didn't dig into the context of 2017 and 2018, I did notice that the shift to the bullpen happened at 20 and 25 starts respectively, which smells a lot different than doing it at 19 and 24 starts. In other words, at the least, they allowed him to reach an incentive step before making the switch. 

they were doing everything they could to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold. 

[mike8791]

Mike Sixel: Remove four players currently in the roster? Yikes. Who are you willing to lose to take this chance? In addition to  pagan?

Huh!  I mentioned signing one of the top 3 FA relievers remaining, and possibly take a chance of a high risk additional signing.  Falling in love with all these prospects is a sure-fire way to continue our streak of 20 straight years of Not One Playoff Victory.  

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Mike Sixel: Remove four players currently in the roster? Yikes. Who are you willing to lose to take this chance? In addition to  pagan?

Huh!  I mentioned signing one of the top 3 FA relievers remaining, and possibly take a chance of a high risk additional signing.  Falling in love with all these prospects is a sure-fire way to continue our streak of 20 straight years of Not One Playoff Victory.  

I clearly read that wrong! sorry.

[stringer bell]

There are a lot of bullpens that could benefit from one of the remaining free agents featured here. Why aren't they signed? It appears almost every 40-man roster is filled and no one seems to want to expose more players to be claimed. Perhaps the price tags are higher than the teams are willing to disburse mid-inning and setup people. 

I personally like the idea of adding another lefty to the mix, but it doesn't appear the Twins or anyone else is that interested at the rate currently demanded by the free agents.

[Craig Arko]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

There are a lot of bullpens that could benefit from one of the remaining free agents featured here. Why aren't they signed? It appears almost every 40-man roster is filled and no one seems to want to expose more players to be claimed. Perhaps the price tags are higher than the teams are willing to disburse mid-inning and setup people. 

I personally like the idea of adding another lefty to the mix, but it doesn't appear the Twins or anyone else is that interested at the rate currently demanded by the free agents.

There’s always the famous Renaissance left-handed philosopher Locke St. John.

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

There’s always the famous Renaissance left-handed philosopher Locke St. John.

I saw he was signed. Must be behind Coulombe and Moran.

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Mike Sixel: Remove four players currently in the roster? Yikes. Who are you willing to lose to take this chance? In addition to  pagan?

Huh!  I mentioned signing one of the top 3 FA relievers remaining, and possibly take a chance of a high risk additional signing.  Falling in love with all these prospects is a sure-fire way to continue our streak of 20 straight years of Not One Playoff Victory.  

Failing to invest innings in prospects is an even better way to be mediocre.  It's not like they would be banking on one guy to step-up.  They have Ober / Winder / Sands / Megill and Sanchez.  Since the beginning of last year, they have added Lopez.  Alcala is back.  Jax improved a bunch.  Moran got a foothold.  Sands looked decent and the additions to the rotation have made Ober / Winder available.  Plus Varland could take over a spot in the BP.  It's hardly a travesty they have not signed a RP.  

[Linus]

Any bullpen including Pagan and Megill needs improvement. 

[Aerodeliria]

On 2/2/2023 at 11:56 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

It does feel like they are banking on the rotation giving more innings per start compared to last year. On paper, that actually does make quite a bit of sense.

And IF the rotation gives more innings, meaning less innings that the bullpen HAS to cover on a per-game basis, that helps too.

I still think they add at least one more arm before opening day. Quotes like this seem more like posturing than anything else.

Are they banking on this? I think we have had ad nauseum discussions ending up with a general concensus that they won't likely change the way they deal with starting pitching (i.e., twice through and then go to the bullpen...) regardless of who is in charge.

[Cory Engelhardt]

58 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

Are they banking on this? I think we have had ad nauseum discussions ending up with a general concensus that they won't likely change the way they deal with starting pitching (i.e., twice through and then go to the bullpen...) regardless of who is in charge.

That has never been the case when they have had starters who at least #3 starters. Look at Berrios in 2021; before the trade he was leading the American League in innings pitched. If a guy is a quality pitcher they are handed differently. 

[Aerodeliria]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That has never been the case when they have had starters who at least #3 starters. Look at Berrios in 2021; before the trade he was leading the American League in innings pitched. If a guy is a quality pitcher they are handed differently. 

I guess it comes down to trust. They trusted Berrios even when he was getting hit hard. Do they trust who they have now?

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I guess it comes down to trust. They trusted Berrios even when he was getting hit hard. Do they trust who they have now?

More than Archer and Bundy? 1,000%

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Linus said:

Any bullpen including Pagan and Megill needs improvement. 

Megill is not in the BP opening day with the possible exception he looks so good in spring training that they give him a shot.  It's no condemnation if Pagan is your worst RP

[East Coast Twin]

On 2/2/2023 at 11:41 AM, DJL44 said:

You're paying $750,000 for the opportunity to add someone else to the roster. I would be surprised if they never use Canterino's 40 man spot some time next season. You bring up a good point that they could wait until May to use that spot and gain that extra year of service time He's controlled ages 25-30, delaying service time means you get his age 31 season. I'm not convinced Canterino will still be in organized baseball at age 32.

I imagine he'll be optioned to start 2024 when he returns from Tommy John.  He's only pitched a few games above class A ball.

 

[farmerguychris]

I support this F.O.  However, if this is truly accurate than I will forecast this will be what ends up costing them their jobs.  It is impossible to BOTH  prevent your starters from going thru the lineup a 3rd time AND not have a quality BP.  Stud starters can make up for a weaker pen or a Stud pen can make up (a little) for weak starters - unfortunately we have a middle of the road set of starters and a pen that 'is not a priority'.  I don't see how that will work???!!!😬

[August J Gloop]

They already have a good bullpen. Adding now is at the cost of existing players. I know, I know Pagan singlehandedly cost us the division. (I'm only kind of exaggerating.) They probably shouldn't have kept him, but the staff sees something there to build on (Great strikeout rates, an improving groundball rate). 

But he's legitimately the worst pitcher currently expected to be in the 'Pen. With the Sanchez signing, they have 9 AAA starters in the fold. There's no way that they're not thinking about Sands, Winder, Varland as possible + relievers for this year. Varland could be a high 90s 1 inning dude and have a great season. Sands and Winder could easily pitch in the mid 90s as well in relief roles. Headrick could be a strikeout machine ALA Johan's first couple seasons out of the pen.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 2/4/2023 at 9:16 AM, h2oface said:

I think they should try to find another Lopez. Hell, double down again...... double down on..... a couple Lopezes!

Add confusion to the minds of the opposition with Lopez, Lopez, Lopez and Lopez! If they had the same first names as one of the other two - gravy. I mean, it's confusing me already, and there are just 2. Go Lopez crazy!

Are there any other Byrons?  Twins have Buxton and Chourious. Heck, is there a Byron Lopez out there?

[laloesch]

On 2/2/2023 at 1:29 PM, wsnydes said:

Well, with the injury history of the rotation they've built, I can't say that I blame them on the last part!

I suppose that it's just as plausible that they don't want to have to make a decision on such a thing before they have to and prefer to see how things pan out in Spring Training and making a decision at that point.  I'm completely fine with that approach.  No reason to create a firestorm (from either side of the coin) if one doesn't need to be made.

It may still happen.  Gleeman has been wrong before on predictions.  

[CRF]

Saw a report from Doogie this morning, that the Twins are interested in Brad Hand. He wouldn't be too bad of an addition to the pen.