Rumor: Falvey says "Bullpen not a priority"

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Can they option Lewis or does he start on the MLB injured list because he was injured in MLB?

I’m not sure, but I’m guessing he stays on the major league roster. 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Maeda isn't going to start the year in the pen, he's in the rotation. More likely Ober starts the year in AAA, or the pen. And I'd be surprised if they had Winder in the big league pen and not the AAA rotation instead of Alcala in the big league pen. But I can also see why they aren't looking to bring in another arm. Although, I'd like to bring in Chafin if it's possible. I'm not sold on Thielbar maintaining his production at 36 and would prefer Moran starts in AAA (even though I think he can be a stud) with Thielbar and Chafin in the bigs to provide a little more depth. But I'd be good waiting until I get Paddack on the 60-day to try to sign Chafin.

Not saying you are wrong but if the twins put 27 year old Ober, 26 year old Winder and 25 year old Varland in the minors, the expectation for the should be a deep run in the playoffs and nothing less should be acceptable.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

25 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In 2021, the Brewers were wildly successful with a six man rotation and would have done it again in 2022 if not for injuries.

In 2022, the Astros were wildly successful with a six man rotation.

Honestly, I think the bigger indictment of the front office is that they're not strongly considering a six man rotation.

I see what you are saying but both teams got their stud pitchers the most starts, so if the Twins did something like 30 for Lopez, 28 for Gray, 28 for Mahle, 28, 26 for Ryan, 24 for Ober, and 20-22 for Maeda, that I could agree with. But not running 6 guys out there to get equal starts (assuming no injuries of course)

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Muppet said:

Assuming Celestino and Matt Wallner start the year in St. Paul, and that Kirilloff gets a few starts in RF, the Twins will have more outfield arms than bullpen arms. Seems smart. If your tired mediocre bullpen that pitches more than 4 innings per game starts to falter, your stacked outfield can surely get those extra outs. 

Byron Buxton can beat the other team in so many ways!

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not saying you are wrong but if the twins put 27 year old Ober, 26 year old Winder and 25 year old Varland in the minors, the expectation for the should be a deep run in the playoffs and nothing less should be acceptable.

 

I mean Alcala is "only" 27 so not sure why he'd be the one to go to AAA over guys like Winder and Varland. 

I think the expectation should absolutely be a division title and winning some playoff games. Whether those 3 are in the minors or not. They have 4 veterans + Ryan in the rotation. I don't get why you'd move any of them just because Ober, Winder, and Varland are 27, 26, and 25. None of those guys are good enough prospects to make a hole in the rotation for. And 2 of them have a lot to do to show they can stay even reasonably healthy for a year. Ober is the only one I see as having a real gripe about being sent to AAA because of his MLB performance, but he's never stayed healthy in pro ball. Those other 2 are exactly what teams look for in depth pieces because they know they're going to need at least 10 starters on the year.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

They won't put Canterino on the 60-Day IL unless something crazy happens. Why would they pay him $750,000 to not play (and MLB service time) when they can option him to St. Paul, pay him $15K per month and not give any service time. 

But, along with the starting pitcher depth, the hope is there would be more health, so there should be more 6-inning starts. 

Finally, why go sign a guy like Fulmer (and he's probably the best out there), rather than just throwing Winder, Henriquez, Sands, and even Ober if he's not in the rotation. I mean, later in the season, maybe even someone like Varland or Balazovic can come up and have an impact. 

I think he’s taking the wrong approach. A deep, strong bullpen can add several wins to a team - look at Cleveland. I fay disagree with Falvey on this.

However, I’ve been a strong critic of Falvine’s work post 2019. I have to balance it by giving credit where credit is due. Pablo Lopez was a superb acquisition and so was Michael A. Taylor. I’m giving the benefit of the doubt on Gallo based on his past record.

Even though crazily circuitous, the re-signing of Carlos Correa is huge. I even like the Willi Castro signing - I think he may help. Signing Kyle Farmer will look great, I think. 78 RBIs last year, would have lead the Twins.

If it was me, I’d get one more bat, like CJ Cron or Gurriel or Profar (who all could play 1B) due to the unpredictably of Kirilloff and  Larnach, both in terms of injuries and not having proven they are major leaguers.

And keeping Kepler will be detrimental. Addition by subtraction.

So, lots of good moves, incomplete, which seems to be the Falvine way. Fulmer and Chafin would make the Twins a better team. Sands has shown little. Winders a question mark. I do like Henriquez, though.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I read the same thing, I thought there'd be stir in Twinsdom. I can see the point of what Falvey is saying. Our rotation & BP looks so much better than last year. I expect some kind of piggy-backing with Maeda & Ober. I'd like get Varland, Winder & SWR some regular time in the MLB via long relief/ spot starting. That's a lot of pitchers & not enough innings.

If Falvey is in the market for RPs we won't advertise it. But if one fell in his lap he wouldn't pass up on him, I hope. You can't have enough quality BP pitchers.

[wsnydes]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I hate the idea of moving Ober to the pen and suspect the front office feels the same way.

I'm pretty okay with Winder going to the pen.

Agreed.  Ober's stuff seems like it would play better as a rotation guy.  Winder is basically the opposite.  

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Honestly, I think the bigger indictment of the front office is that they're not strongly considering a six man rotation.

Have they ruled this out?  I don't recall seeing anything one way or the other.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Have they ruled this out?  I don't recall seeing anything one way or the other.

Gleeman has stated they have punted on the question but that could just be them assuming somebody is going to get hurt before it becomes a real option.

[Unwinder]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

But not running 6 guys out there to get equal starts (assuming no injuries of course)

I think the no-injury scenario isn't even seriously worth planning for. A six-man rotation is always going to be a temporary luxury.

[wsnydes]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Gleeman has stated they have punted on the question but that could just be them assuming somebody is going to get hurt before it becomes a real option.

Well, with the injury history of the rotation they've built, I can't say that I blame them on the last part!

I suppose that it's just as plausible that they don't want to have to make a decision on such a thing before they have to and prefer to see how things pan out in Spring Training and making a decision at that point.  I'm completely fine with that approach.  No reason to create a firestorm (from either side of the coin) if one doesn't need to be made.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not saying you are wrong but if the twins put 27 year old Ober, 26 year old Winder and 25 year old Varland in the minors, the expectation for the should be a deep run in the playoffs and nothing less should be acceptable.

 

You mean two guys who didn't top 60 innings pitched last year, along with one who has made only 5 career starts at the mlb level? THAT means the expectation should be a deep run in the playoffs?

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It is an illogical position when you consider how many RP appearances we had last year.  Is Rocco going to change his strategy - did he turn over the instruction page and realize that SP can go 6 - 7 innings?  

In today's MLB the BP is the priority.  KC in their WS years changed the paradigm, the Yankees built on this and so did many other staffs.   

It's almost like people forget this was NOT the strategy before last year, when they had injured and bad starters. I have no idea why anyone thinks it will be the same as last year. none. 

I also see no need to add any of the available RPers. I'm not 100% sure they are better than the existing options, especially if Alcala is healthy. 

If they are in at the break, and need a RP, and a great one is there, they will trade for them.

[Seth Stohs]

34 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I think he’s taking the wrong approach. A deep, strong bullpen can add several wins to a team - look at Cleveland. I fay disagree with Falvey on this.

<snip>

So, lots of good moves, incomplete, which seems to be the Falvine way. Fulmer and Chafin would make the Twins a better team. Sands has shown little. Winders a question mark. I do like Henriquez, though.

How did Cleveland get such a strong, deep bullpen. I know they traded for Clase when he was a prospect and then had to wait out a suspension. Without looking, did they go out and spend on $6-10 million relievers, or did they develop their guys and at some point start turning things over to their own guys and trusting their development. 

Chafin would mean that Moran likely goes back to St. Paul. Chafin has nothing left. That move might make the Twins worse. I'm OK with Fulmer. Solid 6th/7th inning guy. 

At some point, you have to trust your guys. Otherwise, you don't get Duran, Moran, or even Griffin Jax. Was he better in 2021 than Sands and Winder were in 2022? Not saying they'll be the same success stories if moved to the 'pen, but can't shut down that possibility. 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You mean two guys who didn't top 60 innings pitched last year, along with one who has made only 5 career starts at the mlb level? THAT means the expectation should be a deep run in the playoffs?

Ober pitched 72 innings last year and had an ERA of 3.21, Varland pitched 152 innings last year and is two time defending pitcher of the year,  and Winder pitched 85 innings last year, so 60?

What I am saying is basically three of your best pitching prospects are all over the age of 25 and not good enough to start in the majors, that has to mean the ones above are really, really good, so the expectation should be pretty high if your starters are that good, no? or this FO is terrible at developing pitchers, it has to be one of the two, doesn't it?

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they are in at the break, and need a RP, and a great one is there, they will trade for them.

"Great" relief pitchers tend to become not great quickly. You're almost always best off buying a cheap reliever (like Fulmer) to shore up the back end of the bullpen than paying what it costs to get a "great" relief pitcher (like Lopez for the Twins or Hader for the Padres) at the deadline.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Ober pitched 72 innings last year and had an ERA of 3.21, Varland pitched 152 innings last year and is two time defending pitcher of the year,  and Winder pitched 85 innings last year, so 60?

What I am saying is basically three of your best pitching prospects are all over the age of 25 and not good enough to start in the majors, that has to mean the ones above are really, really good, so the expectation should be pretty high if your starters are that good, no? or this FO is terrible at developing pitchers, it has to be one of the two, doesn't it?

You are right, I forgot minor league innings. 

I don't know that I can pencil any of these 3 as MORE than #5 starters though. I hope they can be, I guess we'll see. And I'd argue that you can NEVER have enough pitching. But I can't get behind that the Twins are going to be lights out because Ober and Winder may spend time in St. Paul. 

They do have depth, barring health. That's a good thing, and I will agree to that. 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It is an illogical position when you consider how many RP appearances we had last year.  Is Rocco going to change his strategy - did he turn over the instruction page and realize that SP can go 6 - 7 innings?  

In today's MLB the BP is the priority.  KC in their WS years changed the paradigm, the Yankees built on this and so did many other staffs.   

This 100%. They key to winning in the modern game is a shutdown pen.  Especially for a team like the Twins that is projected to struggle scoring runs.

And, yes, the predictions that our starters are magically going to be throwing an extra inning plus per game are way overly optimistic.  For that to happen: a) Mahle and Maeda will need to be healthy and stay healthy out of the gate; b) we’d need to overly rely on Lopez - which is stupid since he tired at the end of last year and we need him next year; c) we will forgo getting rocked and/or building length when we eventually start our younger guys - Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR; ; and d) Rocco would need to change his indelible spots. None of those are happening.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean Alcala is "only" 27 so not sure why he'd be the one to go to AAA over guys like Winder and Varland. 

I think the expectation should absolutely be a division title and winning some playoff games. Whether those 3 are in the minors or not. They have 4 veterans + Ryan in the rotation. I don't get why you'd move any of them just because Ober, Winder, and Varland are 27, 26, and 25. None of those guys are good enough prospects to make a hole in the rotation for. And 2 of them have a lot to do to show they can stay even reasonably healthy for a year. Ober is the only one I see as having a real gripe about being sent to AAA because of his MLB performance, but he's never stayed healthy in pro ball. Those other 2 are exactly what teams look for in depth pieces because they know they're going to need at least 10 starters on the year.

Because he pitched three total innings last year, and never has been great, so IMO he has to prove he is back and better than he ever has been, or he is the last guy out of the pen or maybe 1 before Pagan. Doesn't seem like the best way for him to get the innings he needs. Maybe in spring training he is awesome and flat out better than a handful of guys and forces his way onto the team (Which was would great!) but as of 2/2 I don't think he should be considered a lock to start the season in MPLS.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

This 100%. They key to winning in the modern game is a shutdown pen.  Especially for a team like the Twins that is projected to struggle scoring runs.

And, yes, the predictions that our starters are magically going to be throwing an extra inning plus per game are way overly optimistic.  For that to happen: a) Mahle and Maeda will need to be healthy and stay healthy out of the gate; b) we’d need to overly rely on Lopez - which is stupid since he tired at the end of last year and we need him next year; c) we will forgo getting rocked and/or building length when we eventually start our younger guys - Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR; ; and d) Rocco would need to change his indelible spots. None of those are happening.

You realize this was not the strategy before last year, right? When they had Archer and Bundy (both bad and hurt) and Ryan who was a rookie (wanted to limit his innings so he didn't tire like Lopez)? Not to mention some injuries? I guess if you assume they will get rocked when they start every other starter, well, why even try to get better if you just assume they will fail anyway?

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You are right, I forgot minor league innings. 

I don't know that I can pencil any of these 3 as MORE than #5 starters though. I hope they can be, I guess we'll see. And I'd argue that you can NEVER have enough pitching. But I can't get behind that the Twins are going to be lights out because Ober and Winder may spend time in St. Paul. 

They do have depth, barring health. That's a good thing, and I will agree to that. 

With Gray, Mahle and Maeda being free agents at the end of the year I hope this FO thinks they are a legit team this year and not playing lets wait and see, because if they are thinking lets wait and see, I would rather that be with prospects that have a chance to be here longer and trade those pitchers for more young pitching prospects.

The Twins 40 man is loaded with starters, Balazovic, Gray, Headrick, Henriquez, Lopez, Maeda, Mahle, Ober, Paddack (I know he is hurt), Sands (probably a relief pitcher), Varland, Winder and SWR. Lets be honest only two are young (Henriquez and SWR), and unless there are real plans to sign Gray, Mahle and Maeda they are going to have to know what they have with this prospects sooner than later and there should be enough innings to do that with them in the majors this year, even if it means a partial 6 man rotation type of thing.

[Muppet]

Ober may have missed time to injuries last year, but when he did play he was one of the most dominant on the team. Only Sonny Gray had a lower ERA but Ober had a better whip than any of the starters and fewer HR/9 than any of the starters. 
The flip side was that he almost only played against AL Central teams who obviously weren't the best in the league. When the Twins did lose with Ober pitching they lost 1-8; 0-5; 3-4; 2-5; and 2-3. Clayton Kershaw would have lost most of those games. ALSO, the bullpen lost 3 of those 5 games Ober pitched in. This tells me 3 things. 1. Ober belongs in the rotation until he gives the Twins a reason to be demoted, and 2. The Twins need offence more than they need starting pitching, and 3. The bullpen needs to be better than last year. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

With Gray, Mahle and Maeda being free agents at the end of the year I hope this FO thinks they are a legit team this year and not playing lets wait and see, because if they are thinking lets wait and see, I would rather that be with prospects that have a chance to be here longer and trade those pitchers for more young pitching prospects.

The Twins 40 man is loaded with starters, Balazovic, Gray, Headrick, Henriquez, Lopez, Maeda, Mahle, Ober, Paddack (I know he is hurt), Sands (probably a relief pitcher), Varland, Winder and SWR. Lets be honest only two are young (Henriquez and SWR), and unless there are real plans to sign Gray, Mahle and Maeda they are going to have to know what they have with this prospects sooner than later and there should be enough innings to do that with them in the majors this year, even if it means a partial 6 man rotation type of thing.

I'm hopeful for a Mahle extension. I don't see Gray or Maeda back in 2024, and I fully expect over the year that Varland and possibly one other (SWR) move into roles where, regardless of if they are a #3 or #4 starter, we know they will be in the 2024 rotation. Maybe someone else can take those reins (Balazovic being fully healthy is exciting to me too) but I'd imagine MOST of the guys you listed will either be converted to bullpen or act as depth, even next year too. Or, frankly, if the saying goes "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect" then maybe they are traded or something over time? It'll be fun to see it play out.

[Nashvilletwin]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You realize this was not the strategy before last year, right? When they had Archer and Bundy (both bad and hurt) and Ryan who was a rookie (wanted to limit his innings so he didn't tire like Lopez)? Not to mention some injuries? I guess if you assume they will get rocked when they start every other starter, well, why even try to get better if you just assume they will fail anyway?

I’m not assuming our entire staff will get “rocked” and never wrote that.  My point was when the younger guys begin getting starts, it is more than likely that some of those starts will be short due to performance and/or stamina. Thus, the importance of the pen. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, Muppet said:

Ober may have missed time to injuries last year, but when he did play he was one of the most dominant on the team. Only Sonny Gray had a lower ERA but Ober had a better whip than any of the starters and fewer HR/9 than any of the starters. 
The flip side was that he almost only played against AL Central teams who obviously weren't the best in the league. When the Twins did lose with Ober pitching they lost 1-8; 0-5; 3-4; 2-5; and 2-3. Clayton Kershaw would have lost most of those games. ALSO, the bullpen lost 3 of those 5 games Ober pitched in. This tells me 3 things. 1. Ober belongs in the rotation until he gives the Twins a reason to be demoted, and 2. The Twins need offence more than they need starting pitching, and 3. The bullpen needs to be better than last year. 

I agree with you that Ober definitely has talent. I hope we can see him pitch 120+ innings in a season at some point. IF that happens, I believe good results will follow.

[mikelink45]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's almost like people forget this was NOT the strategy before last year, when they had injured and bad starters. I have no idea why anyone thinks it will be the same as last year. none. 

I also see no need to add any of the available RPers. I'm not 100% sure they are better than the existing options, especially if Alcala is healthy. 

If they are in at the break, and need a RP, and a great one is there, they will trade for them.

I am not arguing this, I just think that no matter if it is the same or changes, BP has become a high priority for most teams in this period of baseball. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m not assuming our entire staff will get “rocked” and never wrote that.  My point was when the younger guys begin getting starts, it is more than likely that some of those starts will be short due to performance and/or stamina.

 we will forgo getting rocked and/or building length when we eventually start our younger guys - Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR; ........ None of those are happening. I guess I didn't understand what this meant. Nor did you really address the main point about starters going longer....

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, mikelink45 said:

I am not arguing this, I just think that no matter if it is the same or changes, BP has become a high priority for most teams in this period of baseball. 

Which elite RP do you think they should sign right now?

[Nashvilletwin]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

 we will forgo getting rocked and/or building length when we eventually start our younger guys - Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR; ........ None of those are happening. I guess I didn't understand what this meant. Nor did you really address the main point about starters going longer....

Exactly. We won’t let the younger guys stay in too long when they are getting hit and/or getting to pitch limits.