5 Twins Players with Something Specific to Prove This Year

[Nine of twelve]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If you're subtracting the worst performances every pitcher is going to look better.

Of course this is true. But one of the things to look at is how much worse the worst performances are and how many of them there are. If very few outings have very bad results it's more reasonable to assume that they are not reliable indicators of the overall performance.

[Nick Nelson]

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

 Kirilloff..... "still having some pain swinging?"   I have seen that elsewhere on TD....where is that coming from??

I was wondering about that too. Seems to be in reference to this, I wouldn't really treat it as a sign of much that he has soreness following a surgery like that:

 

[Nick Nelson]

50 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He's likely to get playing time. Twins like to rotate players and ensure that guys aren't getting beat up through attrition. Gordon does have positional flexibility (even if his best position is probably LF right now, he's passable at 2b & 3b and it wouldn't surprise me to see him give Miranda a break against the occasional righty) and enough speed/baserunning ability to be a late inning sub as well. Injuries will happen (hopefully fewer serious/lengthy ones) and they'll need Gordon to play.

I'm curious to see if the Twins are open to Gordon occasionally playing 3B. It'd be very helpful to have a LH option there in addition to Miranda/Farmer, and would be a clear path to more tread for Gordon.

Thing is, I don't know that we really have any evidence to suggest he's "passable" there. He has made zero career starts in the majors and two in the minors. To my eye, he doesn't really have the skill set to be an asset or even an average defender there. 
 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, USNMCPO said:

I have not heard anything about on-going pain for AK. The reports I read said he is swinging free and expecting a normal spring training.

In an interview with The Athletic he said there is still some pain and that he's "working thru it" for now.

[MN_ExPat]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

how about this if, if AK can't go as expected, can Gallo play 1B and Gordon or Larnach play OF, or will they play Miranda at 1st and put Farmer at 3rd? Concerned about AK with the reports that he is still having some pain swinging.

I may have missed some... but what I read was soreness, not pain.  Yes he was worried, but then I can't say I blame the guy.  However he isn't the first athlete, and definitely won't be the last, to doubt or not fully trust that an injury has healed enough.

[KirbyDome89]

41 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Of course this is true. But one of the things to look at is how much worse the worst performances are and how many of them there are. If very few outings have very bad results it's more reasonable to assume that they are not reliable indicators of the overall performance.

I'm not arguing that the SD version of Joe Ryan is who he is, but if we're going to start cherry picking entire games, or explaining away his worst starts as "well the Dodgers beat up on everybody," from a sample that's 27 games, are we not skewing perception as much, if not more, than if we put too much stock in a bad outing in SD? 

FWIW, his sample size vs. playoff teams last year was nearly identical to his KC/Detroit SS. Excluding the SD game, he finished with a 5 ERA and a slightly higher FIP against those teams, and that includes some pretty good games against Cleveland. 

Personally I think Ryan is a 4-5 guy unless he can consistently get guys out with something other than his FB. That's still a huge W for the Twins. 

[Reptevia]

I think you spelled Gallo, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach and the pitching staff wrong. There really isn’t a player on the team that doesn’t need to prove something this year. 

[Reptevia]

“I agree that Polanco is probably the key position player this season (assuming Buxton is playing 50% of the games in CF and 30% games as DH).  This team offensively could very well go the way of Polanco’s season.”

This team as is will have a lot of difficulty scoring runs. Remember, Buxton played 1/3 of CF games last year!  Your projections are unrealistic and more than pie in the sky. 

[sun]

IIRC Ryan was pulled from not one but two potential no hitters. The 2nd one Moran couldn't finish it up in the 9th, and Ryan had a long face afterward. Those 2 outings weren't typical of a back of the rotation starter. All pitchers will have some misfires. I admire his precise & extremely repetitive delivery. Ryan sort of reminds me of the Yankees Ron Guidry. He was a winner. And I hope that Ryan gets another crack at a no hitter someday as a Twin.

[Shaitan]

Wow, what is wrong with the KC and DET scouts?

[Shaitan]

Gordon doesn't have the power for regular ABs in the corner OF slots. He either needs to get better an IF defense or develop HR power (unlikely). That said, it's hard to improve IF defense if you never play there.

If he hits like last year, ABs won't be a problem. If he hits like 2021, they will be.

[jmlease1]

6 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I'm curious to see if the Twins are open to Gordon occasionally playing 3B. It'd be very helpful to have a LH option there in addition to Miranda/Farmer, and would be a clear path to more tread for Gordon.

Thing is, I don't know that we really have any evidence to suggest he's "passable" there. He has made zero career starts in the majors and two in the minors. To my eye, he doesn't really have the skill set to be an asset or even an average defender there. 
 

It seems worth trying occasionally?

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

This pretty much goes for everyone on the team

"everyone on the team" haven't tag teamed to play in a combined 234 games over the last two years.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Karbo said:

how about this if, if AK can't go as expected, can Gallo play 1B and Gordon or Larnach play OF, or will they play Miranda at 1st and put Farmer at 3rd? Concerned about AK with the reports that he is still having some pain swinging.

Pretty sure they'll deploy ALL of the above strategies to some degree or another--even if AK can go.  This regime doesn't seem terribly concerned with continuity in the lineup.

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm not arguing that the SD version of Joe Ryan is who he is, but if we're going to start cherry picking entire games, or explaining away his worst starts as "well the Dodgers beat up on everybody," from a sample that's 27 games, are we not skewing perception as much, if not more, than if we put too much stock in a bad outing in SD? 

FWIW, his sample size vs. playoff teams last year was nearly identical to his KC/Detroit SS. Excluding the SD game, he finished with a 5 ERA and a slightly higher FIP against those teams, and that includes some pretty good games against Cleveland. 

Personally I think Ryan is a 4-5 guy unless he can consistently get guys out with something other than his FB. That's still a huge W for the Twins. 

Probably realistic. Although, I see his upside more #3-ish. The struggles against better offensive teams are a real thing (see Berrios) and those that are consistently good against those teams are legit #1-2 guys. Like you say, I don’t think Ryan necessarily needs to get THERE to warrant the value or validate the trade.

But, I like his demeanor on the mound…seems to have the ‘good’ arrogance genes that help, IMO, break through at this level.

[JD-TWINS]

 

11 hours ago, MGX said:

Good article...

My top 5 

1. Management understanding that Nick Gordon is an essential piece for this team to be successful. In other words he needs to get 500+ PA's

2. Correa being Correa

3. As you pointed out Joe Ryan pitching more effectively against better opposing lineups

4. The young group of hitters (Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach & Wallner) staying healthy & producing in whatever role they have.

5. Polanco getting back to his 2021 form.

I had Ryan - CC - Polanco - Gray - Buxton…….I’m pissed I didn’t put Gordon on this list!!

Gordon - gained 25 lb last year and could work out for first time in pro career. Last year was his 2nd in the SHOW & he got 405 AB’s playing wherever they needed him. No previous OF experience & he started 98 games out there. 28 doubles - 41 XBH …..50 RBI in the bottom half of line-up. Going to be WAY stronger this spring.

He has to play against RH pitching!! 80% of the starters are RH.

80 games in LF - 50 games in CF - 575 AB’s & he hits 40 doubles this year!

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Karbo said:

how about this if, if AK can't go as expected, can Gallo play 1B and Gordon or Larnach play OF, or will they play Miranda at 1st and put Farmer at 3rd? Concerned about AK with the reports that he is still having some pain swinging.

IF Kiriloff can’t go the obvious choice is Gallo at 1B………I’m curious to see if they consider Gordon there? He can play ground balls and lets Gallo stay in corner OF spot.

No matter what happens at 1B Farmer has to play 20 - 25 games each at 2B & SS. Rest! He rests Miranda another 25 games at 3B. Also, due to his solid splits v. LH pitching, he’ll start those games at 3B while bumping Miranda to 1B. That’s 100 plus starts for Farmer if the other 3 guys stay healthy.

Larnach is the LH hitting DH…..80 games. 50 games in LF.

I refuse to think they will play Taylor ahead of Gordon in CF for more than a handful of games v. RH pitching. Gordon is solid & Taylor weak v. RH pitching. Taylor will start in CF v. LH pitching…..that’s 30 games or so. Taylor is late inning PH v. lefty relievers - late inning base runner - late inning D replacement ……….. INSURANCE FOR INJURIES.

Buxton, if healthy, plays CF 80 games - DH 50 games.

Gordon in CF for 50 games & LF for 80 games.

Gallo 30 games in LF - 50 games in RF - 30 games at 1B - 10 games at DH.

Kepler 110 games in RF

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Gordon doesn't have the power for regular ABs in the corner OF slots. He either needs to get better an IF defense or develop HR power (unlikely). That said, it's hard to improve IF defense if you never play there.

If he hits like last year, ABs won't be a problem. If he hits like 2021, they will be.

If you take Gordon’s 405 AB’s from ‘22 and normalize them for potential 575 AB’s this year it’s 13 HR - 6 triples - 40 doubles ……. pretty sure the Twins or any team would take that power for one of their corner Outfielders.

First season since getting drafted he was healthy due to intestinal problems. Gained 25 lb last year in 6 months. He’s got good bat speed & exit velocity & he’ll get stronger. The FO can’t be blind to these facts!

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, Karbo said:

In an interview with The Athletic he said there is still some pain and that he's "working thru it" for now.

To add to Nick's previous addition, as well as this one, he's been taking about 50-60 swings per day, as well as general workouts. 

Reports I've read have him dealing with soreness, not pain. I hope that is accurate. ANYONE coming off any kind or surgery will deal with sorness and at least a little pain. You're breaking up scar tissue and just getting your body adjusted again to normal activity.

The issue is when he starts taking 75-100 swings and how he responds. I'm sure the Twins will measure his workouts to make sure he doesn't overdo. But until I hear "pain" instead of soreness, I'm going to assume the surgery was a success and he just needs time to get his wrist "prepared" for normal usage.

[DocBauer]

Someone please help my memory, or correct me if I'm just wrong, but as I recall, I swear part of Alacala's strong 2nd half finish in 2021 was him dusting off his change, tweaking his change, working on a cutter, or something similar, to work against LH hitters.

I'd swear I'm right on this, but can someone confirm or tell me I'm crazy?

[DocBauer]

As far as Gordon goes, the FO has stuck by him since they came on board, even though they had no previous allegiance to him. Do you think such a positive step forward in 2022 is going to suddenly sour them on him?

He has to continue to develop and grow and prove his 2021 and even better 2022 was not an aberration. That's on him. But the lineup and opportunity are always fluid. Kepler may or may not be part of 2023. Gallo may or may not revert to his previous, productive "Texas" days. OR...and I hate to say this...he might end up playing some 1B if AK isn't 100% ready to go from day one. 

This FO likes the Dogers format of having a bunch of talented guys who can play multiple spots. That's a good thing, and I applaud that approach. Gordon should have ample opportunity to play and continue to prove himself. Again, it's up to him to continue to play well, if not actually improve.

[Karbo]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

IF Kiriloff can’t go the obvious choice is Gallo at 1B………I’m curious to see if they consider Gordon there? He can play ground balls and lets Gallo stay in corner OF spot.

No matter what happens at 1B Farmer has to play 20 - 25 games each at 2B & SS. Rest! He rests Miranda another 25 games at 3B. Also, due to his solid splits v. LH pitching, he’ll start those games at 3B while bumping Miranda to 1B. That’s 100 plus starts for Farmer if the other 3 guys stay healthy.

Larnach is the LH hitting DH…..80 games. 50 games in LF.

I refuse to think they will play Taylor ahead of Gordon in CF for more than a handful of games v. RH pitching. Gordon is solid & Taylor weak v. RH pitching. Taylor will start in CF v. LH pitching…..that’s 30 games or so. Taylor is late inning PH v. lefty relievers - late inning base runner - late inning D replacement ……….. INSURANCE FOR INJURIES.

Buxton, if healthy, plays CF 80 games - DH 50 games.

Gordon in CF for 50 games & LF for 80 games.

Gallo 30 games in LF - 50 games in RF - 30 games at 1B - 10 games at DH.

Kepler 110 games in RF

That would be great to see Buxton play that many games!

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Reptevia said:

I think you spelled Gallo, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach and the pitching staff wrong. There really isn’t a player on the team that doesn’t need to prove something this year. 

I'd say Correa's pretty safe..........     The only thing he's gotta prove over the next 6 years is that he's worthy of 4 more years at a discounted rate.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Someone please help my memory, or correct me if I'm just wrong, but as I recall, I swear part of Alacala's strong 2nd half finish in 2021 was him dusting off his change, tweaking his change, working on a cutter, or something similar, to work against LH hitters.

I'd swear I'm right on this, but can someone confirm or tell me I'm crazy?

I had the same recollection Doc but it's been so long I just don't recall what he was doing differently.  Who knows what he has been working on as he prepares to return.  We will have to see what he shows in spring training.  I am very hopeful we see the best version of Alcala.  That would be a big boost.

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Probably realistic. Although, I see his upside more #3-ish. The struggles against better offensive teams are a real thing (see Berrios) and those that are consistently good against those teams are legit #1-2 guys. Like you say, I don’t think Ryan necessarily needs to get THERE to warrant the value or validate the trade.

But, I like his demeanor on the mound…seems to have the ‘good’ arrogance genes that help, IMO, break through at this level.

Yep, I think the opening day start and overall lack of pitching in the organization raised expectations/hopes to a point where people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Ryan was talked about as a potential back end guy or bullpen piece at the time of the trade. Like you said, struggling against better teams is real, and that's ok, but he didn't show anything last year to suggest those results will dramatically change. If he pushes into that true 3ish range you're talking about (maybe this is all semantics) that's great.