5 Twins Players with Something Specific to Prove This Year

[Nick Nelson]

These five players have key questions to answer in the season ahead. I promise none of them have to do with injuries.

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

 

Yes, we all know that health uncertainty is the banner headline for the 2023 Twins. "If they're healthy" is the rallying cry for even the most optimistic fan. 

As pivotal as they are, these situations just aren't very fun to analyze or talk about, because they feel so beyond anyone's control. Much of the team's outlook hinges on whether Tyler Mahle can pitch without shoulder weakness, and Alex Kirilloff can swing without pain.

These things either will happen or they won't, and if they don't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. The human body is fickle.

Today I'm going to look at five critical points of uncertainty for the Twins that have nothing to do with injuries. (Well, almost nothing.) Instead, it's about these players proving they can deliver in areas where the club really needs them if they're to achieve their goals.

1. Can Joe Ryan excel against good teams?

Hidden in Ryan's very good overall numbers last year (13-8, 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts) is the fact that his success was largely buoyed by beating up on horrible AL Central opponents.

In eight starts against the Royals and Tigers, the two teams he faced more than any other, Ryan went 8-0 with a 0.94 ERA. He won every start, allowing just five earned runs on 26 hits (one homer) in 48 innings.

Look: that's an absurd level of dominance against any major-league lineup. Ryan certainly deserves a ton of credit for being absolutely automatic in those match-ups. But the flip side is that against all other opponents, he went 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA. 

The 26-year-old has already established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can take care of business against lesser lineups. But with so many question marks elsewhere in the rotation, the Twins are really leaning on him to be more. 

Showing he can up his game against better offenses than Detroit and KC will be key, both because he'll face less of each in the rebalanced schedule, and because the Twins will (hopefully) need starters they can count on in the postseason.

2. Can Jorge Polanco fill Luis Arraez's OBP void?

There's no question that Arraez's ability to get on base will be deeply missed, and his departure raises questions about how a power-driven lineup will fare without his penchant for creating opportunities. There's reason to hope Polanco can make up for some of what the top of the order just lost.

You might look at Polanco's career .334 OBP and say, eh, nothing special. Even his .346 mark last year was quite ordinary. But here's the thing: he posted it while batting a career-low .235, thanks to DOUBLING his walk rate from 2021. Polanco's 14.4% BB rate last year would've ranked fifth-best in baseball if his at-bats qualified. 

If the newfound patience sticks and Polanco is able to sustain a similar walk rate while his batting average rebounds to somewhere in the range of his .270 career benchmark, you've got the recipe for an Arraez-like OBP, or better.

To wit: if Polanco walked at same rate in 2021 – when he batted .269 with a .323 OBP – as he did in 2022, he would've had 92 walks and a .395 on-base percentage. 

3. Can Nick Gordon make himself essential?

Gordon is coming off a breakthrough season that earned him Most Improved Twin honors and saw him accrue nearly 450 plate appearances. In many cases, a campaign like that for a former first-round draft pick would open the door for a big opportunity, if not a starting role. But the circumstances of the offseason leave him in a spot where he'll be scrapping for playing time from the start, and potentially buried on the depth chart.

He's not their top backup center fielder (that's Michael A. Taylor). He's not their best lefty-swinging backup corner OF or DH option (that's Trevor Larnach). He's not their top backup anywhere in the infield, and in fact, I'd be somewhat surprised if the Twins view him as anything more than an emergency option on the dirt.

Injuries can of course change the equation here, but as things stand, Gordon will have a hard time finding his way off the bench with any regularity. That is, unless he can force the issue. At times last year the former light-hitting shortstop looked like a game-changing offensive force, like in August when he slashed .321/.360/.531 with three steals and 17 RBIs in 26 games. Gordon was electric.

Bring more of that to the table, and Rocco Baldelli will find a way to get Gordon into the lineup as much as he can.

4. Can José Miranda play third base effectively?

The viability of Miranda's bat is not in question after a convincing rookie campaign that saw him handle everything MLB pitchers could throw at him, thanks to high-contact swing that generated power to all fields. 

Now he needs to define his defensive future.

If he's able to hold on as a capable third baseman, at least for a few years, as opposed to switching to 1B/DH duty, it'd be a boon for the team's planning and lineup-building. An early slide down the defensive spectrum diminished Arraez's value in the front office's eyes, but Miranda can still avoid that route.

Thus far, I would say the signs are less than encouraging. His defense at third base checked out pretty poorly last year, by almost any measure or metric, and scouting reports were hardly glowing in the minors.

But plenty of third basemen who looked rough as rookies went on to establish themselves  at the hot corner (calling Corey Koskie), and Miranda's still only 24. His offseason efforts to slim down have also notably resulted in a body that, per Carlos Correa, "looks sexy." We'll see if the defense can follow suit.

5. Can Jorge Alcalá get lefties out?

Coming off a season where he made only two appearances due to an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery, Alcalá is obviously a health question mark. Can his arm hold up, much less get back to pumping the upper-90s heat that led to big results in 2020/21?

The Twins seem to be counting on it, because they have yet to make any significant additions to their bullpen this offseason. Unless that changes, they're banking largely on Alcalá's return to provide depth in the mid-to-late innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán and Jorge López at the back end.

Even assuming he's healthy, Alcalá needs to turn one more corner to be the kind of weapon the Twins need him to be. He needs to overcome his susceptibility against left-handed pitchers, who have pummeled him to the tune of .275/.358/.508 in his MLB career. That .866 OPS is 354 points higher than his mark against righties.

Baldelli will have the ability to strategically deploy Alcalá in favorable match-ups to an extent, but if the righty wants to truly be relied upon as a key late-inning weapon, he'll need to show he can handle the lefty sluggers and pinch-hitters that come his way.

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[dxpavelka]

Can Larnach & Kirilloff stay on the field?

[Karbo]

how about this if, if AK can't go as expected, can Gallo play 1B and Gordon or Larnach play OF, or will they play Miranda at 1st and put Farmer at 3rd? Concerned about AK with the reports that he is still having some pain swinging.

[IndianaTwin]

There’s probably a way to create a Pagan question. 

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco has nothing to prove! It's unfair to single him out & ask him to match Arraez OBP. It's much more fair to ask Kiriloff or Gallo can they match Arraez glove at 1B? The answer would be undeniably yes, And ask Gordon if he could match Arraez in quality innings played? the answer would be undeniably yes. Or if he would match Arraez match Arraez as a scoring threat? the answer would be undeniable yes.

IMO if we ask Gordon to replace Arraez as the lead-off hitter, he'd arise (Arraez, I'm sorry, it's a pun) to the occasion. He'd run the bases well & become a scoring threat and even try to focus on  improving his OBP. But to ask anyone on the roster to match Arraez's OBP is a pretty tall order. Julien would be the one, once he's ready & there's an opening.

Awarding Gordon playing time would be a challenge. He has proven that he should played. He could play at DH or Buxton replacement in CF against RHPs. He'd be our lead off hitter whenever he's playing, & when trades are made, that'll free up more playing time

Others are fair expectations, Nick and these questions should be asked. IMO these  players will arise to the challenge & meet them. Before Baldelli was encouraged to lead off with Arraez, he'd lead off with Garver & Kepler. Maybe he'll go that route again with Farmer & Kepler. 

I think another fair challenge is if Kepler & Gallo can get out of their hitting funk with this new shift ban? I expect Kepler to but Gallo I have my doubts. His righty counter parts Sano & Sanchez couldn't do it. I really hope he does but wishing doesn't make it happen.

[Nashvilletwin]

This article could have been written about essentially every Twin (Mahle, Maeda, both Lopez’s, Pagan, Buxton, Gallo, Kiriloff, Kepler - just to name a few).  “Something to Prove” or “Bounce Back” is essentially the basis of the FO’s entire strategy this season.

But re the five highlighted:

Ryan will be solid against all teams (new favorite Twin).

Polanco will be middling - 0.350s OBP and .250 BA, including while playing the second half of the season on another team,

Gordon’s misuse - sitting him behind Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor - will be one of the biggest mistakes of the year. That guy so earned a bigger role. He must be begging for a trade. It’s hard to imagine we are bagging the development of Gordon, Larnach, Wallner and Martin for those three “past their primes”. Maybe that changes by the deadline.

Miranda will be serviceable at 3B and at the plate - until he moves to his future more permanent position 1B later in the year and begins to rake.

Alcala may be the entire key to pen and will have a super season.

[miracleb]

 Kirilloff..... "still having some pain swinging?"   I have seen that elsewhere on TD....where is that coming from??

[Major League Ready]

In terms of importance, I would start with Ryan pitching well against good opponents.  He obviously has to get over that hurdle to be of value in the post season.  Next for me would be Alcala finding a way to be more effective against LH hitting.  That would make him very valuable.  Then, I would have to go with Miranda at 3B.  If Kirilloff is healthy he is the 1B and that might be more important than the 5 players listed here.  Miranda actually looked better to me at 3B than he did at 1B.  It would be great to see a more fit Miranda play at least average defense at 3B.  

We don't want Polanco to replace the OBP of Arraez.  we need Polanco to play a good 2B and produce an OPS of 826 like he did in 2021 or 846 like he did in 2019.  That would be more valuable than reproducing Arraez OBP with an OPS 60+ points lower that Polanco.   

I would love to see Gordon take it up another notch.  That would make him a valuable asset.  Having him and Martin in super utility roles would be ideal.  They could cover every position except catcher and 1B.  It would also likely mean that Larnach and or Wallner have delivered.

[sun]

Ryan didn't seem to pitch as well for a number of weeks after getting covid.

I think Gordon could be more than an emergency back up at 2B depending on circumstances. Due to the end of the shift, his quickness could provide some extra range there. I'm sure that Rocco will want to put the best batters on the field when starters sit out. Maybe he can coordinate resting more than one infield starter at the same time to maximize the games that starters can play together.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, You have written another outstanding article. Great questions backed by some facts that I was not aware of.  1) Ryan's stats against KC and Detroit vs. "other teams"; 2) Polanco's increased walk rate; 3) the fact that lefty "pitchers' have pummeled Alcala. I only mentioned # 3 because I just wanted you to know that I am the first reader to find your intentionally placed "Hidden Mistake", which you sometimes put in your articles to gage if anyone is really reading your outstanding articles closely.   

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 minutes ago, sun said:

Ryan didn't seem to pitch as well for a number of weeks after getting covid.

 

Interesting point. I remember he just was not as effective after he returned from Covid.  I'll need to check his performances and see what teams he pitched against after Covid and how he did.  Thanks for bringing up that point. 

[Azviking101]

Thank you for mentioning Ryan’s stats against everyone else. I just don’t see any overwhelmingly dangerous pitches and he can’t seem to keep his fastball velocity up. We’ll see 94/95 for an inning or 2 and then it’ll be 89-91 the rest of the game. 
 

I frankly don’t see him taking the next step

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Thank you for mentioning Ryan’s stats against everyone else. I just don’t see any overwhelmingly dangerous pitches and he can’t seem to keep his fastball velocity up. We’ll see 94/95 for an inning or 2 and then it’ll be 89-91 the rest of the game. 
 

I frankly don’t see him taking the next step

Oh please, for the sake of all that is good and decent, be wrong. 

[Trov]

To address Ryan, you do not point out that he still had good games against non KC or Det, but his numbers were really blown up against non KC or Det by a few games.  SD 10 runs in 4.2 innings will really affect that ERA.  Then he had like 3 other games were he did not pitch well, giving up a run per inning over 4 or 5 innings.  However, he still had quailty starts against Cleveland, Boston, Texas(one of the games he lost because Twins got shut out) Baltimore and Giants as well.  The 6 worst starts was SD, Yankees, Dodgers, Houston, Boston, Seattle.  All close to 9.00 ERA or higher with 5 or less innings pitched.  The Yankees and Dodgers beat up everyone, scoring each scoring over 800 runs.  Houston scored 737, 3rd in AL, Boston was 4th scoring 735(you did not mention he 6 innings giving up 1 run in one of the Boston starts), SD and Seattle were middle of road offenses.

Outside of those, he gave up 3 or less runs.  Yes, sometimes in only 4 innings, but he cannot control if Rocco pulls him after 70 plus pitches over 4 innings.  If he goes out has 1 or 2 scoreless innings the numbers look a whole lot better.  Rocco did not trust he would, but not like he got blown up. 

Yes, he beat up on worst offense in league, as he should.  I would be more concerned if he got beat up by them.  You claim he needs to show he can stop better offenses, but he did well against Boston in one game, and Cleveland, SF, Brewers, Texas, who all scored either close to 700 or more than 700 runs last year in the top half of the league.  You suggest he never pitched well against a non bottom feeding offense, but KC even was not bottom, they were bottom half, but he had good games against top half offenses too.  

Every pitcher has some bad games, and if you take away all the good to great games, of course the pitcher will look bad. If he only won against Det or KC and was blown up by every other team, like you suggest, I would agree, but that simply is not true he had really 6 bad games out of 27, I would say 12 good to great games(compared to his others based on ER and innings pitched, he did not allow more than 1 ER in 12 games, not all were against KC and Det.  That leaves 9 okay games giving up 2 to 3 runnings over 4 to 6 innings. 

He was slotted to be our 1 number guy out the gate, but he was still a rookie and did just fine against non bottom feeders.  Was he an Ace no, but even Aces have bad games sometimes, and will feast on bad teams. 

   

[MTV]

1. Can Alex Kirilloff stay healthy or is he the next Byron Buxton?

2. what does a healthy Trevor Larnach look like and what is his ceiling?

3. can they find 2019 Emilio Pagan?

4. Will we get the good, the bad, or the ugly Jorge Lopez?

5. What will Ryan Jeffers look like Offensively?

[wsnydes]

I think Ryan's struggles against good teams is his youth showing.  Good teams will make you work much harder than a lesser lineup.  Also, having not looked up the timing of the outings against better teams, what effect did his covid stint play into those numbers?  

I agree completely with the remainder of the list.  Though, I think Kirilloff and Larnach are pretty important.  Maybe more important that Alcala even.  That might be splitting hairs though.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

If this is how the team views him, and actually uses him, then if I was Gordon I'd be demanding a trade out of here. If actually performing doesn't work then what will?

I feel for the guy.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Nick Gordon, shown the pine in favor of guys like Taylor and Gallo. What the f.....

[MGX]

Good article...

My top 5 

1. Management understanding that Nick Gordon is an essential piece for this team to be successful. In other words he needs to get 500+ PA's

2. Correa being Correa

3. As you pointed out Joe Ryan pitching more effectively against better opposing lineups

4. The young group of hitters (Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach & Wallner) staying healthy & producing in whatever role they have.

5. Polanco getting back to his 2021 form.

[2wins87]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Can Larnach & Kirilloff stay on the field?

This pretty much goes for everyone on the team

[tony&rodney]

This is an interesting post because it highlights areas of concern unrelated to injury. Health will be a huge question for the Twins in 2023 as it is for most teams, especially for pitching staffs.

Ryan has not looked good against teams with experience and/or good hitters. Lay off the high fastball and eventually you get a pitch to hit. Perhaps Ryan improves his offerings and gets better. The stated issues versus teams like Houston are why I wondered if Lewis and Ryan plus a lesser player could return Corbin Burnes, provided Burnes would sign a long term contract (the Twins don't sign pitchers to these deals). Ryan remains very valuable as a #4 pitcher as is, and he can still develop his repertoire to get over the hump versus good hitters/lineups. Ryan can still refine his command and control.

Polanco can be under-rated. If he returns to odd year Jorge, the Twins get an All Star infielder whose experience and performance makes a huge difference in the lineup. Polanco is excellent with risp. He is going to be key this year.

Gordon did just about everything he could to demonstrate that he is ready for regular playing time. Can he improve upon his performance last year? Gordon seems like the LH bat in a classical platoon. Because of the obstacles facing Gordon, he may have to force his way into the lineup. I would think that a team that needs a left handed bat should be very interested in Nick Gordon. His versatility and athleticism should be noticeable, and he has improved with each year of experience.

Miranda receives a lot of love, from Correa (Fellow Puerto Rican) and from Twins fans. If he cannot be an average fielder at third base, Jose may need to be much better at the plate. Royce Lewis will be looking for playing time sometime in July. I didn't think Miranda looked horrible at third, but he was not good at first base. A player with extra base pop who hits for average can improve their play in the field. Miranda should have fielded 500 ground balls per week for at least ten weeks this offseason. It will be interesting to see if he can hold off Lewis (and Lee). Miranda has been given a spot to hold.

Moran is a big question mark for the bullpen. Can he be elevated to high leverage situations despite his tendency to put batters on base via the free pass? I'm hoping that we see a full season of Jovani Moran to fill one of the top four spots in the Twins relief corps. The success of Moran would allow for Alcala to be used in situations that favor him, facing the bottom half of a lineup. It seems like Alcala just needs some time in early or mid innings refining his pitches. 

Spring training should give us a glimpse of how various players prepared over the past several months to improve themselves, both health-wise and in refining skills.  I'm curious about whether Matt Wallner worked on his reads, routes, and flexibility taking fly balls. I'm also wondering if Julien has the ability to bring his year at AA and his dominance of the Arizona Fall League to the plate against major league pitching without losing a step. Both of these guys are beyond their "young" years and capable of dramatic improvement in skills. 

[jjswol]

It seems that a lot of people have Gordon as more valuable than I see him.

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Polanco has nothing to prove! It's unfair to single him out & ask him to match Arraez OBP.

This is true, it's a little weird how easy it seems to be to forget how good he's been when healthy over the past 4 years.  He didn't even lose too much power when they deadened the ball.

I don't know if trust his legs to be healthy this year, but if they are, I'm pretty optimistic he can get more settled in at 2B and put up the plus defense that we've excepted, and also be one of the best hitters on the team.

[Nashvilletwin]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is an interesting post because it highlights areas of concern unrelated to injury. Health will be a huge question for the Twins in 2023 as it is for most teams, especially for pitching staffs.

Ryan has not looked good against teams with experience and/or good hitters. Lay off the high fastball and eventually you get a pitch to hit. Perhaps Ryan improves his offerings and gets better. The stated issues versus teams like Houston are why I wondered if Lewis and Ryan plus a lesser player could return Corbin Burnes, provided Burnes would sign a long term contract (the Twins don't sign pitchers to these deals). Ryan remains very valuable as a #4 pitcher as is, and he can still develop his repertoire to get over the hump versus good hitters/lineups. Ryan can still refine his command and control.

Polanco can be under-rated. If he returns to odd year Jorge, the Twins get an All Star infielder whose experience and performance makes a huge difference in the lineup. Polanco is excellent with risp. He is going to be key this year.

Gordon did just about everything he could to demonstrate that he is ready for regular playing time. Can he improve upon his performance last year? Gordon seems like the LH bat in a classical platoon. Because of the obstacles facing Gordon, he may have to force his way into the lineup. I would think that a team that needs a left handed bat should be very interested in Nick Gordon. His versatility and athleticism should be noticeable, and he has improved with each year of experience.

Miranda receives a lot of love, from Correa (Fellow Puerto Rican) and from Twins fans. If he cannot be an average fielder at third base, Jose may need to be much better at the plate. Royce Lewis will be looking for playing time sometime in July. I didn't think Miranda looked horrible at third, but he was not good at first base. A player with extra base pop who hits for average can improve their play in the field. Miranda should have fielded 500 ground balls per week for at least ten weeks this offseason. It will be interesting to see if he can hold off Lewis (and Lee). Miranda has been given a spot to hold.

Moran is a big question mark for the bullpen. Can he be elevated to high leverage situations despite his tendency to put batters on base via the free pass? I'm hoping that we see a full season of Jovani Moran to fill one of the top four spots in the Twins relief corps. The success of Moran would allow for Alcala to be used in situations that favor him, facing the bottom half of a lineup. It seems like Alcala just needs some time in early or mid innings refining his pitches. 

Spring training should give us a glimpse of how various players prepared over the past several months to improve themselves, both health-wise and in refining skills.  I'm curious about whether Matt Wallner worked on his reads, routes, and flexibility taking fly balls. I'm also wondering if Julien has the ability to bring his year at AA and his dominance of the Arizona Fall League to the plate against major league pitching without losing a step. Both of these guys are beyond their "young" years and capable of dramatic improvement in skills. 

I agree that Polanco is probably the key position player this season (assuming Buxton is playing 50% of the games in CF and 30% games as DH).  This team offensively could very well go the way of Polanco’s season.

You mention Wallner, Julien, Gordon.  Those players (and probably Larnach, Lewis, Lee and Martin as well) will need injuries from other players to get meaningful big league innings. The FO and coaching staff seem intent on giving those important innings to Gallo, Kepler, Martin, Farmer and, even, Polanco - all players unlikely to be Twins in 2024. We shall see what the second half of the season brings.

 

[D.C Twins]

Great list Nick and well thought out

[Doctor Gast]

46 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

This is true, it's a little weird how easy it seems to be to forget how good he's been when healthy over the past 4 years.  He didn't even lose too much power when they deadened the ball.

I don't know if trust his legs to be healthy this year, but if they are, I'm pretty optimistic he can get more settled in at 2B and put up the plus defense that we've excepted, and also be one of the best hitters on the team.

Thanks, 2wins87. I'm not worried about Polanco's legs at all. His ankles are fine as long as you keep him away from SS (NP). Like any player he'll get hurt, this isn't a problem as long as the problem is dealt with & given the needed rest. Last season when he got hurt they kept running him out there until he dropped & was lost for the season. That's not on him.

[USNMCPO]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

how about this if, if AK can't go as expected, can Gallo play 1B and Gordon or Larnach play OF, or will they play Miranda at 1st and put Farmer at 3rd? Concerned about AK with the reports that he is still having some pain swinging.

I have not heard anything about on-going pain for AK. The reports I read said he is swinging free and expecting a normal spring training.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I know the article is 5 Twins players with something to prove but I would add that Nick Paparesta also has something to prove.  Reduce injuries and get injured players back on the field.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If this is how the team views him, and actually uses him, then if I was Gordon I'd be demanding a trade out of here. If actually performing doesn't work then what will?

I feel for the guy.

He's likely to get playing time. Twins like to rotate players and ensure that guys aren't getting beat up through attrition. Gordon does have positional flexibility (even if his best position is probably LF right now, he's passable at 2b & 3b and it wouldn't surprise me to see him give Miranda a break against the occasional righty) and enough speed/baserunning ability to be a late inning sub as well. Injuries will happen (hopefully fewer serious/lengthy ones) and they'll need Gordon to play.

We are not a team that lets guys sit on the bench and do nothing (which is why I'm unthrilled about Pagan being in the bullpen LOL)

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

To address Ryan, you do not point out that he still had good games against non KC or Det, but his numbers were really blown up against non KC or Det by a few games.  SD 10 runs in 4.2 innings will really affect that ERA.  Then he had like 3 other games were he did not pitch well, giving up a run per inning over 4 or 5 innings.  However, he still had quailty starts against Cleveland, Boston, Texas(one of the games he lost because Twins got shut out) Baltimore and Giants as well.  The 6 worst starts was SD, Yankees, Dodgers, Houston, Boston, Seattle.  All close to 9.00 ERA or higher with 5 or less innings pitched.  The Yankees and Dodgers beat up everyone, scoring each scoring over 800 runs.  Houston scored 737, 3rd in AL, Boston was 4th scoring 735(you did not mention he 6 innings giving up 1 run in one of the Boston starts), SD and Seattle were middle of road offenses.

Outside of those, he gave up 3 or less runs.  Yes, sometimes in only 4 innings, but he cannot control if Rocco pulls him after 70 plus pitches over 4 innings.  If he goes out has 1 or 2 scoreless innings the numbers look a whole lot better.  Rocco did not trust he would, but not like he got blown up. 

Yes, he beat up on worst offense in league, as he should.  I would be more concerned if he got beat up by them.  You claim he needs to show he can stop better offenses, but he did well against Boston in one game, and Cleveland, SF, Brewers, Texas, who all scored either close to 700 or more than 700 runs last year in the top half of the league.  You suggest he never pitched well against a non bottom feeding offense, but KC even was not bottom, they were bottom half, but he had good games against top half offenses too.  

Every pitcher has some bad games, and if you take away all the good to great games, of course the pitcher will look bad. If he only won against Det or KC and was blown up by every other team, like you suggest, I would agree, but that simply is not true he had really 6 bad games out of 27, I would say 12 good to great games(compared to his others based on ER and innings pitched, he did not allow more than 1 ER in 12 games, not all were against KC and Det.  That leaves 9 okay games giving up 2 to 3 runnings over 4 to 6 innings. 

He was slotted to be our 1 number guy out the gate, but he was still a rookie and did just fine against non bottom feeders.  Was he an Ace no, but even Aces have bad games sometimes, and will feast on bad teams. 

   

If you're subtracting the worst performances every pitcher is going to look better. If I flipped your logic, and started removing some of his best games against KC and Detroit, because they're two franchises masquerading as Major League teams, I doubt you'd be onboard with the similar approach to truncating the data set. It's no coincidence that 5 of his 6 worst starts came against playoff teams; that's the point being made, he struggled against good teams and feasted on some really bad lineups in his own division. His numbers against playoff teams were abysmal last year. How else to do end up with a mid 3 ERA when you threw 1/3 of your innings at a sub 1 clip?

Being pulled early (before having to go through the order a third time) protected Ryan's numbers more than they hurt them. That shouldn't even be a debate. Talking about how extreme Ryan's splits are isn't taking away his good games.