Give Joey Gallo a Chance

[tony&rodney]

We don't have to worry about giving Joey Gallo a chance. The Twins are paying him $11 million to play and he will be in the lineup most of the time (if healthy) for at least 2 to 3 months. If he cannot hit with anyone on base and is carrying a .160 batting average after 200 at bats, let's hope he is released. I too am hoping for Gallo to have a career year but his bat is often empty when there are runners on base and a weak fly ball or ground ball to advance a runner is often what is needed with less than two outs. Gallo has been at his best with the bases empty (1374 AB) or nobody on base (602 AB). He has done well man on 3rd and less than two outs (112 AB), but has cratered withe bases loaded (only 54 AB) and with RISP and two outs (251 AB). Joey Gallo is a similar gamble on production in some ways (hoping for the best) to pitchers like Bundy and Archer. We should wish Gallo the best, while also hoping that the Twins have an eye on the production.

[sun]

In his Twins podcast interview Gallo said that he prefers to play RF because it allows him to make more throws to 2B & 3B. Since a Kepler trade is still possible, his arm could be more of an asset than Max's. Time will tell about Max, but Gallo only has a short window to prove himself. Or else Rocco will be replacing him with a pinch hitter. The Twins didn't sign him to do the Tango. In other words I think that as the season progresses Gallo's leash will become shorter & shorter. f his hitting hurts the team. BB's are productive but a K with 2 outs and men on base can get old really fast when it's a close game & in the later innings. 

[Fezig]

Gallo, the front office, and majority of the lineup take the 7th Inning stretch line of "for it's 1, 2, 3 strikes your out" to heart.

[Hunter McCall]

25 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I do not think I will be able to explain this so that you will accept my feelings.  I do think BA means something, hits do more than walks.  They lead to movement on the basepaths, advancing the runners, sometimes errors, sometimes bad judgment.  A walk like a strike out is a static event.  Boring.  If you do not accept this perspective I understand - new age analytics has its own perspective and it is not mine. 

I get it! Batting average is still a stat we staple to every player for better or worse. I understand the obvious positives of putting the ball in play. As I stated before, Joey Gallo is going to come with some downsides attached to him. The low batting average and high strike out rate have been consistent throughout his career. However, my main point is, try to at least appreciate the things he does well!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.

[Hunter McCall]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

We don't have to worry about giving Joey Gallo a chance. The Twins are paying him $11 million to play and he will be in the lineup most of the time (if healthy) for at least 2 to 3 months. If he cannot hit with anyone on base and is carrying a .160 batting average after 200 at bats, let's hope he is released. I too am hoping for Gallo to have a career year but his bat is often empty when there are runners on base and a weak fly ball or ground ball to advance a runner is often what is needed with less than two outs. Gallo has been at his best with the bases empty (1374 AB) or nobody on base (602 AB). He has done well man on 3rd and less than two outs (112 AB), but has cratered withe bases loaded (only 54 AB) and with RISP and two outs (251 AB). Joey Gallo is a similar gamble on production in some ways (hoping for the best) to pitchers like Bundy and Archer. We should wish Gallo the best, while also hoping that the Twins have an eye on the production.

There's no doubt Gallo will be what he has shown to be in the past. I think the average will get a slight boost with the banning of the shift, but for the most part, he is what he is. I think I would hesitate to compare Gallo to Bundy and Archer. Both Bundy and Archer were well past their prime when the Twins took a shot on them. Gallo isn't. He is coming off one bad season in a volatile environment in New York. He isn't even 30 years old yet. This is why I think it's reasonable to expect a productive season out of Gallo. Again, if he is not good, they have options to replace him.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

Maybe you need to consider changing your book. Look at OPS and WAR instead of BA. Batting average just doesn't tell enough of the story. Joey Gallo is a good player capable of producing for the Twins, but you have to give the guy a chance and understand what he does well.

My point of view, the game’s not played on spreadsheets. Comparing batting average v. OBP………..A base hit is better to move runners than a walk, period……..the defense has to play the ball & the runners are moving. Timing for walk v. a hit is real - bases empty walk is great. I’m not anti-OBP! Same with HR. HR with nobody on base 15 times per year isn’t that exciting when it comes to producing runs & wins……effectiveness is linked to timing.

If a guy has 500 AB’s and hits .275 & his teammate hits .200 in the same 500 AB’s but they have same OBP at .335…….who’s more effective? To me, it’s nuts to think they are comparable. The .275 hitter is getting on 37 more times with a batted ball through the year. Has to be significantly more productive of the two.

If there’s a guy on 3rd & 1 out or a guy on 2nd & 1 out who do you want at the plate?

Walking and calling it effective is agreed to, v. producing an out, but how can it be comparable to a base hit in the same situation?

I guess one could argue that a base hit with nobody on is an empty stat & not being particularly effective? I struggle with the concept that BA isn’t that valid as a contributor to productivity…….if someone’s on base it’s OK to compare Joey Gallo (.199) to Jose Miranda (.261)……..because their OBP may be similar or because Gallo may hit a HR 1 out of 45 times in that situation?

[Sean.h]

I think most folks aren't hating on Gallo per se. It's more so criticizing the FO for signing Gallo, despite his tools (mainly his left-handedness) not being a good fit for the roster as is currently constructed.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

My point of view, the game’s not played on spreadsheets. Comparing batting average v. OBP………..A base hit is better to move runners than a walk, period……..the defense has to play the ball & the runners are moving. Timing for walk v. a hit is real - bases empty walk is great. I’m not anti-OBP! Same with HR. HR with nobody on base 15 times per year isn’t that exciting when it comes to producing runs & wins……effectiveness is linked to timing.

If a guy has 500 AB’s and hits .275 & his teammate hits .200 in the same 500 AB’s but they have same OBP at .335…….who’s more effective? To me, it’s nuts to think they are comparable. The .275 hitter is getting on 37 more times with a batted ball through the year. Has to be significantly more productive of the two.

If there’s a guy on 3rd & 1 out or a guy on 2nd & 1 out who do you want at the plate?

Walking and calling it effective is agreed to, v. producing an out, but how can it be comparable to a base hit in the same situation?

I guess one could argue that a base hit with nobody on is an empty stat & not being particularly effective? I struggle with the concept that BA isn’t that valid as a contributor to productivity…….if someone’s on base it’s OK to compare Joey Gallo (.199) to Jose Miranda (.261)……..because their OBP may be similar or because Gallo may hit a HR 1 out of 45 times in that situation?

Hello, just want to clear a couple things up. I didn't compare BA to OBP. I said OPS was a more reliable statistic because it combines a players OBP with their SLUG. This is a far more accurate way to assess who is helping your team than batting average. There is so much more to the game of baseball than batting average. I understand getting hits is important and obviously helps. The main point of my article was to explain that Joey Gallo has his flaws (low BA, high SO rate), but he also does a lot really good. Just give him a chance is all I am saying.

[mikelink45]

22 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I get it! Batting average is still a stat we staple to every player for better or worse. I understand the obvious positives of putting the ball in play. As I stated before, Joey Gallo is going to come with some downsides attached to him. The low batting average and high strike out rate have been consistent throughout his career. However, my main point is, try to at least appreciate the things he does well!

Right now I cannot - let him prove himself - show value and I will slowly convert, but he has stunk enough that I do not have to have a rosy expectation.  I wish there were some Yankee and Dodger fans who could jump in here. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Right now I cannot - let him prove himself - show value and I will slowly convert, but he has stunk enough that I do not have to have a rosy expectation.  I wish there were some Yankee and Dodger fans who could jump in here. 

Many players have performed poorly in those cities and excelled elsewhere.  New York and Los Angeles are totally different monsters when it comes to baseball atmosphere and pressure

[EGFTShaw]

Now you did it @Hunter McCall 😁

With all players, give them a chance.

I too do not like the sub–Mendoza Line batting average.

I do like the top-notch defense in the outfield.

HRs are nice, but if I have a guy on 3rd that I need to get home sub .200 BA is tough to see come to the plate.

But the other metrics on Gallo are good.

I think our offense will be good this year if we only regress to the norm when it comes to games lost to injuries, so those 32 DRS start to matter.

As Hunter points out, give the guy a chance.  

[Major League Ready]

I am not all that excited about Gallo but he has consistently produced around 3 WAR with the exception of last year.  He had a wRC+ of 122 while batting 199 in 2021 and produced 4 WAR.  The 199 average is not ideal but I will take it over a guy who hits 260 and produces 2 WAR? 

[mikelink45]

25 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Many players have performed poorly in those cities and excelled elsewhere.  New York and Los Angeles are totally different monsters when it comes to baseball atmosphere and pressure

I did not like him in Texas either

[MileHighTwinsFan]

All I know is that when he was at his best, he was one of those guys you didn't want to pitch against late in the game.  If he can approach that level, I think people on the right field plaza better have their heads on a swivel.

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I did not like him in Texas either

If you didn't like him in Texas I don't think you're going to like him in MN. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't, just that you won't. To Hunter's point, he's not going to change. According to the baseball industry Joey Gallo was a well above average player in Texas. But he plays a style of game (with the bat) that's not enjoyable for a lot of fans (me included). I look forward to watching a competent/smart defender and base runner. I don't look forward to the Ks and .200 BA. I think you can survive with 1 of those guys in the order so I'm not all that upset with this Gallo deal.

I like to look at "tools." Gallo has 3.5 in my view. Power. Glove. Arm. And .5 for speed. He's awful at the hitting tool, though. And that's a really bad thing to be bad at when it comes to entertainment. I want a team with as many "tools" as possible, and hopefully the ones each guy is missing aren't the same. You need some balance. But it's also really hard to lose a guy like Arraez who's simply more fun to watch hit because his 1 tool is his hit tool (I'll give him .5 for his glove at 1B). But there's much more to being a baseball player than just the hit tool so my non-emotional side would say Gallo brings more to the team. But I'd much rather watch Arraez in that batter's box. It's all very stressful for my brain and heart.

[sun]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

My point of view, the game’s not played on spreadsheets. Comparing batting average v. OBP………..A base hit is better to move runners than a walk, period……..the defense has to play the ball & the runners are moving. Timing for walk v. a hit is real - bases empty walk is great. I’m not anti-OBP! Same with HR. HR with nobody on base 15 times per year isn’t that exciting when it comes to producing runs & wins……effectiveness is linked to timing.

If a guy has 500 AB’s and hits .275 & his teammate hits .200 in the same 500 AB’s but they have same OBP at .335…….who’s more effective? To me, it’s nuts to think they are comparable. The .275 hitter is getting on 37 more times with a batted ball through the year. Has to be significantly more productive of the two.

If there’s a guy on 3rd & 1 out or a guy on 2nd & 1 out who do you want at the plate?

Walking and calling it effective is agreed to, v. producing an out, but how can it be comparable to a base hit in the same situation?

I guess one could argue that a base hit with nobody on is an empty stat & not being particularly effective? I struggle with the concept that BA isn’t that valid as a contributor to productivity…….if someone’s on base it’s OK to compare Joey Gallo (.199) to Jose Miranda (.261)……..because their OBP may be similar or because Gallo may hit a HR 1 out of 45 times in that situation?

Baseball players have a saying, "A walk is as good as a hit." In no way does a BB hurt the team. That's a fundamental truth of baseball & something that every fan should be able to live with like it or not. I can't imagine holding a batter responsible for taking 4 balls. Chasing pitches out of the zone is how games are lost. A BB results from the pitcher's mistakes & not the batter's mistakes.

[mikelink45]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you didn't like him in Texas I don't think you're going to like him in MN. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't, just that you won't. To Hunter's point, he's not going to change. According to the baseball industry Joey Gallo was a well above average player in Texas. But he plays a style of game (with the bat) that's not enjoyable for a lot of fans (me included). I look forward to watching a competent/smart defender and base runner. I don't look forward to the Ks and .200 BA. I think you can survive with 1 of those guys in the order so I'm not all that upset with this Gallo deal.

I like to look at "tools." Gallo has 3.5 in my view. Power. Glove. Arm. And .5 for speed. He's awful at the hitting tool, though. And that's a really bad thing to be bad at when it comes to entertainment. I want a team with as many "tools" as possible, and hopefully the ones each guy is missing aren't the same. You need some balance. But it's also really hard to lose a guy like Arraez who's simply more fun to watch hit because his 1 tool is his hit tool (I'll give him .5 for his glove at 1B). But there's much more to being a baseball player than just the hit tool so my non-emotional side would say Gallo brings more to the team. But I'd much rather watch Arraez in that batter's box. It's all very stressful for my brain and heart.

I think you get it.  Others may like him, I will not.  Statistics won't do it.  You give a really good analysis.  Thanks.  

[Brady]

I’m fully behind the idea of giving Gallo every opportunity to succeed early in the year. As you’ve emphasized, he will bring a very high K% and a BA that will compete with fan-favorite punchline Miguel Sano – that is well-known. But, Gallo has the added benefit of being an elite defender in the outfield as well as the potential to excel at 1B.

I view Gallo as a more volatile version of Max Kepler. Kepler’s career low wRC+ is 93 (2016) and maxed out at 122 in 2019. Gallo bottomed out at 85 in 2022, but has also achieved 119 in 2017, 122 in 2021, and 144 in 2019. Framing Gallo in this way makes him appear (to me) much more valuable. For the Twins to have a chance at competing with the top teams in the league, they will have to hit on some lottery tickets. If Gallo can reach his potential, then great. If not, the Twins can benefit from his defense until they find a hitter better suited for consistent ABs (Gordon, Larnach, etc.)

[Nashvilletwin]

I get why the FO took the bait in Gallo. Fine, let’s see how he does.

But my expectations are low and I have very little interest in developing an emotional fan connection with him,  In all likelihood he’s going to perform somewhere between so so and meh and either gone by the trade deadline or by next season.

Geez, this team is going to be so frickin’ boring to watch, particularly if Buxton goes down.  Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Taylor, Vasquez, Jeffers, even Polanco - they all are good ballplayers, but it’s all “hope they have bounce back year” and/or just plain meh. CC is a fantastic player to watch, but he’ll never be my fan favorite. Gosh, I hope Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach and Gordon provide some excitement.  Otherwise, I guess I’ll just wait for Lewis, Lee, Julien and Martin…..

 

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, sun said:

Baseball players have a saying, "A walk is as good as a hit." In no way does a BB hurt the team. That's a fundamental rule of baseball & something that every fan should be able to live with like it or not. I can't imagine holding a batter responsible for taking 4 balls. Chasing balls out of the zone is how games are lost.

Chasing balls out of the strike zone are how games are lost, but missing balls and making outs at a 33% clip on balls in the strike zone isn’t a winning formula. My point is specific to Mr. Gallo (even though it wasn’t clear) and the tendency to mask his pathetic (no other words for it at MLB level) .199 career batting average by handfuls of contributors here by citing his career OBP. I completely respect his apparent good eye at the plate and his tendency to make pitchers work! I think working a walk is a respectable way to get on base for anyone!! I just don’t think we should rationalize poor hitting with the view that respectable OBP makes up for not being able to make contact 33% of your AB’s.

Playing in NY & LA being a reason to hit .169 in 2022 is hard to have respect for no matter who makes the statement.

Bottom line is I understand, and am a fan of guys that can walk plus/minus 10% of their plate appearances! I think it’s great that Gallo offsets some of his BA & SO deficiencies by walking regularly. Really! I’ve said repeatedly that his multi position capabilities are a big advantage! He may end up being a savior at 1B if Kirilof can’t play! Look forward to maybe seeing the best outfield D in the league many nights this summer.

I just think he’s a big risk pick up for the $ spent…….seems to neutralize Kepler in right or Gordon’s promise in left……...hope it works out!!!

[tcttejtf]

Comparing Gallo to Sano might not be fair. As was mentioned, Gallo generally has good at bats, which was more than could be said about Sano. I don't have the stats, but I'll bet that Sano had considerably more three pitch at bats ending in a strikeout than Gallo.

[Beast]

I’m a fan of the move.

If you’re going to be scared of any sort of long-term big money commitment to external free agents (like many fans here seem to be), you have to take fliers like this one if you want to compete.

Especially if you’re going to burn your high draft picks with poor evaluations of guys like Sabato, Rooker, Gordon, Cavaco, etc.

You can’t have it both ways.  If it doesn’t work out, nothing is lost.  He’s not blocking anybody.  He’s not going to hold this team back from winning anything.  If the team stinks with him, they would’ve stunk without him.  But. There’s a slim chance he returns to form and helps the team win some games.

He’s also immediately one of the better defenders on the team with position flexibility.

[Beast]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Chasing balls out of the strike zone are how games are lost, but missing balls and making outs at a 33% clip on balls in the strike zone isn’t a winning formula. My point is specific to Mr. Gallo (even though it wasn’t clear) and the tendency to mask his pathetic (no other words for it at MLB level) .199 career batting average by handfuls of contributors here by citing his career OBP. I completely respect his apparent good eye at the plate and his tendency to make pitchers work! I think working a walk is a respectable way to get on base for anyone!! I just don’t think we should rationalize poor hitting with the view that respectable OBP makes up for not being able to make contact 33% of your AB’s.

Playing in NY & LA being a reason to hit .169 in 2022 is hard to have respect for no matter who makes the statement.

Bottom line is I understand, and am a fan of guys that can walk plus/minus 10% of their plate appearances! I think it’s great that Gallo offsets some of his BA & SO deficiencies by walking regularly. Really! I’ve said repeatedly that his multi position capabilities are a big advantage! He may end up being a savior at 1B if Kirilof can’t play! Look forward to maybe seeing the best outfield D in the league many nights this summer.

I just think he’s a big risk pick up for the $ spent…….seems to neutralize Kepler in right or Gordon’s promise in left……...hope it works out!!!

First, $11 million is pocket change in the MLB world.  There is no risk in terms of money here whatsoever.

Second, you’re focusing on batting average and walks.  He’s got a career OPS around .800 and OPS+ around 110.  Gordon and Kepler’s career numbers aren’t going to hit those marks.  Gallo is so far beyond Gordon in terms of outfield defense, there’s no comparison.  He’s also better than Kepler.  If you want to compare careers, he’s a superior player to both of them even with his historically bad year last year.

I’ll never understand how so many people here say they don’t want Gallo on the team, while simultaneously clamoring to hand the keys over to Nick Gordon who has almost no extended track record of success at any level of professional baseball.  There’s a reason why the FO isn’t handing Gordon the keys to anything other than a bench role.  He’s not that good.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

I don't believe a lineup full of Joey Gallo at the plate is a winning team while 9 Luis Arrarez clones at the plate is a winning team.   

I think that's a big part of the argument for many of us that aren't super upset with him being here and Arraez not. It's not just about being at the plate. I'd take a lineup of Gallo's over a lineup of Arraez's 10 out of 10 times because Gallo is faster, a significantly better fielder, has a significantly better arm, and hits for significantly better power. Arraez is significantly better at his "hit" tool. I'll take the guy with the edge in 4 of the 5 "core tools" of baseball over the guy with the 1 tool that is just more entertaining to watch in the batter's box. A team of Gallo clones would beat a team of Arraez clones. Probably by a pretty good margin, too.

[TNTwinsFan]

 

[darin617]

He may change his approach in 2023.  There is nothing saying he can't change and be a better hitter. He has to know this may be his last chance to play and make adjustments.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

First, $11 million is pocket change in the MLB world.  There is no risk in terms of money here whatsoever.

Second, you’re focusing on batting average and walks.  He’s got a career OPS around .800 and OPS+ around 110.  Gordon and Kepler’s career numbers aren’t going to hit those marks.  Gallo is so far beyond Gordon in terms of outfield defense, there’s no comparison.  He’s also better than Kepler.  If you want to compare careers, he’s a superior player to both of them even with his historically bad year last year.

I’ll never understand how so many people here say they don’t want Gallo on the team, while simultaneously clamoring to hand the keys over to Nick Gordon who has almost no extended track record of success at any level of professional baseball.  There’s a reason why the FO isn’t handing Gordon the keys to anything other than a bench role.  He’s not that good.

Gordon has played parts of 2 years. From January to June last year he gained 25 lbs and played wherever during his first healthy year in the majors. Last year in approximately 100 starts in OF & a dozen in the IF, he had 405 AB’s with 9HR & 28 doubles. He didn’t get enough at bats to strike out 200 plus times - a feat Gallo has accomplished twice. 190 plus K’s in another year. Gallo’s .986 OPS in one season, that is the outlier and it props up 2-3 other bad years.

103 hits & 206 strikeouts do not a good year make, in my opinion.

Am a sixty year old sports fan - well aware of $11 million value to a team that spends $145 million/year. Not worried about the Pohlad’s going broke. His salary, at $11 million per year, is the 3rd highest behind Correa & Buxton on the everyday player roster. It’s not a big number for Cohen & the Mets but it certainly is for the TWINS. If we could, I’d release Gallo tomorrow & spend it on Relief Pitching talent.

I don’t hate the guy - for the 3rd time, I like his defensive skills & position flexibility!! Certainly, I respect his power & if he hits his career average with 25 plus HR and plays D as well as we all expect in 125-130 games all is good. I do know that at some point this year you’ll be pulling your hair out when he strikes out for the 3rd time in a game - only normal reaction!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I did not like him in Texas either

Well if you don't like an OPS+ of 116, which is what he did in Texas, I can't help you.

[JD-TWINS]

2022 review:

           Gallo        Gordon 

AB’s.    350.         405

BB’s.      56.           19

BA.        .160.         .272

Hits.      56.            110

HR.         19.              9

3B.          2.               4

2B.          8.              28

Tot Base 125          173

OBP.      .280.          .316

RBI.        47.               50

I get this isn’t fair on all levels to Gallo looking at just 1 year. I think saying Nick Gordon “isn’t any good” must be ill informed or emotional or just unfair as well. However, this is closest to a full year Gordon has & it was his first healthy year after years of dealing with an intestinal issue.

Even with a Gold Glove in OF, Gallo doesn’t show up as a better player at age 29 vs. Gordon at 25. Better value at $11 million vs. $.70 million???

Many counterpoints in this string as to why we should give Gallo the benefit of the doubt - OK, granted - how about giving Nick Gordon the benefit of the doubt?