Twins Daily 2023 Prospect Rankings (Part 2: Prospects 21-30)

[Dman]

  On 2/2/2023 at 2:09 AM, DocBauer said:

The next prospect list! Of course I have to comment! 

30] BYRON CHOURIO: He's so brand new to the organization I know ZERO about him except what I've read  the past couple of weeks. Young, talented, projectile, but so far away I just don't know you rank him. So why not 30? And with a first name like that, he's got to be good, right? (And I'm not talking Buxton, high 5'er if you get my tongue in cheek reference, lol).

29] AARON SABATO: I get 1st round status and what he did in college. I get the power. I get having a good eye and the ability to draw walks. But when you hit this poorly at A and AA, it tells me your eye is going to betray you as you climb forward without a major adjustment. Better pitchers await at AAA and especially the ML level. Right now, I don't see him actually "hitting" and I wouldn't have him in the top 30 until I see real signs of improvement with the bat.

28] KALA'I ROSARIO: He's got some nice tools to work with and is only 20yr old. The FSL has always had the reputation as being a hard league to hit in. In previous days, if you could hit there, the transition to AA should be pretty smooth. NOW, it's a transition to A+ if you can hit there. It's almost unfair that Ft Myers is your 1st or 2nd year??? But then again, if you can hit there, should be a relatively smooth transition on promotion. Logic says the 20yo Rosario should begin at Ft Myers again. But I can see a mid year promotion to CR and decent results when it happens. 

27] YUNIOR SEVERINO: Last year, before the season stated, we did a sort of "pick to click" at different levels. He was one of my choices and I'm going to pat my own back on that one, lol. He's young enough, and produced quite well at both levels last season that I would rank him at least a few spots higher. His defensive home and role is yet to be established, but he's got good talent. I think he's a safe bet to be at St Paul about mid season. 

26 & 24] BRYAN ACUNA & DANNY De ANDRE: I have them grouped together as they are only a year apart, play the same position. And there's a good chance they will both begin 2023 in the FCL. Both seem to have the skills to stick at SS at this point. Acuna has family bloodlines that can't be ignored, and had a solid debut in the DSL. De Andre didn't have as good of a season with the bat, but he was also state side for the first time. Regardless of what spot you want to rank them, they were top international signings with projection and are so close that I group them together. Both a long way away but so similar, why not have them both in the bottom third but with the ability to really grow. 

25] BRENT HEADRICK: I have a soft spot for LHP, primarily because good ones are few and far between, and the Twins haven't had a lot of good ones for a while. Headrick only threw 3.2 innings after being drafted in 2019, and then missed all of 2020. So college pitcher or not, 2021 was really his first true taste of professional baseball. I think that's important to look at, as it is for other 2019 draftees. He was good in 2021 and even better in 2022, as the OP shows. I just don't know enough about his cureent velocity at this point to know if his numbers are based on control and deception, or is his FB a legitimate, solid option to go along with his other pitches to remain in the rotation. If he's a legitimate 92-93+ with control and can keep his other offerings solid, then he's a potential rotation piece. And I hope that is the case. You can't deny his numbers at this point. (Reminiscent of Ober a couple years ago). At worst I see him as a high quality middle bullpen arm.

23] COLE SANDS: And here is where I might get some negative feedback. His milb numbers have been pretty damn good up until 2022. I had actually forgotten how good his 2021 season at AA was. Coming in to 2022, I saw him as a St Paul rotation fixture with a chance to help the Twins at some point. We'll, things didn't quite work out that way. He wasn't great at AAA, and wasn't exactly great with the Twins. But if you actually watched his games with the Twins, what you saw was a crappy inning, or half crappy inning, along with a really good looking "other" inning or half inning. What I saw was a decent FB that needs a little more "hop" or control, and some breaking pitches that were just NASTY and left a few batters embarrassed. For a rookie basically skipping most of AAA, I saw what I expected, someone not yet ready. But you could SEE there was an arm there with stuff. I NEVER want to give up on a possible rotation arm too early. And I suspect the Twins will want to have him in the St Paul rotation to make damn sure he isn't a possible SP option. But I have a hunch he could end up being a really good BP piece with a decent FB, and a pair of breaking pitches that could play really well.

22] BLAYNE ENLOW: What else is there to say? He was OK in early work as an overslot HS signee who flashed briefly before TJ to begin 2021. He was mediocre last year in 2022. Not bad, but mediocre results overall. But I'm not sure what people expect. He was one of the top HS arms in the country when the Twins offered him enough $ to skip college. So he was OK, flashed, and then was injured. Protected, DFA, he's still in the system. I wouldn't have grabbed him in the rule 5, but the Twins thought enough of him and his potential to try to keep him. They succeeded. NOW, with a full season of "getting back to business and figuring myself out again", the still 23yo SHOULD be ready to take a step forward. If he does, he's back on the 40 man and has a future. If not, he might be gone. I never like dismissing any prospect after an injury ruined season. Not right, not fair. But 2023 is his prove it season.

21] JAYLEN NOWLIN: I can not tell a lie. This is my favorite on this list. I follow the draft and the entire milb system very closely, but I had forgotten about him as he was a 19th round pick in 2021. Not sure why, but he pitched 1/3 of an inning. Late signing??? But I DO RECALL Seth talking about him last offseason as someone to watch after instruction league. So really, 2022 was his FIRST milb season. And GOOD CALL for Seth to be watching and plugged-in to this kid. Control is obviously an issue, though that is certain for every prospect. But more to the point, is there potential for a 3rd offering? Control or not, he needs some kind of change, cutter, splitter, etc, to remain in the rotation. I never buy in to height and weight on the milb site as they always seem  behind. But if he's gained a few pounds/muscles at his age to get beyond the reported 180lbs, he might be able to maintain that reported 97mph velocity and be a legitimate SP with a 3rd pitch.. REGARDLESS, the Twins might have drafted themselves a hell of a powerful LHRP who could debut in a year or two. 

A nice group of 10 that I like. Potential. Done with Sabato until he shows me something more. Really surprised he's in the top 30. A few "wait and see" kids that ranking doesn't matter. Four pitchers that could contribute or make a big rise this season.

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Nice write up Doc!

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Two things:

Miller---agreed on what some have said about him.  He's one year removed from playing high school baseball in Wisconsin (which due to weather usually amounts to about 20 games).  He was the primary shortstop in his first full year of pro ball and by all reports is a very good defender while still being over 2 years younger than the average player at that level.  Way too early to say he's a bust.   This will be a big year for him.  

Enlow---I think he has a big year.  Speaking from experience, that first year of pitching post-TJ surgery is rough.  You have to get over the mental hurdles that the arm is healthy while trying to get the feel back of all of your pitches.  Hopefully, he now knows he's healthy and can let it loose.  I've always thought his curveball was perhaps the best in the organization .    Fingers crossed.  

[Seth Stohs]

  On 2/1/2023 at 5:01 PM, Tibs said:

Question on starting prospects at Ft Myers vs Cedar Rapids. It wasn't specifically mentioned here but often times it is when talking about A level prospects. Do the Twins actually care about starting a prospect at Ft Myers instead of Cedar Rapids because of the weather early in the season? It seems like if you're going to play for the Twins in the AL Central that shouldn't be a consideration.

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Generally, the answer to this is No. If they're eventually going to play at Target Field in March and April, it's not bad for them to play in Cedar Rapids in April and learn ways to play in the cold. 

That said, if a player is injured and it's a hamstring or some arm issue, it probably doesn't make a lot of sense to have them spend April in Cedar Rapids. That would be the case. 

[Seth Stohs]

  On 2/1/2023 at 7:31 PM, twinstalker said:

Sabato was a very Cleveland-like pick.  Thanks, Falvey! 

Glad to see Noah Miller wasn't on the list and is instead probably around #40 on your list if you had gone down that far.  He's been overrated a ton, so happy to see we're not doing that this time by giving him #25 or something.

Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30.  That would be embarrassing.

It's stated that Yunior Severino will be one year younger than his competition this year at AA.  Maybe so, but more importantly, he's older than any real prospect would be.  That doesn't preclude him from making the majors, but we shouldn't sugarcoat where he's at.  Hopefully something has clicked, but I doubt he'll impact anything in MLB.  I like high upside guys in the 21-30 slots, and his ceiling is pretty low right now.

Like Acuna (at 2B probably), De Andrede (loved his swing before Twins even signed him), Headrick, and even Cole Sands as potential help for the Twins eventually.  Chourio may be too big a lottery ticket for me to rank as high as 30, but I really don't know that I know any of the names that should be below him, except I guess Noah Miller and Aaron Sabato.

Guess which Twins minor leaguer I don't understand people's infatuation with? :-)

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Uffdah! 

First, not sure you'll like one of the next couple of rankings then... 

Second - I'm not sure if I ever mentioned this in the first two articles, but the rankings are based on the Top 30 rankings of 10 of the Twins Daily minor league writers or video content providers. So there will be some variance. We all have our prospects that we are probably too high on or those that we maybe are too low on. I can say that the Top 15 in our rankings (and 17 of the top 18) appeared on all 10 Top 30s. This range from 21-25 appeared on at least 7 of 10 rankings. From 26-30...  generally the average was that they were on about 5-6 of the Top 30s. So this is a pretty volatile range.  

In an attempt at transparency, here is how I ranked these guys: Nowlin (16), Enlow (24), Sands (out of top 30), DeAndrade (27), Headrick (21), Acuna (26), Severino (28), Rosario (23), Sabato (out of top 30), Chourio (25). 

Also, guys from Honorable Mention category that I had in my Top 30: DaShawn Keirsey (29), Ben Ross (30). 

Honorable Mention guys to appear on at least 3 Top 30s: Alejandro Hidalgo (5), Brayan Medina (4), Sean Mooney (3), Cody Laweryson (3), Michael Helman (3),