Twins Daily 2023 Prospect Rankings (Part 2: Prospects 21-30)

[Seth Stohs]

Today we jump into the Twins Daily Top 30 prospects with our panel's selection of prospects 21 through 30. There are some very intriguing prospects in this group. 

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Blayne Enlow), Steve Buhr (Danny De Andrade, Jaylen Nowlin)

For the first time, Twins Daily is now sharing our choices for the Top 30 Twins prospects. In reality, it's just one more article for you to read as we are including prospects 21-30 today. It is really an interesting mix of prospects in this range, which isn't surprising. There are several prospects who are very young in their careers. These are players with lots of tools and potential, but a long, long way to go before even approaching the big leagues. There are a couple of pitchers who had exciting 2022 seasons that catapulted themselves to this level, but they were previously lesser known so some weren't willing to push them any higher. As you would also expect, there are some minor leagues who were once Top 20, and even Top 10, prospects and whether it be injury or performance, they have dropped down the rankings. They still have the talent and at least one took that will need to carry them to an opportunity. 

Twins prospects ranking between 21-30 in our series highlights a dynamic group of players, some brimming with upside and others with higher-perceived floors. Let's break them down. 

30. OF Byron Chourio 
Age: 17
2022 (DSL Marlins): 51 games, .344/.429/.410 (.838), 9-2B, 1-HR, 12.4% K, 11.5% BB

Just one year ago, the Marlins signed a 16-year-old Chourio from Merida, Venezuela, for $200,000. He stands 6-2 and weighs about 175 pounds. He had a very impressive professional debut in 2022 with the Marlins’ DSL team. He hit for average, got on base, showed good bat-to-ball skills, and showed doubles power. He also stole 19 bases in 26 attempts. He played 20 games in center field, 19 games in right field, and three games in left field. He has a strong arm. The Twins acquired him as a flyer in the Arraez/Lopez trade recently. Jose Salas is the top prospect, but Chourio is equally intriguing. As I like to say, he was impressive in the DSL, but that is six promotions from the big leagues. Chourio is certainly filled with athleticism and tools that should excite Twins fans. 

29. 1B Aaron Sabato 
Age: 23
2022 (A+/AA): 103 games, .215/.336/.438 (.774), 17 2B, 22 HR, 4/5 SB, 32% K, 13% BB

The Twins were excited to select Sabato with the 27th overall pick out of North Carolina where he put up numbers very similar to those of Spencer Torkelson. He really struggled in his pro debut in 2021. He hit just .189 in 85 games in Ft. Myers but came on strong after a late-season promotion to Cedar Rapids where he added eight homers in 22 games. That’s where he began the 2022 season. In 80 games, he hit .226 with 13 doubles and 17 homers. He moved up to Wichita for 23 games late in the season and hit .179 with four doubles and five homers before his season ended with a fastball to his wrist. To this point, he has not hit for average. However, he does walk a lot. He has immense power, so when he does make quality contact, he has the ability to hit the ball a long way. The problem is that he has had trouble making contact, especially on good fastballs. He has become a decent defensive first baseman. He should start 2023 at Wichita and will continue to get opportunities, including another spring training invitation. 

28. OF Kala’i Rosario 
Age: 20
2022 (A): 109 games, .239/.320/.408 (.727), 21 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 32.5% K, 8.1% BB

In the five-round 2020 draft, Rosario was the team’s fifth-round pick out of high school in Waiakea, Hawaii. He was one of the most powerful prep bats in that draft. He debuted with 51 games in the FCL in 2021 and hit .277 with 10 doubles, four triples, and five home runs. As a 19-year-old in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, his overall numbers may not look exciting, but he was productive and provided some extra base power. However, with that power comes a lot of strikeouts, something that he will need to continue working on as he moves up the organizational ladder. Rosario played both corner outfield positions with about two-thirds of that time in right field. He has good speed and plays average defense. He’s got an average arm for right field. He’s very young for the level, so he could repeat in the FSL in 2023, though it would be great if he can spend some time in Cedar Rapids as well. 

27. INF Yunior Severino 
Age: 23
2022 (A+/AA): 83 games, .278/.370/.536 (.907), 17 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 25.9% K, 11.1% BB

Twice a top international signing, Severino has slowly worked his way up the Twins system. He began 2022 where he ended the 2021 season, in Cedar Rapids. In 46 games, he hit .283/.398/.572 (.970) in 46 games and hit nine doubles and 11 homers. He missed significant time with an injury but when he returned he was soon promoted to Double-A Wichita where he played 37 games. In that time, he hit .273/.338/.497 (.834) with eight doubles and eight homers. He does strike out more than you could like, but he also has a strong on-base percentage thanks to a lot of walks. At Cedar Rapids, he primarily played second base. Once he moved up to Wichita (and Christian Encarnacion-Strand was traded), Severino spent most of his time at third base. While he lacks plus-range, he does make most of the plays. He should start the 2023 season with the Wind Surge where at 23, he’ll be about a year younger than the average player. 

26. SS Bryan Acuna 
Age: 17
2022 (DSL Twins): 43 games, .310/.409/.393 (.803), 12 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 21.1% K, 11.7% BB

You can’t help but start with the Acuna genetics. Ronald Acuna Sr. played in the New York Mets organization from 1999 through 2004. He then spent one season each with the Blue Jays and Brewers organizations. In 2005, Bryan was born in Manchester, New Hampshire, the Double-A home of the Blue Jays. Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. was the NL Rookie of the Year as a 20-year-old in 2018 and has been an All-Star in three of the past four years. 20-year-old Double-A shortstop Luisangel Acuna was just added to the Rangers 40-man roster. 

Bryan Acuna signed with the Twins last January from Venezuela for $950,000 and made his pro debut in 2022 in the DSL. His overall numbers look solid, including an OPS over .800. That is more impressive when you consider that in his first 11 games, he went 2-for-30 with 13 strikeouts in 37 plate appearances (35%). That also means that over his final 32 games, he hit .368/.455/.465 (.919) with 11 of his 12 doubles, and he struck out just 17% of the time. While maybe not to the same level as his All-Star brother, Bryan Acuna does have a lot of tools. He played in 42 games at shortstop and had 13 errors. He’s got work to do defensively. He had no homers, but his 12 doubles show that the power could come too. He should come to the States in 2023 and play in the FCL.  

25. LHP Brent Headrick 
Age: 25
2022 (A+/AA): 23 starts (25 G), 108 1/3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 31% K, 6.1% BB

Headrick was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2019 out of Illinois State University where he pitched for former Twins catcher Steve Holm. Like most minor leaguers, he did not pitch in 2020. He made 15 appearances for the Mighty Mussels in 2021 and posted a 3.82 ERA. In 61 1/3 innings, he walked 33 batters, but he struck out 86 batters. In 2022, he made 15 starts with Cedar Rapids and went 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. In 65 1/3 innings, he had just 13 walks to go with 77 strikeouts. He moved up to Double-A, and after a rough first outing (7 runs on 10 hits in 2 1/3 innings), he posted a 3.54 ERA and had 57 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. Following the season, he was a pretty easy addition to the Twins 40-man roster.

24. INF Danny De Andrade 
Age: 18
2022 (FCL Twins): 48 games, .242/.333/.371, 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 4/6 SB, 13.5% K, 7.5% BB

De Andrade signed with the Twins out of Venezuela in January 2021 for a $2.2 million bonus. He spent that summer in the DSL where he hit .264/.340/.348 (.688) with 13 doubles and a triple in 50 games. He came to the States in 2022 and played most every day. He made 32 starts at shortstop and 13 more at third base. He is a solid defender with good range, soft hands and a strong arm. Offensively, he’s a work-in-progress. He is an aggressive hitter with a strong swing and good bat-to-ball skills. There is potential for some power. He could spend the 2023 with the Mighty Mussels, which is likely to present a major challenge for him offensively, so don’t be surprised if he repeats the level as he will be very young. 

23. RHP Cole Sands 
Age: 24
2022 (AAA): 19 games (13 GS), 61 2/3 IP, 5.55 ERA, 25.4% K%, 8.5% BB%
2022 (MIN): 11 games (3 GS), 30 2/3 IP, 5.87 ERA, 19.3% K%, 9.0% BB% 

Sands represented Team USA events in high school. He was drafted but chose to attend Florida State University. Three years later, he was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2018. That next season, he pitched at three levels, ending the year with one Double-A start. He didn’t pitch in 2020, and in 2021, he posted a 2.46 ERA at Double-A Wichita. He had 96 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings. Moving up to Triple-A in 2022, he maintained his strikeout rate and actually reduced his walk rate. However, as you can see above, he gave up a lot of runs. It was an inconsistent year for Sands. He was promoted and optioned several times throughout the season, and also spent a couple of stints on the injured list. Is he a starter or reliever? There are a lot of similarities in terms of stuff between Sands and Tyler Duffey. Sands sits in the low-90s with his fastball but can touch 95. He also has a couple of very nice, albeit inconsistent,  breaking balls. As we saw with Duffey, that can be very valuable. He would not be the first player to struggle in his big-league debut, learn from it, and have some level of success. With the Twins pitching depth, will he get that opportunity? 

22. RHP Blayne Enlow 
Age: 23
2022 (AA): 24 games (10 starts), 57 1/3 IP, 4.40 ERA, 24.8% K, 11.6% BB

Another Team USA alum, Enlow was the Twins third-round pick in 2017 out of high school in Louisiana when they met his signing bonus request to keep him from LSU. It was a slow-go for Enlow early in his career. Like many, Enlow did not pitch in 2020. He returned to Cedar Rapids (now a High-A affiliate) in 2021, but just three starts into the season, he hurt his elbow and had Tommy John surgery in June. Enlow worked hard through his rehab, and in November 2021, he was added to the 40-man roster. He returned to the mound in May 2022, 11 months after surgery, and made one rehab appearance for Ft. Myers before heading up to Double-A Wichita. He made 10 starts and 14 relief appearances. He went 1-3 and had three saves. He was clearly working to get back his form. He walked 30 batters in 57 1/3 innings, well over his ‘normal’ walk rate. That is a number he can reduce quite a bit. He also struck out 64 batters which showed that the stuff was still there. Recently, the front office took the risk of placing him on waivers, but he cleared and was outrighted to the minors. While not necessarily great, it might be exactly what he and the Twins need. It might take some of the pressure off of him in 2023 and he can just work on things. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a solid breaking ball and an improving change up, Enlow has potential. Again, will that be as a starter or as a reliever? We shall see. (As you can see in the video below, right before his elbow injury, Enlow was dealing, with all of his pitches.)

21. LHP Jaylen Nowlin 
Age: 22
2022 (A/A+): 22 games (14 starts), 71 IP, 3.80 ERA, 36.0% K%, 11.6% BB%

Yet another late-round steal by the Twins scouting department, it appears. Nowlin was the Twins 19th round pick out of Chipola College. He attended Westlake High School in Atlanta with A’s prospect Lawrence Butler. In the summers, he played with Braves outfielder Michael Harris. He pitched in just one FCL game in 2021, but he made his mark at Fall Instructional League when the southpaw was touching 97 mph with a fastball and showing a solid slider as well. He carried that into the 2022 season. He began at Ft. Myers where he went 4-4 with a 3.65 ERA. In 56 ⅔ innings, he walked 29, but he struck out 89 batters. He moved up to the Kernels late in the season and made three starts. He was 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA. In 14 1/3 innings, he walked seven but struck out 22 batters. Overall, that is 11 strikeouts in 71 innings, a rate of 14.1 K/9. Clearly he will need to improve his control and command, but the Twins can be patient with him and should be because he has immense talent, he just needs to keep improving. 

Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. I will try to get to as any of them as I can. 

For more Twins Daily content on these ten Twins prospects, click on the link with their name here: Jaylen Nowlin, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Danny De Andrade, Brent Headrick, Bryan Acuna, Yunior Severino, Kala'i Rosario, Aaron Sabato, Byron Chourio. 

Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20 - Coming Soon!
Prospects 11-15

View full article

[jmlease1]

Ooof, Sabato. Not sure I would have put him in the top 30. Think there are a few guys on the outside looking in that have more upside, more tools, and more hope. The power is really impressive, and it's great that he takes walks, but his inability to make contact in A-ball and AA speaks poorly of his future. It's going to be harder and harder as he advances to collect those walks, and pasting mistakes just isn't enough to make you a major-league hitter. the lack of any real defensive upside hurts him too. I'm very very down on him.

Sands probably needs to transition to relief, IMHO. He's clearly behind Varland and Woods Richardson (not to mention Ober) in the AAA starter ranks, and even with his struggles Balazovic might still be past him. I'd say Winder is ahead of him too, which doesn't leave him a lot of opportunity to move up as a starter. But adding a tick to his fastball and with that slider? He could be a weapon in the bullpen and it's a transition I'd like to see him make.

I'd like to see Rosario in Cedar Rapids (and out of the FSL) to see what his hit tool looks like in high A. I think he's an interesting prospect if he can bring the Ks down.

Severino did a great job on promotion to AA; it'll be interesting to see how he progresses this year, especially if he stays healthy. For this far down the list, I like him quite a bit as a guy who could advance up. You can never have too many hitters coming through the minors, and his K rate is fine as long as he keeps that kind of a triple slash IMHO.

[EGFTShaw]

Do Twins Daily Caretakes get this list all at once?

Asking for a friend...😉

[Dman]

A little surprised Chourio made the cut at 30.  DSL numbers are hard to quantify as the competition is variable there.  Still from what I have read at Fangraphs and a few other areas he could be a five tool player as he has the size\build to hit for power.  Would be nice if he ends up the real deal.

Given the low league OPS at the FSL Rosario didn't do too bad there.  I agree that he should repeat the level.  I am still excited by the power profile and hopefully those contact skills improve as we need more right handed power bats in the system.

I don't know why but I have always been a big believer in Severino's Switch hitting bat.  He has been a very up and down player and injured a fair but I think this is the year he makes that leap to consistency.  Not sure what position he holds down but I still think the bat could be special.  His best role might DH if can control the strike outs.

I didn't think Acuna would make the top 30.  For his age and noted his start to the season he had a solid debut but being one of the younger players at the DSL level I thought the Twins might have him repeat the level.  The FCL has humbled many DSL players their first year and some never even make it to A ball from there.  He has the pedigree and as noted was hot after the initial cold streak so he might be better than the overall numbers indicated.  Would love to see him in the FCL and they might as well challenge him early.

Was very impressed with what Headrick did last year.  I still don't know if he is starter material but if he keeps that WHIP and ERA down at AA and AAA it sure would be nice to have a viable Left handed Starter at the MLB level.  Here's hoping he moves up this list into the top ten after this years performance.

De Andrade's bat hasn't impressed me but with only 13.5 K rate he is making contact.  Hopefully he figures out how to square up more balls or be more patient waiting for quality strikes.  I am not as bullish on De Andrade at this time.  A mini breakout would change that for me but I think he should repeat the FCL as suggested in the article.  A ball seems to be a really tough challenge he doesn't look ready to me.

Sands and Enlow are enigma's.  They have proven they have the stuff but they both fallen off in the results department. Just gonna have to wait and see what 2023 brings to figure out what they are for real.  Same goes for Balazovich.

Pretty hyped on Nowlin but then I always do go a little gaga over K rate.  I had him pegged as a reliever but if he can be a starter that would be quite the find in round 19.  Needs to find more control but he has the stuff to get guys out.

A nice list of far away guys and guys ready to bust the door down.  Here's hoping they all make it.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Ooof, Sabato. Not sure I would have put him in the top 30. Think there are a few guys on the outside looking in that have more upside, more tools, and more hope. The power is really impressive, and it's great that he takes walks, but his inability to make contact in A-ball and AA speaks poorly of his future. It's going to be harder and harder as he advances to collect those walks, and pasting mistakes just isn't enough to make you a major-league hitter. the lack of any real defensive upside hurts him too. I'm very very down on him.

Sands probably needs to transition to relief, IMHO. He's clearly behind Varland and Woods Richardson (not to mention Ober) in the AAA starter ranks, and even with his struggles Balazovic might still be past him. I'd say Winder is ahead of him too, which doesn't leave him a lot of opportunity to move up as a starter. But adding a tick to his fastball and with that slider? He could be a weapon in the bullpen and it's a transition I'd like to see him make.

I'd like to see Rosario in Cedar Rapids (and out of the FSL) to see what his hit tool looks like in high A. I think he's an interesting prospect if he can bring the Ks down.

Severino did a great job on promotion to AA; it'll be interesting to see how he progresses this year, especially if he stays healthy. For this far down the list, I like him quite a bit as a guy who could advance up. You can never have too many hitters coming through the minors, and his K rate is fine as long as he keeps that kind of a triple slash IMHO.

I wasn't excited about Sabato as a pick because I don't like 2 tool players in the 1st round, but he absolutely slaughtered college baseball and it's crazy to see him completely incapable of hitting in the low minors. I'd bet some batted ball data, and things like that, had the Twins outsmarting themselves on that pick. Really disappointed to see how he's progressed.

I'd put Sands in the pen as well. It's getting difficult for the Twins on the starter prospect front, though. With Ober's inability to stay healthy, Winder's shoulder concerns, Canterino's Rice problem, Sands and Henriquez both looking like better reliever options than starter options, Enlow not finding his footing yet, and Balazovic falling apart last year that grouping really took a hit. It could be really good for the pen if Duran, Canterino, Jax, Ober, Winder, Sands, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, etc. all find a foothold there, but that really puts a lot on Ryan, Varland, SWR, Prielipp, and Raya becoming the rotation in the next couple years. Or we just keep on the "trade for 2 years of a starter" train, but that's less than ideal I think.

[gman]

The FCL league team could be worth tracking this year. Plenty of hitters its looks like, with a few more further up the prospect lists I think. Now if they could find some pitching. AAA is looking like it could be a really tough team this year. Hopefully they finish in first and provide plenty of depth for the Twins when needed.

[Tibs]

Very excited for the potential of Chourio and Acuna. I'm a little surprised to see Severino this low with the production he put up last year. I'm also interested to see what De Andrade can do on a full season team.

Sands should move to the bullpen immediately. He could make an impact there this season.

Question on starting prospects at Ft Myers vs Cedar Rapids. It wasn't specifically mentioned here but often times it is when talking about A level prospects. Do the Twins actually care about starting a prospect at Ft Myers instead of Cedar Rapids because of the weather early in the season? It seems like if you're going to play for the Twins in the AL Central that shouldn't be a consideration.

[Mike Sixel]

Sands really should be a relief pitcher. I have no idea how Enlow is rated higher than Headrik. No idea. I have no idea how I feel about anyone else.

[Nashvilletwin]

Decent lottery tickets: Chourio, Acuna, De Andrade, Nowlin

Likely everyday starter or rotation piece: None

Possible utlity player or relief pitcher: Headrick, Sands, Severino

 

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Ooof, Sabato. Not sure I would have put him in the top 30. Think there are a few guys on the outside looking in that have more upside, more tools, and more hope. The power is really impressive, and it's great that he takes walks, but his inability to make contact in A-ball and AA speaks poorly of his future. It's going to be harder and harder as he advances to collect those walks, and pasting mistakes just isn't enough to make you a major-league hitter. the lack of any real defensive upside hurts him too. I'm very very down on him.

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wasn't excited about Sabato as a pick because I don't like 2 tool players in the 1st round, but he absolutely slaughtered college baseball and it's crazy to see him completely incapable of hitting in the low minors. I'd bet some batted ball data, and things like that, had the Twins outsmarting themselves on that pick. Really disappointed to see how he's progressed.

He's not in my top 30 either, but after his brutal start in A ball last year, his overall production has been ok, and for some stretches even looks good.  Not good enough for a 1B/DH only, but 30 HR in 544 plate appearances since his promotion to A+ is more or less what they expected.  The strikeouts are an issue, but that's not really unexpected either.  The other thing that stands out is that his BABIP has been very low, consistently under .300, so if he doesn't hit it out of the park he doesn't get many hits.  That's basically the difference in production between him and a guy like Wallner who also strikes out but has consistently maintained BABIPs over .330, often much higher.

My first thought is that his swing is too geared toward fly balls, and he has been a little more FB heavy and less GB heavy than Wallner over their respective minor league careers.  But he's also just hit a lot fewer line drives, which could be a result from a FB heavy swing, but could also just be an inability to make quality contact consistently.

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sands really should be a relief pitcher. I have no idea how Enlow is rated higher than Headrik. No idea. I have no idea how I feel about anyone else.

I don't know that it means all that much to have Enlow at 25 and Headrick at 22? Flipping them probably doesn't say much about their ability to succeed and advance. Enlow's younger at the same level. Headrick's healthier. As prospects they're sort of on a similar tier of "some good things here, but questions remain", I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

I also was not a fan of the Sabato pick. That's just not my profile for a top pick. I want a pitcher or four or five tool player in round one. Just my bias. I don't want more Rookers in round one, and yes, I know he wasn't round one. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, jmlease1 said:

I don't know that it means all that much to have Enlow at 25 and Headrick at 22? Flipping them probably doesn't say much about their ability to succeed and advance. Enlow's younger at the same level. Headrick's healthier. As prospects they're sort of on a similar tier of "some good things here, but questions remain", I guess.

Sure. The difference is meaningless....I agree. But was Enlow good before he was hurt? Do we think Headrik goes unselected if not on the forty man, or DFAd? I think not. 

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Seth, like you said, a very interesting group of new comers with a lot of potential & others that are trending down. 

Sands is definitely MLB ready RP. I think Brent Headrik can stick at SP. It's a big transition from DSL to FSL, a lot to do with culture shock for some of these young Latins. Acuna may have an easier time of it because of family support.

I'm looking forward to the next group.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Likely everyday starter or rotation piece: None

That's why this is spots 21-30. Anyone who would be a likely everyday starter would rank higher.

[roger]

Seeing Severino has twice signed contracts of $2M+, was surprising he wasn't selected in last year's Rule 5.  Don't recall hearing all that much about his results last summer, but looking at the end results his numbers are encouraging.  Makes me even more surprised someone didn't take a flyer on him in the draft.

I know Acuna was in the DSL last summer, but should he rise quickly and make the Twins in three years he would do so as a 20 year old...just like his brother.  Remember checking the box scores those first few weeks that the DSL was playing and it was painful.  But then a light bulb went off and he tore the cover off the ball for the rest of the season.  Also recall that there are many years when the Twins don't have any DSL hitter with an average over .300.  Last year they had a bunch.  Don't know what that means?

[4twinsJA]

Baseball America had an article a few years ago about minor leagues and how many players make it to MLB. The average team's minor league system had 33 players that would make an appearance in the MLBs. Only 14 on average would go on to have at least 3 years in MLB. So, yes many of these prospects are not going to make a major impact at the MLB level. I still love reading about them, and seeing the ranking and projections. Hope them the best and that they can contribute to the Twins at some point. Like Seth has stated, some of these players at lower end of rankings or honorable mention are just an adjustment or two away from breaking out.

My top 3 from these 10 are: Nowlin- great K rate, Enlow- I look for him to regain his stuff this year, and Severino- watched some of his games last year, if he can stay healthy could really impress.

[bird]

I'm not certain about this, But one source said that Byron Chourio is not a sibling of Jackson Chourio and Jaison Chourio. Unfortunately. But perhaps he's related? A cousin?

Jackson Chourio is a Guardian prospect of note. Recently one prospect guy said he was mindful of Ronald Acuna, Jr.

Wouldn't it be fun if OUR Acuna and OUR Chourio were mindful of Ronald Acuna, Jr. or Jackson Chourio? Make it happen, Seth. Do a re-write.

[twinstalker]

Sabato was a very Cleveland-like pick.  Thanks, Falvey! 

Glad to see Noah Miller wasn't on the list and is instead probably around #40 on your list if you had gone down that far.  He's been overrated a ton, so happy to see we're not doing that this time by giving him #25 or something.

Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30.  That would be embarrassing.

It's stated that Yunior Severino will be one year younger than his competition this year at AA.  Maybe so, but more importantly, he's older than any real prospect would be.  That doesn't preclude him from making the majors, but we shouldn't sugarcoat where he's at.  Hopefully something has clicked, but I doubt he'll impact anything in MLB.  I like high upside guys in the 21-30 slots, and his ceiling is pretty low right now.

Like Acuna (at 2B probably), De Andrede (loved his swing before Twins even signed him), Headrick, and even Cole Sands as potential help for the Twins eventually.  Chourio may be too big a lottery ticket for me to rank as high as 30, but I really don't know that I know any of the names that should be below him, except I guess Noah Miller and Aaron Sabato.

Guess which Twins minor leaguer I don't understand people's infatuation with? :-)

[mikelink45]

This is the disappointment and unknown list.  We have a group of players who were rated much higher in the past and seem to be slipping into that long term minor league role like the Sabato pick (I remember that most TD comments were negative on this pick when it was made).  Sands and Enlow are slipping and do not seem like future assets. 

With the assets we traded there are some on this list that would be in the last article - close but no cigar.

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Glad to see Noah Miller wasn't on the list and is instead probably around #40 on your list if you had gone down that far.  He's been overrated a ton, so happy to see we're not doing that this time by giving him #25 or something.

Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30.  That would be embarrassing.

[snip]

Guess which Twins minor leaguer I don't understand people's infatuation with? :-)

Prepare to be disappointed?

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30.  That would be embarrassing.

I would trade Sabato for a guy like that.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Outstanding article Seth. Your reporting on the Twins' prospects is very detailed and interesting. I enjoy the fact that you weave some personal information into many of your evaluations. Your efforts are appreciated.

[GKuehl]

The back end of our system feels deeper than it has for a handful of years. It feels like there's quite a bit of potential in this group, which is great to see from 21-30. 

[bird]

3 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Sabato was a very Cleveland-like pick.  Thanks, Falvey! 

Glad to see Noah Miller wasn't on the list and is instead probably around #40 on your list if you had gone down that far.  He's been overrated a ton, so happy to see we're not doing that this time by giving him #25 or something.

Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30.  That would be embarrassing.

It's stated that Yunior Severino will be one year younger than his competition this year at AA.  Maybe so, but more importantly, he's older than any real prospect would be.  That doesn't preclude him from making the majors, but we shouldn't sugarcoat where he's at.  Hopefully something has clicked, but I doubt he'll impact anything in MLB.  I like high upside guys in the 21-30 slots, and his ceiling is pretty low right now.

Like Acuna (at 2B probably), De Andrede (loved his swing before Twins even signed him), Headrick, and even Cole Sands as potential help for the Twins eventually.  Chourio may be too big a lottery ticket for me to rank as high as 30, but I really don't know that I know any of the names that should be below him, except I guess Noah Miller and Aaron Sabato.

Guess which Twins minor leaguer I don't understand people's infatuation with? :-)

Just a guess: Noah Miller?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, GKuehl said:

The back end of our system feels deeper than it has for a handful of years. It feels like there's quite a bit of potential in this group, which is great to see from 21-30. 

I agree about the deepness of the backend of our position players showing potential, but I don't see much  nationally recognized potential in our pitching prospects, front end or back end.

[Dman]

4 hours ago, twinstalker said:

 

Glad to see Noah Miller wasn't on the list and is instead probably around #40 on your list if you had gone down that far.  He's been overrated a ton, so happy to see we're not doing that this time by giving him #25 or something.

Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30.  That would be embarrassing.

 

I wasn't particularly happy with the Noah Miller pick myself but it is a bit early to label him as just a utility infielder or a bust. Right now if you go to MLB.Com you will see he is rated 17th and I don't think they are too embarrassed about it. Fangraphs has him ranked 4th in 2022 they don't have 2023 out yet so they have to be crazy embarrassed about what grade they gave Miller.

I don't know if you got to see Miller in Spring training last year but his defense looked essentially MLB ready to me. He looked poised for 19 years old, gobbled up grounders and set his feet well for good solid throws.  I don't think defense will be an issue for him.

His bat was problematic in A ball last year with a .211 average quality contact was lacking. Slugging of .279 anemic.  The .627 OPS far from ideal.  Positives on Offense were his walk rate was excellent and having a good eye at the plate usually leads to better pitches to hit.  His K rate at 23% was not a huge issue either so he can make contact unfortunately it was weak contact.  His .348 OBP is really good for the league but with little to no power and lots of easy outs he didn't have a quality year on offense last year.

Here's the rub though.  A ball is generally where all the recently drafted college kids start out and they have had two years of college ball to help them adjust to that level.  They are bigger and stronger and have more experience at higher levels of competition than Miller played against especially in a cold weather state.  The odds of him hanging with those players was slim to begin with.  He will only be 20 next year with a full year of pro ball behind him. I think we can expect better things from him next year.  He should be stronger and there should be fewer surprises for him next year.  He doesn't have contact issues and has a good eye at the plate.  There is still reason to be bullish on his future.

Yep I know Rodriguez killed that league at 19 last year and he has a bright future but that doesn't mean Miller can't come around and figure things out yet.  It was his first year of pro ball and he was up against more experienced competition.  Let's give him another year or two and see how much his offense improves before worrying about ranking him too high or too low.

FWIW he has dropped in the rankings from around top 10 to lower teens so there is some concern among evaluators. 

[DocBauer]

The next prospect list! Of course I have to comment! 

30] BYRON CHOURIO: He's so brand new to the organization I know ZERO about him except what I've read  the past couple of weeks. Young, talented, projectile, but so far away I just don't know you rank him. So why not 30? And with a first name like that, he's got to be good, right? (And I'm not talking Buxton, high 5'er if you get my tongue in cheek reference, lol).

29] AARON SABATO: I get 1st round status and what he did in college. I get the power. I get having a good eye and the ability to draw walks. But when you hit this poorly at A and AA, it tells me your eye is going to betray you as you climb forward without a major adjustment. Better pitchers await at AAA and especially the ML level. Right now, I don't see him actually "hitting" and I wouldn't have him in the top 30 until I see real signs of improvement with the bat.

28] KALA'I ROSARIO: He's got some nice tools to work with and is only 20yr old. The FSL has always had the reputation as being a hard league to hit in. In previous days, if you could hit there, the transition to AA should be pretty smooth. NOW, it's a transition to A+ if you can hit there. It's almost unfair that Ft Myers is your 1st or 2nd year??? But then again, if you can hit there, should be a relatively smooth transition on promotion. Logic says the 20yo Rosario should begin at Ft Myers again. But I can see a mid year promotion to CR and decent results when it happens. 

27] YUNIOR SEVERINO: Last year, before the season stated, we did a sort of "pick to click" at different levels. He was one of my choices and I'm going to pat my own back on that one, lol. He's young enough, and produced quite well at both levels last season that I would rank him at least a few spots higher. His defensive home and role is yet to be established, but he's got good talent. I think he's a safe bet to be at St Paul about mid season. 

26 & 24] BRYAN ACUNA & DANNY De ANDRE: I have them grouped together as they are only a year apart, play the same position. And there's a good chance they will both begin 2023 in the FCL. Both seem to have the skills to stick at SS at this point. Acuna has family bloodlines that can't be ignored, and had a solid debut in the DSL. De Andre didn't have as good of a season with the bat, but he was also state side for the first time. Regardless of what spot you want to rank them, they were top international signings with projection and are so close that I group them together. Both a long way away but so similar, why not have them both in the bottom third but with the ability to really grow. 

25] BRENT HEADRICK: I have a soft spot for LHP, primarily because good ones are few and far between, and the Twins haven't had a lot of good ones for a while. Headrick only threw 3.2 innings after being drafted in 2019, and then missed all of 2020. So college pitcher or not, 2021 was really his first true taste of professional baseball. I think that's important to look at, as it is for other 2019 draftees. He was good in 2021 and even better in 2022, as the OP shows. I just don't know enough about his cureent velocity at this point to know if his numbers are based on control and deception, or is his FB a legitimate, solid option to go along with his other pitches to remain in the rotation. If he's a legitimate 92-93+ with control and can keep his other offerings solid, then he's a potential rotation piece. And I hope that is the case. You can't deny his numbers at this point. (Reminiscent of Ober a couple years ago). At worst I see him as a high quality middle bullpen arm.

23] COLE SANDS: And here is where I might get some negative feedback. His milb numbers have been pretty damn good up until 2022. I had actually forgotten how good his 2021 season at AA was. Coming in to 2022, I saw him as a St Paul rotation fixture with a chance to help the Twins at some point. We'll, things didn't quite work out that way. He wasn't great at AAA, and wasn't exactly great with the Twins. But if you actually watched his games with the Twins, what you saw was a crappy inning, or half crappy inning, along with a really good looking "other" inning or half inning. What I saw was a decent FB that needs a little more "hop" or control, and some breaking pitches that were just NASTY and left a few batters embarrassed. For a rookie basically skipping most of AAA, I saw what I expected, someone not yet ready. But you could SEE there was an arm there with stuff. I NEVER want to give up on a possible rotation arm too early. And I suspect the Twins will want to have him in the St Paul rotation to make damn sure he isn't a possible SP option. But I have a hunch he could end up being a really good BP piece with a decent FB, and a pair of breaking pitches that could play really well.

22] BLAYNE ENLOW: What else is there to say? He was OK in early work as an overslot HS signee who flashed briefly before TJ to begin 2021. He was mediocre last year in 2022. Not bad, but mediocre results overall. But I'm not sure what people expect. He was one of the top HS arms in the country when the Twins offered him enough $ to skip college. So he was OK, flashed, and then was injured. Protected, DFA, he's still in the system. I wouldn't have grabbed him in the rule 5, but the Twins thought enough of him and his potential to try to keep him. They succeeded. NOW, with a full season of "getting back to business and figuring myself out again", the still 23yo SHOULD be ready to take a step forward. If he does, he's back on the 40 man and has a future. If not, he might be gone. I never like dismissing any prospect after an injury ruined season. Not right, not fair. But 2023 is his prove it season.

21] JAYLEN NOWLIN: I can not tell a lie. This is my favorite on this list. I follow the draft and the entire milb system very closely, but I had forgotten about him as he was a 19th round pick in 2021. Not sure why, but he pitched 1/3 of an inning. Late signing??? But I DO RECALL Seth talking about him last offseason as someone to watch after instruction league. So really, 2022 was his FIRST milb season. And GOOD CALL for Seth to be watching and plugged-in to this kid. Control is obviously an issue, though that is certain for every prospect. But more to the point, is there potential for a 3rd offering? Control or not, he needs some kind of change, cutter, splitter, etc, to remain in the rotation. I never buy in to height and weight on the milb site as they always seem  behind. But if he's gained a few pounds/muscles at his age to get beyond the reported 180lbs, he might be able to maintain that reported 97mph velocity and be a legitimate SP with a 3rd pitch.. REGARDLESS, the Twins might have drafted themselves a hell of a powerful LHRP who could debut in a year or two. 

A nice group of 10 that I like. Potential. Done with Sabato until he shows me something more. Really surprised he's in the top 30. A few "wait and see" kids that ranking doesn't matter. Four pitchers that could contribute or make a big rise this season.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I wasn't particularly happy with the Noah Miller pick myself but it is a bit early to label him as just a utility infielder or a bust. Right now if you go to MLB.Com you will see he is rated 17th and I don't think they are too embarrassed about it. Fangraphs has him ranked 4th in 2022 they don't have 2023 out yet so they have to be crazy embarrassed about what grade they gave Miller.

I don't know if you got to see Miller in Spring training last year but his defense looked essentially MLB ready to me. He looked poised for 19 years old, gobbled up grounders and set his feet well for good solid throws.  I don't think defense will be an issue for him.

His bat was problematic in A ball last year with a .211 average quality contact was lacking. Slugging of .279 anemic.  The .627 OPS far from ideal.  Positives on Offense were his walk rate was excellent and having a good eye at the plate usually leads to better pitches to hit.  His K rate at 23% was not a huge issue either so he can make contact unfortunately it was weak contact.  His .348 OBP is really good for the league but with little to no power and lots of easy outs he didn't have a quality year on offense last year.

Here's the rub though.  A ball is generally where all the recently drafted college kids start out and they have had two years of college ball to help them adjust to that level.  They are bigger and stronger and have more experience at higher levels of competition than Miller played against especially in a cold weather state.  The odds of him hanging with those players was slim to begin with.  He will only be 20 next year with a full year of pro ball behind him. I think we can expect better things from him next year.  He should be stronger and there should be fewer surprises for him next year.  He doesn't have contact issues and has a good eye at the plate.  There is still reason to be bullish on his future.

Yep I know Rodriguez killed that league at 19 last year and he has a bright future but that doesn't mean Miller can't come around and figure things out yet.  It was his first year of pro ball and he was up against more experienced competition.  Let's give him another year or two and see how much his offense improves before worrying about ranking him too high or too low.

FWIW he has dropped in the rankings from around top 10 to lower teens so there is some concern among evaluators. 

I think you nailed it!

I was surprised when the Twins had him play a couple of innings in ST last year. I saw those games and he was fluid. I think the defense is there, and going to be there. 

But I just can't ignore upper Midwest teenager going to professional baseball for his first year. Just so much travel ball and area code ball, etc. Who are the best prospects? Who could be great, but is behind the curve...no pun intended...due to weather and camps and opportunities as a 17-18yo?

The Twins drafted Miller, IMO, knowing full well he was a project behind a few other possible choices. They were more than happy to expect an extra year of development vs someone in a warm weather climate, for example, because they felt they got the better player in the long term. Think redshirting a top prospect. 

Miller still has to prove it. But I think the Twins are easily giving him an extra year to show what he can do right now.

[2wins87]

20 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

21] JAYLEN NOWLIN: I can not tell a lie. This is my favorite on this list. I follow the draft and the entire milb system very closely, but I had forgotten about him as he was a 19th round pick in 2021. Not sure why, but he pitched 1/3 of an inning. Late signing??? But I DO RECALL Seth talking about him last offseason as someone to watch after instruction league. So really, 2022 was his FIRST milb season. And GOOD CALL for Seth to be watching and plugged-in to this kid. Control is obviously an issue, though that is certain for every prospect. But more to the point, is there potential for a 3rd offering? Control or not, he needs some kind of change, cutter, splitter, etc, to remain in the rotation. I never buy in to height and weight on the milb site as they always seem  behind. But if he's gained a few pounds/muscles at his age to get beyond the reported 180lbs, he might be able to maintain that reported 97mph velocity and be a legitimate SP with a 3rd pitch.. REGARDLESS, the Twins might have drafted themselves a hell of a powerful LHRP who could debut in a year or two. 

He definitely has a change.  You can watch the latest prospect highlight video from Tom Froemming in the videos tab, which has a few highlights from a straightaway-center cam which is nice for really seeing the pitch shape.  Looks to be in the mid 80s with a bit of late fade, and fooled a few low-A hitters at least