Offseason Status Update: All in a Month's Work

[Nick Nelson]

A big month of January has redefined the Twins' offseason, generating a sense of excitement that was palpable at TwinsFest and the Winter Meltdown. 

As spring training fast approaches, let's get up to speed on the action and chart what moves (if any) might still be left on the table.

Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Just after the New Year, we were lamenting the failed pursuit of Carlos Correa and puzzling over Michael Wacha rumors amidst what felt like a very unfulfilling offseason for the Twins. Less than a month later, we can safely call this the splashiest winter in franchise history.

The highlight of January was the stunning and record-shattering Correa signing. But in the weeks since, there's been more significant activity to round out the roster. The front office followed up its biggest move with perhaps its most controversial.

Twins Trade Arraez to Acquire López from Marlins

It's extremely rare for a team to trade away the reigning batting champion – hasn't happened since 1978 – but the Twins did just that (again) when they agreed to send Luis Arraez to Miami in exchange for starting pitcher Pablo López and two prospects. 

Arraez was coming off a career year that saw him make the All-Star team in addition to winning the AL batting title and taking home a Silver Slugger award. He was the only Twins player to receive MVP votes. Needless to say, his value was at a high point, which made him appealing to the bat-needy Marlins.

Undeniably a tough price to pay, but that's what it takes to get controllable, young, high-end pitching, and there's a good argument to be made that the Twins were wise to sell high on Arraez. 

López adds crucial veteran depth to a rotation besieged by question marks, significantly raising both the unit's floor and ceiling. He doesn't quite clear the Sonny Gray Threshold but he reaches it, and that makes him a worthy addition to the Twins rotation mix. 

Crucially, the 26-year-old right-hander is under control for an additional year, in 2024, which gives the Twins some much-needed ongoing pitching stability with Gray, along with Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, due for free agency next offseason.

Of course, López's two years of team control equates to one fewer than Arraez, so the pressure is on for the hurler to deliver big returns in order to keep this deal from looming as an unforgivable misstep in the eyes of many fans. The Twins were able to offset their risk a bit by acquiring a pair of teenaged prospects, Jose Salas and Byron Chourio, with considerable upside.

Michael A. Becomes Plan B in Center Field

The Twins can and will hope for the best with Byron Buxton this year, but they can't plan for it. And they know that. It's what compelled them to swing yet another trade shortly after completing the Marlins deal, when they acquired outfielder Michael A. Taylor from the Royals in exchange for a pair of unexceptional pitching prospects, lefty Evan Sisk and righty Steven Cruz. 

It's a modest but meaningful price to pay for a modest but meaningful addition to the Twins roster. While hardly a star, Taylor is an elite defensive outfielder and has been a regular for Kansas City over the past two seasons, posting 3.4 fWAR over 266 games. 

For reference, Arraez was worth 4.8 fWAR over 265 games in the same span, albeit in the exact opposite fashion: all offensive value, no defense.

In Taylor's case, fielding prowess is the selling point and it's an appealing one. He won a Gold Glove in 2021 and has consistently rated out brilliantly by defensive metrics. His Statcast sliders from last year pretty much tell the whole story: elite range, reactions, and arm that enable him to cover all three outfield positions extremely well. 

With Taylor around, the Twins have a veteran starting center fielder lined up right behind Buxton -- a sizable upgrade from a year ago when Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino made do in a pinch. Rocco Baldelli can feel much more comfortable writing in Buck as DH frequently knowing that there will be no defensive downgrade in center from doing so. 

Taylor's righty bat lines up nicely for spelling the lefty-swinging corner outfielders as well, but glovework is the highlight here and I can't wait to watch him work.

More Moves Left to Come?

Are the Twins done? Pitchers and catchers report in two weeks. Their roster is in pretty good shape after the January flurry, but there are a few areas that could still stand to be addressed.

The first is their logjam of lefty-swinging corner outfielders, which was worsened instead of relieved by adding Joey Gallo while Max Kepler (for now) stays put. All offseason we heard that Kepler had more trade value than people perceived, but as things wind down the front office seems to content holding him instead of dealing for an unsatisfactory return. (Maybe his trade value isn't really THAT much higher than perceived.)

Kepler remains a quality player on a reasonable contract, so keeping him isn't the worst thing in the world, but it sure feels like his roster spots could be better used by, say, a righty-swinging DH/1B type. (The Twins have been connected to Yuli Gurriel, who remains available.)

The bullpen is one other area that could still benefit from one more addition. Finding one more semi-stable option for the middle innings would be akin to supplementing the rotation with López. (And I don't mean Jorge López, who lends to this unit's volatility factor.) Michael Fulmer is still sitting out there, oddly unsigned...

Roster & Payroll Projection v. 7

Unless the Twins make one of the above moves, or another that falls outside of expectations, this might be our last offseason status update and roster projection until we get to spring training and can start mapping things out with increasing confidence.

As it stands, what you see below is roughly the group they'll be planning to roll with this year. Team payroll is above $150 million, which would set a new franchise record. Meanwhile, the rest of the division has barely done a thing all winter.

You can't win anything in the offseason, and the Twins are coming from a tough position off a third place finish with all their injury concerns. But there's not much more they could have done to address the weaknesses that pulled them down in 2022. 

 

View full article

[dxpavelka]

Two thoughts:  1:  "righty-swinging DH/1B type" = Miguel Sano.   B:  Not a  good sign when Luis Arraez is your only player to get MVP votes.

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

These moves create a situation where each roster spot is held by someone whose floor is closer to "average value" than "replacement value."

[RaoulDuke]

I think they have significantly raised the floor on this team, they should contend for the division even with the new schedule and playing better teams more.

The offense has potential but is reliant on a couple guys breaking out.

The pitching has a lot of 2-4 guys that could preform and make a nice rotation or be hurt/ rusty and throw back of the rotation stuff.

To make noise in the playoffs they need a lot of rolls to go right.  Best case scenario they feel ok about Lopez/ Mahle pitching game 1 and 2.  Buxton is healthy and Correa is leading a young core of Miranda/ Kirilloff/ Larnach.    

 

[h2oface]

I guess it is all perspective, and how one hopes it goes.

Lopez was an expendable piece with only 2 years of control and arm/shoulder risks to the Marlins, but "controllable, young, high-end pitching" for the Twins, even though "he doesn't [even] quite clear the Sonny Gray Threshold",  which might be debatable that Gray even qualifies as "high-end pitching," and "controllable" is just through 2024, and by mid-season he is in the trade now zone if we look at the Pressly and Berrios trades, especially if he doesn't like the terms of an extension he might be offered. Crucial veteran (27 year old season) depth with health question marks added to a rotation besieged by question marks. He probably fits right in.

Lefty Evan Sisk and righty Steven Cruz went from promising prospects being pitched with great optimism in the TD prospect articles - Sisk one that could help in the show this year - to "a pair of unexceptional pitching prospects." 

Teenaged prospects, Jose Salas and Byron Chourio, come with "considerable upside", but apparently not that considerable to the Marlins and they became a throw in to make the deal.

The Marlins are betting that Arraez is just getting started at 25 (26 for the 2023 season) and will hit even better and improve his fielding, and now for the Twins, the narrative becomes "if he loses 20 points of batting average, which can happen almost by random chance, he's a pretty mediocre player. He has no defensive value, no power, and doesn't really draw that many walks." 

And then there is a strikeout master in Gallo to fit in. He talks like he will be starting everyday -

"“It’s shaping up to be pretty good,” Gallo said. “I hope Buxton doesn’t steal too many of my balls. I like to run and catch some. I’m going to tell him, ‘Let me catch a few balls.’ Yeah, it’s exciting. Just to play next to a guy like Buxton is an honor. I’m glad I don’t have to hit against him anymore because he catches every ball in the gap.” 

- We should have fine defense, at least in the outfield and behind the plate.

“That's a defense that makes you just want to throw strikes and let the hitters put balls in play,” said Pablo López.

Yikes? Maybe all will shine. I hope so. They all may be great deals for both teams, Funny how perspective can change. Personally, I hope the home grown guys play so well that they make the strangers expendable.

[mikelink45]

I hope they do not squeeze Larnach out - if he is DH that is fine, but of course I would rather see him in the field.  We need to see if production meets projection.  

Hate to see Pagan second highest paid in BP and Gallo third highest paid bat. 

[miracleb]

I would argue that Arraez's best year was 2019....but he did get more at bats last year.  Also agree with mike (above)......let Larnach EAT!  We are talking about giving up major prospects for a guy(Reynolds) who will have the same numbers as Larnach would have if he played full-time!

[roger]

Was both surprised and elated when Sisk wasn't lost in the Rule 5 draft.  The league was telling us he didn't have a lot of value.  For him to then headline a deal for Taylor is surprising and an excellent move to improve the team's depth.

I cannot believe the Twins in their wildest dreams would have thought last November they could resign Correa to a six-year deal.  Not being tied to any really long-term deal has to be the goal of most teams, certainly those not located on either coast.  Thanks to the ineptitude of the Giants and Mets, the Twins get the best of both worlds with a six year deal with four option years.

Considering the Twins no longer have any good catching prospects at the higher levels of the minor leagues, signing three veterans to minor league contracts was an important move that hasn't been talked about here and elsewhere.  Getting Wolters and the two other guys provide insurance for an injury and valuable council for those young pitchers at St. Paul.

Hated losing Arraez.  But understand the reasons and will cross my fingers that Lopez is as good as advertised and can be signed to at least a few years extension.

 

[hitterscount]

The Correa deal falling into their laps has certainly changed the outlook of the team. I would think this line-up is strong enough to compete for the division.

The keys, IMO, are Miranda and Kirloff, they need to step-up. Really like the Taylor acquisition. Unless a trade really upgrades the roster I would defer until the trade deadline. Many of our top prospects are in the 24-27 age range, it is getting close to the point that they can either play at the MLB level or time to move on and using some of them in trades. The only way to find out what you have is letting them play. The team should be solid enough that will allow a prospect or two get steady playing time.   

[Doctor Gast]

Correa is a big addition to the team. Not only what he does on the field but his leadership, clubhouse presence and has a good understanding of the team & what can be done to improve us which greatly assists this FO.

Lopez is a great addition to the rotation, rankings that I've seen has him exceeds the Sonny Gray threshold. With expectations of becoming even better, plus an extra year to help fill out the rotation in '24.

Gordon & Celestino in '22 valiantly filled in CF, The best depth we've had for years. Granted Celestino was overwhelmed at the end but a MLB season is grinding & very demanding. He'll eventually get there. Gordon supplied a good LH bat & glove there & still should be used this year against RHPs. Taylor supplies an upgrade in glove & experience to Buxton especially against LHP. He should be used as defensive subbing & PR. Finally giving Celestino a chance to regroup in AAA.

We are definitely a much better team than we were a month ago. 

[Blyleven2011]

The FO has solidified our depth in most areas except the bullpen  still need some help in my opinion  unless some of the prospect starters make the team out of spring training as bullpen long relief guys which should be a must considering the pitchers pitch only 5 innings and 85 pitches and never a third time through the batting order ...

If a pitcher Is on his game let the pitcher pitch  , I'd rather the starting pitcher gets the quality start or the loss than a beat up bullpen  ...

I hope that Rocco changes this year on how he uses his pitchers ...

I too hate the loss of arreaz as his offense as a sparkplug  will be greatly missed until someone else steps up , Luis was so fun to watch as a major leaguer  , even if some didn't think he had defensive value ...

In my opinion he had plenty of defensive value as he loved the game and would play anywhere you asked him too  ..

If he had any defensive issues , they  were made up by his offense... pure and simple   ...

[MABB1959]

Has anyone heard anything about Buxton?  Is going to be ready for 2023?

[Whitey333]

Give the FO credit for making deals to try and improve the team.  They seem to love to take chances with pitchers with arm problems.  Lopez has been on the DL 3 times with pitching arm issues.  However I think he can be a good not great addition.  I wouldn't be surprised if this is sonny grays last year with twins.  The pieces seem to be mostly in place.  Now it's up to the players and Rocco to win the division.n with record payroll being spent and the numerous roster changes and thinning of farm system, missing the playoffs would be totally unacceptable.  Just win baby.

[jmlease1]

Twins are definitely not afraid to do their off-season work in January! It's probably not always going to work out, but overall it seems to be pretty respectable this year. Obviously re-signing Correa defines the off-season. It doesn't matter how it happened, it got done. Some people are going to call it luck, others will be more willing the credit the work of the front office (probably all depends on whether you went into the offseason wanting this regime to be fired or not), and a lot of us just don't care: he's here.

I'm still not wild about the Gallo move, and really wish the Twins had looked to go with a RH bat who could play corner OF/1B/DH. The risk is lower on Gallo for one year, his defense is like to still be very good to excellent out there, and the power is almost certainly still there...but he's been a bad hitter since leaving Texas. It wasn't just NY; the change of scenery in LA didn't do anything for him. he's simply not a major league player if he hits .160 We'll see if he can make enough contact.

I'm liking the Farmer move a lot more now that he's not going to be expected to start, but I know we should probably pump the brakes a little and not expect him to be this super-sub who routinely destroys lefties wherever he plays. But it is a role that fits well on this roster.

I still want Pagan moved. I just don't want him in this bullpen, and I think the FO is making a mistake in continuing to try and "fix" him. At least this year he's not going to be expected to take high-leverage roles early or often, but I just see him as a guy whose performance isn't going to match his stuff. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet, admit you're wrong about a guy, and move him on. If another team fixes him, that's the risk you have to take, but on a reliever like him it's not that impactful. Reduce the fans PTSD and let him go.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Nice article Nick.  I like what the FO did this year but have questions regarding how this group that they have compiled will fit the 26-man and 40-man rosters.  Do we have enough players with options remaining so as to not lose any of these on waivers or do we need a trade off the MLB roster to obtain prospects with options remaining?

Can you eventually do a follow up article or reply to this post addressing this question?

[Original_JB]

I saw the picture that goes with the article and thought, "hmmm, looks like they've got the 2024 alternative jersey figured out".

[GeorgiaBaller]

@dxpavelka if you saw Harry Potter, MS Sano is "the name that cannot be spoken" in my book.  If Joey Gallo's Strikeout Machine is still running, at least he is durable, shows up for work, and is top tier LF'r.  MS was none of the above and not mature enough to take care of his training regimen to keep off the extra weight.  

Hopefully the tracks have been torn out that lead to and from that stop!

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Outstanding summary. Thank you, Nick. 

[tony&rodney]

The depth is pretty good, certainly an improvement over last year. Now the players need to stay healthy and reach their potential. Kepler is worth holding unless a beneficial offer cannot be passed over. When the injured players go to the 60 day IL and the Twins get a few weeks to look at their bullpen arms, the Twins may add a Fulmer of Chafin. I'm good with what is rostered now.

Not important in any way, but I thought minimum salaries went to $720k this year. 

[LastOnePicked]

58 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I still want Pagan moved. I just don't want him in this bullpen, and I think the FO is making a mistake in continuing to try and "fix" him. At least this year he's not going to be expected to take high-leverage roles early or often, but I just see him as a guy whose performance isn't going to match his stuff. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet, admit you're wrong about a guy, and move him on. If another team fixes him, that's the risk you have to take, but on a reliever like him it's not that impactful. Reduce the fans PTSD and let him go.

This. Very much this. One of the greatest weaknesses of this team - the FO's inability to admit a mistake or to act swiftly to correct it - lives on. Pagan's first blown holds/saves of 2023 might set the tone for the year early in the clubhouse and in the stands. I still think that any FO committed to a winning culture wouldn't have kept him. 

[jmlease1]

27 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

This. Very much this. One of the greatest weaknesses of this team - the FO's inability to admit a mistake or to act swiftly to correct it - lives on. Pagan's first blown holds/saves of 2023 might set the tone for the year early in the clubhouse and in the stands. I still think that any FO committed to a winning culture wouldn't have kept him. 

I do think it's a weakness in most organizations, though. the sunk-cost fallacy is one of the hardest to overcome, especially in sports. I don't think Pagan is going to be in any save situations early in the season, you know? but that means you should be able to get equal value or more from someone else without giving the fans something to make ourselves crazy over. (I doubt it'll be an issue in the clubhouse; they're not going to all get a "loser mentality" or some such because pagan blew a hold)

[DocBauer]

I don't know if Kepler is going to be moved or not. A month ago I would have asked when, and not if. But I don't see Gurriel, or anyone, added unless someone in the OF is moved. (He'd make the most sense). 

The FO has a history of making moves all the way up until opening day. And we will have 3 open roster spots to work with once ST starts. There are a number of solid pen arms still available. There's a few arms coming off bad years who could be late, rebound signings. I would be surprised if the Twins don't bring in at least 1 arm. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if a deal was already in place with someone. 

[wsnydes]

I think the Correa saga energized the FO more than many appreciate.  I didn't think they were done before the signing, but I think they were pretty rudderless at that point.  Once Correa was signed, that gave them more of a compass in which to direct the remaining offseason.  I don't think they're done yet either.  They do appear to see that the division is still very weak and ripe for the taking and they are making moves accordingly.  If the roster can stay healthier, that will go a long way towards being competitive in the division.  I don't think they're much of a threat outside of it one way or another though.

Sports front offices have a lot more patience than fans, as they should.  It often comes across as not wanting to let go and admit a mistake (though there are definitely times when it's exactly that), but they're usually going to be patient enough to let a guy try to work through things.  That's hard to sell to fans.

[Brandon]

is Garlick's contract guarantied since he was an arbitration eligible player?  

potential moves on the horizon include signing a RH bat for DH or bring back Garlick, trade Kepler so there is roster space and more prospects in the farm.

sign a reliever.  there are still plenty out there and I suspect there will be a run on them soon.  

On Evan Sisk,  I always thought he would be fun to watch pitching to lefties but he will get murdered pitching to right handed batters.  He doesn't throw hard but a left handed side-armer is something different.

[Shaitan]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I hope they do not squeeze Larnach out - if he is DH that is fine, but of course I would rather see him in the field.  We need to see if production meets projection.  

Hate to see Pagan second highest paid in BP and Gallo third highest paid bat. 

It's somewhat a symbol to the age of the roster. The majority are still in arbitration or prearb years. Experience dictates salary in this league.

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

@dxpavelka if you saw Harry Potter, MS Sano is "the name that cannot be spoken" in my book.  If Joey Gallo's Strikeout Machine is still running, at least he is durable, shows up for work, and is top tier LF'r.  MS was none of the above and not mature enough to take care of his training regimen to keep off the extra weight.  

Hopefully the tracks have been torn out that lead to and from that stop!

 

I wouldn't watch Harry Potter if you paid me and the fact that I'm conversing with one who obviously would concerns me far more than any and all of your complaints about Sano.  Bottom line is he is entertaining as hell to watch and like it or not last year was kind of boring without him even with the team contending for 2/3 of the season.  But, yeah, sure, running a .199 career hitter out there should liven things up.