An Early Look at the 2023 Draft

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We’re still a half year away from the 2023 MLB Draft and, for the most part, every draft-eligible player will have many opportunities to help or hurt their draft stock. Today, we’re going to do a fun exercise where we look at the Twins draft spots and compare them to the recently-released Baseball America Top 200 draft prospects.

The Twins had luck on their side when they moved up to the 5th draft spot earlier this winter. As a result, the organization is likely going to add another Top 100 prospect to their stable. Currently, the big two names are LSU outfielder Dylan Crews and Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander. You'll see a lot of names come in after that - almost exclusively hitters - which plays well for a Twins organization that has developed a pattern of drafting college hitters.

#5 - Baseball America ranks prep outfielder Max Clark from Franklin, Indiana and a Vanderbilt commit as the #5 prospect. Clark fits the Twins M.O. as someone who is referred to as a “pure hitter.” As is typical with a hitter who doesn’t swing and miss often, there isn’t a lot of evident power. With the athleticism and instincts to play center field and the arm to play right, Clark checks a lot of boxes the Twins typically value.

Likelihood: Low. While Clark fits the skill profile, the Twins organization has favored college hitters and the Twins shouldn’t miss out with a Top 5 pick. Jacob Wilson, a shortstop from Grand Canyon University, is ranked #7 and has elite bat-to-ball ability. He’s also got MLB bloodlines. It wouldn’t be hard to draw (aside from only being a right-handed hitter) comparisons to Brooks Lee.

After drafting in Competitive Balance Round B last year, the Twins will draft in the Round A this year. Adding the 34th overall pick not only allows the team to add another highly-rated prospect, but gives them the advantage of having additional pool money to spend.

#34 - A number of teams forfeited their second-round pick to sign a free agent, so the Twins get to draft tenth in the second round.

The 34th-ranked player by Baseball America is Virginia Tech outfielder Jack Hurley. Having a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, Hurley is going to have to hit for power to make up for it. There’s not doubt the Twins saw plenty of Hurley while scouting Tanner Schobel, their second-round pick in 2022, as well as when Hurley played for Team USA this summer.  

Likelihood: Reasonably high. It makes sense from the perspective that the Twins would draft another Matt Wallner-type player: strikeouts, power and powerful arm. But once you get out of the top 10 picks, let alone the first round, projecting any specific player to a team proves futile.

#49 - This one might make you chuckle. Last year, the Twins selected a falling Alabama southpaw in Connor Prielipp. Right now, Baseball America has Grayson Hill, an Alabaman southpaw, ranked forty-ninth overall. Hill lacked great control both at Alabama and in the Cape Cod League, but has shown flashes of big-time stuff.

Likelihood: Coin toss. Pitching will likely dominate the Top 10 rounds for the Twins and the organization has a great relationship with the Alabama coaching staff. Hill seems to be more a project than the Twins typically take.

#82 - Coming in as the 82nd ranked prospect is Wisconsin prep right-hander Dylan Questad. Committed to Arkansas, Questad falls into the category where you either have to get drafted this high or enroll at college, which most Wisconsin prep pitcher do (most notable, of late, to do that is the aforementioned Prielipp.)

Likelihood: Low. Not for any other reason than because the Twins have a penchant for going the college route. Three years from now, Questad could definitely figure prominently on the Twins draft board. 

#113 - Jared Dickey is the 113th ranked prospect. A few things pop out immediately: He’s listed as an outfielder/catcher. The Twins desperately need to add catching prospects. He walks more than he strikes out. And he’s from Tennessee, a tough SEC school from which the Twins have plucked from three times since 2020 (Jorel Ortega, Jake Rucker and Alerick Soulaire).

Likelihood: As high as you’d see at this point. He does things the Twins like and he’s from a place the Twins like to draft from.

#149 - Ranked 149th is Liberty right-hander Trey Gibson. Gibson struggled and was hurt in 2022 and, when he was healthy, had a hard time throwing strikes. He’s raw, with upside, which is as good of gamble to take at this point of the draft as any.

Likelihood: Low. But drafting a college pitcher here is almost definitely going to be the way the team goes. 

#179 - The Twins match up with another son-of-a-former-MLBer in Oregon prep lefty Paul Wilson at #179. Wilson is committed to Oregon State, the same college his father, Trevor, pitched for in the 80s.

Likelihood: I’d bet on Wilson fulfilling his commitment to the Beavers. It’s normal to see preps ranked in the Top 200 not sign or, in some cases, not even get drafted. And that’s part of the danger of taking rankings as trying to use them as a quasi-mock draft. 

There’s still a lot of time to go between now and the July draft, but sometimes you just need a dose of it to get the draft blood flowing!
 

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[jishfish]

Hmm, not sure if I would completely agree with you on the Max Clark likelihood being low. We've seen this front office take high-upside HS position players 2 out of 3 times that they've picked in the top 15 and preferring the college bat route later in the first round. I think if they had a chance to take the top ranked HS player in this class they would/should.

To me, Clark's scouting profile reads a lot like Corbin Carroll back in 2019. But they did pass on him for Cavaco, so maybe I am totally off-base in thinking they would have interest in Clark. Either way, moving up to #5 gives them access to some talent that definitely wouldn't have made it to the mid-1st round, so very exciting! Lots of ways they could go with it.

[Dman]

It is early but right now there seems to be 4 players that could all go number one draft day and would be great fits for the Twins.  Of course we pick at number 5 this year.

Dylan Crews appears to be the consensus number 1 for the moment as he is a right handed 5 tool player that might stick in center but would be a plus defender in right and did I mention he was right handed and could be a fast mover due his bat contact skills.  He would be a great fit for the Twins if he could fall to pick number 5.

Next I have Langford he too could be a 5 tool player with power his calling card.  He too is a right handed batter who could play right field but his arm might only be average so likely best in left field although he is going to be playing in center this year.  He looks built like Aaron Judge except no one is as big as Judge but he could be a mini Judge and carries a powerful bat with a good hit tool.  He would be a nice addition for the Twins as well.

I have Dollander next who most project being taken 2nd because 11 of the Nats top 25 players in their system are already outfielders.  They are swimming in quality outfielders and Dollander is a top of the rotation arm maybe not seen since they picked Strassburg.  Dollander has it all and certainly could be the number 1 pick when it is all said and done if he has a dominant year and his arm holds up.  I have him at 3 simply because pitchers can be risky bets if he fell to number 5 again if I were the Twins I would take him.

At 4 I have the tooled up high school center fielder Max Clark.  He has 70 grade speed and a plus to plus plus hit tool only lacking power to be a five tool player and since he is only in high school has time to develop at least average power.  He would be the Twins center fielder of the future.  It is hard to find 5 tools players and he looks like he could be a good one in time.

At number 5 as Jeremy states certainly the next best bat would be Jacob Wilson.  Guy only K'd 7 times in 275 plate appearances has solid tools across the board and could stick at short and did I mention he is right handed?  He would be a good get at number 5 as well it is just that we suddenly are loaded with middle infield guys.

I guess I would really like to see the Twins try to grab a tooled up player at 5 and if Bradfield had a better arm or a bit more power I think that would be a good pick for the Twins at 5 as well.  Currently he only has three plus or plus plus tools Hitting is plus and run and fielding are plus, plus.  Now hear me out while he doesn't have great power if he can get on base at a good clip those walks and singles could still land him on 2nd making him a secondary doubles machine.  If the defense makes a mistake he ends up on third.  Gonna be real hard to throw out an 80 runner.  The arm if truly rated 40 is likely a problem though.  Anything hit deep is going to require the cutoff man to go deep to retrieve the ball so it is possible guys could tag up at 2nd and make it all the way home depending on where it is hit.  Still I think the Twins could use help in center with Buck hurt every year and Bradfield could be a fast mover and he maintains Bucks elite ability to get to balls in play.  Personally I think there is a case for Bradfield at 5.

For me I would love it if Clark was there at 5.  The Twins skipped on Carroll who wasn't supposed to hit for power either and I think Clark will be the same. 70 grade speed makes him an excellent defender with a plus bat odds are he ends up a 5 tool guy and that would maximize the value of the number 5 spot IMO.  Wilson isn't gonna be a 5 tool guy.  He has an elite hit tool and eye which is very good compensation but we have some solid up the middle hitters and the system is very short on centerfield prospects at least ones with elite run tools.  If he is there he should be the pick even though it might take him another year or two to get to the big leagues.

If Crews or Langford fall they are right handed outfield power bats that this team could desperately use as well.  Both should be fast movers and are solid 4 tool if not 5 tools players as well.  Odds are low they make it to 5 but I said the same thing about Lee last year.

Pitchers are the wild card as they could pop up into the top 5 Skenes has helium on MLB.com as does Waldrup. If they perform well they would be in the top 5 mix as well.  Leaving them out for now as so many things seem to happen to top end pitchers during the year.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be utterly shocked if they went pitcher, no matter what happens.....

Fun article, thanks!

[Doctor Gast]

If Max Clark has the maturity of Royce Lewis at his age, I'd go with Clark. I'd love to pick up some elite catching prospect somewhere on the top. IMO the cupboards are pretty bare.

[Dman]

54 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If Max Clark has the maturity of Royce Lewis at his age, I'd go with Clark. I'd love to pick up some elite catching prospect somewhere on the top. IMO the cupboards are pretty bare.

If the Twins had more of a mid 1st round pick I could see them possibly adding number 32 on mlb.com Cole Carrigg. He shows as a catcher, outfield and shortstop.  He also is a switch hitter.  If the bat is for real and a team thinks he could stick behind the plate he could be a fast riser.  Will have to wait and see how much helium is there around draft time.

[tony&rodney]

Max Clark would be fine.

[sweetmusicviola16]

30 minutes ago, Dman said:

If the Twins had more of a mid 1st round pick I could see them possibly adding number 32 on mlb.com Cole Carrigg. He shows as a catcher, outfield and shortstop.  He also is a switch hitter.  If the bat is for real and a team thinks he could stick behind the plate he could be a fast riser.  Will have to wait and see how much helium is there around draft time.

They do have that #34 pick so Carrigg landing there wouldn't be unthinkable. Or a guy like Teel.

As for our pick at #5 I'm hoping a guy like Paul Skenes the RHP from LSU is available. He can also play the field and hit for poewr. Could be our Ohtani

[DocBauer]

As I do with the NFL draft, I don't spend a lot of time on draft prospects and scenarios until the actual draft gets closer. Just so many variables over the course of the months until the draft actually arrives. But I love and appreciate articles and information of this sort to aid with my familiarity as the time draws close. So thank you Jeremy, and the everyone else's contributions!

I'm not certain the Twins are desperate for catching help after selecting 5 between the past couple of drafts. But it's an incredibly important position and hard to find good ones, much less great ones, so I do believe you take a couple every year if you're smart.

I also agree a really nice RH OF, or two, would be smart to help balance out the system. I could see one very early.

Hard to argue with the Twins going heavy on arms this year. The prospect cupboard isn't barren, but it does feel light compared to the position player strength from the DSL on up. There's a few guys they selected in 2022 that look intriguing and seem to fit the FO MO of projects that have the frame and at least 1 very good pitch and/or quality that could make them a potential steal. But yeah, time to re-stock the cupboard.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Hopefully someone takes Clark ahead of the Twins so they aren't tempted to. That would get them a better shot at a big time college arm too. Skenes.

[chpettit19]

Best player available. Always and forever. Unless it's a high school arm at the top of the draft. They fail far too often. But at pick 5 they should be going best player available and not overthinking anything.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

If the Twins had more of a mid 1st round pick I could see them possibly adding number 32 on mlb.com Cole Carrigg. He shows as a catcher, outfield and shortstop.  He also is a switch hitter.  If the bat is for real and a team thinks he could stick behind the plate he could be a fast riser.  Will have to wait and see how much helium is there around draft time.

When I stated the cupboards are bare I meant "our". Yes Carrigg or Teal, both are very good candidates with good arms & bats. Hopefully we focus on them and it's possible either could fall in our laps

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

They do have that #34 pick so Carrigg landing there wouldn't be unthinkable. Or a guy like Teel.

As for our pick at #5 I'm hoping a guy like Paul Skenes the RHP from LSU is available. He can also play the field and hit for poewr. Could be our Ohtani

I was following HS Brady Neal 17 yr. old (C) last year that was ranked 74, he chose to go to LSU instead. LSU should have a great team this year!

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm not certain the Twins are desperate for catching help after selecting 5 between the past couple of drafts. But it's an incredibly important position and hard to find good ones, much less great ones, so I do believe you take a couple every year if you're smart.

None of the 5 were ranked very high. The one we got from the International signing has potential but IMO iffy. Parada & Varsho were ranked high but IMO neither will stick at catcher. They have the bat but don't have the arm, which will be very important. So you're right Doc, high ranking doesn't always mean you got a great catcher.

[miracleb]

You had me at........"Early Look!
:)

[roger]

Am I correct, Jeremy, in assuming the #42 pick is their Comp pick?

[MN_ExPat]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was following HS Brady Neal 17 yr. old (C) last year that was ranked 74, he chose to go to LSU instead. LSU should have a great team this year!

[Dman]

33 minutes ago, roger said:

Am I correct, Jeremy, in assuming the #42 pick is their Comp pick?

https://www.mlb.com/draft/2023/order

[Jeremy Nygaard]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Am I correct, Jeremy, in assuming the #42 pick is their Comp pick?

I re-formatted things and it's a little confusing, but yes... #42 is the comp pick.

[MN_ExPat]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was following HS Brady Neal 17 yr. old (C) last year that was ranked 74, he chose to go to LSU instead. LSU should have a great team this year!

All (or at least some) joking aside... Just looking across the board at the SEC this year, there are some scary good teams.  Looks like a lot of good college baseball this year .

[Jeremy Nygaard]

16 hours ago, jishfish said:

Hmm, not sure if I would completely agree with you on the Max Clark likelihood being low. We've seen this front office take high-upside HS position players 2 out of 3 times that they've picked in the top 15 and preferring the college bat route later in the first round. I think if they had a chance to take the top ranked HS player in this class they would/should.

To me, Clark's scouting profile reads a lot like Corbin Carroll back in 2019. But they did pass on him for Cavaco, so maybe I am totally off-base in thinking they would have interest in Clark. Either way, moving up to #5 gives them access to some talent that definitely wouldn't have made it to the mid-1st round, so very exciting! Lots of ways they could go with it.

I just think - at this point - projecting someone from the most volatile group has a lower probability. Elijah Green was the top high school hitter at this point last year. He ended up being the fourth drafted. Jackson Holliday wasn't even a mention and he went first overall. All accounts were that the Twins were in on the college hitter demographic. That could certainly change from year-to-year. But the Twins love college guys with hitter's profiles and Gonzalez and Wilson definitely fit that profile. 

On the flip side, I wouldn't dislike taking Clark at all. The ceiling on high school guys is typically (right or wrong) higher than college guys and I'm a sucker for upside. One name that I think could propel up draft boards is prep SS Arjun Nimmala and it wouldn't surprise me at all if other prep guys start popping up in the spring either.

[BAUERS]

My worry about Clarke is he's not going to fill out like most high school porspects he's already pretty strong. I feel that makes him less projectable than a lot of high schoolers. But he is arguably the best athlete in the top 10. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

If Max Clark has the maturity of Royce Lewis at his age, I'd go with Clark. I'd love to pick up some elite catching prospect somewhere on the top. IMO the cupboards are pretty bare.

Came here to agree with this take. 

[gman]

Not something they do, but I'd lean towards taking the best pitcher available if there is one around their draft position.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Another guy that could soar up the draft charts is Grand Canyon OF Homer Bush JR.

[MN_ExPat]

23 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Another guy that could soar up the draft charts is Grand Canyon OF Homer Bush JR.

If for no other reason, it's another great baseball name 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 2/2/2023 at 1:52 PM, MN_ExPat said:

If for no other reason, it's another great baseball name 

There aren’t enough Homers these days.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Pitching is so vital, today, tomorrow and always. However drafting pitchers is inherently risky. Would one of the writers at TD (cough, cough, Jeremy, cough, Seth, cough, cough) consider conducting  an interview with a member of the FO who would speak openly about draft strategies and pitfalls regarding the drafting of pitchers. If a member of the Twins FO is not willing to be interviewed, contact a retired "draft specialist" for any team. I think the same risk could apply to drafting catchers.  Then write an article for all of TD to read. Thank you in advance.

[MN_ExPat]

13 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Pitching is so vital, today, tomorrow and always. However drafting pitchers is inherently risky. Would one of the writers at TD (cough, cough, Jeremy, cough, Seth, cough, cough) consider conducting  an interview with a member of the FO who would speak openly about draft strategies and pitfalls regarding the drafting of pitchers. If a member of the Twins FO is not willing to be interviewed, contact a retired "draft specialist" for any team. I think the same risk could apply to drafting catchers.  Then write an article for all of TD to read. Thank you in advance.

Well done Sir.  Mr. Norris approves