Twins Daily 2023 Prospect Rankings (Part 1: Honorable Mention)

[Seth Stohs]

Tomorrow we will start sharing the Twins Daily Top 30 Twins Prospects heading into the 2023 season. Today, you can see some of the depth in the organization with others who were outside our Top 30 but showed up on some Top 30 lists. 

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photos of Holland, Laweryson), William Parmeter (photo of Cardenas)

In the past, we have presented our selections for the Top 20 Twins prospects before each season. In 2022, that list was the starting point for the Prospect Tracker which we updated at the beginning of each month and after the trade deadline, and then at the end of the season. 

Since the season’s end, there have been several changes. Several players became free agents. The Twins lost a couple of pitchers in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. They made a couple of trades to bring in new talent from the Angels and Marlins while sending two upper-level relievers to the Royals. In addition, our minor-league writers have learned more and more about several prospects, particularly those drafted or signed most recently. 

With all that said, this year, we are moving to a Top 30 Twins prospect rankings for a couple of reasons. First, ten of our minor-league writers provided a list of their Top 30 Twins prospects. Second, why not recognize another ten Twins prospects at this time of year? Now, we are going to do that by adding just one more article. Tomorrow, we will share our choices for Twins Prospects 21-30. With the current schedule, starting next week, we will be jumping into the Top 10 prospects. 

However, today, we will be starting this series by sharing a list of Honorable Mentions, or Also Received Votes, if you prefer. Even within this group, which could make up our prospects from around 31 through around 45, there are several future big-leaguers in the group, a couple that we could see in 2023. 

I’ve really enjoyed writing this Honorable Mention article because it can show the organization’s depth. If we are being honest, it can also show the limitations of prospect ranking. This can be former prospects coming off of bad years. It can be recently-acquired players (via trade or draft) that may not be the top picks but there is something intriguing. There may be players who have never been looked at as top prospects but continue to consistently get moved up and keep themselves in the conversation. 

In 2019, Luis Arraez and Jordan Balazovic appeared in this range of the list. The 2020 Honorable Mention article named players such as Jorge Alcala, Bailey Ober, and Akil Baddoo.) 

Last year’s Honorable Mentions were quite interesting. It included 2021 picks that have been traded in key trades such as Cade Povich and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. It also contained 2019 pick Sawyer Gipson-Long who was traded to the Tigers at the deadline. Casey Legumina was traded to the Reds for Kyle Farmer after being added to the Twins' 40-man roster. Oh, and wait until you see which players jumped from Honorable Mention last year into the Top 10 this year. 

Before we start, the following players are no longer “prospects” according to Baseball-Reference: Jose Miranda, Gilberto Celestino, Joe Ryan, Jovani Moran, Josh Winder, and Jhoan Duran. 

FIRST-ROUND FEATURE  
2019 first-round pick Keoni Cavaco fell out of the top 20 last year and this year, out of the top 30. Honestly, the tools, speed, power, and arm strength are all still there. He returned to the Mighty Mussels in 2022 but made the move to third base. In 99 games, he hit .231/.275/.397 (.672) with 18 doubles, five triples, and 11 home runs. He missed a little time. He should move out of the Florida State League, so don’t give up on him yet. 

UTILITY TYPES IN UPPER LEVELS 
They may not be top prospects, but you have to have noticed that this organization places a lot of value on versatility and being able to play multiple positions. That becomes more valuable as guys reach the upper levels.  

Michael Helman’s ‘stock’ soared in 2022 when he split his season between Wichita and St. Paul. In 135 games, he hit .258/.337/.432 (.769) with 23 doubles and 20 homers while stealing 40 bases in 45 attempts. Drafted as an infielder, he has played all three infield and outfield spots over the past two seasons. 

Anthony Prato was a 7th-round pick from UConn in 2019. He split 2022 between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. Combined, he played 60 games in left field, 34 games at second base, 22 games at third base, and 12 games at shortstop. He also made starts, and first base and in right field. He played a combined 132 games and hit .285/.383/.444 (.827) with 30 doubles, eight triples, and 10 homers. He also stole 22 bases. 

Will Holland was the Twins 5th round pick in 2019 from Auburn. While he was drafted as a shortstop and made 15 starts at that position in Cedar Rapids, he has made a pretty clear transition to the outfield. He is arguably the fastest player in the organization and has played a lot of center field. After a late-season promotion to Wichita, he played solely in the outfield, playing more in the corners with DaShawn Keirsey in center. In 116 games, he hit .227/.339/.366 (.705) with 13 doubles, six triples, and nine homers. He also stole 32 bases in 38 attempts. 

BACKSTOPS  
The Twins added Christian Vazquez this offseason to team with Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. They have also added several veteran backstops, including Tony Wolters , Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco, to play in St. Paul along with David Banuelos. While the Twins don’t have any high-ranking catcher prospects, there are a few intriguing guys who can catch if needed. 

Chris Williams was the team’s 8th-round pick in 2018 from Clemson. He played 117 games between Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .246/.343/.500 (.843) with 21 doubles and 28 home runs. While he made 81 starts at first base, he continued to get time behind the plate with 21 starts. 

A 29th-round pick in 2019 from TCU, Alex Isola, missed time in 2022 with an injury. However, he made 17 starts at first base and 17 more behind the plate. He got a few at-bats and continued to work in the Arizona Fall League where he caught three times and played 12 games at first base. 

Noah Cardenas was the team’s 8th-round pick in 2021 out of UCLA. He was the Twins Daily Minor league All-Star catcher in 2022 when he hit .261/.421/.413 (.834) with 18 doubles and nine homers. He started at first base 25 times and at catcher 56 times. He has thrown out 29% of would-be base stealers. 

WE HARDLY KNOW YE, YET
There are several players that we just need to learn more about, and they fit in this category. 

Alejandro Hidalgo is the 19-year-old right-hander that the Twins received in the Gio Urshela deal. In Low-A in 2022, he made ten starts and went 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In 39 innings, he walked too many (19) but had an impressive 58 strikeouts (13.4 K/9). He currently has a low-90s fastball, but a changeup that can be really, really good. He is definitely one to watch in 2023. 

Brayan Medina was part of the Opening Day trade between the Twins and Padres. The 20-year-old pitched in just 10 games for the FCL Twins in 2022. It didn’t go well. In 23 2/3 innings, he struck out 24 batters, but he also walked 20 batters. 

Ariel Castro signed with the Twins about two weeks ago as a 16-year-old from Venezuela for $2.5 million. He hits left-handed, and he’s from Cuba. He’s got a sweet swing, but it’ll be fun to start following his career, which is likely to start in the DSL this year. 

Players from the 2022 draft to get some Top 30 recognition include right-handed pitcher Andrew Morris (4th round, Texas Tech) and Cory Lewis (9th round, UC-Santa Barbara), and infielders Ben Ross (5th round, Notre Dame College, OH), and Omari Daniel (14th round, The Walker School in Georgia). The reports are very interesting on both Lewis and Ross. 

INTERESTING ARMS
Cody Laweryson’s 2022 season started a little late, but it ended spectacularly. The 2019 14th-round pick from Maine played in the Arizona Fall League in 2021. He began with 16 games (2 starts) in Cedar Rapids and posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He finished the season with 19 games, including eight starts, in Wichita. He dominated to the tune of a 1.06 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. In 94 2/3 innings, he had 111 strikeouts. He doesn’t throw really hard, but he’s got a funky delivery and hides the ball well.  (See Laweryson's episode of Twins Spotlight.)

Sean Mooney had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and the Twins selected him with their 12th-round pick that year. Since his return, he’s struggled to pitch consistent innings, but he has been a strikeout machine. In 2022 in Cedar Rapids, he posted a 3.30 ERA, and in 60 innings, he walked 30 but struck out 82 batters. 

Travis Adams split the 2022 season between Ft. Myers (15 starts) and Cedar Rapids (7 starts). He went a combined 6-8 with a 3.93 ERA. He had 108 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings and had just 26 walks. While the numbers don’t jump out, the 2021 sixth-round pick is incredibly intriguing and could jump into the Top 20 a year from now. 

----------------------

That is a lot of talent, and those are guys who rank outside of the Twins Daily Top 30 prospects. Check back over the next two weeks to see who our 2023 Top 30 Twins Prospects are.

 

 

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[Monkeypaws]

I still have some small hopes for Cavaco. 

Will Holland has sure looked like a ballplayer every time I've seen him play.

Hitting is hard. Maybe something will click this year for these two.

[roger]

Thanks for doing this, Seth.

Perhaps your most interesting comment was that there are several future big leaguers in this group.  Would be like going to a casino and rolling the dice to pick out who they are, but yes, there will be a few who will rise to the top and make it.

Hardest thing I had when reading this was to keep reminding myself that playing at Cedar Rapids and Wichitia didn't mean a player jumped one entire level. 

Seth, when you mentioned the veteran catchers the Twins signed, didn't they also sign Tony Wolters? He is a 30 year old who had played parts of four or five years with the Rockies.  Great seeing them pick up several to play at St. Paul and are available to be added when/if either Jeffers or Vasquez gets injured.  Also great having veterans in St. Paul to work with all the young pitchers.

[High heat]

Always love the prospect write ups!! 
 

as far as this honorable mentioned list goes I’m surprised Michael Helman didn’t get a chance last season when all the injuries happened.  I think his speed and super utility will give him a big league opportunity.  
 

Chris Williams has a nice bat if he was a decent catcher but playing only a few game behind the plate and less and less each season likely means he isn’t even seen as a big league option.  Hope Isola doesn’t go down the same route. 

[Beast]

The prospect write-ups/updates are my favorite part about TD.  No other outlet does it better.

Man, that Cavaco pick just keeps looking worse.  It’s not really a hindsight thing, either.  I recall it being very questionable at the time.

I know, it’s how the baseball draft works. But, looking back and seeing Corbin Carrol, Gunnar Henderson and others go after him is painful.  It’s one thing if there’s somewhat of a consensus about a players draft slot (Nick Gordon, for example).  But, when a lot of analysts wonder what the hell you’re doing and it turns out like this…you have to wonder what the hell they were doing.

Overall their first round/compensatory draft track record leaves a lot to be desired.  Especially if Royce Lewis can’t stay on the field.

[Cris E]

Minor mistake: Rochester --> St Paul

You've been doing this a long time Seth, so it's understandable. At least you didn't say Salt Lake or Toledo.

[Chachi]

Merry Prospect Ranking Season!  It's the most wonderful time of the year!  Thank you - 

[Nashvilletwin]

Cody Laweryson

[Doctor Gast]

Eventhough Helman’s path has been blocked. I still hope he’ll take that extra step and make it to MLB somewhere.
  Interesting that Holland has made that transition like Gordon did. Hope for the same results.

 Still hope that Noah Cardenas can be a starting catcher.

 I guess at this stage that’s all you can do.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I remember when DaShawn Keirsey was drafted a lot of people were high on him. Then he kind of fell into oblivion. Last year he finally hit a little. Has he figured something out?

[jmlease1]

I hope they start Laweryson at AAA. This is his age 25 season, and I'm not sure there's much to be gained by having him beat up on AA hitters again. He's an interesting case since he's not a big velocity guy, and it's unclear whether he's a starter or reliever even now?

Cavaco needs to get it going, but he does have tools. He might be another kid who can't apply them to baseball, but it'll be interesting to see if he a late bloomer who figures it out or a bust.

[mikelink45]

This was really fun - an introduction to a lot of names without worrying about rank.  It is so hard to get to the majors and I want to see more opportunities for graduation.  It is one of the reason I am never excited about veteran additions that have poor upside - I would rather move through the minors.  

[Dman]

I have to say I was surprised at just how well Lawyerson did at AA.  That is the Texas league a hitters league and he manages a 1.06 ERA and sub 1 WHIP. Wow!  That is domination.  He never had an elite fastball so I assume he has plus secondary's?  I had thought a team might take a chance on him in Rule V but the rest of the league doesn't see him as worthy of roster spot just yet.  Gonna be an interesting year for Cody to be sure. 

I really like what Cardenas did in A ball.  He was one of the best all around players in that league IMO.  Good bat,  Good Defense. Good eye at the plate.  I think he has a chance to be a really good catcher but there is a looong way to go.

I  like Mooney and the K's he produces but that WHIP was short of dominant to me. We will see if he passes the AA test and if he does then he looks like a viable reliver to me.

After the 2019 Season I was ready to say goodbye to Michael Helman.  He looked massively overmatched at the plate to me.  Seth who never gives up on any prospect still felt he could make it.  I guess Seth and that eternal optimism worked out this time around.  Helman looks like a MLB utility player to me.  If he keeps that slugging up he will get a chance somewhere. Maybe not the Twins but some team will want him.

It is a nice list and I am excited to see the how the 2022 class does in a full season.  Hopefully some of those guys makes some noise and bring the farm system up in the rankings.

The international class has a lot of players that could already make their way to the FCL in Mercedes, Rodriguez, Nova, DeAndrade, Cruz, and Pena. With Pena and Olivar likely to start in A ball. So lot's of promising young guys to watch at the lower levels this year.

As Always thanks Seth for the writeup on the prospects who give us hope for the stars to come.

[MN_ExPat]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

Overall their first round/compensatory draft track record leaves a lot to be desired.  Especially if Royce Lewis can’t stay on the field.

While I believe I understand your sentiment... injuries are no ones fault.  If you choose to start fashioning a noose for the FO for other picks, that's your call. 

However, outside of consecutive hard/bad luck injuries, Lewis has done nothing to indicate that he is anything other than a really good baseball player.

[Seth Stohs]

5 hours ago, roger said:

Seth, when you mentioned the veteran catchers the Twins signed, didn't they also sign Tony Wolters? He is a 30 year old who had played parts of four or five years with the Rockies.  Great seeing them pick up several to play at St. Paul and are available to be added when/if either Jeffers or Vasquez gets injured.  Also great having veterans in St. Paul to work with all the young pitchers.

Yes, they did sign Wolters too... That is a miss on my part... He will obviously be the guy to come up first if there is an injury. 

[Seth Stohs]

4 hours ago, Cris E said:

Minor mistake: Rochester --> St Paul

You've been doing this a long time Seth, so it's understandable. At least you didn't say Salt Lake or Toledo.

Man... that's not good. I am also getting old!! That doesn't help. I'm surprised I haven't used Rochester more. Or Pensacola, or Chattanooga, or New Britain...

[Seth Stohs]

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Cody Laweryson

had an incredible season and earned his spring training invitation! 

 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I remember when DaShawn Keirsey was drafted a lot of people were high on him. Then he kind of fell into oblivion. Last year he finally hit a little. Has he figured something out?

I definitely think so. They have continued to move him up each year despite the lost time and struggles, and he had a really nice, healthy season in 2022 at Wichita. He is a plus-plus center fielder, with speed and instincts. He's got base stealing speed and triples speed, but he also hit a few home runs a long way! I have him at #29 on my list and I tried to move him up even more. He's very good. 

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope they start Laweryson at AAA. This is his age 25 season, and I'm not sure there's much to be gained by having him beat up on AA hitters again. He's an interesting case since he's not a big velocity guy, and it's unclear whether he's a starter or reliever even now?

Cavaco needs to get it going, but he does have tools. He might be another kid who can't apply them to baseball, but it'll be interesting to see if he a late bloomer who figures it out or a bust.

The Twins really haven't signed a lot of veteran pitchers to minor-league deals. They will have several young starters, and there should be some bullpen jobs open for Laweryson and others. They signed Dereck Rodriguez and Jose Bravo and Patrick Murphy. Danny Coulombe is back. They successfully got Oliver Ortega and Blayne Enlow through waivers. Schulfer will be in St. Paul... SWR, Dobnak, Varland, Balazovic will be there. Winder, Sands and Henriquez could all start or come out of the bullpen. So, I think Laweryson will get a chance to compete in spring for a AAA job, but I'd expect he'll start in Wichita. But other guys like Osiris German, Michael Boyle, Jose De Leon and Brock Stewart will be around too. 

And yes,  I don't have a problem with the Cavaco pick. He's all about upside and tools and talent. he's big, strong, fast, good hands, strong arm... it's all there. I think they should push him up to Cedar Rapids this year. Get him out of the Florida State League. Keep him at third base. And, no reason to not keep him in the organization until he's a free agent. 

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

After the 2019 Season I was ready to say goodbye to Michael Helman.  He looked massively overmatched at the plate to me.  Seth who never gives up on any prospect still felt he could make it.  I guess Seth and that eternal optimism worked out this time around.  Helman looks like a MLB utility player to me.  If he keeps that slugging up he will get a chance somewhere. Maybe not the Twins but some team will want him.

Yes, I'm an eternal optimist, and I'm good with that. But as long as they're in the system, they're going to keep working with them, and they're all pro ballplayers with a lot of talent. There are pitchers who are one tweak from the right coach away from getting a cup of coffee compared to not getting to Double-A. I'm especially optimistic when it comes to athletes. I know they won't all make it, that's just the game. Most won't make it, but athletes can move positions, and there are so many variables. With Helman, he hit like crazy in college, so had to figure it was there. After that rough 2019 and lost 2020, he went to Cedar Rapids in 2021, got a chance in a new utility role, and got to work with Bryce Berg. Right coach, right time. Something clicked and now he has done well at Triple-A and has those speed tools with a little power and the ability to play at least 7 positions. We (and the Twins) could have given up on him in 2019... or you just keep working with them and see what happens. And obviously Helman deserves most of the credit too, for his hard work in and out of season, and his willingness to try things and be coachable. 

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

While I believe I understand your sentiment... injuries are no ones fault.  If you choose to start fashioning a noose for the FO for other picks, that's your call. 

However, outside of consecutive hard/bad luck injuries, Lewis has done nothing to indicate that he is anything other than a really good baseball player.

Correct, and they have had some good successes around all the injuries. Wallner is looking like a good pick. Their 2021 picks netted them Gray, Mahle and J Lopez. Their 2019 Day 2/3 draft picks included Headrick, Varland, and in 2021, they added Festa, Ohl and Nowlin on Day 3. I think their scouts have done well, and I wish there was a good way to truly measure that beyond just how many get to the big leagues or how much WAR a draft class accumulated. A 12th round pick getting to AA deserves notice. A 19th round pick getting to Hi-A ball warrants credit. You could do something with that... However, the other side of that is... Many think that Player X is the logical pick for the Twins at pick 48... but you've watched Player X and realize that he has something that just is unlikely to allow him to be a big leaguer. That scout has to be OK to say not to pick a certain guy. That's stuff we could never quantify because we don't know how much of that happens. 

[roger]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins really haven't signed a lot of veteran pitchers to minor-league deals. They will have several young starters, and there should be some bullpen jobs open for Laweryson and others. They signed Dereck Rodriguez and Jose Bravo and Patrick Murphy. Danny Coulombe is back. They successfully got Oliver Ortega and Blayne Enlow through waivers. Schulfer will be in St. Paul... SWR, Dobnak, Varland, Balazovic will be there. Winder, Sands and Henriquez could all start or come out of the bullpen. So, I think Laweryson will get a chance to compete in spring for a AAA job, but I'd expect he'll start in Wichita. But other guys like Osiris German, Michael Boyle, Jose De Leon and Brock Stewart will be around too. 

And yes,  I don't have a problem with the Cavaco pick. He's all about upside and tools and talent. he's big, strong, fast, good hands, strong arm... it's all there. I think they should push him up to Cedar Rapids this year. Get him out of the Florida State League. Keep him at third base. And, no reason to not keep him in the organization until he's a free agent. 

Need some help, Seth.  Is DeLeon the pitcher we all hoped/prayed the Twins would get from the Dodgers back in the Dozier trade?  If so, his career sure hasn't gone as expected.  What was it, injuries?

[DocBauer]

A lot of interesting names on the honorable mention list here. And agreed that some are interesting and will undoubtedly find their way to the ML level at some point, whether with the Twins, or someone else.

Helman is at the top of my list. Boy has he turned his game around the past 2yrs. He's a little older, a bit of a late bloomer, so I understand why he's not more highly regarded. I was actually surprised someone didn't nab him in the rule 5 as a talented utility type. I'm still flabbergasted he wasn't brought up at the end of last year when the Twins were scrambling to put players on the field. He's going to be a nice role player for someone.

Prato is one of those guys who seems to always be forgotten. Including by me. I think he defies a specific role offensively, but he just keeps producing and putting up solid numbers overall. And every time I look at milb box scores, and his numbers, he just keeps getting the job done.

Nice to see Keirsey have a good year. I recall his bad college injury and questions about his selection, despite a lot of good tools. I just don't know how he "fits" going forward with the OF depth available. But he might end up being a LH backup to Buxton.

I wish Isola and Williams were true catchers. While not knowing enough about them defensively, and falling understanding ALL milb catchers are going to move around so that EVERYONE gets to play and develop, they just don't seem to spend enough time behind the dish to tell me they have much of a future there at the ML level. Williams had a bad shoulder in college, and I'm guessing that's why he's been more of a 1B/DH. Too bad, I've heard he's a smart receiver. 

Really hoping Cardenas and the other 4 catchers the Twins drafted the past 2yrs take a step up in 2023. It's such an important position, and so hard to find good ones, much less great ones. I'm holding out hope for Carmago, not listed here. Is he forgotten? Or does he appear as a surprise in the top 30?

I don't think Mooney and Adams are the only "boy could they make a jump if" for this year. But I do recall them being drafted as "intriguing" options in the mid rounds. But Laweryson is of great interest to me. He MIGHT begin 2023 in Wichita as the St Paul staff could be pretty packed, but I see him at AAA quickly, if not right away. His delivery is very sneaky, and that change is NASTY. I think we'll see him in middle relief for the Twins in the near future.

Really excited about a number of international kids taking a step forward this next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gaining some serious momentum. 

[HrbieFan]

11 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

I still have some small hopes for Cavaco. 

Will Holland has sure looked like a ballplayer every time I've seen him play.

Hitting is hard. Maybe something will click this year for these two.

I just hope Brooks Lee doesn't follow the same path as so many of the FOs top picks. 

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

I just hope Brooks Lee doesn't follow the same path as so many of the FOs top picks. 

I don't know if by "same path" you mean being injured or not performing, but I hope it's not not performing. Because I feel like that is a perception thing. 66% of 1st round picks make it to the majors. Not succeed in the majors, simply ever play in the majors. The percentage obviously goes down from there. I don't know what you consider "top picks," but here's all the guys this FO has picked in the top 3 rounds:

Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner, Matt Canterino, Spencer Steer, Aaron Sabato, Alerick Soularie, Chase Petty, Noah Miller, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Brooks Lee, Connor Prielipp, Tanner Schobel.

That's 19 total players. 12 hitters. 7 pitchers. They've had 6 of them reach the majors to this point. All 6 are hitters. So half the hitters they've taken in the top 3 rounds have reached the majors to this point. That's above average to start with, but then you consider that only 10 of these guys were drafted before 2020 and the numbers are even more impressive. Only 4 (unless I missed 1 or 2 in my counting) players from the 2020 draft have debuted to this point so expecting the Twins to have had any is pretty unreasonable. So they've had 6 of 10 players in the top 3 rounds of their first 3 drafts debut. Remember, only 66% of 1st round picks ever debut, let alone rounds 2 and 3.

The only hitter they took in the 2016-2019 drafts (in the top 3 rounds) that hasn't debuted is Cavaco. Him and Sabato are looking like pretty big misses, but overall the Twins have actually done a pretty incredible job at drafting and developing early round hitters. They could certainly use Lewis and Larnach and Lee staying healthy and becoming stars to really make things look good, but compared to the rest of the league they're doing quite well. And they really need to figure out the frontline pitching situation. Need to start churning a couple of those types out. But the narrative that they've struggled with drafting and developing appears to be based off some really high expectations that don't match the reality of the baseball draft.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know if by "same path" you mean being injured or not performing, but I hope it's not performing. Because I feel like that is a perception thing. 66% of 1st round picks make it to the majors. Not succeed in the majors, simply ever play in the majors. The percentage obviously goes down from there. I don't know what you consider "top picks," but here's all the guys this FO has picked in the top 3 rounds:

Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner, Matt Canterino, Spencer Steer, Aaron Sabato, Alerick Soularie, Chase Petty, Noah Miller, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Brooks Lee, Connor Prielipp, Tanner Schobel.

That's 19 total players. 12 hitters. 7 pitchers. They've had 6 of them reach the majors to this point. All 6 are hitters. So half the hitters they've taken in the top 3 rounds have reached the majors to this point. That's above average to start with, but then you consider that only 10 of these guys were drafted before 2020 and the numbers are even more impressive. Only 4 (unless I missed 1 or 2 in my counting) players from the 2020 draft have debuted to this point so expecting the Twins to have had any is pretty unreasonable. So they've had 6 of 10 players in the top 3 rounds of their first 3 drafts debut. Remember, only 66% of 1st round picks ever debut, let alone rounds 2 and 3.

The only hitter they took in the 2016-2019 drafts (in the top 3 rounds) that hasn't debuted is Cavaco. Him and Sabato are looking like pretty big misses, but overall the Twins have actually done a pretty incredible job at drafting and developing early round hitters. They could certainly use Lewis and Larnach and Lee staying healthy and becoming stars to really make things look good, but compared to the rest of the league they're doing quite well. And they really need to figure out the frontline pitching situation. Need to start churning a couple of those types out. But the narrative that they've struggled with drafting and developing appears to be based off some really high expectations that don't match the reality of the baseball draft.

Excellent post. People are very unrealistic about drafts and about trades. Not to mention impatient. And blame people for injuries. 

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

'm holding out hope for Carmago, not listed here. Is he forgotten? Or does he appear as a surprise in the top 30?

Yea, where is Camargo? Seemingly a good defensive catcher who actually plays there more than other positions and has good pop to his bat.

[Blyleven2011]

Chris Williams was drafted the same year as jeffers  , if batting average doesn't matter he hits the long ball which the twins seem to be lacking  , could be a 1st baseman or DH and a occasional catcher ...

Has flexibility  , let's see how he does this year in a full season of AAA  , no one picked him in the rule 5 draft so maybe he just might be a good player but not major league caliber  ...

[Shaitan]

When you say "interesting arms," I take it you don't mean "Minnesota interesting."

[jkcarew]

Cavaco is the poster child for “toolsy”. A red flag goes up every time I hear it, because the first thing I want to hear from an evaluator about a ‘true’ top prospect, is how promising the hit tool(s) are…regardless of how athletic the guy is. The hit tool trumps everything in Major League Baseball…by a mile, and now more than ever. Literally everyone questioned Cavaco’s hit tool when he was drafted in the top half of the 1st round. And now he’s a corner infielder. Sigh.