Be Wary of Michael Fulmer

[Ted Wiedmann]

He was the only player the Twins acquired at the trade deadline that was effective. He's also still a free agent, but he is not without red flags. 

 

Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. 

Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? 

Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. 

However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. 

Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. 

In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. 

The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. 

I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I guess I was one of those advocating for Fulmer. Now I have my doubts.

[Brandon]

With less movement on his Slider more of them may end up as strikes.  This lower walk rates.  But if contact is made on those pitches, will it be hard contact or soft?  I think he will be fine as a 6th or 7th man out of an 8 man bullpen. He may be declining but he should have a season or two left in his arm.

[miller761]

Wouldn't a final bullpen spot be good for a reliever who can throw multiple innings? Maybe a starting pitcher who does not make the rotation. He can then piggyback a short start without using multiple bullpen arms. He could do this 3 times in a 2 week period saving a lot of bullpen appearances.

[Major League Ready]

I am not so sure they will add anyone.  They added Lopez and will have Alcala back.  They may also move Ober to the BP.

[pierre75275]

I still think once they can put 40 man roster guys on the DL, they will sign a guy like Chafin, Moore, Hand or a Fulmer. 

If none of those guys are available I think the front office is comfortable rolling with what they have.

I also think that's why if Kep gets traded it will be for prospects or a comp round pick or both 

 

[Dman]

I never looked into Fulmer all that hard so this article is a bit of a wake up call for me.  Even last season I never thought he was a world beater and even with Detroit he had his flaws but he also was a veteran guy who seemed to get the job done.  I still wouldn't mind if the Twins signed him as there isn't a ton of difference making arms out there as it is and the Twins don't pay top dollar for relief arms.  I still think he would be a good depth signing but we will see if they go after him or not.

The Twins have some interesting young arms they could use in the pen in Moran, Henriquez, and Sands and Winder unless they choose to keep him on the starter track.  Still not a ton of depth IMO and there isn't much behind them unless they are converting starters to relievers.

Pen arms have a tendency to get hurt early in the season so I think a good depth signing is warranted but we will see what the front office thinks once those roster spots open up.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, miller761 said:

Wouldn't a final bullpen spot be good for a reliever who can throw multiple innings? Maybe a starting pitcher who does not make the rotation. He can then piggyback a short start without using multiple bullpen arms. He could do this 3 times in a 2 week period saving a lot of bullpen appearances.

For some reason this role doesn’t exist anymore. Joe Sheehan wrote about it in 2017. 

Last there were relievers that average more than 2 innings an outing(minimum 50 relief innings). Trevor Williams and Jamie Barría had the closest to a traditional low leverage long relief role. I think it is more important to have pitchers with options in the back end of the pen. Moran had several 2 inning stints and a 3 inning stint last year. After some of those outing the Twins were able to send him to St. Paul and bring up another arm.

Most relievers were originally starters. They are capable of throwing multiple innings. They just aren’t used that way any longer. Instead high leverage relievers throw maximum effort in shorter stints and the low leverage relievers are shuttled out to AAA after a multiple inning game.

Baseball is always shifting and we may see the long reliever make a return. Perhaps the Twins should be pioneering that effort.

[Beast]

I’m not any more concerned about Fulmer than I am guys Henriquez, Megill, Pagan, Sands, even Lopez.

Some of these metrics have to have some sort of predictive value.  Is Fulmer’s slider still better than some of the other bums in the roster despite losing an inch?  Do we care that Pagan or Megill’s pitches have some increment of more movement when we’ve seen time and time again they stink?

Not saying I do or do not believe in Fulmer.  But, it’s not like we have a full boat here.  I’ll welcome anyone who has shown they can get hitters out in recent history.  

 

[Althebum82]

Nice research.  Either his asking price is a bit steep or other teams are not willing to see past the potential downside that you point out, because I have not seen any chatter that anyone (including the Twins) is eagerly in pursuit of his services.

He certainly belongs in the majors someplace.  However, I confess to have more interest in seeing more innings from the pitchers already lined up as prospects in this franchise than to turn to Fullmer to take over those innings.

[terrydactyls]

Fulmer is Handy 

He Won't Cost a lot.

But Prospects are Dandy

So Use What You Got.

Burma Shave

 

 

[mnfireman]

Spring training signing after guys can be moved to the 60 day IL, if the team thinks they need him.

[Linus]

Is rather have Fulmer instead of Pagan or Megill. 

[DaveW44]

Can you elaborate on what systems are projecting the Twins as a top 5 bullpen? I’ve not heard that anywhere. 

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, miller761 said:

Wouldn't a final bullpen spot be good for a reliever who can throw multiple innings? Maybe a starting pitcher who does not make the rotation. He can then piggyback a short start without using multiple bullpen arms. He could do this 3 times in a 2 week period saving a lot of bullpen appearances.

If a starter predictably needs a long reliever there needs to be a different starter. 

Any reliever is only going to throw so many innings, with an upper limit of 80. Better to have flexibility than not. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

1 hour ago, DaveW44 said:

Can you elaborate on what systems are projecting the Twins as a top 5 bullpen? I’ve not heard that anywhere. 

They’re projected the 4th highest bullpen war on Fangraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

[CRF]

I'm a little surprised Fulmer is still out there, but I don't necessarily want him back. If he was so desirable, someone would have signed him by now. I'm guessing that our FO doesn't want him. 

[Jkeady12]

I will take Fulmer 100 times over Pagan! Anyone watching the Twins after tge 6th inning last year knows Fulmer was at least reliable , Pagan didn’t get a big out all season last year. Pagan must have incriminating  pictures of Falvey.

[Whitey333]

Fulmer would be 100% better than that stuff Pagan.  Pagan apparently has the stuff but his results over the past three years have been horrible.  Fulmer has decent history.  The Twins with the forth or fifth bullpen?  Let's get serious.  Our bullpen was a disaster last year and has not been greatly improved IMO.  Much of what Fan graphs says is very questionable at best.  I sat with the Twins philosophy of using the bullpen at least half of the game day in and day out demands a bullpen with depth, experience, and results.  For the Twins to contend, one of the big question marks is how will the bullpen hold up under all the heavy usage.  Didn't work out so great last year except for a couple guys that had great years.

[hitterscount]

If Rocco utilizes the starting rotation as he did last year there will never be enough bullpen arms. 

[Muppet]

13 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

For some reason this role doesn’t exist anymore. Joe Sheehan wrote about it in 2017. 

Last there were relievers that average more than 2 innings an outing(minimum 50 relief innings). Trevor Williams and Jamie Barría had the closest to a traditional low leverage long relief role. I think it is more important to have pitchers with options in the back end of the pen. Moran had several 2 inning stints and a 3 inning stint last year. After some of those outing the Twins were able to send him to St. Paul and bring up another arm.

Most relievers were originally starters. They are capable of throwing multiple innings. They just aren’t used that way any longer. Instead high leverage relievers throw maximum effort in shorter stints and the low leverage relievers are shuttled out to AAA after a multiple inning game.

Baseball is always shifting and we may see the long reliever make a return. Perhaps the Twins should be pioneering that effort.

If the Twins are going to stick with the plan of limiting starters to 3 times through the lineup/5 innings, they need to have relievers that can pitch 2-3 innings. They must have had their reasons for limiting starters, but they never seemed to figure out that bullpen games with shaky bullpens doesn't work out. How many times did they turn a 1-2 run lead into a blowout loss because they needed to piece the second half of the game together with tired or ineffective arms. 

All that said, I looked at Fulmer's past. 2020 was an interesting case. The Tigers had him start all 10 of his games and limited him to 3 innings in each game. While he almost always got through the first inning without giving up a run (the highest scoring inning in baseball), he often was still shellacked despite only throwing 3 innings per game (an 8.78 ERA). NOT the type of guy you want serving as that middle innings eater role. 

But he's at worst a mediocre pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of home runs (when he's not pitching for the Twins). Definitely worth having around the pen ... at least more so than others on the team named Pagan. 

[sun]

15 hours ago, pierre75275 said:

I still think once they can put 40 man roster guys on the DL, they will sign a guy like Chafin, Moore, Hand or a Fulmer. 

If none of those guys are available I think the front office is comfortable rolling with what they have.

I also think that's why if Kep gets traded it will be for prospects or a comp round pick or both 

 

FYI, MLB teams cannot trade draft picks. The NFL does but the MLB does not allow it.

[gman]

I also thought Fulmer had done better than his numbers were showing. I think we have a few guys who could match or better his numbers likely to start the year at St Paul.

I agree with the long relief role responses. I expect we see very few starters complete 6 innings this year. Which means an average of 4 relievers a game. Its better, I think, to have Ober or Winder pitch 2-3 innings in relief every 3-4 games then continue to burn out the bullpen.

[pierre75275]

1 hour ago, sun said:

FYI, MLB teams cannot trade draft picks. The NFL does but the MLB does not allow it.

Comp A and Comp B picks can be traded by MLB

[KBJ1]

I think his slider, when thrown well, is unhittable.  His high fastball also has a lot of movement.  Just needs to be disguised a little better.

Certainly better than Pagan.

[I wish the twins were good]

Chafin or Matt Moore sound better to me but I doubt they'll be willing to pay for either of those at this point (2 yrs ~15MM) I would guess.

[mikelink45]

Like others on this thread, I thought Fullmer was alright - by comparison to Pagan he was an all-star.  But he was not a lights out reliever and the league that is desperate for RP has passed on him.  If we sign him, fine, but don't think of it as a major acquisition.

[sun]

1 hour ago, pierre75275 said:

Comp A and Comp B picks can be traded by MLB

Thank you. I learned something new today. Apparently those picks can only be traded once, by the original team that the pick was awarded to. There's only 12 teams per year that receive them. 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-draft-picks

[Rosterman]

Fulmer vs. Pagan. Well, Pagan is cheaper.

Fulmer is one of maybe a half-dozen okay arms still on the market, most wanting to sign for the biggest bucks possible...but 40-man rosters seem pretty full right now. So will be interesting to see what happens.

There is a demand for high-paying quality relief pitching, BUT NOT BY ALL 30 TEAMS, it seems. So, some players will fall by the wayside.

The Twins have a pretty full roster. The only expendables are actually in the bullpen right now - Megill and Pagan stand out. (Of course, the Twins could have two roster spots open once they can place guys on the longterm disabled list).

The Twinsare also, seemingly, at the top of their payroll limit (although there shouldn't be such a cap if the Twins truly want to win). 

Yes, I would like to see one more solid arm added, so we don't ned to depend on Pagan, we can put Megill at AAA if not claimed on waivers, or maybe Alcala will need time to adjust to a fulltime schedule. Of course, we stiull have to worry about the durability of Duran, and is Moran truly ready to be a fulltime major league thrower, and is Thielbar still ageless.

Is Fulmer the answer? Depends totally on the price!

[DocBauer]

I admit to being a bit wary after reading the information in the OP. But I'm still interested if the $ isn't steep. He's got a live arm, is only 30yo, IIRC, and might even have a little upside in the pen as he's only being doing it for a about 1 1/2 years. And we're talking about a live arm for the 6th-7th and not necessarily a set-up guy.

While I am still OK with Fulmer, I have wondered if a LH to team with Thielbar might not be the best option, however. Moran still fits as a 3rd lefty, especially since he generally has reverse splits.