The Falvey Philosophies, Part 4: Please, Sir, Can I have Some More (Years)?

[Greggory Masterson]

An examination of the Twins roster in Derek Falvey's seventh year reveals four fundamental philosophies the organization has embraced. In our last chapter, we look at the organization's trend of trades for players with multiple years of team control.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

As opposed to their approach to free agency, the Twins have shown more flexibility in trading for players on longer deals, especially pitchers. Some of these "longer deals" are arbitration years, again mitigating risk, but Kenta Maeda had four years remaining on his deal (though it was an incentive-laden deal), and Sonny Gray had at least a buyout for 2023 if he broke down or didn't perform. 

It appears that the team vastly prefers making trades for players with team control, targeting those players over one-year or half-year rentals, which can explain some inaction on the trade market, especially around the trade deadline. 

The table below excludes some trades that were for very marginal players (including the most recent trade for six years of A.J. Alexy ) or players traded for cash, but I still kept Ildemaro Vargas in the table because I like typing his name.

As can be seen, very few of their trades have been for players in the final year of their contract. Michael Fulmer and Sergio Romo were deadline deals in which the Twins gave up marginal prospects, and the Twins signed Romo to a contract that offseason (and still could do the same with Fulmer this year). Jaime Garcia was hilariously flipped a week after he was acquired. Sandy Leon was a minor league veteran traded for another minor league veteran. Gary Sanchez was acquired to fill a hole at catcher, but also to offset the contract dump that sent Josh Donaldson to the Yankees, and he came to Minnesota with Gio Urshela, who had two years of control.

Other than those four deals that cost the Twins very little, every other trade for an MLB player brought back players with multiple years of team control. These types of deals are much more palatable to the team and are clearly their priority when trading for major league assets. 

They seem to not value a single year of team control as valuable enough to give up any of their top prospects, or most recently, Luis Arraez . As a bonus, the years under team control, whether through arbitration or contracts signed with their former teams, are often quite team-friendly.

Similarly, they work to sign current players to team-friendly contracts, though those are rarer, having only happened six times. Three of the current holdovers from Terry Ryan's time are only on the team because of extensions signed by the current brass. In 2019, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco signed five-year contracts with team options. Even if they did not work out, the total money devoted to the two was a low risk. The third holdover on an extension is Byron Buxton, who also signed a team-friendly deal at $15 million guaranteed over six years.

Most recently, the team signed Chris Paddack to a three-year extension for $12.5 million , hoping that he rebounds well from his second Tommy John surgery, another low-risk move given the money.

 The other two extensions look, in order, rough and laughable. Miguel Sano signed a three-year extension after his huge 2019 campaign with an option for 2023 that was declined. Randy Dobnak, who signed a five-year, $9 million extension with two team options. Much has been made about the move, though with an average of under $2 million per year, who cares?

So that's it. That's how the Twins have chosen to construct their rosters since 2017. It's fairly straightforward. Develop a team of young, cost-controlled talent, target veterans to when needed, trade for players with multiple years of team control, and fill in the rest of the holes with one-year deals, except in very specific circumstances. This approach leaves a good deal of flexibility in both monetary and prospect capital. However, it still has to work, and those assets need to be spent effectively. 

Seven years in, the group has a team and farm system completely of their own construction. They spent seven years creating space to take a big plunge, and now it's happened with Carlos Correa. Going forward, the club’s performance will be entirely dependent on moves made by the current regime.

Does anything stand out to you after having seen these transactions laid out? How do you feel about the way that Falvey and Levine have built this team?

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[mikelink45]

I found the article interesting, but it didn't really stir up any emotions for me.  Trying to figure out where MLB is going with contracts - both money and years - is really confusing.  I cannot relate to them.  

As far as building the team the weakness I see is how the team is handling its own pitcher development.  Relying on FA and a constant stream of trades just is not a good strategy in the long run.  Does it mean that we are all overvaluing the prospects and arms?  SWR, Varland, Ober, Winder, Balazovic all sounded like they have potential, but how do we use it? When do we get to see them show it?  Is Paddock really better than they are?  

In the BP we get Lopez and Pagan, but Sands and Henriquez are both nearly ready to break out  (I hope). 

Our internal extensions have some head scratching aspects.  Buxton looks like a great deal unless he breaks down.  Polanco was a good extension and I think we should have used his cost to trade him.  Kepler is not as good and the fact he has not been traded might mean other teams do not see real value in him either.  Sano was a bust and that is a real shame because the raw talent was there.  And Dobnak feels like a feel good story and good for him.  His salary might seem low in MLB, but elsewhere he is doing great and I do not expect to seem him on the Twins again.

[stringer bell]

What is obvious is that the Twins have a different take on top-shelf free agent pitching. They don’t compete in offers for the highest-priced arms meaning that the eternal search for an ace is limited to internal options and somehow undervalued arms. 
 

In their pitching acquisitions, the club has considered injury risk seemingly less than other organizations and has acquired a stable of pitchers with whom “injury risk” has to be in their bios. 

[Rosterman]

At what point do you do extensions and for how much. Say even a Buxton extension doesn't work out in the long-trerm. How many free agent contracts, like Bundy, Archer, Pineda, Gallo - do you sign for similar amounts that really don't work out, in the end.

Like Denard Span of yore, the contracts for Polanco and Kepler have worked out over the time given. Sano, except for spending last season injured, was okay. One could say that gambling the mutual for 2023 would've been as workable as giving the same amount of money to Gallo.

 

[Heiny]

It seems to me that the reason the Twins don't sign top FA pitchers is because the market has become so ridiculous for them.  The risk is extremely high for long term top end pitchers vs. the dollars they are receiving.  I agree with the way the FO is making these decisions.  Without researching this deeply, it seems to me that the long term deals for high cost FA pitchers are more often bad deals for the teams.  Trading for top prospect pitchers like Ryan and SWR makes more sense to me.  I also like the trade for P. Lopez.  Hoping he turns out to be a good value and extended for something like 3-5 years for reasonable money.  Similar to the Paddock deal.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

I also like the trade for P. Lopez.  Hoping he turns out to be a good value and extended for something like 3-5 years for reasonable money.  Similar to the Paddock dea

Are you expecting a 29 year old FA pitcher coming off of four years with a WAR of 2.8 or more to settle for a Paddock type deal? Lets be real if he pitches the next two years similiar or better than the last two he will be looking and getting Berrios, Gausman, Ray type money not some rinky dink 4 million dollars a year, maybe if he gets injured you could be looking at a one year deal worth north of 10 million.

[rv78]

Outside of Correa I don't see where the FO stuck their neck out to get a true difference maker. The extensions they gave to Kepler, Sano, and Dobnak were mistakes. Yes, I know hindsight makes it easy but they are the experts getting paid to do the job correctly. A mistake is a mistake. I think Polanco was the only correct one made. The verdict is still out on Paddack yet. One could argue that even extending Buxton was a huge risk considering his history, and it is not clear cut yet if that was the right move either. Sorry I just can't give credit to a part-time player when he is so fragile that gets hurt so often, just playing the game. 

"Seven years in, the group has a team and farm system completely of their own construction." 

With no Ace pitcher in the rotation. Maeda, Mahle, Ober, and even the newly acquired Lopez all with health concerns. An aging Gray that could have father-time catch him completely. Joe Ryan might be the only one of their 6 starters that doesn't have a health concern. 

An outfield of players that can't hit or stay healthy. Only Polanco, Correa, Miranda and Vazquez have shown they can hit for a decent average. They have a good bench with Gordon, Taylor, Farmer, and Jeffers but I have yet to see subs get a team to a Championship must less win it.

The bullpen outside of Duran is a huge question mark. Lopez could revert back completely to the usual Lopez not the all-star Lopez. Thielbar is 35 and could be at the end of his career. Jax, Megill and Coulombe are average at best. Moran is unproven. Alcala is an unknown at this point going forward. Pagan should be gone. Sorry, can't get excited about the team they have put together. It's there's. Now ownership needs to hold them accountable.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Greg for laying out a map work of how this FO operates. In how they maneuver through maintaining an economic balanced roster. It makes a lot of sense and I congratulate them, although some of their moves didn’t make sense . I also congratulate  them for making recent bold moves that makes a lot sense.

 I’m still wondering about their managerial philosophy.

 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Outside of Correa I don't see where the FO stuck their neck out to get a true difference maker. The extensions they gave to Kepler, Sano, and Dobnak were mistakes. Yes, I know hindsight makes it easy but they are the experts getting paid to do the job correctly. A mistake is a mistake. I think Polanco was the only correct one made. The verdict is still out on Paddack yet. One could argue that even extending Buxton was a huge risk considering his history, and it is not clear cut yet if that was the right move either. Sorry I just can't give credit to a part-time player when he is so fragile that gets hurt so often, just playing the game. 

"Seven years in, the group has a team and farm system completely of their own construction." 

With no Ace pitcher in the rotation. Maeda, Mahle, Ober, and even the newly acquired Lopez all with health concerns. An aging Gray that could have father-time catch him completely. Joe Ryan might be the only one of their 6 starters that doesn't have a health concern. 

An outfield of players that can't hit or stay healthy. Only Polanco, Correa, Miranda and Vazquez have shown they can hit for a decent average. They have a good bench with Gordon, Taylor, Farmer, and Jeffers but I have yet to see subs get a team to a Championship must less win it.

The bullpen outside of Duran is a huge question mark. Lopez could revert back completely to the usual Lopez not the all-star Lopez. Thielbar is 35 and could be at the end of his career. Jax, Megill and Coulombe are average at best. Moran is unproven. Alcala is an unknown at this point going forward. Pagan should be gone. Sorry, can't get excited about the team they have put together. It's there's. Now ownership needs to hold them accountable.

When it comes to the front office sticking their necks our, Josh Donaldson says 👋 hi.

[Brandon]

I have one other method that was missed.  I am going to write a blog post on it.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like this approach.  Our talent was so slim that it took 7-years to build up the MLB team and obtain talent in the minors ready to come up to help.

We have finally gotten past picking up starting pitchers off of the heap pile (e.g. Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy, Archer) and now have a pretty solid starting staff.  We also have some good everyday players with more coming.

Lastly, they did all this while building up the financial flexibility such that they could ink CC4.

I really believe they know what they are doing and we are on the cusp of success with a multiple-year competitive window.

[gunnarthor]

I think generally this FO has done a bad job of making trades, constructing a pitching staff or keeping the competitive window open.

This idea - "Develop a team of young, cost-controlled talent, target veterans to when needed, trade for players with multiple years of team control, and fill in the rest of the holes with one-year deals, except in very specific circumstances" - isn't mind blowing. It's the blueprint Terry Ryan invented. The problem is that Falvine haven't been able to do anything close to what the Twins did in the 2000s, despite having financial resources, draft rules, and a stronger international presence that should make it easier.

[nclahammer]

Great insight with this series on the Falvey philosophy.

[weitz41]

As a whole I like the way they're building the team. Do I like every move. Nope, but overall to me most feel like a move in the right direction.

Trading for players with an injury history is worrisome. Then I look at the Rangers paying $17 mil for Eovaldi for 2023 season..Same or worse injury history.. Lopez and Mahle will cost $12.9 mil

A contract extension or two for the guys they've traded for would make me like their approach much more and I need at least one of their draft picks to develop into an all star. 

I'm not 100% on board with this FO and the way they're building the team.

[dxpavelka]

Let's not forget that Jaimie Garcia had more wins in one start as a Twin in 2017 than he did in eight as a Yankee.......

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I think generally this FO has done a bad job of making trades, constructing a pitching staff or keeping the competitive window open.

This idea - "Develop a team of young, cost-controlled talent, target veterans to when needed, trade for players with multiple years of team control, and fill in the rest of the holes with one-year deals, except in very specific circumstances" - isn't mind blowing. It's the blueprint Terry Ryan invented. The problem is that Falvine haven't been able to do anything close to what the Twins did in the 2000s, despite having financial resources, draft rules, and a stronger international presence that should make it easier.

I would describe the results to this point as pretty good but not great.  Compare what was supported here.  People are still complaining about Rosario and he has literally been one of the worst OFers in MLB.  People went nuts over Berrios and as of this moment that looks like a very good trade.  We can argue if they should have ever signed Donaldson but they did a great job moving on when many here were critical and said they could afford to keep him.  Ryan and Duran for rentals were great trades.  They got burned on pitchers who were hurt right after coming here but that's not exactly an unusual occurrence in MLB.

They blew a couple first rounders.  Sabato and Cavaco were horrible picks.  They have done a good job of constructing a staff that bridges the gap to their prospect pipeline.  We still don't know how that's going to turn out.  That competitive window will be heavily impacted by their success or lack thereof.  The position players look like they will provide their part to a competitive window to me.  Correa / Buxton / Miranda / Kirilloff / Lewis / Lee / Julien / Rodriquez / Larnach and Wallner should provide a good core.  

[h2oface]

So  #3 is 1 year wonders, and #4 multiple years of control.

Hmmm. Don't tell them that they contradict each other. Maybe they are confused. It surely is confusing me. Maybe I am just confused.

[jmlease1]

I think this is right in terms of what the front office's philosophy is generally in making trades. They're not looking to deal prospects for rentals because they know they have to be judicious when they send out prospect capital. developing talent internally is always going to be important to the long-term success of the franchise. I think they want long-term sustained success too, not sudden success followed by rapid tear downs.

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

So  #3 is 1 year wonders, and #4 multiple years of control.

Hmmm. Don't tell them that they contradict each other. Maybe they are confused. It surely is confusing me. Maybe I am just confused.

I don't think it is a contradiction: they often look to supplement the roster with veterans on 1 year deals (or 1 year with a team option, etc) in free agency. With trades, they generally don't send out prospects for rentals, but for players that can help immediately (in theory) and for at least another year. The Correa move was highly unusual i terms of signing a free agent to a long-term deal, but at the same time, it sort of falls into the bucket of "extending our own guys", where they are more willing to go long term on players they already know.

The Donaldson deal was a bit of an aberration; they had money to spend, a hole to fill, and took a risk on a player in free agency because they looked at the team and tried to capitalize on a window. Coming off a 101 win season, it made sense.

I think it's important to realize that while this FO had some patterns and principles that they adhere to, they're not dogmatic about it either. there will be exceptions if they think they can find value or an advantage for the team.

[jimbo92107]

Looks like they're putting together a beast of a slightly better than average team. 

[Blyleven2011]

23 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I found the article interesting, but it didn't really stir up any emotions for me.  Trying to figure out where MLB is going with contracts - both money and years - is really confusing.  I cannot relate to them.  

As far as building the team the weakness I see is how the team is handling its own pitcher development.  Relying on FA and a constant stream of trades just is not a good strategy in the long run.  Does it mean that we are all overvaluing the prospects and arms?  SWR, Varland, Ober, Winder, Balazovic all sounded like they have potential, but how do we use it? When do we get to see them show it?  Is Paddock really better than they are?  

In the BP we get Lopez and Pagan, but Sands and Henriquez are both nearly ready to break out  (I hope). 

Our internal extensions have some head scratching aspects.  Buxton looks like a great deal unless he breaks down.  Polanco was a good extension and I think we should have used his cost to trade him.  Kepler is not as good and the fact he has not been traded might mean other teams do not see real value in him either.  Sano was a bust and that is a real shame because the raw talent was there.  And Dobnak feels like a feel good story and good for him.  His salary might seem low in MLB, but elsewhere he is doing great and I do not expect to seem him on the Twins again.

Very well said Mike ...

[gunnarthor]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would describe the results to this point as pretty good but not great.  Compare what was supported here.  People are still complaining about Rosario and he has literally been one of the worst OFers in MLB.  People went nuts over Berrios and as of this moment that looks like a very good trade.  We can argue if they should have ever signed Donaldson but they did a great job moving on when many here were critical and said they could afford to keep him.  Ryan and Duran for rentals were great trades.  They got burned on pitchers who were hurt right after coming here but that's not exactly an unusual occurrence in MLB.

They blew a couple first rounders.  Sabato and Cavaco were horrible picks.  They have done a good job of constructing a staff that bridges the gap to their prospect pipeline.  We still don't know how that's going to turn out.  That competitive window will be heavily impacted by their success or lack thereof.  The position players look like they will provide their part to a competitive window to me.  Correa / Buxton / Miranda / Kirilloff / Lewis / Lee / Julien / Rodriquez / Larnach and Wallner should provide a good core.  

I didn't have a problem with them letting Rosario go, although I liked him a lot and I know others really missed him. Same with Sano. The Berrios trade was good but the reason why we could do it - because we stunk - is a red flag on the FO's ability to keep a window of contention open. Berrios had a bad season (although fWAR liked him more than bWAR) but I do think he's a good pitcher and will bounce back. But I also think Martin is the type of hitter the Twins need more of - good contact, good walk guy. 

The first major job this FO had was simple - augment the group they inherited so they could win in the post-season and extend that groups window of opportunity. They failed at both. 

Now, their job is to reopen a window of opportunity while Buxton and Correa are still in their primes. I don't think they've constructed a pitching staff that will let them do it. I hope I'm wrong. I like this lineup more than most on TD do - honestly, a few fairly possible things break right and this is a top 5 offense. But I hate this pitching staff. 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

The first major job this FO had was simple - augment the group they inherited so they could win in the post-season and extend that groups window of opportunity. They failed at both. 

I think the first job this FO had was to modernize the research department, then start rebuilding the farm system. The group they inherited over-achieved the first season of this regime. the 2019 club looked pretty great (minor illusion on the juiced ball it seems), but was a pretty different team already...and was better than the Molitor versions. I think they did try to augment what they had in that squad (adding Donaldson & Maeda, for example) but it didn't happen. Maybe because of COVID, maybe because they made the wrong moves...but I don't think they assessed the 2017 team all that incorrectly. A rotation counting on Mejia, Colon, and Hector Santiago?

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I didn't have a problem with them letting Rosario go, although I liked him a lot and I know others really missed him. Same with Sano. The Berrios trade was good but the reason why we could do it - because we stunk - is a red flag on the FO's ability to keep a window of contention open. Berrios had a bad season (although fWAR liked him more than bWAR) but I do think he's a good pitcher and will bounce back. But I also think Martin is the type of hitter the Twins need more of - good contact, good walk guy. 

The first major job this FO had was simple - augment the group they inherited so they could win in the post-season and extend that groups window of opportunity. They failed at both. 

Now, their job is to reopen a window of opportunity while Buxton and Correa are still in their primes. I don't think they've constructed a pitching staff that will let them do it. I hope I'm wrong. I like this lineup more than most on TD do - honestly, a few fairly possible things break right and this is a top 5 offense. But I hate this pitching staff. 

Where we differ is that I don't believe the group they inherited was good enough to be "augmented" into a serious contender.  That group had one year where they performed and the FO did a great job of augmenting that team.  They were a good team but not a serious contender.  They never had nearly enough pitching.  The only way that group could have been augmented into serious contention would have been to gut the farm system.

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Where we differ is that I don't believe the group they inherited was good enough to be "augmented" into a serious contender.  That group had one year where they performed and the FO did a great job of augmenting that team.  They were a good team but not a serious contender.  They never had nearly enough pitching.  The only way that group could have been augmented into serious contention would have been to gut the farm system.

They inherited a number of guys that they thought were worth extending - Sano, Polanco, Kepler. Two more signed solid 100m+ contracts - Buxton and Berrios. Gibson and Rosario got multiyear deals on playoff teams. They were given a pen that had Pressly, May, and Rogers which seems like a nice starting point. (Did May get hurt)? They had a system with guys like Garver, Arraez, Kiriloff, Baddoo, etc. The FO couldn't do anything with that. Now, we're arguably in a worse point.

They've constantly shown they can't acquire pitching. I don't think we should expect much improvement. I hope I'm wrong but I suspect we will have another season of the pitching staff failing to hold up.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

They inherited a number of guys that they thought were worth extending - Sano, Polanco, Kepler. Two more signed solid 100m+ contracts - Buxton and Berrios. Gibson and Rosario got multiyear deals on playoff teams. They were given a pen that had Pressly, May, and Rogers which seems like a nice starting point. (Did May get hurt)? They had a system with guys like Garver, Arraez, Kiriloff, Baddoo, etc. The FO couldn't do anything with that. Now, we're arguably in a worse point.

They've constantly shown they can't acquire pitching. I don't think we should expect much improvement. I hope I'm wrong but I suspect we will have another season of the pitching staff failing to hold up.

They have shown they can't acquire pitching?  Ryan / Duran / Alcala / Maeda / Gray / Mahle / Odorizzi and Lopez.  IDK if they can draft pitching but they can definitely acquire it.

Why would you attempt to define their value in the contracts they received?  We have the actual results which clearly show they were not good enough.  Sano and Rosario regressed badly.  Garver has a career WAR of 6.6 and 3.9 came in 2019.  Gibson was never better than a 4 when he was here and IDK why you would even mention Baddoo.  May has had 1 season where he reached 1 WAR and that was 2015.  How is this a core that we should have built a contender around? 

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

They have shown they can't acquire pitching?  Ryan / Duran / Alcala / Maeda / Gray / Mahle / Odorizzi and Lopez.  IDK if they can draft pitching but they can definitely acquire it.

 

This is where you and I differ. I think folks forget a lot of the bad. We had Odorizzi for three seasons and he amassed 5 WAR. That's not a great return on 33.5. Maeda had 11 starts that everyone raves about but ignores that he has given us 2 WAR in 32 starts. That's fine but that's a back end starter. Sonny Gray, one year, 2.5 WAR. Mahle, injured. Alcala will be 27 next year and in four seasons hasn't amassed 1 WAR. Duran is a nice arm, very happy. And Ryan is a back-end starter. Good trade,

But you also left off quite a bit - Lance Lynn, Addison Reed (17m!), Sam Dyson, Martin Perez, Dylan Bundy, Joe Smith, Chris Archer, Jamie Garcia (for Ynoa), Pineda (three years were slightly less valuable than three years of Odo), Happ (8m), Bailey (7m), Shoemaker. Honestly, I'm not sure if you add up the value of the pitchers we signed/traded for under this FO if it would be A) a positive number or 2) higher than the value of players we've just released or traded away to get those crappy pitchers. 

People aren't recognizing how bad pitching has been under this FO. fWAR ranks over the last ten years:

2013 - 24th
2014 - 14th
2015 - 11th
2016 - 23rd 
2017 - 24th
2018 - 22nd
2019 - 4th
2020 - COVID
2021 - 25th 
2022 - 20th - and this staff had Gray, Ryan, Duran, Alcala and  Mahle on it. 

bWAR are probably pretty similar but slightly worse, That list doesn't suggest that this FO can put together a pitching staff. If I put in WAR values, it actually looks worse. For example, the 2016 and 2022 teams amassed the same WAR - 10.7 but, by ranking, you'd think 2022 staff was better.

[GeorgiaBaller]

The Twins follow the Tampa Bay model---except the Rays have better prospects to fill the holes on a consistent basis (ie a better scouting organization).  Bullpen arms are expendable and have to be moved on a regular basis----and retooled midway through the season as the heavy workers early are usually not as effective late in the season and into the playoffs . Every successful playoff team does that.

Maybe this year will be different, but the feeder organization from the minors has not been filled with high upside players and not developed the talent well.  Twins also need to identify and cut loose players that have a bent toward regular injury.  Some guys are just not durable---every player in the majors can talk to you about 3 guys each they knew that was an unbelievable talent, but couldn't keep it together and stay on the field so they never made it.  Makes me very concerned about Royce Lewis, Kirillof, Larnach and their future in the org.

Developing pitching has been a big blindspot that the Twins have not been able to solve at all for a decade.  Until that gets figured out, they cannot be a team that competes in the playoffs.

I am pleased to see the team shore up Defense this off season---3rd and 1st remain the unproven spots right now---we will have to see who is healthy and how much Miranda developed his glove and range in the off-season.  

 

[Major League Ready]

49 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

This is where you and I differ. I think folks forget a lot of the bad. We had Odorizzi for three seasons and he amassed 5 WAR. That's not a great return on 33.5. Maeda had 11 starts that everyone raves about but ignores that he has given us 2 WAR in 32 starts. That's fine but that's a back end starter. Sonny Gray, one year, 2.5 WAR. Mahle, injured. Alcala will be 27 next year and in four seasons hasn't amassed 1 WAR. Duran is a nice arm, very happy. And Ryan is a back-end starter. Good trade,

But you also left off quite a bit - Lance Lynn, Addison Reed (17m!), Sam Dyson, Martin Perez, Dylan Bundy, Joe Smith, Chris Archer, Jamie Garcia (for Ynoa), Pineda (three years were slightly less valuable than three years of Odo), Happ (8m), Bailey (7m), Shoemaker. Honestly, I'm not sure if you add up the value of the pitchers we signed/traded for under this FO if it would be A) a positive number or 2) higher than the value of players we've just released or traded away to get those crappy pitchers. 

People aren't recognizing how bad pitching has been under this FO. fWAR ranks over the last ten years:

2013 - 24th
2014 - 14th
2015 - 11th
2016 - 23rd 
2017 - 24th
2018 - 22nd
2019 - 4th
2020 - COVID
2021 - 25th 
2022 - 20th - and this staff had Gray, Ryan, Duran, Alcala and  Mahle on it. 

bWAR are probably pretty similar but slightly worse, That list doesn't suggest that this FO can put together a pitching staff. If I put in WAR values, it actually looks worse. For example, the 2016 and 2022 teams amassed the same WAR - 10.7 but, by ranking, you'd think 2022 staff was better.

I agree they have not been good but I also feel they are in pretty decent shape today.  They don't have a legit ace but they are very deep in quality pitching. The inherited a lack of pitching and a team in the bottom half of revenue has to get extremely lucky to fix that in free agency.  I don't blame them for what they inherited. I don't blame them for Maeda's injury.  It was a good trade.  I also don't think you a being fair on Odorizzi.  They got 6.8 bWAR in 2018-19.  They gave him a qualifying offer for the Covid year (2020) and he pitched 13 innings which of course amassed no WAR.  They paid about 1/3 of that qualifying offer so they got 6.8 WAR for roughly $22M not $33.5M.  A little over $3M per WAR is a bargain.  Plus, they must have gotten a comp round pick, right?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

The Twins follow the Tampa Bay model---except the Rays have better prospects to fill the holes on a consistent basis (ie a better scouting organization).  Bullpen arms are expendable and have to be moved on a regular basis----and retooled midway through the season as the heavy workers early are usually not as effective late in the season and into the playoffs . Every successful playoff team does that.

Maybe this year will be different, but the feeder organization from the minors has not been filled with high upside players and not developed the talent well.  Twins also need to identify and cut loose players that have a bent toward regular injury.  Some guys are just not durable---every player in the majors can talk to you about 3 guys each they knew that was an unbelievable talent, but couldn't keep it together and stay on the field so they never made it.  Makes me very concerned about Royce Lewis, Kirillof, Larnach and their future in the org.

Developing pitching has been a big blindspot that the Twins have not been able to solve at all for a decade.  Until that gets figured out, they cannot be a team that competes in the playoffs.

I am pleased to see the team shore up Defense this off season---3rd and 1st remain the unproven spots right now---we will have to see who is healthy and how much Miranda developed his glove and range in the off-season.  

 

True but people keep saying this without actually looking at how the Rays acquired their high performing players.  Take a look at the 2019 and 2021 Rays players that produced over 1.5 WAR.  50% of the 2019 WAR and 46% of the WAR in 2021 was produced by players acquired by trading established players for prospects.  Prospects defined as players that had never previously produced 1.5 WAR in a season.  Only 25% was produced by drafted players in 2019 and only 21% in 2021.  They actually got 29% from free agents in 2019.  The difference in the Rays is that they do a great job trading established players in a similar fashion to what the twins did with Berrios and Arraez.  It's easier to identify good prospects when they have 2 or 3 years of professional baseball under their belt.  We shall see if those trades provide similar value for the twins.

Cleveland is a similar story.