How the Twins Addressed Their Biggest Weaknesses from 2022 This Offseason

[DocBauer]

I TRY not to respond initially when moves are made...work helps with that, LOL...as I want to remove the "fan" in me and try to be the best "logical" amateur GM I can be. I don't like every move made, or not made, thus far in the offseason. But by and large, I have to say, I see the "method of madness" in just about every move made so far and can't help but like what's been done.

1] HOWEVER Correa ended up in Minnesota, it solidified the SS spot, changed the entire complextion of the team, and suddenly gave free reign to the movement of high, young talent to play and contribute throughout the roster now and the next few years. Correa is not a new addition, but he adds so much, and offers up so much more flexibility. 

2] Arraez being moved HURTS, as a fan, and questions about replacing him. The timing stinks because as I've stated previously, SOMEONE good was going to be moved NOW, or next offseason. The timing stinks because the best replacements for what he brings offensively don't appear ready yet. But you can't get something without giving up something.

3] My knee jerk reaction to Gallo was filled with angst. Period. I'm still not sure I would have gone that route. His 2022 was a nightmare. Period. But if you take a step back and actually look at his career you will see some VERY INTERESTING numbers. He became a full time ML ballplayer in 2017. (I'm deliberately ignoring the position/defensive debate). From 2017 to 2021, five ML seasons, the abbreviated 2020 season, for whatever reason and weirdness, was his worst year. But over that 5yrs, even including the poor 2020, his quadruple slash line is impressive!

.209/ .337/ .493/ .830 with an AVERAGE HR total of 30 dingers even including the short and not very good 2020.

Knock the BA all you want...and it isn't good to be sure...but the OB, the SLG, the OPS, the HR numbers just can't be denied. An .830 OPS is pretty damn good, however you achieve it. His DOWNFALL, was the trade to NY in 2021. He hasn't produced the same since then, through 2022. So either he just suddenly lost it, or he just didn't fit it, never felt comfortable, lost his confidence, whatever, etc. But his numbers are there for anyone to take the time to look at. The FO is banking on the "Texas" version of Gallo in 2023 with a change of scenery vs the 1 1/2 of NY and LA to provide offense, solid to better defense, and maybe be a bridge for the young talent. Again, not my favorite move, but I see now what they are doing.

4] LOVE the Vazquez signing as a high quality catcher with a solid bat. Reminds me so much of the Castro signing to help the staff and work with Garver, and alleviate some pressure. Won't again re-state my opinions on Jeffers, but at still only 25yo, and with legitimate STICK potential, Jeffers has 500+ ML AB and potential. I see a parallel here.

5] Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, and the depth of SWR and Varland beyond those 6 is pretty great. Nick merely mentioned Dobnak as a possible surprise contributor. It might happen. It might not. Why so much angst given to a guy who was pretty good as a backend option before his finger injury? He was pretty solid previously. The rotation depth is the best in years. Much better than the start of 2022. The rotation is FAR better today than 2022.

6] I still think the Twins should be grabbing someone to enhance the PEN. I think Lopez will be just fine. He's probably not as outstanding as he was with the Orioles, but is better than he showed after the trade. His stuff is too good, A fully healthy Alacala, building on his 2nd half of 2021, could make a huge difference. Moran has a lot of potential. But if the FO really wants to make a difference, there are still a handful of solid BP arms out there to add, and not just trust in young arms to be ready. I'm still surprised Fulmer hasn't been brought on board. Chafin and Hand are still out there as well if they'd prefer to add a LH option. Or maybe add 2 arms? The payroll is sitting about $150M, give or take. Right now, they are missing opportunity. 

7] I'd take Farmer over Urshela for versatility sake.

8] Taylor was NOT the direction for an OF I initially thought of. But I love the addition. Great defense, speed, a completely average hitter, but also a legitimate CF/OF defensive option.

HAS THE FO BUILT A BETTER TEAM TODAY THAN 2022:

YES. The rotation and bullpen are better, with depth. The defense looks strong, with the agreed on Miranda proving himself at 3B and AK being ready at 1B, and early accounts saying he's fine with "natural" soreness from rehabbing and getting his swings in. Is catching and defense better overall? Yes.

Should the Twins be done? I'd say NO. They've done a good job. But unless they are just CERTAIN about a few question marks, go out and grab a BP arm, or two. The payroll is only $150M ish. STOP being foolish about Pagan, and learn from previous lessons. Move him or DFA for for Fulmer or similar. I don't think they are done yet, but I like most of what they have done to this point. 

 

[cHawk]

Let’s hope the depth we’ve built will be enough. Injuries went through our roster like a hot knife through butter last year.

[TopGunn#22]

Great article Nick!!  I have been very critical of this Twins Front office in back to back years, complaining that they seemingly approached each off season either without a plan or a slave to a specific priority and thus chained to inaction while mid-level FA's that could have been a good fit flew off the board.

However, I think this has been by far their BEST off season and while there was some luck involved with Correa this F.O. displayed patience and resolve as the Correa situation evolved and eventually came out the winner.  I could nitpick and say that Adam Duval would have been the RH bat counter to Gallo but I won't.  There are still "ifs" that need to pan out, primarily the health of Buxton and Correa, Kirilloff and Larnach, and just about everybody on the pitching staff, but This F.O has built a team with a LOT more depth and better options to begin spring training and with a pipeline that includes Royce Lewis, Eduard Julien and Brooks Lee there could be impact bats that augment the lineup at some point this season.  

I still don't think the Twins are done either.  I'd like to take a flyer on Alex Reyes, the quintessential "boom or bust" arm in a bullpen and I still think Kepler gets traded before spring training.  It could be a fun baseball season in the upper midwest.  

[Riverbrian]

17 hours ago, Trov said:

When you look at Gallo and his defense, looking just at defensive WAR is a poor way to judge his overall defense.  First, the name itself is above replacement, meaning you are judging him to the average defender.  So by definition, having a positive WAR makes him above average.  Where he was been above average on defense is right field mainly.  When you look at his seasons playing RF, he is actually the majority of his dWAR.  The early part of his career he was playing 3rd, where he had negative defense, hence the move to OF.  When you compare him to other well known or regarded defending right fielders, he is on par with them.  For the most part even the best defensive right fielders are still only a plus 1 to 2 dWAR in any given season.  Left field is similar.  It is the CF that makes a huge difference in dWAR.  However, I think dWAR for an outfielder is hard to really quantify.  

Think about it, how do you really measure it?  When a guy guns someone out do we give them a plus .1?  What happens if no one runs on them because their arm is too good?  Does that get you any plus or since no one tried we really cannot quatify?  How about throwing to wrong base allowing a guy to advance do we give a negative .1 for that?  

I think most of what BR for dWAR looks into for it is range and the like, if you look at how they measure it that seems to be the way they go, as it is based on defensive runs saved, and zone rating, two different metrics.  I believe they do not look a ton at the little things a guy can do for defense.  No one is saying Gallo is a super high all time defender, but when you compare him to many others, he is better than most.  

His strike outs are an issue, but he still walks a ton, it is not like he is just up there 3 pitches sit back on the bench. 

It's good to question these things.

Let's look at three guys who played a similar amount of games in 2022, didn't play much and hit terribly when they rarely played.  

Jermaine Palacios 25 games - OPS+ 19

bWAR -0.7

Miguel Sano 29 Games - OPS+ 3

bWAR -0.8 

Mark Contreras 27 Games - OPS+ 24

bWar - 0.0

What did Mark Contreras do in those 49 defensive chances in the OF (less than 2 a game) to avoid the negative dash in front of his bWAR number? Was it one catch in a low probability zone? Was it seven catches in a low probability zone? 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

17 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't think the Twins have done enough to fix the pitching staff to be a better than .500 team. But, just like last year, I like the offense. I liked the Arraez trade. I think we have some nice trade chips at the deadline that will help us in the future. But this team is too far away right now. And we have zero depth. 

I feel 100% the opposite. I worry about the offense. I am happy with the pitching. 

It's got to be hard for the front office to please both of us simultaneously. 😄

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I TRY not to respond initially when moves are made...work helps with that, LOL...as I want to remove the "fan" in me and try to be the best "logical" amateur GM I can be. I don't like every move made, or not made, thus far in the offseason. But by and large, I have to say, I see the "method of madness" in just about every move made so far and can't help but like what's been done.

1] HOWEVER Correa ended up in Minnesota, it solidified the SS spot, changed the entire complextion of the team, and suddenly gave free reign to the movement of high, young talent to play and contribute throughout the roster now and the next few years. Correa is not a new addition, but he adds so much, and offers up so much more flexibility. 

2] Arraez being moved HURTS, as a fan, and questions about replacing him. The timing stinks because as I've stated previously, SOMEONE good was going to be moved NOW, or next offseason. The timing stinks because the best replacements for what he brings offensively don't appear ready yet. But you can't get something without giving up something.

3] My knee jerk reaction to Gallo was filled with angst. Period. I'm still not sure I would have gone that route. His 2022 was a nightmare. Period. But if you take a step back and actually look at his career you will see some VERY INTERESTING numbers. He became a full time ML ballplayer in 2017. (I'm deliberately ignoring the position/defensive debate). From 2017 to 2021, five ML seasons, the abbreviated 2020 season, for whatever reason and weirdness, was his worst year. But over that 5yrs, even including the poor 2020, his quadruple slash line is impressive!

.209/ .337/ .493/ .830 with an AVERAGE HR total of 30 dingers even including the short and not very good 2020.

Knock the BA all you want...and it isn't good to be sure...but the OB, the SLG, the OPS, the HR numbers just can't be denied. An .830 OPS is pretty damn good, however you achieve it. His DOWNFALL, was the trade to NY in 2021. He hasn't produced the same since then, through 2022. So either he just suddenly lost it, or he just didn't fit it, never felt comfortable, lost his confidence, whatever, etc. But his numbers are there for anyone to take the time to look at. The FO is banking on the "Texas" version of Gallo in 2023 with a change of scenery vs the 1 1/2 of NY and LA to provide offense, solid to better defense, and maybe be a bridge for the young talent. Again, not my favorite move, but I see now what they are doing.

4] LOVE the Vazquez signing as a high quality catcher with a solid bat. Reminds me so much of the Castro signing to help the staff and work with Garver, and alleviate some pressure. Won't again re-state my opinions on Jeffers, but at still only 25yo, and with legitimate STICK potential, Jeffers has 500+ ML AB and potential. I see a parallel here.

5] Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, and the depth of SWR and Varland beyond those 6 is pretty great. Nick merely mentioned Dobnak as a possible surprise contributor. It might happen. It might not. Why so much angst given to a guy who was pretty good as a backend option before his finger injury? He was pretty solid previously. The rotation depth is the best in years. Much better than the start of 2022. The rotation is FAR better today than 2022.

6] I still think the Twins should be grabbing someone to enhance the PEN. I think Lopez will be just fine. He's probably not as outstanding as he was with the Orioles, but is better than he showed after the trade. His stuff is too good, A fully healthy Alacala, building on his 2nd half of 2021, could make a huge difference. Moran has a lot of potential. But if the FO really wants to make a difference, there are still a handful of solid BP arms out there to add, and not just trust in young arms to be ready. I'm still surprised Fulmer hasn't been brought on board. Chafin and Hand are still out there as well if they'd prefer to add a LH option. Or maybe add 2 arms? The payroll is sitting about $150M, give or take. Right now, they are missing opportunity. 

7] I'd take Farmer over Urshela for versatility sake.

8] Taylor was NOT the direction for an OF I initially thought of. But I love the addition. Great defense, speed, a completely average hitter, but also a legitimate CF/OF defensive option.

HAS THE FO BUILT A BETTER TEAM TODAY THAN 2022:

YES. The rotation and bullpen are better, with depth. The defense looks strong, with the agreed on Miranda proving himself at 3B and AK being ready at 1B, and early accounts saying he's fine with "natural" soreness from rehabbing and getting his swings in. Is catching and defense better overall? Yes.

Should the Twins be done? I'd say NO. They've done a good job. But unless they are just CERTAIN about a few question marks, go out and grab a BP arm, or two. The payroll is only $150M ish. STOP being foolish about Pagan, and learn from previous lessons. Move him or DFA for for Fulmer or similar. I don't think they are done yet, but I like most of what they have done to this point. 

 

Great post Doc. Thanks.

[jmlease1]

Need to be more specific when you say you don't trust "Lopez": Pablo or Jorge?

I think the people who are so down on Jeffers value need to look at the league a little more broadly: the position is a little thin and there aren't that many teams that have 2 quality catchers. He may not have a great arm, but he does well enough blocking the plate & receiving the ball. Adding Vazquez means we have 2 quality catchers and it's an improvement on the Jeffers/Sanchez/Leon group, since Leon can't hit at all and Sanchez never found his power stroke. figuring out catching depth was a big question after last season and it's hard to say they didn't address it. No, they don't have anyone in the system that's going to be competing for time soon, but Jeffers is under team control for another few years, vazquez is signed for 4 years, so there's time to work on the next generation.

SS had to get addressed since Royce won't be available until midseason, and they were able to bring back Correa. Done and done. Farmer is a nice backup with positional flexibility. For the first time in a long time, we don't have to wonder who will play SS for the next several years. 

I felt like they had depth in the rotation, but needed top end improvement. It's an interesting question as to whether P. Lopez gets there. If he's first half PL, then he definitely passes the "Better Than Sonny Gray" test. If he's second half PL, then...doesn't look like it. So I have to say they did better to make the rotation deeper and more...injury resistant? 

I don't think they've addressed our weakness against LHP particularly well; the Gallo move isn't where I wanted them to go in the OF, though his career splits aren't bad against LHP. Farmer helps, but it might be asking a lot. Having Garlick be depth in AAA rather than needing to be counted on all season is good, and better health generally will help.

The bullpen looks a bit better than the start of last season: we know what Duran can do, rather than hope it'll work. Jax showed he could be effective too, and Jorge Lopez certainly has the ability and will likely be better not having to deal with being traded. Thielbar is proven, Moran is talented, and thank god we're not counting on Pagan to be a major contributor. If Alcala gets healthy it looks pretty strong, though I wish they had another guy who could consistently throw 2 innings every 2-3 days. And I really wish they hadn't kept Pagan. Talking themselves into "fixing" him feels like sunk cost fallacy to me, but overall the bullpen looks ok.

I think they made several moves that tried to raise the floor and address depth, and that matters. I tend to agree with the Falvey/Levine philosophy of trying to give as few ABs and innings to bad players as possible. I thought they should have looked to move Kepler (especially after adding Gallo), but I definitely agree with the idea of not having to reach so far down into the minors that you're playing your 10th choice in the OF...especially when the 8th or 9th choice is out there too. (hell, the twins got all the way down to 12th pick when they sent Beckham out there and grabbed Billy Hamilton off the street)

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Is Archer a possibility for the bullpen?  Would he accept that role?  IDK....but he seems like a guy at this point in his career that could be valuable throwing an inning or two in relief.  He seemed to do well the first time through the batting order and than his stuff would go away.  It would seem his fastball velo might tick up a bit if he knew he was only throwing an inning.  His FB/Slider combo seems more suited for the bullpen anyway.   Finally, he seemed to be a really sharp guy who got along well in the clubhouse.  Just a thought.  

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Is Archer a possibility for the bullpen?  Would he accept that role?  IDK....but he seems like a guy at this point in his career that could be valuable throwing an inning or two in relief.  He seemed to do well the first time through the batting order and than his stuff would go away.  It would seem his fastball velo might tick up a bit if he knew he was only throwing an inning.  His FB/Slider combo seems more suited for the bullpen anyway.   Finally, he seemed to be a really sharp guy who got along well in the clubhouse.  Just a thought.  

I'm not sure he could hold up there either. With his hip and other injuries I just don't see him as a guy who can sit out in the bullpen and then fairly quickly get ready to pitch.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

11 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm not sure he could hold up there either. With his hip and other injuries I just don't see him as a guy who can sit out in the bullpen and then fairly quickly get ready to pitch.

That's a real possibility.....hadn't heard if the hip was a chronic thing or not. His arm seemed to hold up pretty well.

[Aerodeliria]

I will remain highly critical of the Arraez trade. I think it is one of the riskiest trades the Twins have--maybe the worst since the Pressley debacle. Of course, I could be wrong, but there are gambles that are far less risky than trading away probably the hitter with the best eye in baseball, who led the league in BA and was an all-star to boot. I'm always skeptical of trading away proven talent for pitching...the Twins have a very bad record in this regard. (I'm always thinking, "What does Miami believe about upside and durability of Lopez that the Twins don't?") I hope I'm wrong, but I think it is a bad trade.