How the Twins Addressed Their Biggest Weaknesses from 2022 This Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

After a promising start in 2022, the Minnesota Twins faded hard and wound up losing 84 games to finish in third place. 

The front office's key imperative this offseason was to address the shortcomings that led to that downfall, positioning this year's team to weather inevitable storms and make it across the finish line atop the division.

How've they done?

Image courtesy of Scott Taetsch, Troy Taormina, Scott Galvin –USA Today Sports

Reviewing the Twins offseason up to this point after a flurry of January activity, some notable trends and focal points emerge. In sizing up the front office's moves this winter, it strikes me that there was a clear intent to address six key areas that factored into last year's fade, starting with the biggest one: 

Better physical outcomes with a new head trainer.

One of the first moves the Twins made this offseason was replacing head athletic trainer Michael Salazar with Nick Paparesta, a reputed leader in the field who'd spent the past 12 years in Oakland with the A's.

It was a fitting top priority for the front office coming off a season that was completely wrecked by injuries, with unending recovery timelines and frustrating setbacks decimating the roster. The Twins were not a flawless team, as we'll cover below, but the level of physical attrition and number of days lost gave them no legitimate chance to hang on.

To a large extent, injuries are uncontrollable. Training staffs tend to become scapegoats in circumstances where sheer bad luck is the prime culprit. But that's the nature of the beast, and as bad as things got last year, it can't hurt to bring in a fresh – yet seasoned – perspective.

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Better pitching depth from the start.

The pitching staff was definitely hurt by injuries last year, but not to the same degree as the lineup. No, the problem with the Twins' pitching staff last year was more foundational: On Opening Day, they had Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer as members of the starting rotation. On Opening Day, they had Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, and Josh Winder – owner of zero major-league innings – all as part of the bullpen. 

This year the Twins will be much more structurally sound from the start on the pitching side. The return of Kenta Maeda, along with the acquisitions of Tyler Mahle and Pablo López, have surrounded Sonny Gray with a bevy of proven veterans. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who both pitched very well last year, push the rotation to six deep, while Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson have both proven ready to step in. Randy Dobnak is a wild card. 

On the bullpen side, Jhoan Durán emerged as a force last year while Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax are both coming off outstanding seasons. Jorge López, if he returns to form, can give the Twins an unparalleled 1-2 punch alongside Durán in the late innings. Jorge Alcalá is back after missing almost all of last year, joining middle-relief options like Trevor Megill, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe. Your mileage may vary on Emilio Pagán but he's a high-upside piece they don't need to rely on.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another addition on the relief side (Michael Fulmer, come on down?), but as things stand, the 2023 Twins are in a much better position on pitching stability. 

Dynamic contingencies and depth in the position player corps.

If you want to stir up some bad memories, I've got a recommendation to fulfill your sadistic urge: go back and pull up a random Twins starting lineup from last August or September. The club's utterly ravaged position-player corps regularly left Rocco Baldelli submitting sad lineups with little hope to compete. 

Nick Gordon and Gio Urshela trading off at cleanup. Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting against lefties. Gilberto Celestino hitting fifth or sixth, repeatedly. It was ugly, and something none of us want to experience again. The front office is doing everything it realistically can to prevent it.

Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor are borderline starting-caliber players and top-shelf backups. They both provide experience, flexibility, and defensive prowess to help keep things chugging along in a variety of injury scenarios. The Twins are stacked with options in the corners and that's before you account for their prospects nearing readiness. 

Presently, it's kind of hard to see how someone like Gordon or Trevor Larnach is even going to find his way to steady at-bats. Things will change, as we know, but the Twins are well prepared for that eventuality. Even with their 2022 leader in plate appearances gone, Minnesota is very strong on depth across the board. 

Improved hitting against left-handed pitchers.

Southpaws were a perpetual pain point for the Twins last year, holding the team to a .240/.310/.391 overall slash line while regularly shutting down poorly optimized lineups. This owed partially to injuries, especially later on, but was also a result of poor planning. Kyle Garlick can mash lefties and is a nice piece to have on hand, but you don't want to be primarily dependent on him in that role as they were last year. 

This year, Garlick will likely open in Triple-A as ready-made depth for the same role. Meanwhile, the big-league club is significantly more balanced on the bench. Taylor could hardly be described as a "lefty masher" but he's solid against them, and should reduce the need for lefty-hitting outfielders to start against same-siders.

The big add here is Farmer, whose defensive flexibility will allow him to plug in all over and start against almost all left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .288/.345/.492 career slash line (including .309/.380/.568 last year).

Run prevention via defensive improvements.

You might feel the Twins were not emphatic or aggressive enough in their approach to upgrading a pitching staff that ranked 14th in runs allowed and remains plagued by question marks. You'd have a fair point.

But the name of the game isn't pitching well – it's preventing runs. While performance on the mound obviously plays a major role, defense is also a big factor in this equation. The Twins weren't necessarily bad in this area last year, ranking 12th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved thanks in large part to CF/RF, but they could stand to get better. 

In 2023, they're poised to field one of the best defensive units in the league. Buxton and Correa return as elite up-the-middle defenders, and are joined by glove-first catcher Christian Vázquez. Newcomer Joey Gallo adds a standout fielder to the corner mix. Max Kepler provides another top-shelf glove if he sticks around, and if he goes, Larnach's a very good defender in his own right. 

Alex Kirilloff is a superior first baseman to Luis Arraez (Gold Glove hub-bub aside), and we won't see Arraez's sub-par defense at second or third, which is a benefit through this lens. 

Even beyond the starting lineup, we find defensive strength in the Twins' depth. Taylor is a great center fielder whose range is elite in the outfield corners. Farmer is a capable shortstop who excels at the infield corners. Jeffers is a glove-first backup to a glove-first starter. 

 

 

 

Greater catching stability.

Speaking of Jeffers and Vázquez, the presence of these two puts the Twins in a much better position behind the plate than they were last year, when Minnesota backstops collectively posted a .629 OPS and just 1.8 fWAR. 

Dealing away Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt left the Twins woefully short on high-level catching depth. When Jeffers went down, they were forced to lean on Gary Sánchez as a starter before turning over the reins to no-hit veteran Sandy León after grabbing him from Cleveland's Triple-A club. 

Bringing in Vázquez makes a profound difference in this regard, giving the Twins two starting-caliber catchers to buttress against an injury to either. The addition of Tony Wolters on a minor-league deal also supplies the Twins with some experienced depth at Triple-A; Wolters has played more than 400 games in the majors, albeit only 16 since 2020.

Additions like Vázquez and Wolters might not be the most exciting, but like many of the other moves mentioned above, they had strategic underpinnings geared toward shoring up the weaknesses that brought down the 2022 Twins. 

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[Karbo]

Nice article! I will respectfully disagree about Jeffers being starter quality, at least so far. Defensively the juries still out on Miranda though.

[Trov]

I think they have done a pretty good job of addressing many of the issues.  The biggest thing for Twins will be health though.  We have depth at SP, and at positions.  The Taylor deal is much bigger than some will think.  His ability to play CF when Buck is hurt or needs a day off to keep him healthy means we are not marching out sub par defense.  If our new trainer can keep the guys on the field more at high level, I think we will be a decent team. 

[Althebum82]

I am glad that you started with the first post-season move regarding the athletic trainer position.   This should not be a needle-moving action, but it was certainly hard to have confidence in how things unfolded last season.

Correa's return, Vasquez signing, and Arraez trade all show big-time roster-building skills, and Taylor and Farmer are upgrades over last year as well.

Pitching depth is strong through even the AAA roster.  Many good moves here.

My confidence is low in Gallo, Lopez, and Pagan...and, sadly, "wild card" Dobnak.  But, that is a pretty short list.

Well written summary, Nick.

[IndyTwinsFan]

I believe that another necessary thing to address would be overall hitting approach (and discipline) at the plate. In recent seasons, it appeared to this relatively untrained eye that plate discipline and an ability to produce "quality" outs was sorely lacking far more often than not.  A lot of times, that hurt us immensely. 

How to best correcting it in a productive and sustainable manner is something is something I'm not qualified to answer.  However, the acquisition of a high quality hitting coach who preaches that philosophy would be a start.  I know some of us out here have stated they'd like to see a return of James Rowson to that role.  I don't know if that's doable from a contractual standpoint, but there must be someone else out there with a similar pedigree we could get.  Now to identify him and get him here.

Go Twins 2023!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Excellent summary of the offseason moves as well as putting them in context of the current team.  It would be difficult to argue that the Twins ignored last year’s issues during this year’s off season.  There is approximately 100% chance that some of the moves won’t work out, but that is to be expected.  We just need to hope that the ones that don’t aren’t in a place to hurt the team too much.  

Go Twins!

[Doctor Gast]

35 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Nice article! I will respectfully disagree about Jeffers being starter quality, at least so far. Defensively the juries still out on Miranda though.

I share your optimism in how FO has strengthened our depth, Nick. It’s good to know that even with doubts about health of our players, we got our bases covered. 
 Like Karbo I doubt Jeffers ability to be our starting catcher. Except for his above average framing, his defense leaves something to be desired. His weak arm will be a liability and him not able to hit RHPs disqualifies him. Although having Vázquez aleviates the problem short term . It does nothing long term, since we don’t have anyone in our system that’s even proven short or long term.

 Since we have Vázquez, I think we should have a bono fide future starting catcher being mentored by him. Besides maybe obtaining another BP arm, I’d like to suggest obtaining a potential elite catcher prospect.

[mikelink45]

19 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

My confidence is low in Gallo, Lopez, and Pagan...and, sadly, "wild card" Dobnak.  But, that is a pretty short list.

I agree completely with this statement.  Those are my concerns too and I have posted numerous responses to the Gallo is a good fielder statement that Nick repeated.  Go to BR and look at his fielding WAR over the years.  1.6 accumulated over 8 years.  He might not be bad, but his prowess is overstated and does not do enough for me to overcome his Ks.

The pitching looks good except for Lopez and Pagan and if we have to count on Dobnak everything has gone off the rails.

Let's hope for health and wait for the next FO move.  Vazquez and Lopez (the starter) are the two big moves.  The trainer, like the batting and pitching coaches is hard for me to judge.

[Dman]

I think as this article points out they really rounded out the roster.  I still wouldn't mind them grabbing a righty first baseman\DH and it would have been nice to have lucked into a power right handed corner outfield bat.  Still I really like what they did and hope that they find better consistency in the pen. starting pitching and hitting this year.  I am excited to see how this all works out especially since the central was pretty quiet when it comes to acquisitions this year.  This looks like a solid team on paper which should be in the hunt for the division if not wild card this year.

[LastOnePicked]

As I look back on 2022, the factors that stand out to me are the busted bullpen (with Pagan being the standout), Buxton's recurrent mid-season injury issues, the poor managing decisions (maybe Baldelli's worst year) and the vacuum left by Wes Johnson's surprise departure, which Pete Maki didn't seem to be able to fill. Sadly, none of those things have changed. So, to me, the biggest weaknesses for this club remain. There's still too much weight placed on likely-to-be-injured stars, and there aren't new voices in the dugout or the clubhouse to change a culture of losing. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I think that the Twins did an admirable job at filling holes this offseason,  The only holes I think we still have is relief pitching (need to add one more quality BP guy), and I think they don't have as much clutch hitting after letting Arreaz go.  I like that trade, but he was the one guy that I wanted up with runners in scoring position.

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

I think they have done a pretty good job of addressing many of the issues.  The biggest thing for Twins will be health though.  We have depth at SP, and at positions.  The Taylor deal is much bigger than some will think.  His ability to play CF when Buck is hurt or needs a day off to keep him healthy means we are not marching out sub par defense.  If our new trainer can keep the guys on the field more at high level, I think we will be a decent team. 

Plus, with Taylor, they can DH Buck more without losing defense in CF. That might mean 20-25 more games in the batting order for Buck.

[Nashvilletwin]

37 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

As I look back on 2022, the factors that stand out to me are the busted bullpen (with Pagan being the standout), Buxton's recurrent mid-season injury issues, the poor managing decisions (maybe Baldelli's worst year) and the vacuum left by Wes Johnson's surprise departure, which Pete Maki didn't seem to be able to fill. Sadly, none of those things have changed. So, to me, the biggest weaknesses for this club remain. There's still too much weight placed on likely-to-be-injured stars, and there aren't new voices in the dugout or the clubhouse to change a culture of losing. 

I’m glad someone is keeping things a bit real on the TD.

Some moves were great and hopefully have an impact - Correa (his return, so it’s not a net pickup per se), Vasquez and maybe Farmer.

We shall see how others turn out - Lopez (for Arraez), Gallo, Taylor, and keeping Kepler (and maybe Polanco).

But none of these will matter if Buxton only plays 80 games, the Twins continue to play poor fundamental baseball, and Rocco doesn’t up his game.

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, IndyTwinsFan said:

How to best correcting it in a productive and sustainable manner is something is something I'm not qualified to answer.  However, the acquisition of a high quality hitting coach who preaches that philosophy would be a start.  I know some of us out here have stated they'd like to see a return of James Rowson to that role.  I don't know if that's doable from a contractual standpoint, but there must be someone else out there with a similar pedigree we could get.  Now to identify him and get him here.

The Twins hired a new hitting coach just last year (David Popkins) and he's quite highly regarded so I wouldn't expect another change anytime soon.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

As I look back on 2022, the factors that stand out to me are the busted bullpen (with Pagan being the standout), Buxton's recurrent mid-season injury issues, the poor managing decisions (maybe Baldelli's worst year) and the vacuum left by Wes Johnson's surprise departure, which Pete Maki didn't seem to be able to fill. Sadly, none of those things have changed. So, to me, the biggest weaknesses for this club remain. There's still too much weight placed on likely-to-be-injured stars, and there aren't new voices in the dugout or the clubhouse to change a culture of losing. 

I would say these have been addressed, mostly. Pagan was basically the de facto closer on Opening Day last year, this year he'll be like 5th in the pecking order. Last year Buxton had no credible backup in CF, this year he has an elite defensive veteran. Switching pitching coaches at midseason is going to have an adverse effect on any team, but now Maki will have a full offseason and spring to run his own plan and approach. He'll also have considerably more talent/depth to work with, which should benefit both him and Baldelli from a game management standpoint.

The reality is that there was no avoiding a scenario where they were going to be dependent on likely-to-be-injured stars. They can't trade Buxton and they really can't trade guys like Kirilloff or Mahle or Maeda because of their situations. All they can do is try to provide them with the best training support possible and buoy them with plenty of depth, which they did.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, Who did the Twins have penciled in to play SS when the season ended?  My answer is "Nobody".  Correa had announced he was going to test FA, which he did. We did not have Farmer, Lewis will not be ready until the middle of this season, at best, Miller is not ready, Lee is not ready, Martin is not ready. Who was going to play SS? I remember posters proposing moving Polanco back to SS until Lewis could be ready. There was nobody who was going to adequately play SS. Is Correa the same player who played SS last year? Yes, he is. But was he under contract to return for 2023? No, he was not. Is he now under contract to play for the Twins in 2023 and for at least 6 seasons. Yes, he is. Therefore, I submit the biggest weakness which the Twins had going from 2022 to 2023 was 1) the void at SS and 2) the void at catcher, where Jeffers was the only major league catcher contractually committed to play for the Twins in 2023 and there were no prospects in the Twins system anywhere close to being ready to play catcher in the major leagues. Both weaknesses were solved by the FO with unmatched skill/wisdom/luck. But the bottom line is, that SS and catcher were the 2 biggest weaknesses which were addressed by the FO with fantastic results at SS and good results at catcher.

[hitterscount]

Aside from Dobnak.. you almost have me sold!

Someone mentioned Wes Johnson's surprising departure last year, would like to hear the real story. 

[mikelink45]

Now we have a weakness in prospects.  Looking at Keith Law, mlb.com and ESPN prospect rankings we have Rodriguez and Lee and the Guardians have six prospects (all in top fifty in Law's list) and none of our are pitchers.  We have cashed in on prospects now the future depends on replenishing this system. 

[gunnarthor]

I don't think the Twins have done enough to fix the pitching staff to be a better than .500 team. But, just like last year, I like the offense. I liked the Arraez trade. I think we have some nice trade chips at the deadline that will help us in the future. But this team is too far away right now. And we have zero depth. 

[Trov]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree completely with this statement.  Those are my concerns too and I have posted numerous responses to the Gallo is a good fielder statement that Nick repeated.  Go to BR and look at his fielding WAR over the years.  1.6 accumulated over 8 years.  He might not be bad, but his prowess is overstated and does not do enough for me to overcome his Ks.

The pitching looks good except for Lopez and Pagan and if we have to count on Dobnak everything has gone off the rails.

Let's hope for health and wait for the next FO move.  Vazquez and Lopez (the starter) are the two big moves.  The trainer, like the batting and pitching coaches is hard for me to judge.

When you look at Gallo and his defense, looking just at defensive WAR is a poor way to judge his overall defense.  First, the name itself is above replacement, meaning you are judging him to the average defender.  So by definition, having a positive WAR makes him above average.  Where he was been above average on defense is right field mainly.  When you look at his seasons playing RF, he is actually the majority of his dWAR.  The early part of his career he was playing 3rd, where he had negative defense, hence the move to OF.  When you compare him to other well known or regarded defending right fielders, he is on par with them.  For the most part even the best defensive right fielders are still only a plus 1 to 2 dWAR in any given season.  Left field is similar.  It is the CF that makes a huge difference in dWAR.  However, I think dWAR for an outfielder is hard to really quantify.  

Think about it, how do you really measure it?  When a guy guns someone out do we give them a plus .1?  What happens if no one runs on them because their arm is too good?  Does that get you any plus or since no one tried we really cannot quatify?  How about throwing to wrong base allowing a guy to advance do we give a negative .1 for that?  

I think most of what BR for dWAR looks into for it is range and the like, if you look at how they measure it that seems to be the way they go, as it is based on defensive runs saved, and zone rating, two different metrics.  I believe they do not look a ton at the little things a guy can do for defense.  No one is saying Gallo is a super high all time defender, but when you compare him to many others, he is better than most.  

His strike outs are an issue, but he still walks a ton, it is not like he is just up there 3 pitches sit back on the bench. 

[rv78]

53 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Now we have a weakness in prospects.  Looking at Keith Law, mlb.com and ESPN prospect rankings we have Rodriguez and Lee and the Guardians have six prospects (all in top fifty in Law's list) and none of our are pitchers.  We have cashed in on prospects now the future depends on replenishing this system. 

The future is now.... for the next 6 years. If a Championship or two doesn't happen within the next 6 years this FO totally blew it. Yes they have depth. Yes they have defense. Yes they improved the rotation. But will they stay healthy, hit well enough and be able to win meaningful games in October without a legitimate Ace? Only time will tell.

[Major League Ready]

The pitching changes from the beginning of last year stand out to me.  They added Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Chris Paddack and Jovanni Moran.  Maeda and Alcala will be back from injury.    Plus, Varland and SWR appear to be ready.  That's a lot of good pitching added from one year to the next.

[eric grundmeier]

I'm in the camp that Gallo is an average corner outfielder at this stage of his career.  Thankfully, the Twins have 3 of the top 11 outfielders by OOA over the past four years.  2019-2022 Baseball Savant data shows Buxton, Kepler and Taylor in the top 11.  Joey Gallo has +4 OOA over those four years.  (-3 in 2022.)

 

 

[IndyTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins hired a new hitting coach just last year (David Popkins) and he's quite highly regarded so I wouldn't expect another change anytime soon.

Good point.  I had forgotten about that.

Hope that hire begins paying positive dividends sooner rather than later. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Now we have a weakness in prospects.  Looking at Keith Law, mlb.com and ESPN prospect rankings we have Rodriguez and Lee and the Guardians have six prospects (all in top fifty in Law's list) and none of our are pitchers.  We have cashed in on prospects now the future depends on replenishing this system. 

There aren't 100 better prospects in the game than Royce.....I don't care what Law has to say.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

When you look at Gallo and his defense, looking just at defensive WAR is a poor way to judge his overall defense.  First, the name itself is above replacement, meaning you are judging him to the average defender.  So by definition, having a positive WAR makes him above average.  Where he was been above average on defense is right field mainly.  When you look at his seasons playing RF, he is actually the majority of his dWAR.  The early part of his career he was playing 3rd, where he had negative defense, hence the move to OF.  When you compare him to other well known or regarded defending right fielders, he is on par with them.  For the most part even the best defensive right fielders are still only a plus 1 to 2 dWAR in any given season.  Left field is similar.  It is the CF that makes a huge difference in dWAR.  However, I think dWAR for an outfielder is hard to really quantify.  

Think about it, how do you really measure it?  When a guy guns someone out do we give them a plus .1?  What happens if no one runs on them because their arm is too good?  Does that get you any plus or since no one tried we really cannot quatify?  How about throwing to wrong base allowing a guy to advance do we give a negative .1 for that?  

I think most of what BR for dWAR looks into for it is range and the like, if you look at how they measure it that seems to be the way they go, as it is based on defensive runs saved, and zone rating, two different metrics.  I believe they do not look a ton at the little things a guy can do for defense.  No one is saying Gallo is a super high all time defender, but when you compare him to many others, he is better than most.  

His strike outs are an issue, but he still walks a ton, it is not like he is just up there 3 pitches sit back on the bench. 

Nice defense - I still think he is too tall, too awkward and too infrequently in the field to be considered a good defender.  I would take Kepler first.  But if you are satisfied that is fine with me.  I will be a season long skeptic. 

[mikelink45]

53 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

There aren't 100 better prospects in the game than Royce.....I don't care what Law has to say.

At this point - how do we know?  Until he plays again we just hope the past is predictive of the future. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Now we have a weakness in prospects.  Looking at Keith Law, mlb.com and ESPN prospect rankings we have Rodriguez and Lee and the Guardians have six prospects (all in top fifty in Law's list) and none of our are pitchers.  We have cashed in on prospects now the future depends on replenishing this system. 

Plus the Guardians had the youngest team in the majors last year without these 6 top 100 prospects. The Twins are in for a dogfight with the Guardians these next 10 years.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

There aren't 100 better prospects in the game than Royce.....I don't care what Law has to say.

Yeah I plan to hold Law to that projection.  He never really liked Lewis especially at short so it is not too surprising.  He did mention in his article that it is skewed toward younger players with lots of projection remaining.  Lewis is at AAA and is who he is so not much projection left.  He also has so little playing time it is hard to say just what he is at this point so I guess I can see the hesitancy based on that metric.

Still it has to be hard to ignore Lewis's monster AAA debut and an equally impressive MLB debut.  Granted both were SSS but I think Law has highly under estimated Lewis all along.  I would love to throw this one back in his face but first I need Royce to make an All Star game.

Top 100 lists are not the be all end all.  They don't account for Luis Arraez types and lot's of other guys who didn't appear to have top end tools only to end up better than players projected to be better than they were.  It is nice to have players in there and it is a fun read but that is about it for me.

[Fat Calvin]

7 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't think the Twins have done enough to fix the pitching staff to be a better than .500 team. But, just like last year, I like the offense. I liked the Arraez trade. I think we have some nice trade chips at the deadline that will help us in the future. But this team is too far away right now. And we have zero depth. 

Well, we got the #5 pick in July.  And we did get a few prospects from Miami.  I'm still a bit worried about our catching backup.  We've got two catchers.  If one goes down, we're in trouble.