Who do the Numbers Endorse as Twins' New Leadoff Hitter?

[Matthew Lenz]

Buxton & Gallo strikeout too much for me to have them leadoff games and the Twins don’t run enough to be too concerned with BSR, IMO.

I like Correa for the job. He has only 16 PA in the leadoff spot, but good numbers when leading off an inning. Buxton in the two followed by Miranda then Gallo…most nights.

[Fatbat]

When Royce Lewis is playing, he should be lead off. I’d use Polanco there on the other days. Gallo should be batting somewhere behind AK which puts him right in the #7 or 8 spot and it’ll be entertaining to listen to some clamoring for him to move up when he hits an HR and everyone else will shrug because he also stuck out twice and walked once in that game. Limit his PA’s to limit his K’s.  Gordon is a great #9 guy cause he can set the 3rd inning table for the big boys Polanco/Correa/Buxton/Ak/Miranda etc. limit Gordon to 500PA for the year. He will still be super productive but shouldn’t be the face of the franchise.  Insert Julien anywhere in the top 6 if his bat indeed plays at the MLB level. 

[saviking]

Ha! When have you know the Twins to have a set anything in their up and down their lineup the past several years. Maybe you're article should read .. who are the 8 players the Twins will use in the leadoff spot this season 

[Parfigliano]

22 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Rocco's going to go with Gordon.

Most likely the correct answer

[Doctor Gast]

I love to see Buck run the bases but I think Gordon could have lead off in him. He seems to get up for challenges. Like transitioning to CF. Julien will be an awesome lead off hitter.

[Nashvilletwin]

I love all the posters suggesting Gordon and Julien (and I’m one of those); meanwhile, according to some recent articles on the TD, Gordon will be a utility outfielder (playing behind Gallo, Kepler and Larnach in the corner spots and behind Taylor as backup CF) and Julien may not even make his big league debut this season.
 

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Who do I WANT to bat leadoff? That would be Julien almost literally replacing Arraez on the roster as a utility player and DH. While he fits best at 2B...and played there exclusively in 2022 when not as a DH...he has some experience at 1B and LF. While he'll never hit like Arraez, or SO at such an insanely low level, he will walk more and provides more power and speed. His ability to walk as much as he does tells me he can thrive early without being close to reaching his ceiling at the ML level. He beat up on AA ball and destroyed the AFL. But even with a strong ST, he probably won't be pushed that quickly. Also, unless Kepler is moved, or someone is hurt, I don't see room to begin the season with the Twins.

What makes the most SENSE? Various combinations depending on the daily lineup and matchups. Buck is just not the leadoff hitter type everyone thought he would be when drafted. He's a dangerous power plant who should be hitting with runners OB, anywhere from 1-4 probably. Polanco could probably do the job quite well. But he's also been such a quality run producer where he's been at that I think it would be a mistake to place him there.

IMO, that means a LH combination of Gordon and Larnach, with a splash of Gallo. You have to remember that if Gallo DOES revert back to his very recent Texas self, he's pretty good at OB and being a dangerous power option in that spot. And one out doesn't have to kill an inning he leads off. And...get ready for it...IF Kepler isn't moved, and IF he suddenly finds the ability to drive the ball again instead of soft contact, and with the changes in the shift helping him even a little, he's not a K machine, will take some walks, runs the bases well, and Rocco has used him there previously.

From the RH side, I see Farmer and the catcher of the day, especially Jeffers, who rakes against LHP. Remember, the Twins used to play Garver a lot in the #1 spot.

Getting OB at a decent clip is important. But the #1 hitter isn't guaranteed to actually lead off an inning but once a game. So what you're looking for is someone who can provide a "spark" in that spot between getting OB, advancing runners ANY WAY POSSIBLE, and knocking in runners on base ahead of you from the bottom of the order, or helping perpetuate an inning, which is much the same as advancing the runners.

And that's why it isn't so crazy to play matchups until SOMEONE comes along to grab that #1 spot. For all the "absurdity" that someone like Gallo could be considered, his GOOD YEARS still has a low BA and high K rate, but he also has great power to produce and high BB numbers to give him a good OB%. Imagine him in that spot with a runner OB and he cranks a HR. Imagine he walks instead and now the likes of Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Miranda are up. Now, of course, he might whiff or hit a lazy fly ball. But isn't that true of anyone/everyone most of the time?

I don't WANT Kepler at #1 unless he turns himself around. I'm not advocating Gallo in that spot, but I'd like him, or even Larnach, RIGHT NOW, over the Kepler from the past 2 seasons. I WANT someone like Julien or possibly Martin...who I don't think is as close to being READY...to provide all "all encompassing" offensive game for that spot.

But as of RIGHT NOW, I say NO-ONE takes that spot and it will be a moving and matchup position. And that makes the most sense to me.

Correct, we don’t have an obvious guy and match-ups will drive who gets slotted there daily. One thing I don’t have to IMAGINE is that Gallo has hit at a .199 clip over his career, and this has a great chance of not having success as a “get on base” guy.

Considering other options.

[gman]

Gallo's career strikeout rate is 44%. Do you really want him up the most of anyone on the team? Lets start the game with a strikeout. That'll be exciting.

[Rosterman]

My own personal opinion for the idea lead-off hitter is twofold - someone who can see alot of pitches or make the pitcher throw a lot of pitches (Arraez was beautiful at that), and who can get on base. 

Once on base, I want them to be a threat to stay out of the double-play and be able to advance to third.

It's nice when they hit the occasional home run to give you an early lead, but I would rather see that skillset with a guy on base.

Correa is better suited for the second or third spot. Buxton for the third or fourth. Which leaves us, now, with Kepler, Polanco and, as someone has said, Gallo. At least with Gallo we know a pitcher would have to throw at least three pitches to strike him out. I also smile at the analogy that he would probably see more (and lesser quality) pitches being the first man up in a game. But I also shake-my-head if I want this guy to get five at bats in many a game.

And, ultiamtely, that is my big call for the top-of-the-order. Who do I want to see get that extra at bat in a game.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

I’m a pro Gordon guy after 2022! He’s an OUTFIELDER!

To me he’s got enough speed & hits with enough consistency against RH pitching to be as close as we can get to a prototype lead-off guy. He could be more selective and maybe walk 3-4 times more per month! With 575 AB’s this year he could be a 38 doubles guy. He won’t be cheated on swing.

Vs. Left handed starters I think Michael Taylor makes sense. He can steal a base occasionally.  He can run & his spilts against Lefties suggest he’ll start against all left handers.

These guys are athletic & durable.

I like Gallo 1st maybe 10-15 times per year if Gordon is sitting against a RH. He would be good against power arms or somebody that isn’t a great control guy early. With the former he might turn a fastball around & with the latter he can use his ability to walk.

Julien’s gotta make the team before I speculate with him in any spot in order.

Lewis could drop into the #1 spot after July & we probably shed ourselves of either Gallo or Kepler.

LH opposition starter (30 games):

Taylor - Buxton - Correa - Polanco - Miranda - Farmer - Gordon - Jeffers - Keppler

RH opposition starter (130 games):

Gordon - Kirilof - Correa - Larnach - Polanco - Vazquez - Kepler - Miranda - Gallo

Obviously, Buxton will play 100 games or so against RH pitching and alternate with Larnach at DH & Gordon in CF.

With LH pitching being a personal target for success and the fact that he’s spelling Miranda - CC - Polanco ……….Farmer will be playing 120 games this year……….maybe a surprise?

[Dave The Dastardly]

55 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I love all the posters suggesting Gordon and Julien (and I’m one of those); meanwhile, according to some recent articles on the TD, Gordon will be a utility outfielder (playing behind Gallo, Kepler and Larnach in the corner spots and behind Taylor as backup CF) and Julien may not even make his big league debut this season.
 

TD Posters aren't reknown for their perspicacity. Just as all other sports prognosticators, TD Posters' opinions run the gamut from right on to somewhere out in left field, which is were I'd put Gordon as my starter. I think he's earned it. But then there's Rocco, whose predilections have managed to mystify all, as the joker in the deck. So if a majority of TD Posters leave Gordon out of the mix for lead-off, it only makes sense then that Gordon will be the manager's choice. Odd that I would then be on the same wavelength as Rocco... well, maybe the same wave length but at a slightly different frequency.

Errrrk! That's me, turning the dial.

[Daniel Anderson]

Watching the playoffs last year I remember thinking how much I envied Cleveland for having Kwan as their leadoff hitter for the next many years. I'd go with Buck and hope he stays healthy enough to cause chaos on the bases.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Martin should bat first if he makes the team.  When Lewis comes up he is also a prime candidate for batting first.  If neither of those two are available, I'd go with Gordon.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

22 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would go Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Miranda 1-4. At this point I would see Gallo 6 or 7.

One issue with going with three righty hitters at spots 2, 3, and 4 is that it makes it almost inevitable to stack 3 lefty hitters later in the order. Even if those are the hitters who would most belong at the top of the lineup in a vacuum, planning for matchups might call for mixing the order up.

[Greggory Masterson]

I've seen a fair deal of clamoring for Gordon to hit leadoff, so I wanted to throw his information out there. He's a free-swinger who doesn't walk much, though he is fast he sees the fewest pitches on the team (13th both past and projected), and his OBP is low (11th projected, 10th 2021-2022). His speed is second in projection to Buxton, but middle of the road between 2021/2022, because he was not a good baserunner last year.

This is all with the caveat that, even if the Twins did choose their lineup based on an algorithm, it would be much more intense than a silly rank-ordering system like I did here. Just wanted to share what Gordon looked like in this exercise.

[LA VIkes Fan]

23 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would go Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Miranda 1-4. At this point I would see Gallo 6 or 7.

This. Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Miranda, and either Kirilloff or Larnach should be the top 5 hitters in the lineup, the last 3 in whatever order works (I actually prefer Kirilloff 3, Buxton 4 and Miranda 5).  If Miranda is 5, Gallo is 6, LF is 7 (Larnach, Farmer or Kepler), Vasquez 8, and Gordon 9.  

[Nashvilletwin]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m a pro Gordon guy after 2022! He’s an OUTFIELDER!

To me he’s got enough speed & hits with enough consistency against RH pitching to be as close as we can get to a prototype lead-off guy. He could be more selective and maybe walk 3-4 times more per month! With 575 AB’s this year he could be a 38 doubles guy. He won’t be cheated on swing.

Vs. Left handed starters I think Michael Taylor makes sense. He can steal a base occasionally.  He can run & his spilts against Lefties suggest he’ll start against all left handers.

These guys are athletic & durable.

I like Gallo 1st maybe 10-15 times per year if Gordon is sitting against a RH. He would be good against power arms or somebody that isn’t a great control guy early. With the former he might turn a fastball around & with the latter he can use his ability to walk.

Julien’s gotta make the team before I speculate with him in any spot in order.

Lewis could drop into the #1 spot after July & we probably shed ourselves of either Gallo or Kepler.

LH opposition starter (30 games):

Taylor - Buxton - Correa - Polanco - Miranda - Farmer - Gordon - Jeffers - Keppler

RH opposition starter (130 games):

Gordon - Kirilof - Correa - Larnach - Polanco - Vazquez - Kepler - Miranda - Gallo

Obviously, Buxton will play 100 games or so against RH pitching and alternate with Larnach at DH & Gordon in CF.

With LH pitching being a personal target for success and the fact that he’s spelling Miranda - CC - Polanco ……….Farmer will be playing 120 games this year……….maybe a surprise?

Great, another season with mixing up the batting order and positions every game.  Maybe it’s an old school thought, but there might be something to be said about showing up at the park every day knowing where you are going to bat and what position you are going to play.

I guess it might be a necessity when you don’t have players who are a good fit for a particular spot in the order or field……

[miracleb]

Boy, I don't like any of these options.  Buxton never was able to master the bunt....... to be able to use his speed to get on base.   He has definitely converted to a power hitter with a lower batting average, more strikeouts, and more extra base hits.  That is NOT a recipe for a lead-off hitter.

[Minny505]

On 1/28/2023 at 1:24 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

At least if Gallo batted lead-off, he would not kill a first inning rally with a strike out. 

I would take this even further. 

Leadoff sees the lowest PAs with runners in scoring position of any of the top 6-7 spots in the lineup. Because of that, hits really are of little value, while getting on base or hitting a HR is at a premium. 

If Gallo is somewhat back to his former self, he actually makes a great leadoff man. If he can match Arraez's OBP, but with 25-30 more HRs, he's an even better leadoff man than Arraez with his superior baserunning and lack of splits.

It may not be traditional, but he could be the best answer to this question.

I start the season with any of those others listed here, but I keep the door open for Gallo if he shows he is back in April.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Minny505 said:

I would take this even further. 

Leadoff sees the lowest PAs with runners in scoring position of any of the top 6-7 spots in the lineup. Because of that, hits really are of little value, while getting on base or hitting a HR is at a premium. 

If Gallo is somewhat back to his former self, he actually makes a great leadoff man. If he can match Arraez's OBP, but with 25-30 more HRs, he's an even better leadoff man than Arraez with his superior baserunning and lack of splits.

It may not be traditional, but he could be the best answer to this question.

I start the season with any of those others listed here, but I keep the door open for Gallo if he shows he is back in April.

 

Thanks Minny. Very interesting.

[Melissa]

Those clamoring for Julien (whom I also like) seem not to take account of his limitations as a defender. I hope his fielding improves before he’s called up.