The Falvey Philosophies, Part 2: Fixing Problem Spots

[Greggory Masterson]

An examination of the Twins roster in Derek Falvey's seventh year reveals four fundamental philosophies the organization has embraced. Today we look at how the organization has filled holes in their roster.

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The core Falvey Philosophy is to fill out most of the Twins roster from their young core, but it is rare to see a team that manages to fill all areas of the roster with products of its own farm system, and the Twins are no different. The club generally does an adequate job of identifying areas of need and making moves to fill them--though the mileage on the moves may vary. Matthew Trueblood had a great piece on this, so I won't repeat his ideas in terms of the philosophy of said moves, but here are some examples. 

Coming off of a year in 2016 during which the catcher position was manned by Kurt Suzuki (on an expiring contract), Juan Centeno, and John Ryan Murphy with no imminent replacements, they signed Jason Castro to a three-year deal. The deal largely paid off, as Castro manned the backstop position serviceably and was a fixture in the lineup for three years. 

The club made a similar move ahead of the 2023 season signing

Christian Vázquez, given their absence of a catcher not named Ryan Jeffers and no clear options in the high minors.  We’ll see how it works a second time around.

Heading into 2019, the club was in clear need of a third baseman with Miguel Sanó slated to miss the beginning of the season, at minimum. This led to the signing of Marwin Gonzalez, and given his positional flexibility, they were willing to go to two years to bring him in and find a role for him after Sanó’s return.

In 2018, seeing a void in the bullpen both for that year and the future, the team sprung for Proven Closer™ Addison Reed, among others. The Reed signing is tied for the second-longest contract given to a pitcher in the Falvey-Levine era, and it went quite poorly, with Reed throwing 54 mediocre innings before his arm fell off, after which he never threw another Major League inning.

 

The Reed signing may have played a part in the group's hesitancy to sign a pitcher of any kind long-term, because the only other pitcher signed for multiple years that they signed was Michael Pineda, twice. The first Pineda deal featured one rehab year in 2018 before paying him a full salary in 2019. He re-signed before the 2020 on something of a sweetheart deal due to his apparent appreciation of the team and his PED suspension. In both instances, the team had long-term holes in the rotation, so bringing in Big Mike filled a clear need at a reasonable price.

They have shown some willingness to take risks on these veteran fill-ins, hoping either for bounce-back years or healthy seasons from oft-injured players, such as in the most recent signing of Joey Gallo or 2022’s signing of Chris Archer. This risk is often associated with their tendency to let the market play out. With fewer teams with which to compete, they can sign the remaining players at lower prices, which is how they managed to sign Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa, twice..  

Those remaining players are often still available for one reason or another. Perhaps the greatest risk was taken on Correa in 2022, though he is the best signing in the team’s history. If he were to have suffered catastrophic injury in 2022, the club would likely need to pay him $70MM over the following two years. Still, it was a risk that they were willing to take to effectively employ a top-3 shortstop as a placeholder for Royce Lewis .

Do you have a favorite veteran signing for the Twins over the last 7 years?

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[EGFTShaw]

Two at the moment:

1. Nelson Cruz
2. C4

These are signings and not trades then signing longer term.

[specialiststeve]

Quote

fundamental philosophies

They should include... fundamentals by the players and the manager! We have lost our way or should I say the "Twins Way" with sound fundaments including Baserunning, situational hitting, fielding and managerial fundamentals of how to use a pitching staff!! 

Mr. Falvey... please address these as THESE are why we have been going the wrong direction. 

Thank you... Twins Fans. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1) Nelson Cruz. 2) Carlos Correa - 6 year deal plus 3) Carlos Correa- 3year deal with opt outs.

[rv78]

I think you are giving Falvine too much credit. Taking left-overs to fill areas of need is not a winning strategy by any means. I like the Vazquez signing and even though Correa locked up for 6 years may turn out to be really good, the verdict has yet to be determined with him. It could be a huge over-pay much like the Gallo signing which I think is one of the worst moves Falvine has made ranking it right up there with Shoemaker. When you fill problem spots with players with injury issues or unproductive players that is just kicking the can down the road and not fixing the problem. You also need to ask..... why are there so many problem spots to fill? Are they drafting poorly? Is player development lacking? (Poor fundamentals indicate so) Are they committed to keeping oft injured players on the team, because they are cheaper than a sound player that can play everyday? (Buxton) That only creates more problem areas of need? Do they stick with unproductive players too long? (Duffey, Sano, Pagan, Kepler) Sometimes problems areas are of your own making, which I think this FO is guilty of.

[heresthething]

36 minutes ago, rv78 said:

IYou also need to ask..... why are there so many problem spots to fill? Are they drafting poorly? Is player development lacking? (Poor fundamentals indicate so) Are they committed to keeping oft injured players on the team, because they are cheaper than a sound player that can play everyday? (Buxton) That only creates more problem areas of need? Do they stick with unproductive players too long? (Duffey, Sano, Pagan, Kepler) Sometimes problems areas are of your own making, which I think this FO is guilty of.

Exactly this.  It's not expected they are going to get it all right but in particular with the continues signings of veterans with little to nothing left in the tank such as Shoemaker, Happ, Archer, Bundy and then sticking with them is a real problem.  Hopefully the Gallo signing won't turn out the same but at this point it fits their pattern.  

[LanceJS]

One big difference with the Gallo signing as compared to Shoemaker, Happ, Archer and Bundy is the team already has replacements if Gallo falters (Gordon or Larnach come to mind) while the others were counted on to be ready every 5th day with no viable replacement should they falter. Look how many times each one made a start with only Bundy showing any signs of adequate performance. 

[JD-TWINS]

Am hoping for a FA reliever still to come for ‘23 - just about any of the quality guys left would get me excited!!!!!

Reality signing - VÁZQUEZ is going to change our view of Catcher as a better defender & more importantly, he hits .274 for his career……40-70 points higher than Sanchez or Jeffers. Much bigger delta upgrade between Vázquez and our previous Catchers v. CC & Farmer!!!

[rv78]

2 hours ago, LanceJS said:

One big difference with the Gallo signing as compared to Shoemaker, Happ, Archer and Bundy is the team already has replacements if Gallo falters (Gordon or Larnach come to mind) while the others were counted on to be ready every 5th day with no viable replacement should they falter. Look how many times each one made a start with only Bundy showing any signs of adequate performance. 

One could argue that a AAA pitcher or two could have done as good a job as Shoemaker, Happ, Archer and Bundy did had they been given the chance. Varland, Henriquez and SWR were not terrible once they finally got it. How many at bats will Gallo take away from the likes of Larnach, Gordon, Taylor, Kirilloff, Wallner, all possibilities that could and probably will hit better than Gallo yet Rocco will play Gallo instead because he is getting paid $11M and can hit a few more home runs inbetween his Sano-esque number of strikeouts. If you look at batting average even guys like Celestino, Garlick and Jake Cave hit better than Gallo. 

[KBJ1]

The only reason I tolerate the Gallo signing is that he is a plus defender.

If there is a chance that we could turn him into a 250 hitter with fewer K's & power, great. But we tried that with Sano and.......

[beterday]

Sano showed a total inability to adjust to the situation and the ball/strike count.  He struck out on a low, outside, breaking pitch 1000 times and usually that was after getting a fastball close to or down the middle of the plate.  This happened over and over and ....  If Gallo shows the unwillingness or inability to adjust, he should be gone quickly.  Kepler is the same deal.  He refused to hit the ball to the wide open left side of the infield, continuing to stubbornly try to hit a ground ball into the shift.  Being long-term Twins maybe they deserved (they didn't) the extended chance, but Gallo needs to change or be gone.

[Minny505]

On 1/28/2023 at 5:37 AM, rv78 said:

I think you are giving Falvine too much credit. Taking left-overs to fill areas of need is not a winning strategy by any means. I like the Vazquez signing and even though Correa locked up for 6 years may turn out to be really good, the verdict has yet to be determined with him. It could be a huge over-pay much like the Gallo signing which I think is one of the worst moves Falvine has made ranking it right up there with Shoemaker. When you fill problem spots with players with injury issues or unproductive players that is just kicking the can down the road and not fixing the problem. You also need to ask..... why are there so many problem spots to fill? Are they drafting poorly? Is player development lacking? (Poor fundamentals indicate so) Are they committed to keeping oft injured players on the team, because they are cheaper than a sound player that can play everyday? (Buxton) That only creates more problem areas of need? Do they stick with unproductive players too long? (Duffey, Sano, Pagan, Kepler) Sometimes problems areas are of your own making, which I think this FO is guilty of.

You're ready to declare the Gallo signing a bust and a huge overpay before he even takes to the field?

Juevos man. Juevos.

[rv78]

15 hours ago, Minny505 said:

You're ready to declare the Gallo signing a bust and a huge overpay before he even takes to the field?

Juevos man. Juevos.

Absolutely. Larnach or Wallner are capable of putting up similar numbers to Gallo at a league minimum salary. They may not walk as often as Gallo but they would out hit him for average by a significant margin.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Absolutely. Larnach or Wallner are capable of putting up similar numbers to Gallo at a league minimum salary. They may not walk as often as Gallo but they would out hit him for average by a significant margin.

I don't disagree, but if Gallo is a 2 WAR player, he is far from a bust. That's my dispute. 

And if Larnach or Wallner are pressing at mid-season to play daily, and Gallo is on track for that 2 WAR season, he can be traded for prospects. 

FWIW, not a chance in hell I sign Gallo unless a trade for Kepler is lined up or done...but in a vacuum, the signing is perfectly reasonable.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Absolutely. Larnach or Wallner are capable of putting up similar numbers to Gallo at a league minimum salary. They may not walk as often as Gallo but they would out hit him for average by a significant margin.

I'd add Gordon to that list as well.

And even if everyone on the roster now is there and healthy all season, I think Larnach still gets 500+ PAs.

[rv78]

I doubt Larnach gets 500+ at bats for multiple reasons. 1.There are 6 outfielders not counting Kirilloff that will need playing time, (Larnach, Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Gordon). 2. Rocco loves a different lineup everyday. He's obsessed with righty/lefty matchups and Larnach will get the bench for that reason alone quite often against lefty pitchers. 3. He's coming off an injury season so Rocco will baby him by limiting his at bats thinking he needs rest to avoid another injury. 4. Even with Wallner (OFer#7) starting in AAA he'll be brought up to spell a player or two during the season, especially if he's tearing it up in AAA.