The Twins Need to be Realistic With Max Kepler

[dxpavelka]

Hard to imagine there being 9 guys on this squad better than him when 3 of the guys being counted on to be among said 9 have a combined 1 out of 12 seasons of even being on the damn field as many games as he was last year.  I for one would REALLY love to see  season where we don't have to count on a Garlick or the next incarnation of Jake Cave.

[Bill Tanner]

Lacking the inside scoop that Dan Hayes has, but I wonder if the Twins may have an agreement in principle with another organization but cannot make the trade until the start of spring training for 40-man reasons.  

Redundancy is a good thing in that it prevents a single point of failure, but the outfield redundancy the Twins have amassed is overdone.

[umterp23]

22 hours ago, Trov said:

Why would Pirates have any interest in Kepler?  I get Winder and a pick, but why Kepler?  They are in no way going to be competing in the next few years.  He adds nothing to their team.  Suer, the magic trade machine says they fit, but you need to remember the team taking on someone like Kepler will want to be in win now mode, if they are giving away assets.  Would Pirates take him if he was put on waivers, maybe, but they would never give up an asset to get him, as he does not fit their plans going forward. 

I agree on win now mode but living in Pittsburgh, the Pirates are never in win now mode, they like to gather young assets and preach to the masses that they are building for the future.  What they build in grooming assets to then trade them away for younger assets, thus the never ending 5 year plan to competitiveness.  That's why it is always Steelers Country, then Penguins, the Pirates on Firework Night and when they host really good teams

 

[HoskenPowell]

Found out there's not much market for a slick fielding horrible hitter.  Only one team was bright enough to give $10 million to a player like that. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think the Twins are far from done and the roster, while looking fairly set is not.  I don't see any blockbuster moves but I could see a RP being signed, possibly Chafin orFulmer. I still would like a flyer on former Cardinal Alex Reyes.  I could see Max traded straight up to the Yankees for Frankie Montas.  The Twins, with the addition of Pablo Lopez, would have the depth to wait for Montas to be ready by May 1st.  If Montas is healthy, he becomes our #1 with Lopez our #2.  The Yankees would be selling low on him but it's clear they have a need for someone like Max and with the short porch in RF and his ability to play CF & RF they could keep Judge in RF full time.

[sun]

The question of trading Kepler boils down to whether the Twins need him or not. I'm not sure what the answer is but he's a Gold Glove caliber outfielder even though he didn't win the award. You can be sure that he's always working hard to improve which is always possible. Him & Polanco were extended at the same time and Polanco was severely underpaid for his worth. But Jorge's bat compensated for Max's low BA. I imagine that Max is at the crossroads of his career, whether he's going to be bought out or prove his value for another year. I think that he's a favorite with the lady fans, and other players still need to prove themselves. Kepler may be able to increase his value before the trade deadline. He must still be an asset or else the Twins would have dumped him with all of the trade rumors. If no one is willing to pick him up yet then give it some time and maybe things will change. In the meantime I'll be rooting for him to win a Gold Glove so that he can receive a $500K bonus & for Polanco's contract to vest with 550 PA's this year.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I think the Twins are far from done and the roster, while looking fairly set is not.  I don't see any blockbuster moves but I could see a RP being signed, possibly Chafin orFulmer. I still would like a flyer on former Cardinal Alex Reyes.  I could see Max traded straight up to the Yankees for Frankie Montas.  The Twins, with the addition of Pablo Lopez, would have the depth to wait for Montas to be ready by May 1st.  If Montas is healthy, he becomes our #1 with Lopez our #2.  The Yankees would be selling low on him but it's clear they have a need for someone like Max and with the short porch in RF and his ability to play CF & RF they could keep Judge in RF full time.

The Yankees have six 50 FV pitching prospects and two 45 FV pitching prospects.  That is their point of depth.  I would much rather get back someone that has the potential to be a long-term solution instead of hoping Montas will be healthy enough to contribute for two-thirds of a season where we already have a ton of question marks.   

                       Yankees Prospects

 

[old nurse]

By batted ball type according to fangraphs Keplers fly ball and infield fly ball percentages are slightly below league average. His contact percentages are about league average. Slightly below on soft slightly higher on medium. Yet there is below league average results. Don’t know an explanation for this

[Thebigalguy]

Kepler seems unteachable at the plate. I don't know why. We know what he's capable of. Too many grounders don't get it done. I consider this his make-or-break year and would like to see the Twins give him the opportunity to change his approach as either an everyday or platoon player. If it doesn't pan out, the team should cut its losses, wish him the very best (which can be either heartfelt or a Southern way of saying "Get lost."), and give him the opportunity to prove his mettle with another team. 

[MGM4706]

WOW! Someone needs to do a little research before authoring articles. With the new shift rule change Kepler's average will jump 30 points! And Larnach? Come on. His Range is 3 feet left and right and he has no clue on how to play the wall! No improvement at all. And the league has figured out he can't hit a cutter. Last 50 at bats were horrible. Much like Sano. So don't count on him.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Kepler's average is highly unlikely to benefit by 30 points with the shift ban. The Athletic did an article on the effect of the shift and its impact on particular players using Statcast and other data. Kepler was not one of the players likely to heavily benefit, those were Corey Seager and Freddie Freeman types. You know, guys that hit the ball hard into the shift. Conversely, Kepler in 2022 had an average exit velocity (51st percentile), average hard hit rate (49th percentile) and a below average barrel rate (45th percentile).  Max's problem isn't so much where he hits them as it is how hard he hits them - lot's of pop ups and soft ground balls. Removing the shift won't help either of those issues. I can't find the Athletic article but I recall that Max should get and extra 6-10 hits a year. Spread out over 525-550 ABS (standard for an everyday player), that's somewhere between 8 and 15 points of batting average, meaning Max might hit .235-.242 instead of his usual about .227. Also, these are by definition ground ball and shorter line drive hits, i.e., singles, so it won't improve his slugging percentage much or help him drive in a lot more runs. 

You know who might benefit a lot from banning the shift, at least when he doesn't strike out? Joey Gallo.  His average exit velocity is in the 63rd percentile, his average hard hit rate is in the 94th percentile, and his average barrel rate is in the 98th percentile. Maybe the Front Office really does have a plan . . .