The Twins Need to be Realistic With Max Kepler

[roger]

I am amongst the few who believe that the shift change will be huge for Max.  And I don't say that because a lot more of his ground balls will become hits.  Rather, it will be a psychological change of how he approaches his at bats.  He will no longer be going to the plate thinking that no matter what he does he is going to be out with what appears as the entire team between first and second.  Yes, he could have, or even should have, learned how to defeat the shift by bunting and going to left field.  But for whatever reason, he didn't.

Now he will be going into 2023 knowing that defenders need to play where they did historically.  I expect he is going to become more of the hitter we saw in 2019, ie, will be hitting the ball harder and with more elevation.  The results just may, note I wrote may, be surprising.  And yes, I expect Max to be the Twins regular right fielder come opening day.  With their outfield depth, Max and all outfielders will get more time off.  Hopefully, the Manager will be smart about who plays and when?

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I never thought they had to but I think it makes a lot of sense. Given how little of a benefit Kepler is projected to get from the shift, his value may never be higher. If he goes out there and hits .210 and slugs .400 again the Twins are just going to decline his $10m option for 2024 and he's probably fighting for an MLB deal next winter. Even trading him for a serviceable reliever makes sense in that scenario but if they hold him for depth and not as a starting caliber player that's fine as well.

Where have you seen Kepler getting little benefit from the shift ban?  Basically every article out there has Kepler among the top five or so that were negatively impacted by the shift.  It stands to reason that he could see a pretty healthy spike with the shift gone.

FWIW - Joey Gallo saw a higher negative impact than Kepler.  Another reason why Gallo is a reasonable flyer to take here.

[Karbo]

I hope he rune more this year with the new rules. I don't know how the shift rule will play with him though as last year he hit so many soft grounders to 2nd.

[USNMCPO]

I want the Twins to keep playing Kepler because he is my wife's favorite player and I get less crap about watching the games when he is in the lineup.

[weitz41]

the FO signed a LH corner OF who plays good to great defense, spent $200 mil on a good to great defensive SS, spent $30 mil on a good defensive catcher and traded for a good to great defensive CFer. Other then Correa none of these players are good to great offensively. Which of these says they're in a hurry to trade a good to great defensive RFer? 

[Cody Pirkl]

47 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Where have you seen Kepler getting little benefit from the shift ban?  Basically every article out there has Kepler among the top five or so that were negatively impacted by the shift.  It stands to reason that he could see a pretty healthy spike with the shift gone.

FWIW - Joey Gallo saw a higher negative impact than Kepler.  Another reason why Gallo is a reasonable flyer to take here.

Linked in the article but Mike Petriello on Baseball Savant broke down Kepler's case for the shift change and basically determined that Kepler would only get a handful of singles per season. Among concerns noted, Kepler actually has a higher BABIP against the shift than without. Also noted is Kepler has hit the 5th most pop ups among all left handed hitters over the last 5 years. It's less about where the fielders are for Kepler and more about how poorly he impacts the ball and the launch angles he does it at. Yes he's a dead pull hitter which can be exploited by the shift, but when he's hitting the ball softly either straight up in the air or straight into the ground, the fielders don't matter.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Cody Pirkl

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Unfortunately this was a good article about Kep's limitations. What struck me was the ridiculous number of times Kep batted in the 1-4 spots in the batting order in 2022. This fact does not speak well for Rocco, who kept putting Kep in those spots in the batting order.  " The left side of the infield is wide open. And Kepler swings and hits a two-hopper to the second baseman, who throws him out at first."

Would you be surprised to know that Kepler's slash line in the 3-4 spots was .262/.352/.372 for a .724 OPS in 2022? And the Twins 3-4 hitters slashed .254/.333/.389 for a .722 OPS overall.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

But if several years of so-so hitting mean we have to ignore 2019’s hitting, why we would we ignore several years of great defense and anticipate “random variance” to lead to so-so defense this year? Could it happen? Sure, but so could another 2019 bat then. 

I’m probably jaded by last year, but “redundancy” looks different if AK can’t hit, pushing Gallo to first, and even one of Buxton, Larnach, Gordon is hurt or unproductive. With Burton’s health and Larnach and Gordon having combined for about one-half of a productive season, that doesn’t seem like a stretch. I hope those don’t happen, but it’s not a stretch to see them.

Folks are down on Kepler. I get that. But the Twin are not going to get much less for Kepler if they trade him in July compared to trading him now.

Let's be clear: It hasn't been several years of so-so hitting though, he's got a sub .700 OPS since 2020. In regards to the variance in his defensive value, at least by Fangraphs measures, 2022 was his best defensive season since 2016. If he drops down to even 2021 levels of defense he's probably closer to a 1 win player than the 2 win player he was in 2022.

And yes, if there's injuries he isn't redundant. I just question if the possibility of someone being hurt or ineffective offensively is enough of a reason to keep him around when he's fallen into both categories for several consecutive years now. 

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

His production can easily be replaced between Larnach / Gallo / Wallner and Gordon or at least very close to replaced.  By replaced I mean considering both offensive and defensive value and I would not be surprised if a couple of those options were considerably better offensively this year.   If they can get significant future value and spend the amount saved by trading Kepler on a BP piece, it's a no brainer for me.

This sums up the impetus for trading him, or really any one of Larnach, Gordon, or Kepler...whichever you think you get the best value for in shopping them all (throw Wallner in there if you want, I just don't think he will bring back any value at all)*.

Keeping them all means we essentially have 2 WAR players at the corner OF spots at all times. Trading any one of them and getting a RH COF/1B means potentially having a 3 WAR corner OF position if platooned correctly. 

Trading any one of those guys has the real potential for addition by subtraction. 

*And yes, I honestly don't care which one of those four is traded, as long as they are replaced on the roster by a lefty mashing COF/1B

[Cody Pirkl]

17 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Would you be surprised to know that Kepler's slash line in the 3-4 spots was .262/.352/.372 for a .724 OPS in 2022? And the Twins 3-4 hitters slashed .254/.333/.389 for a .722 OPS overall.

That's great but it's hard to look at that as more than just randomness. I wouldn't put him in the top of the lineup based on those numbers.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Where have you seen Kepler getting little benefit from the shift ban?  Basically every article out there has Kepler among the top five or so that were negatively impacted by the shift.  It stands to reason that he could see a pretty healthy spike with the shift gone.

FWIW - Joey Gallo saw a higher negative impact than Kepler.  Another reason why Gallo is a reasonable flyer to take here.

46 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Linked in the article but Mike Petriello on Baseball Savant broke down Kepler's case for the shift change and basically determined that Kepler would only get a handful of singles per season. Among concerns noted, Kepler actually has a higher BABIP against the shift than without. Also noted is Kepler has hit the 5th most pop ups among all left handed hitters over the last 5 years. It's less about where the fielders are for Kepler and more about how poorly he impacts the ball and the launch angles he does it at. Yes he's a dead pull hitter which can be exploited by the shift, but when he's hitting the ball softly either straight up in the air or straight into the ground, the fielders don't matter.

I haven't done a lot of digging, but Mike Petriello/Statcast, Eno Sarris, Ben Clemons (or someone at Fangraphs), and Aaron Gleeman, have all written or listed how Kepler will be one of the least impacted by the upcoming shift limitations. 

Those are the who's who of baseball analysis, especially Petriello and Sarris.

The shift is not his issue, poor quality of contact is.

A flat swing will do that. It means your margin for error with timing has to be near perfect as your bat spends almost no time in the center of the flight path of the pitch, often resulting in pop ups and ground balls if you are near, but not perfectly, on time. 

[gman]

I'd trade Kepler for the best offer as of March 15th. If they are overwhelmed before that pull the trigger. They've got some young guys that need to play and Kepler has had his time to prove or disprove what he can do. 8 years ago I looked forward to him batting third in the lineup and having a great career. That time has passed. If we can trade Arraez, we can trade Kepler. Don't know what we can get, but clear some roster space.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Linked in the article but Mike Petriello on Baseball Savant broke down Kepler's case for the shift change and basically determined that Kepler would only get a handful of singles per season. Among concerns noted, Kepler actually has a higher BABIP against the shift than without. Also noted is Kepler has hit the 5th most pop ups among all left handed hitters over the last 5 years. It's less about where the fielders are for Kepler and more about how poorly he impacts the ball and the launch angles he does it at. Yes he's a dead pull hitter which can be exploited by the shift, but when he's hitting the ball softly either straight up in the air or straight into the ground, the fielders don't matter.

Interesting, and thanks.

[rv78]

I have been saying for quite some time now that I see the Twins starting outfield in 2023 will be Gallo, Buxton and Kepler. Of course that will depend on Kirilloff being healthy enough to play 1B now that Arraez is gone. We could possibly see them shift Gallo to 1B and give LF to Gordon or Taylor, or Larnach if he's healthy. With the addition of Taylor I see Rocco rotating 1 corner outfield spot by trying to matchup lefty vs righty on a daily basis. Looking at the overall picture of the outfield a lot can be said when Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, and Gordon, 4 of your outfielders, really aren't good enough to play every day and you need to play them only when they have favorable matchups. (Although I disagree with Gordon being one of them). Maybe that's poor roster construction? Not playing your best 3 outfielders every day is poor managing, unless the FO doesn't give you 3 that are worthy of playing every day. It could also be viewed as OVER-managing which is still poor managing. No matter how you look at it, the Twins have one of the weakest hitting outfields in baseball. Here's hoping, Larnach, Lewis, Martin, Rodriguez will be able to change that in the not too distant future.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, roger said:

I am amongst the few who believe that the shift change will be huge for Max.  And I don't say that because a lot more of his ground balls will become hits.  Rather, it will be a psychological change of how he approaches his at bats.  He will no longer be going to the plate thinking that no matter what he does he is going to be out with what appears as the entire team between first and second.  Yes, he could have, or even should have, learned how to defeat the shift by bunting and going to left field.  But for whatever reason, he didn't.

Now he will be going into 2023 knowing that defenders need to play where they did historically.  I expect he is going to become more of the hitter we saw in 2019, ie, will be hitting the ball harder and with more elevation.  The results just may, note I wrote may, be surprising.  And yes, I expect Max to be the Twins regular right fielder come opening day.  With their outfield depth, Max and all outfielders will get more time off.  Hopefully, the Manager will be smart about who plays and when?

 

Agree - the lift of the shift was/is my hope for Kepler to come around. Had not seen the Gallo signing coming!! I think Max hits .255 or more this year.

Kepler was amongst the 85% of left handed batters that never bunted nor hit the ball to the left side - hence the rule change.

I was sure Kepler would be traded by now.

I guess we keep him, at least until the deadline & we can evaluate Gallo, because we can’t trust the  health of Kirilof nor Larnach.

I like Gallo - Gordon - Kepler left to right against LH starting pitching!!!! Larnach at DH & Kirilof at 1B. Big possibilities! 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

That's great but it's hard to look at that as more than just randomness. I wouldn't put him in the top of the lineup based on those numbers.

Bat him 4th then,  at least against RH pitching. Put Polanco behind him to help keep him protected.

Assuming he didn’t bat 3-4 against any lefties NOR after he got hurt!

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I have been saying for quite some time now that I see the Twins starting outfield in 2023 will be Gallo, Buxton and Kepler. Of course that will depend on Kirilloff being healthy enough to play 1B now that Arraez is gone. We could possibly see them shift Gallo to 1B and give LF to Gordon or Taylor, or Larnach if he's healthy. With the addition of Taylor I see Rocco rotating 1 corner outfield spot by trying to matchup lefty vs righty on a daily basis. Looking at the overall picture of the outfield a lot can be said when Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, and Gordon, 4 of your outfielders, really aren't good enough to play every day and you need to play them only when they have favorable matchups. (Although I disagree with Gordon being one of them). Maybe that's poor roster construction? Not playing your best 3 outfielders every day is poor managing, unless the FO doesn't give you 3 that are worthy of playing every day. It could also be viewed as OVER-managing which is still poor managing. No matter how you look at it, the Twins have one of the weakest hitting outfields in baseball. Here's hoping, Larnach, Lewis, Martin, Rodriguez will be able to change that in the not too distant future.

Not sure why Gordon can’t play 135 games in OF in ‘23? He gained 25lb from January - June and played whenever needed & wherever needed last year. Much stronger & more stamina.

85 starts in LF - 50 starts in CF in ‘23.

.272 BA in ‘22

28 doubles - 9 HR - 98 OF starts in ‘22 - 405 AB’s 

Why wouldn’t he hit 38 doubles & 12 HR in 575 AB’s in ‘23?? I think he’s gotta play daily & deserves to play daily after last season.

[Cody Pirkl]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bat him 4th then,  at least against RH pitching. Put Polanco behind him to help keep him protected.

Assuming he didn’t bat 3-4 against any lefties NOR after he got hurt!

I'd guess 2, 3, 4 is some mix of Buxton, Polanco, Correa. I really don't think we want Max Kepler anywhere near the top of the lineup. He's hitting .217/.311/.379 over the last two seasons.

I don't have much faith in the shift saving him, but why don't we put him at the bottom of the lineup where his performance suggests he belongs and if the shift helps him that much we can adjust later?

[mikelink45]

Not a fan of Kepler or Gallo.  I want Larnach in OF, Kiriloff at 1B.  I know that dreaming of Gallo leaving is not going to work for me, but Kepler seems to have value that might be best recognized if he has a good spring training. Our OF list is too long. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, USNMCPO said:

I want the Twins to keep playing Kepler because he is my wife's favorite player and I get less crap about watching the games when he is in the lineup.

This is the most convincing argument I've seen on either side of the topic. 

KEEP KEPLER, for the good of USNMCPO's marriage!

 

[Althebum82]

Is it possible that the team has tried to tried Kepler and just not been able to find anyone interested enough to provide something that the Twins value in exchange?

 

[JD-TWINS]

13 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

Is it possible that the team has tried to tried Kepler and just not been able to find anyone interested enough to provide something that the Twins value in exchange?

 

SURELY!!

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

And yes, if there's injuries he isn't redundant. I just question if the possibility of someone being hurt or ineffective offensively is enough of a reason to keep him around when he's fallen into both categories for several consecutive years now. 

This is a great point. 

If he is the same hitter as has been the past two years (Same goes for Gallo). We wouldn't want him to replace someone hurt or ineffective because you'd just be replacing ineffective with ineffective. You would cut him much like we cut Duffey last year. Give someone else the chance to help us or develop if we are beyond help.

The only way I see it working is if he is productive with the bat and he needs to earn it after two years. If he doesn't... he shouldn't be here in August.  

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Let's be clear: It hasn't been several years of so-so hitting though, he's got a sub .700 OPS since 2020. In regards to the variance in his defensive value, at least by Fangraphs measures, 2022 was his best defensive season since 2016. If he drops down to even 2021 levels of defense he's probably closer to a 1 win player than the 2 win player he was in 2022.

 

Another good point. Last year in August and September we had decent OF defense with Cave, Celestino and Kepler while 5 through 9 (including Sanchez) in the batting order was as offensively unproductive as offensively unproductive can be. 

This 2 win player measurement helped Cleveland run right past us. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Would you be surprised to know that Kepler's slash line in the 3-4 spots was .262/.352/.372 for a .724 OPS in 2022? And the Twins 3-4 hitters slashed .254/.333/.389 for a .722 OPS overall.

I am surprised to be told this.  That is not too bad a performance by Kep. Maybe Rocco knows more about Twins' lineups than I do. Thank you.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I like keeping Kep around for two reasons.  1) Let's see how he does with the shift changes. 2) I love the thought of him in RF with Buck in center and Gallo in LF for their defense.  They can chase down lots of line drives and get some OF assists with their arms.

If he has issues throughout the first half of the year or does well but we have others pushing him out of a starting role, then look to trade him at the deadline.

Maybe Kep can platoon in right field with  gold glove winner Michael A. Taylor, who hits left handed pitching very well.

[IndianaTwin]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

SURELY!!

I agree, and...

[DocBauer]

Huge Kepler fan. Been rooting for the kid since he was signed and has been one of my favorite players. Even still  I can see his time with the Twins is probably coming to an end.

With Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and possibly Lewis you have younger, less expensive options that are likely to be better offensive players based on what Max has done the past 2yrs, and most of his career, ignoring that great 2019. Again, huge fan. Always wanted him to reach All Star status. He's a nice ballplayer. But just a glimpse and brief overview of his career page on any site will show you he's an average producer for his career. 

I hope the more limited shift will help him. I really do. But it's only going to give him maybe a dozen more hits if he can't figure out how to hit the ball hard again. Strong, athletic, still young, where did his power go to?

But there's no need to rush on a trade of Max, unless the deal is just too good to pass up. Larnach will get time in both corners and DH. Wallner wouldn't be hurt with a little more refinement time in St Paul. If Gallo doesn't become his old self again, keeping Kepler has given you more options. If Gallo does become his old self again, and Krilloff isn't ready yet, Gallo helps cover 1B and again Kepler is providing depth options.

I do think Kepler is gone fairly soon. I just don't know if it's now, mid season, or the end of the season. But I think its OK to not rush things either.

[Beast]

Who else was supposed to hit in those 1-4 spots in the order?  That roster has stunk since the end of 2019.  

Nick Gordon?  Who, by the way, has the exact same career OPS+ as Kepler while being much worse defensively.  But, people act as if he’s a rising star while simultaneously calling for Kepler to be traded or benched.

You need to have a better player to replace him.  We don’t have one that’s been able to play RF and stay on the field.

[LA VIkes Fan]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure why Gordon can’t play 135 games in OF in ‘23? He gained 25lb from January - June and played whenever needed & wherever needed last year. Much stronger & more stamina.

85 starts in LF - 50 starts in CF in ‘23.

.272 BA in ‘22

28 doubles - 9 HR - 98 OF starts in ‘22 - 405 AB’s 

Why wouldn’t he hit 38 doubles & 12 HR in 575 AB’s in ‘23?? I think he’s gotta play daily & deserves to play daily after last season.

This is the conundrum, made even bigger by the presence of Larnach. No problem with keeping Kepler IF he's the 4th OF/defensive sub, hitting 7th or lower when he plays. The problem is that Rocco has been not only playing him every day, he often hits him in the top 6. The issue isn't that Kepler is a bad player. He's not; he's an above average fielder with a below average bat playing a premium offensive position. In other words, he's a below average RF overall.  Conversely, Gordon outplayed him last year overall and Larnach has shown real promise. Keeping Kepler and playing him the way Rocco does creates a real lost opportunity cost by not giving that playing time and at bats to a guy who played better last year (Gordon) and a guy who has flashed a much higher upside (Laranch). Why on earth would we do that  IF WE ARE TRYING TO GET BETTER as a Team? 

I want this team to contend THIS YEAR and I think we are close to that mark. The missing links include a better hitting OF than Kepler. I don't dislike the guy and would be fine with him playing 2-3 games a week against RH pitching but you just KNOW that Rocco won't do that. It's time to move on and I think a trade is the only way we can do that. 

 

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure why Gordon can’t play 135 games in OF in ‘23? He gained 25lb from January - June and played whenever needed & wherever needed last year. Much stronger & more stamina.

85 starts in LF - 50 starts in CF in ‘23.

.272 BA in ‘22

28 doubles - 9 HR - 98 OF starts in ‘22 - 405 AB’s 

Why wouldn’t he hit 38 doubles & 12 HR in 575 AB’s in ‘23?? I think he’s gotta play daily & deserves to play daily after last season.

He played nearly every day in Sep/Oct and slashed .252/.298/.396 (.694 OPS) compared to .279/.323/.439 (.762 OPS) through August 31 as a part time/utility player. He also slashed .200/.298/.275 (.542 OPS) vs LHP compared to .289/.329/.465 (.793 OPS) vs RHP. He is best suited to a utility/platoon role.