The Twins Need to be Realistic With Max Kepler

[Cody Pirkl]

At points this winter, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that Max Kepler was headed out of Minnesota. It’s starting to look like he’s staying, however, which means it’s time for the Twins to realize what they have in their former everyday right fielder.

Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports

 

There have been points this winter where we were waiting for a Max Kepler trade announcement within the coming hours, such as when Joey Gallo was signed. Here we are at the end of January, however, and not only is Max Kepler still a Twin, it appears that may not change after all.

When Disco Dan Hayes makes such a statement, it’s wise to listen. The Twins still see value in Kepler, at least more than other teams appear to on the trade market. It’s a fair stance. It’s hard to trade a player for less than a team feels they’re worth. That being said, if Max Kepler stays in Minnesota another year, the Twins need to get realistic about what they have in their homegrown corner outfielder.

Max Kepler was seen as a breakout candidate for years before finally doing so in 2019. His 122 wRC+ that year made him appear to be a future star player, slugging 36 homers and crushing lefties, his biggest weakness as a hitter. We now have about 1,500 plate appearances prior to 2019 and over 1000 after saying that Max Kepler is not the player he was in 2019, and it’s time the Twins stop pretending he is.

The realistic description of Max Kepler is that he’s a defense first strong side platoon player with a plate approach that should keep him out of the everyday lineup. In about 1,100 plate appearances since 2019, Max Kepler has slashed .220/.314/.392. His 98 wRC+ is 2% below league average for that time period, but playing the premier offensive position of corner outfield means that he’s even further below average than that relative to his positional peers. 

The Twins roster is ripe with reasons for Max Kepler not to have right field locked down everyday. Trevor Larnach nearly had as many Defensive Runs saved as Kepler in far fewer innings defensively in 2022, and there’s still a chance he hits left handed pitching and becomes a legitimate everyday player. Joey Gallo, for as much hate as he gets, is a legit plus player in the outfield defensively, and his career wRC+ is over 30 points higher against left handed pitching while his splits against right handed pitching are nearly identical to Kepler. Newly added outfielder Michael Taylor, who is known for being a non contributor offensively, blows Kepler away against left handed pitching for their careers.

 In 2022, Max Kepler took 60% of his plate appearances in the 1-4 spots of the lineup and about 43% of his plate appearances in the cleanup spot. There’s simply no justification for the Twins to continue this moving forward. With a career .744 OPS, Kepler hasn’t even reached the .720 mark since the shortened 2020 season. Even against right handed pitching Kepler has been surpassed by players such as Nick Gordon, who performed considerably better offensively as a platoon player in 2022. The Twins have assembled enough depth to keep Kepler from hitting in the heart of the lineup, and from playing in same-handed matchups at all. At 30 years old it’s time to recognize that this is the caliber of player that Max Kepler is.

All of this to say that Max Kepler is a fine player… as a depth piece. There will be times where his defensive value is needed, and given the Twins recent injuries, he'll be a fine everyday fill-in for short periods if need be. In terms of 2022 calculated value per WAR, Kepler was still a value as he was paid $6.75m and was worth a bit over $10m by 2022 free agency measures. His $8.5m salary in 2023 and $10m team option for 2024 become much more in question however.

If Kepler plays less in 2023 and/or his defensive value declines even slightly, he becomes less of a value and a prime candidate to have his 2024 option declined. This is why it’s still somewhat puzzling that the Twins don’t appear to be determined to trade him. With the shift ban on the horizon, it’s not a stretch to call it likely that Kepler’s value may never be higher despite the fact that it doesn’t look like he’ll benefit all that much from the rule change.

The Twins may still very well trade Max Kepler. If they don’t however, they need to use him in an appropriate role. He’s not a player whose performance demands at bats. He’s not part of the core of the lineup.

 

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[pierre75275]

I think the Twins roster is pretty much set, although I would love for them to sign Chafin or Moore. That being said, I think the Twins should over the course of the next year look to trade Kepler and Polanco for the best prospects they can get regardless of position. 

I just think with the outfielders they have and the infield depth (catcher notwithstanding) and the starting pitching depth that prospects is their best bet 

[twinfan]

While I wouldn't trade Polanco, I can see them trading Kepler (but I wouldn't) though I think he will benefit with the end of the shift. Much depends on what they can/will get for Max. I like him since I am also Jewish so I hope that, if he is traded, that it's to the Yankees.

 

[Dman]

Unless the Twins feel payroll would be an issue as it stands they have the 40 man room to keep Kepler. When they put Canterino, Paddack, and Lewis on the IL they will have three 40 man spots open up so they can get a 1st baseman and a couple of relievers if they want to.  

I don't think they should just give Kepler away as they are an injury or two away from needing him and they had lots of injuries last year.  I think they would likely gain better leverage if another team has injuries and needs Max and is willing to overpay to get a deal done.

Things could change or open up once teams IL spots open up so I wouldn't say Max is safe just yet.  But I like that the Twins are wiling to be patient and see alternate scenario's for Kepler.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

if they perceive themselves to be tapped out budget wise -- whatever -- they should trade kepler and sign luke voit and michael fulmer for that amount of cash.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Kepler still a Twin on opening day?  Gallo playing 1B?  Where have I heard that before...

I don't think anybody has said that he is a long term piece of the puzzle or a "core" piece.  But he does have value, more than people think.  He should benefit from the shift ban and he is a very reasonably priced piece batting 7th.

Let the "We have to trade Kepler!" screaming commence.

[umterp23]

I would still move him and send him to Pirates who start their 5-year plan over each year.  Kepler is at best a 4th OF on the team vs Lefties and maybe a 3rd OF vs Righties and that's a strong maybe in my opinion.  

[Blyleven2011]

Love his defense but his hitting he just seems lost in making adjustments  ...

If he stays don't bat him 1 through 4 in the batter order , play him as a defensive replacement off the bench  ...

It was an amazing year in 2019 as he and other players had career years that most likely won't be duplicated  ... 

I never like trading players but a change of scenery could help Kepler with new coaching and advice  , as a twin he's lost here in his approach ...

If I'm the other team I see value in Kepler as a defensive specialist ...

[Nick Hanzlik]

WE HAVE TO TRADE KEPLER!

lol, no in reality I am very ok holding onto him. part of it is personal bias as I just really enjoy Kepler. He was a guy I always rooted for and thought would be a legit allstar caliber player. At this point, I think that time has passed, though I would love to put my foot in my  mouth at the end of the year. I think this article nailed it with his usage. Maybe a platoon with him and Taylor for RHP vs LHP? Then maybe package Larnach with Polanco or something for another big arm. IDK just spitballing. I think the Twins make one more big move before the season starts

[Muppet]

To me the problem is that they don't have anyone better as a replacement. Taylor and Gallo are both supposedly great defensively. Taylor's numbers look about the same to me (I'm concerned about 2022 numbers, not career numbers) and Gallo looks like he fills a Sano sized hole. Larnach, if healthy, is too young to be a proven asset (though I hope and expect he will be) and besides, if he fits the bill, he'll probably be in LF. 

One thing I do wonder, though, is whether it is OK to have a poor defending RF when Buxton is healthy. Can't they afford a RF with less range? Especially if it means replacing the bat with someone who might actually move a runner forward? If that's the case, I put Gordon in right... until Buxton is hurt. 

[Nashvilletwin]

“Joey Gallo will play a lot of 1B early as Alex Kiriloff is worked back in”. Talk about waking up to a day killer comment…..

Re Max, he’s one of my favorites and I’ve cheered hard for him. He makes the occasional great play in the field, but otherwise he’s now a complete snooze fest at the plate. With Taylor and Gallo, his skill base, especially given his cost, is pretty much redundant. There is no reason to turn on the game or show up at the park to watch Max.

He will/should be moved and the capital redeployed into the pen. If not, it will be an off-season failure for the FO.

Boy, Buxton better play a lot of CF this year and be good doing it - otherwise, we will probably have the lightest hitting OF in the majors.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Unfortunately this was a good article about Kep's limitations. What struck me was the ridiculous number of times Kep batted in the 1-4 spots in the batting order in 2022. This fact does not speak well for Rocco, who kept putting Kep in those spots in the batting order.  " The left side of the infield is wide open. And Kepler swings and hits a two-hopper to the second baseman, who throws him out at first."

[tarheeltwinsfan]

18 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

I would still move him and send him to Pirates who start their 5-year plan over each year.  Kepler is at best a 4th OF on the team vs Lefties and maybe a 3rd OF vs Righties and that's a strong maybe in my opinion.  

Try to get Henry Davis also, who is a top 10 catching prospect with a great arm for the Pirates. Add Noah Miller, or newly acquired Salas (both SS's) from the Twins and Davis from the Pirates to this trade.

[Cody Pirkl]

15 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Kepler still a Twin on opening day?  Gallo playing 1B?  Where have I heard that before...

I don't think anybody has said that he is a long term piece of the puzzle or a "core" piece.  But he does have value, more than people think.  He should benefit from the shift ban and he is a very reasonably priced piece batting 7th.

Let the "We have to trade Kepler!" screaming commence.

I never thought they had to but I think it makes a lot of sense. Given how little of a benefit Kepler is projected to get from the shift, his value may never be higher. If he goes out there and hits .210 and slugs .400 again the Twins are just going to decline his $10m option for 2024 and he's probably fighting for an MLB deal next winter. Even trading him for a serviceable reliever makes sense in that scenario but if they hold him for depth and not as a starting caliber player that's fine as well.

[Trov]

18 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

I would still move him and send him to Pirates who start their 5-year plan over each year.  Kepler is at best a 4th OF on the team vs Lefties and maybe a 3rd OF vs Righties and that's a strong maybe in my opinion.  

Why would Pirates have any interest in Kepler?  I get Winder and a pick, but why Kepler?  They are in no way going to be competing in the next few years.  He adds nothing to their team.  Suer, the magic trade machine says they fit, but you need to remember the team taking on someone like Kepler will want to be in win now mode, if they are giving away assets.  Would Pirates take him if he was put on waivers, maybe, but they would never give up an asset to get him, as he does not fit their plans going forward. 

[Cody Pirkl]

14 minutes ago, Nick Hanzlik said:

WE HAVE TO TRADE KEPLER!

lol, no in reality I am very ok holding onto him. part of it is personal bias as I just really enjoy Kepler. He was a guy I always rooted for and thought would be a legit allstar caliber player. At this point, I think that time has passed, though I would love to put my foot in my  mouth at the end of the year. I think this article nailed it with his usage. Maybe a platoon with him and Taylor for RHP vs LHP? Then maybe package Larnach with Polanco or something for another big arm. IDK just spitballing. I think the Twins make one more big move before the season starts

FWIW I have two Kepler jerseys. He's one of my favorite Twins from that 2019-2020 back to back division leaders teams. Just an unfortunate reality of baseball however that he's been a part of the injury problems the last few years and hasn't been an offensive contributor in really any fashion. Twins were saying he had legitimate value in trade which was when I really came around to trading him. If that's changed and they see more value in keeping him now I'm cool with it. I'm just really going to question what we're doing if he's in the top half of the lineup on opening day.

[Cody Pirkl]

16 minutes ago, Muppet said:

To me the problem is that they don't have anyone better as a replacement. Taylor and Gallo are both supposedly great defensively. Taylor's numbers look about the same to me (I'm concerned about 2022 numbers, not career numbers) and Gallo looks like he fills a Sano sized hole. Larnach, if healthy, is too young to be a proven asset (though I hope and expect he will be) and besides, if he fits the bill, he'll probably be in LF. 

One thing I do wonder, though, is whether it is OK to have a poor defending RF when Buxton is healthy. Can't they afford a RF with less range? Especially if it means replacing the bat with someone who might actually move a runner forward? If that's the case, I put Gordon in right... until Buxton is hurt. 

FWIW, Gallo's wRC+ against lefties in his career is about 20% higher than Kepler's and their matchups against righties are about the same. Taylor's splits against lefties is also much better than Kepler's. Between those two and Larnach who graded incredibly well in LF last season, I find Kepler pretty redundant. I think he's the second worst outfield option on the team with a lefty pitching and is probably 5th best against righties behind Buxton, Gallo, Larnach, and Gordon. I think when a guy is that far down on the depth chart because of offense we have to start wondering just how valuable their defense really is.

[Doctor Gast]

Kepler isn’t the player of ‘19 because of the juiced ball. Nor is he the player with the shift. He is the no shift player but everyone wants to pay for the preban Kepler. FO is right not selling him cheap. The real Kepler will show up this Spring and he’ll be in demand. Be patient and don’t do anything stupid. In the meantime. He should start.

[Trov]

I have been saying all along people are over valuing Kepler.  I keep seeing suggested trades to all kinds of teams, not understanding the very limited market Kepler will draw.  Kepler is a good, but not great player.  He is best on a team that is looking to fill that last OF spot, or a 4th OF kind of spot.  No rebuilding team will have interest in him because of his age most likely does not line up with their timeline.  Which leaves just a few teams, like the Yankees, left.  Those teams will not be willing to give up current MLB talent most likely as they are competing and will not want to deplete current talent, unless they have huge excess.  

Some fans think with the anti-shift rule Kepler's numbers will increase, you will be disappointed I believe. That being said, I would be fine with keeping him, let him hit bottom of order.  

[Major League Ready]

His production can easily be replaced between Larnach / Gallo / Wallner and Gordon or at least very close to replaced.  By replaced I mean considering both offensive and defensive value and I would not be surprised if a couple of those options were considerably better offensively this year.   If they can get significant future value and spend the amount saved by trading Kepler on a BP piece, it's a no brainer for me.

[IndianaTwin]

12 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Unfortunately this was a good article about Kep's limitations. What struck me was the ridiculous number of times Kep batted in the 1-4 spots in the batting order in 2022. This fact does not speak well for Rocco, who kept putting Kep in those spots in the batting order.  " The left side of the infield is wide open. And Kepler swings and hits a two-hopper to the second baseman, who throws him out at first."

The reference to Kepler in the top four spots needs a deeper look. He batted very rarely in the top three spots (18 games). He was No. 4 in 44 games, but the vast majority of those were between games 60 and 96, when their other options were an as-yet-unproven Miranda, Celestino, Sanchez/Jeffers, Kirilloff, an unproven Gordon, Cave, etc. In a decent number of games in that stretch, he did bat fourth in front of Polanco, but that’s more about batting lefties 1-4-7.

Don’t forget as well that by definition, the top of the order gets more plate appearance. The 1-4 spots don’t get just 4/9 of the plate appearances (44.4%) as a team. Last year, they got nearly 50 percent. 

The opening statement says it’s time for the Twins to “realize what they have” in Kepler. I think it’s precisely because they DO realize what they have that they haven’t traded him. He’s the quintessential “floor” player. If he stays healthy, plays a great right field, and bats ninth on a regular basis (which is where I think his skill set fits best with the current roster), that’s a good lineup. 

At this point, if they do end up trading him, I hope it’s for a reliever, but I’d rather just sign a Fulmer type or two. 

[IndianaTwin]

18 minutes ago, Trov said:

Why would Pirates have any interest in Kepler?  I get Winder and a pick, but why Kepler?  They are in no way going to be competing in the next few years.  He adds nothing to their team.  Suer, the magic trade machine says they fit, but you need to remember the team taking on someone like Kepler will want to be in win now mode, if they are giving away assets.  Would Pirates take him if he was put on waivers, maybe, but they would never give up an asset to get him, as he does not fit their plans going forward. 

Right — why would a team on a “five-year-plan” prioritize a two-year outfielder. Not to mention that the “magic trade machine” isn’t that magic. According to it, the Arraez trade wasn’t even close to even, with the Twins winning in a big way. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like keeping Kep around for two reasons.  1) Let's see how he does with the shift changes. 2) I love the thought of him in RF with Buck in center and Gallo in LF for their defense.  They can chase down lots of line drives and get some OF assists with their arms.

If he has issues throughout the first half of the year or does well but we have others pushing him out of a starting role, then look to trade him at the deadline.

[Cody Pirkl]

15 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

The reference to Kepler in the top four spots needs a deeper look. He batted very rarely in the top three spots (18 games). He was No. 4 in 44 games, but the vast majority of those were between games 60 and 96, when their other options were an as-yet-unproven Miranda, Celestino, Sanchez/Jeffers, Kirilloff, an unproven Gordon, Cave, etc. In a decent number of games in that stretch, he did bat fourth in front of Polanco, but that’s more about batting lefties 1-4-7.

Don’t forget as well that by definition, the top of the order gets more plate appearance. The 1-4 spots don’t get just 4/9 of the plate appearances (44.4%) as a team. Last year, they got nearly 50 percent. 

The opening statement says it’s time for the Twins to “realize what they have” in Kepler. I think it’s precisely because they DO realize what they have that they haven’t traded him. He’s the quintessential “floor” player. If he stays healthy, plays a great right field, and bats ninth on a regular basis (which is where I think his skill set fits best with the current roster), that’s a good lineup. 

At this point, if they do end up trading him, I hope it’s for a reliever, but I’d rather just sign a Fulmer type or two. 

The injury context is real for Kepler's spots in the order last season, I meant that more as an "I hope they learned those days are behind him" rather than trying to chastise them for putting him there. When they really needed him to step up because they had no other choice, he was absolutely terrible and eventually wasn't even available himself which I think needs to be learned from which is the bigger point I wanted to make.

I personally don't know that I look at him as much of a floor player anymore either. People look at defensive value as fairly safe but even random variance could lead to a down defensive season for him, look at Correa's metrics last year. If he isn't truly elite defensively and is below average at the plate against lefties and righties again, he's the definition of replaceable. You could possibly even call him a net negative on the roster if that's the case.

My whole thing behind trading Kepler is basically that I find him incredibly redundant on this roster and I think it's become far more likely that his once cheap $10m option is declined for 2024. Might as well get some kind of value on him now.

 

[miller761]

Let the playing field decide what action or non action needs to be taken. Even by his not so pretty 2022 stats he is economically priced as far as payroll and value are concerned, There is a chance he rebounds with the new rules and even swipes some bags. If that happens you have a valuable piece going forward whether on the field or to trade. If he stays at 2022 levels on the field you still have the same value at the trade deadline as you have now. My hope and prediction is that he finally gets it and adjusts launch angle on his swing and we will enjoy watching him play for the Twins this year.

[Nick Hanzlik]

9 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Let the playing field decide what action or non action needs to be taken. Even by his not so pretty 2022 stats he is economically priced as far as payroll and value are concerned, There is a chance he rebounds with the new rules and even swipes some bags. If that happens you have a valuable piece going forward whether on the field or to trade. If he stays at 2022 levels on the field you still have the same value at the trade deadline as you have now. My hope and prediction is that he finally gets it and adjusts launch angle on his swing and we will enjoy watching him play for the Twins this year.

I hope so too my friend. I have always liked Kepler. If they decided to let him start in RF to begin the season, maybe just do it from the 9 hole though lol...

[PseudoSABR]

I think he could certainly gain more value as an offensive asset by no longer having to play against the shift; then you could deal him at the deadline for a potentially unexpected need, rather than dealing him now for prospects.

[IndianaTwin]

33 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

The injury context is real for Kepler's spots in the order last season, I meant that more as an "I hope they learned those days are behind him" rather than trying to chastise them for putting him there. When they really needed him to step up because they had no other choice, he was absolutely terrible and eventually wasn't even available himself which I think needs to be learned from which is the bigger point I wanted to make.

I personally don't know that I look at him as much of a floor player anymore either. People look at defensive value as fairly safe but even random variance could lead to a down defensive season for him, look at Correa's metrics last year. If he isn't truly elite defensively and is below average at the plate against lefties and righties again, he's the definition of replaceable. You could possibly even call him a net negative on the roster if that's the case.

My whole thing behind trading Kepler is basically that I find him incredibly redundant on this roster and I think it's become far more likely that his once cheap $10m option is declined for 2024. Might as well get some kind of value on him now.

 

But if several years of so-so hitting mean we have to ignore 2019’s hitting, why we would we ignore several years of great defense and anticipate “random variance” to lead to so-so defense this year? Could it happen? Sure, but so could another 2019 bat then. 

I’m probably jaded by last year, but “redundancy” looks different if AK can’t hit, pushing Gallo to first, and even one of Buxton, Larnach, Gordon is hurt or unproductive. With Burton’s health and Larnach and Gordon having combined for about one-half of a productive season, that doesn’t seem like a stretch. I hope those don’t happen, but it’s not a stretch to see them.

Folks are down on Kepler. I get that. But the Twin are not going to get much less for Kepler if they trade him in July compared to trading him now.

[Trov]

Kepler is the perfect example of looking to sell high on a guy.  Sometimes it bites you, sometimes it bites the other team.  After 2019, Keplers value could not have been higher.  He was coming off what we all were hoping was breakout season.  Some were thinking he would take another step and be even better.  He was also signed long term on team friendly deal, if he progressed as some had hoped.  I will admit, I was one that hoped he would keep growing, and was not asking for a trade.  However, if we had traded him then, we would have maxed his value.  There would have been larger market for him, and teams would have offered more for him.  Now he has little value 2 years later. 

If we would have traded him then, fans would have been upset, but it would have been the better move, too bad we cannot go back. 

[Riverbrian]

Good Article - Fair Assessment in my opinion. 

I've been hard on Kepler and I don't want to be hard on him anymore. I truly want him to succeed and I hope he does in a Twins uniform... we can really use a Max Kepler playing above average.  

If I had Kepler - I wouldn't trade him

If I didn't have Kepler - I wouldn't trade for him. 

We are not in the current position to be skinny with our outfield options.

I'm all for giving him the opportunity to win the job... I am against simply giving him the job. 

It's easy to look at all of these options and say let's clear some people out of there but we need the depth and the competition just to find the players who will get the job done assuming that some might not.

Don't want to choose wrong and be left with players who are not hitting with no place to turn. Let them compete and then clear out the ones who lose the competition.