Pablo Lopez's Elite Changeup Could Take Him to the Next Level

[Lou Hennessy]

The great Johan Santana spoiled Twins fans in the mid-2000s, and they’ve been begging for another bonafide ace since he was traded to the New York Mets. While it’s unfair to compare anyone in the current rotation to peak-Johan, the newest member of the staff boasts a similar primary weapon. 

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Pablo Lopez may be seen as a pitcher in a similar mold to his new rotation counterparts. He, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Ryan are all seen as solid number two or three starters but are a rung short of landing on the ace level of the pitching ladder.

Lopez, however, may have the best chance of taking his game to the next level if he can find a way to ride his already-lethal changeup. 

If the Twins can work with him to maintain the effectiveness of his off-speed offering while improving the shape and efficacy of his four-seam fastball, they could finally find their long-awaited ace.

Hitters already had a hard time squaring him up last season, as evidenced by his overall chase rate (70th percentile) and Hard-Hit percentage (71st percentile). The changeup is a major part of that. In 2022, he threw that pitch 35.3% of the time and saw strong results. Opposing hitters batted just .220 (.233 expected) with a .374 slugging percentage (.366 expected) on his changeup, making it an ideal chase pitch when the count reached two strikes. When he got to that point in an at-bat, he threw his changeup 39% of the time, which is second-most among all qualified starters. 

There’s a good reason for that. 

Rylan Domingues of Tread Athletics pointed out that their grading program ranked Lopez’s changeup as being 16% better than an MLB average changeup when it comes to pure wStuff+. That uses pitch metrics such as movement, shape, and velocity without knowing the pitch location. Beyond that, Lopez’s changeup was elite when the location was considered. Tread Athletics rated it as an eye-popping 64% better than the league average based on wExecution+. Overall, they rated Lopez as having the fourth-best changeup in all baseball in 2022. It averaged 17.3 inches of horizontal break, which is 2.5 inches (19%) above average. No wonder he used it so much with two strikes. 

That’s got to have Twins fans rubbing their hands together and licking their lips. A legitimate, elite out pitch can be extremely hard to develop and maintain, but the club feels like Lopez has a chance to take it to the next level. 

To do that, Lopez will have to rework his four-seam fastball so it can be as effective as it was in the first half of the 2022 season. For the changeup to be most successful, it needs to deceive the batter into thinking that they’re getting a different pitch so that they either miss the ball entirely or make weak contact. 

Esteban Rivera of Fangraphs described the issues that Lopez’s fastball faced after a liner struck him on his right wrist in mid-June. From that point on, Lopez started using a slightly lower release point, which caused him to lose active spin on his heater. Was he pitching hurt, or was this a subconscious result after the injury? Either way, the event changed the shape of his fastball and, in turn, made it easier for hitters to identify the subtle differences between that pitch and his changeup. When he lost that deception, he lost the swing-and-miss stuff that made his off-speed so successful. 

If pitching coach Pete Maki can reestablish the proper release point on that fastball, or at least find a way to shape it so that it tunnels with the path of his changeup, they could rediscover what gave Lopez a sterling 2.86 ERA in the first half of last season. 

That ceiling has been seemingly absent in the last two seasons. Gray, Ryan, and the rest have shown the capability of being quality starters in that time, but they’ve stalled out before reaching that last rung of the ladder. Don’t be mistaken; their presence is incredibly valuable in a rotation. But Lopez’s changeup gives him greater reach when he stretches toward the top level. 

And if he can’t get there? Fans always have the option to watch those old Johan highlights.

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[Craig Arko]

Frank Viola and Brad Radke were also changeup masters. Approaching any of the three would be a great achievement and a huge asset. 

[se7799]

I know I can be very optimistic.  But I honestly believe one of our starters will establish themselves as a solid number 1 this season.  Plenty of options and opportunities arise.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Very interesting article. Thanks Lou. Nicely done.

[BsuNemo]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

I know I can be very optimistic.  But I honestly believe one of our starters will establish themselves as a solid number 1 this season.  Plenty of options and opportunities arise.

I think if Gray stays healthy and is allowed to go deeper into games he will be that guy. He knows how to pitch and he can throw. 

[DocBauer]

A very nice breakdown on Lopez and the drop in the 2nd half I had heard about but was unsure of as to the reason. 

I would much rather have a pitcher needing to re-slot his FB delivery to gain back his effectiveness than trying to figure out delivery issues with his best breaking ball, or his change. It fills me with more optimism as to what Lopez might bring to the rotation. I still have a hard time projecting a 26yo...even coming off his best overall year...as jumping to #1 status simply because I believe in experience being such a factor in all pitchers, but especially for those who do achieve that front line status. I've long maintained that despite talent and stuff, there is a point where something "clicks" in certain guys where they just KNOW how to use their stuff better in certain situations. 

I know questions remain for most of the rotation. And I don't know that I can predict a single arm to really be that #1 guy for 2023. I mean, Gray was rushing to get ramped up and then had hamstring issues. But with a normal offseason and normal ST, he could easily be the Twins best starter. If Mahle's own personal diagnosis is correct that he just threw too much, too hard, etc, too early after the weird offseason and short ST and he really doesn't have anything wrong physically, (which a pair of MRIs say is true), he could be out best. But with the information revealed here in the OP, I can see the potential for Lopez to emerge as the Twins #1 for 2023. Maybe not approaching ACE status, but I can see the path to him being the #1.

[joefish]

5 hours ago, BsuNemo said:

I think if Gray stays healthy and is allowed to go deeper into games he will be that guy. He knows how to pitch and he can throw. 

I really like the way Sonny pitches. I like watching him throw. He is almost an Artist. Almost an Ace. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Thanks for providing the link to Rylan Domingues of Tread Athletics.  Is that someone you follow, or was that just a random piece of info you came across. Looks like they have some pretty interesting analysis.

[Karbo]

Mahle has the potential to be a #1 approaching an ace, and lets not forget about Paddock, who has a ton of potential IF he can regain and stay healthy.

[wabene]

Let's consider the curve ball as well. I read, probably on this site, that he has a good one but just doesn't use it much. Top pitchers need a3rd pitch, eh? I'd like to hear more about that pitch. We've all heard about his poor second half. If it is due to an injury not just fatigue that could be good for his future presuming he's healed up. 

[miracleb]

I would like to be positive regarding Mahle....but shoulder injuries typically just don't "go away."  Hope I'm wrong....but that is going to be troublesome......

[Trov]

I have long been a big fan of the change up as the best off-speed pitch for guys.  If the change-up is good, to me that is the best for a guy.  The reason I say this is if pitches are similar speeds all the time, even with movement, the hitter is still just looking at location and timing is not an issue.  However, a good changeup that looks like a fastball arm action, will lead to keeping hitter off balance timing wise.  

I know Twins like the slider fastball combo the best, because of the same arm slot and helps with not tracking as much.  However, I believe if the speed is similar, if the slider gets hung, it will get crushed so much more often, than a good change up left up.  If the change up is up, but the hitter is out in front thinking it is a fastball, they will not crush it as often.  Of course this is always based on how good the change up is. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Not taking anything away from Pete Maki but would it make sense for the Twins to reach out to Santana, Radke or even Viola to come to ST to see if they can enhance Lopez's changeup in anyway or to solicit some additional advice for how they used the pitch effectively?  The Twins do this with other non-pitching alumni but I've not seen it with pitchers other than using Blyleven one year I believe.

[jmlease1]

I love a great change-up. So fun to watch. And we've been lucky to see some terrific ones here in Minnesota: Frankie V, Radke, and especially Johan. So I kinda love the fact that Lopez's best out pitch is the change. (It's one of the reasons I can abide Jovani Moran's wildness, because that knee-buckling change is so fun)

I'm looking forward to seeing Lopez pitch. If the issue for his second-half slippage is a matter of getting his release point back to a certain spot...that might be easily correctable in spring training, especially if a now-healed ding was helping cause it.

[Twins33]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:47 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Not taking anything away from Pete Maki but would it make sense for the Twins to reach out to Santana, Radke or even Viola to come to ST to see if they can enhance Lopez's changeup in anyway or to solicit some additional advice for how they used the pitch effectively?  The Twins do this with other non-pitching alumni but I've not seen it with pitchers other than using Blyleven one year I believe.

Blyleven, Hawkins and Santana are usually at spring training, working with pitchers.