The Arraez-Lopez Trade Hints at the Injury Status of Key Players

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

is it, though? they're giving him first shot at 1B, but it's not like the Twins don't have other options to slide in there. Miranda, Kepler, Gallo are all options to play 1B if Kirilloff struggles at the plate or can't stay on the field. I think the pressure on him is more about "we love you mah dude, but if that wrist means you're just a slap-hitting 1B who misses a lot of time every season, then you don't have much of a future." The injury is it's own kind of weight: he's missed significant time on it each of the last 2 seasons and in the minors. If you have an injury that takes you off the field 3 seasons in a row, it's hard to say it's not a chronic issue that will impact your whole career, sadly.

because I'm a big fan of Kirilloff. I think if he gets healthy he will be a force at the plate (.280/.330/.475 slash line) ripping line drives and playing an excellent 1B.

Yeah... I get that... I'm very pro lots of options in case of injury or struggles. I am very anti Eggs in one Basket in case of injury or struggles.   

I explained it in a post earlier. It's the expectation that a healthy Kirilloff is going to replace what we lost with Arraez is the weight. 

 

Take a load off Arraez... Take a load for free... Take a load off Arraez... And... And... And... You put the load... put the load right on Kirilloff. 

Robbie Robertson and Levon Helm are better at this sort of thing than I am. 😀 

[weitz41]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 

As an aside, I have the under on a combined 375 innings from Mahle, Maeda and Gray this season. If you believe that, acquiring a guy who thru 180 innings last year makes a lot of sense. Btw, I also have the under on 180 innings from Lopez in ‘23 or ‘24. I know, I know, I’m such a Debbie Downer.

I'll take the over on the Mahle, Maeda and Gray (2021 innings pitched 180,106 and 135) But agree on the under (180) on Lopez.

My guess is that if they're spending $50+ mil on two players for the next 6 years 3rd place finishes are no acceptable if they want to be here at the end of those contracts. Throw in a slew of young position players ready to contribute and few pitchers who could = Lopez and something has to give. Could it be injury insurance? Sure. I think Correa + Buxton and the pitching pipeline has more to do with it.

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. 

I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be. 

I would hope that the Twins don’t put the expectation of All-Star performance on what (I hope) is his first full season. Making up for Arraez’ contribution should come from improvements from Buxton, Polanco, Gallo, Kepler who are coming off disappointing seasons mostly due to injury. 

[HokieRif]

I'm legitimately mad at the front office for this.  They've overloaded the outfield, now the starting rotation is overloaded, and we just lost an MVP-caliber player.  WTAF.... Great, we got Correa... who in the hell is he going to turn 2 with all season long?  Who the hell is he going to score from 2B?  This offense was already anemic and it just got a lot worse.

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

I'm legitimately mad at the front office for this.  They've overloaded the outfield, now the starting rotation is overloaded, and we just lost an MVP-caliber player.  WTAF.... Great, we got Correa... who in the hell is he going to turn 2 with all season long?  Who the hell is he going to score from 2B?  This offense was already anemic and it just got a lot worse.

Arraez isn't close to MVP. Also, they aren't overloaded....they literally used 9 OFers last year. I'm guessing he's going to turn 2 with Polanco, who is a better overall player than Arraez (O, D, running all taken into account). As for the SP, they are also not overloaded. I'd be shocked if we don't see Varland, Ober, and SWR all start games this year.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I would hope that the Twins don’t put the expectation of All-Star performance on what (I hope) is his first full season. Making up for Arraez’ contribution should come from improvements from Buxton, Polanco, Gallo, Kepler who are coming off disappointing seasons mostly due to injury. 

Me To

The expectations that I'm picking up on is coming from posters and bloggers. 

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Arraez isn't close to MVP. Also, they aren't overloaded....they literally used 9 OFers last year. I'm guessing he's going to turn 2 with Polanco, who is a better overall player than Arraez (O, D, running all taken into account). As for the SP, they are also not overloaded. I'd be shocked if we don't see Varland, Ober, and SWR all start games this year.

Just to emphasize your point Mike, The runner-up AL batting Champ had an OPS that was 250 point higher than Arraez and his wRC+ was 76 points higher and he is a plus defender.  His WAR was over 3X that of Arraez.  I would also add that adding Lopez is a gain over Ober and Ober will be a gain over whoever he replaces in the BP if they utilize him in that capacity.

[IndianaTwin]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

I am very interested to see how this staff is managed. If Rocco sticks to the 5 and fly again your estimates on IP is probably very close. In addition, if the Twins want to resign any of these guys good luck.

I don't think it will be 5 and fly. Here's why:

Here are some past averages from Rocco's managerial days that are above last year's MLB average of 5.2 innings per start:

• Joe Ryan, 2022, 5.44
• Jose Berrios, 2021, 6.08
• Kenta Maeda, 2020, 6.06
• Jose Berrios, 2020, 5.25
• Michael Pineda, 2020 5.33 (only 5 starts)
• Jose Berrios, 2019, 6.26
• Martin Perez, 2019, 5.41
• Jake Odorizzi, 2019, 5.30
• Michael Pineda, 2019, 5.62

Do you know what these guys have in common? Two things:

1. With the exception of Ryan last year, they were experienced pitchers.
2. They didn't suck. In fact, they were usually pretty good, sometimes even excellent.

Point being, when Rocco has had the horses, he's let them ride. The notion of "Rocco pulls the starter early" is recency bias, driven by a season when A) they were beset by injuries, so they were going to rookies way more than they wanted to; B) Archer never extended; C) if they were pitching veterans, they were protecting them out of necessity, knowing that another injury meant another Cole Sands start; and D) they often sucked. Sure, there were individual games when they didn't suck, and TD readers wanted Rocco to leave the guy in longer, but Rocco seemed to take the long view that C is more important than D. I generally agree.  

So this year, they are going into the season with Perez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda. That group checks Box No. 1, though Maeda is coming off TJS and Mahle missed the season's end. And all of them have the potential to be anywhere from pretty good to excellent, which checks Box No. 2. And there's the herd of young guys coming from behind -- Ober, Winder, et. al. -- who we seem to think fit Box No. 2, if not yet Box No. 1.  

(Apologies if I took the thread off-topic. If need be, I can cut and paste the comment to any number of other threads where it also fits!)

 

 

[Karbo]

13 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don't think it will be 5 and fly. Here's why:

Here are some past averages from Rocco's managerial days that are above last year's MLB average of 5.2 innings per start:

• Joe Ryan, 2022, 5.44
• Jose Berrios, 2021, 6.08
• Kenta Maeda, 2020, 6.06
• Jose Berrios, 2020, 5.25
• Michael Pineda, 2020 5.33 (only 5 starts)
• Jose Berrios, 2019, 6.26
• Martin Perez, 2019, 5.41
• Jake Odorizzi, 2019, 5.30
• Michael Pineda, 2019, 5.62

Do you know what these guys have in common? Two things:

1. With the exception of Ryan last year, they were experienced pitchers.
2. They didn't suck. In fact, they were usually pretty good, sometimes even excellent.

Point being, when Rocco has had the horses, he's let them ride. The notion of "Rocco pulls the starter early" is recency bias, driven by a season when A) they were beset by injuries, so they were going to rookies way more than they wanted to; B) Archer never extended; C) if they were pitching veterans, they were protecting them out of necessity, knowing that another injury meant another Cole Sands start; and D) they often sucked. Sure, there were individual games when they didn't suck, and TD readers wanted Rocco to leave the guy in longer, but Rocco seemed to take the long view that C is more important than D. I generally agree.  

So this year, they are going into the season with Perez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda. That group checks Box No. 1, though Maeda is coming off TJS and Mahle missed the season's end. And all of them have the potential to be anywhere from pretty good to excellent, which checks Box No. 2. And there's the herd of young guys coming from behind -- Ober, Winder, et. al. -- who we seem to think fit Box No. 2, if not yet Box No. 1.  

(Apologies if I took the thread off-topic. If need be, I can cut and paste the comment to any number of other threads where it also fits!)

 

 

OK, but notice that only Berrios and Maeda got up to 6 IP. I hope you're right, but I have little faith in Rocco.

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Me To

The expectations that I'm picking up on is coming from posters and bloggers. 

Posters and bloggers aren't the Twins org, thankfully. We're all just arm chair GMing here. But yes, I hope that all expectations aren't on Kirilloff's shoulders, it should be on everyone's shoulders.

[wabene]

Berrios pitched more innings per start under Rocco than he did during the same season under the Jay's manager. The Jays were fighting for a playoff spot and didn't ride Jose as hard as Rocco did early in a season. This narrative surrounding Rocco is not only incredibly stale it is incorrect. From what I've seen if Rocco has the horses, he will ride them. Archer and Bundy? C'mon now.

There is another narrative that Sonny Gray wants out. This is based on what? Gray was mad when pulled from a game, as any competitive pitcher should be, and said he wanted to go deeper in games. What happened? The next game Rocco left him in and he got shelled. Gray said, "I need to be better". Somehow that translates into Gray wants out. Personally I don't get it. 

Maybe the PR department needs to "catch" Rocco on camera swilling a Bud Lite in the dugout lol. 

[twinfan]

I have no confidence in the Twins front office. Trading a hitter of Arraez caliber for a pitcher is a mistake. There was no reason why Luis couldn't be a DH if his fielding is "that" bad. So now we have a DH who hits below the Mendoza line and strikes out half the time. I would have felt better about the deal if the Twins would have gotten a reliever included in the deal. Our bullpen is our weakness right now (though the offense did take a hit) and now there is talk of trading Kepler- who will be helped with no shift anymore- and for what? We can have 10 starters but they won't pitch more than 6 innings. So, with a weakened offense scoring fewer runs, the added burden falls on the bullpen. Yikes! I am growing more concerned about the Twins ability to win more than half their games in 2023. But I'll wait for now before making any predictions.

[jmlease1]

45 minutes ago, wabene said:

Berrios pitched more innings per start under Rocco than he did during the same season under the Jay's manager. The Jays were fighting for a playoff spot and didn't ride Jose as hard as Rocco did early in a season. This narrative surrounding Rocco is not only incredibly stale it is incorrect. From what I've seen if Rocco has the horses, he will ride them. Archer and Bundy? C'mon now.

There is another narrative that Sonny Gray wants out. This is based on what? Gray was mad when pulled from a game, as any competitive pitcher should be, and said he wanted to go deeper in games. What happened? The next game Rocco left him in and he got shelled. Gray said, "I need to be better". Somehow that translates into Gray wants out. Personally I don't get it. 

Maybe the PR department needs to "catch" Rocco on camera swilling a Bud Lite in the dugout lol. 

These ideas are mostly driven by people who don't like the state of baseball and don't like the manager and the front office. Sonny Gray complains once about not going deeper in games and suddenly no pitcher will ever sign an extension here because all starters only want to come to a place where they are ridden like Dusty Baker did with the Cubs 20 years ago.

You're right: they will let pitchers who can go deeper, go deeper.

And the players like Rocco and like playing for him. I'm guessing a lot of them like winning more, so they're not going to fall on their swords for him if the team ain't winning, but there's literally zero signs Rocco has lost the clubhouse.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Posters and bloggers aren't the Twins org, thankfully. We're all just arm chair GMing here. But yes, I hope that all expectations aren't on Kirilloff's shoulders, it should be on everyone's shoulders.

Yes. To me, that’s one of the biggest strengths of this roster — its flexibility. Other than catcher, there’s not a single position where there aren’t at least three viable options for solid, if not outstanding, play. Not necessarily three long-term options, but options that can work in covering a 10-day IL stint, etc. And even at catcher, they have a stable of guys in St. Paul with MLB experience.