The Arraez-Lopez Trade Hints at the Injury Status of Key Players

[Peter Labuza]

With the trade of Luis Arraez to the Marlins, the Twins are taking a risk by swapping a critical bat in their line up in the hope of pitching depth. But as many analysts here have shown, the trade leaves quite a few questions. So is it possible the Twins know something about the health of their players that we currently do not?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins neither had to drop one of the best bats in the American League nor acquire more pitching depth to technically have a successful off season. In fact, the hitters are now almost obviously in a worse place without Arraez leading off every day. But this is also a team prone to injuries—so much it led to a new trainer coming in this off season—and it is likely the Twins made this trade on knowledge of what team might be playing in 2023.

Let’s start on the pitching side. Depending on who you talk to, the Twins either had eight starting pitchers heading into the off season or two. Although no longer requiring the services of the Dylan Bundys and Chris Archers of the world, the rotation set up for this year has been beaten and bruised in recent years: Tyler Mahle’s shoulder, Bailey Ober’s groin, Tommy John for Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack (the Twins at least seem some potential upside with Paddack, signing him to an extremely team friendly extension). Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan made it through the season quite well, but neither grabbed enough innings to even qualify for awards at the end of the season. The prospects show a lot of upside, but none are an ace. With Correa and Buxton both hitting their peak seasons, the Twins aren’t necessarily interested in a bet when the American League Central remains easily taken.

Lopez thus seems like an easy, but not necessarily ideal, addition to the team. He’s certainly a great, and possibly All Star caliber pitcher, but is clearly a step below what many Twins fans hoped for at the beginning of the season. Additionally, he has similar injury questions over the last couple years. 

However, one way the trade makes more sense is if you assume that those possible injuries are not just hypotheticals but still real. Maeda and Ober last year seemed to be mysteries waiting in the wing for returns with deadlines kicked down the can. Falvey and co. have painted an optimistic picture but have seemingly remained tight lipped on what to expect, particularly on Mahle. If the Twins know if any of these pitchers are actually in the same trouble as before, the Lopez trade becomes not so much as padding as a necessity. The Twins themselves have hinted at returning Ober to Triple A, perhaps in part due to maybe looming injury concerns. 

On the upside of things, this also means the Twins have likely been able to see enough upside finally on Alex Kirilloff. Anytime the word “experimental” is used to describe a surgery can cause worry, but the Twins likely knew enough that they could trade their All Star first baseman as Kirilloff was ready to fill the void. According to Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic, “Whereas last offseason Kirilloff had to shut down his hitting for a month, this year there have been no such shutdowns.” The various projection models seem at least positive on him, hitting around .260 and a positive WRC+, which would nowhere near put him in the All Star level but also help clear the way for the next round of prospects as Jose Miranda eventually makes a mid season move there. The question for Kirilloff is not necessarily that he be fantastic as much as healthy on the field. The Twins, it seems, have seen enough to pull the trigger on what would otherwise be a somewhat alarming trade, especially after Arraez won a Gold Glove for his work at the position.

Nobody truly loves this trade, but the problem seems to in part by seeing the Twins at full strength rather than what might actually be the case. Sometimes front offices do have to make bets, but they know quite a bit more about the status of the players coming into camp next month. If the Twins see two pitchers go down by the end of April, having Lopez will be an absolute welcome. And if Kirilloff plays well enough, Arraez’s production will still be aesthetically missed, but not necessarily lost. If anything, knowing they should make this trade only confirms the worries that the team that won't be obvious to us until players report to Fort Meyers.

 

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[farmerguychris]

I am very intrigued to learn of the health of all our injured guys (not just pitchers) from last year.  In addition to Mahle and Maeda - how are Buxton and Lewis progressing.  Wish the team would share updates on their injury recoveries other than - "progressing along".  Hope to get updates once spring training starts.

[terrydactyls]

5 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I am very intrigued to learn of the health of all our injured guys (not just pitchers) from last year.  In addition to Mahle and Maeda - how are Buxton and Lewis progressing.  Wish the team would share updates on their injury recoveries other than - "progressing along".  Hope to get updates once spring training starts.

Does anyone know (and I mean factual, not "I read somewhere") if revealing health information on recuperating players violates HIPPA rules?

[Cory Engelhardt]

"Nobody truly loves this trade,"

Speak for yourself here. I love the trade that brought in Lopez.

[twinstalker]

You'd think, though, they'd want to add a pitcher who wasn't injured.

[mnfireman]

especially after Arraez won a Gold Glove for his work at the position. 

Arraez did not win the GG, or any other awards, for his work at 1B. Vlad Guerrero Jr. won the GG at 1B and Nathaniel Lowe won the SS. Arraez got his SS for the created this season Utility Player position.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

12 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

"Nobody truly loves this trade,"

Speak for yourself here. I love the trade that brought in Lopez.

I read where there is also some discontent with Marlins fans regarding this trade.  To me that means it must be a fair trade for both teams.

[IndianaTwin]

Opening paragraph: "With the trade of Luis Arraez to the Marlins, the Twins are taking a risk by swapping a critical bat in their line up in the hope of pitching depth. But as many analysts here have shown, the trade leaves quite a few questions. So is it possible the Twins know something about the health of their players that we currently do not?"

 

Uh, yeah. Of course they know more about player health than we do.

[SF Twins Fan]

Such an odd article that is pure speculation.... Obviously, they know more about their players health than the general public but that doesn't mean there are any serious health issues.  They traded Arraez to Miami because he doesn't have a defensive position, he has bad knees / legs, he was at peak value, and they have several options of prospects coming up through the minors who appear to be better overall players.  Kiriloff if he can stay health is a much more prototypical 1st baseman.  Taller, more athletic, heft handed and hits for more power.  Add in Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis and the infield is becoming crowded.  

[I wish the twins were good]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Does anyone know (and I mean factual, not "I read somewhere") if revealing health information on recuperating players violates HIPPA rules?

HIPPA applies to medical professionals and other related entities. Employers - including sports teams - aren't covered under the law. Athletes consent to share their medicals with their employer/team when they sign their contracts, and the employer/team is free share that information with the media. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Peter Labuza said:

The question for Kirilloff is not necessarily that he be fantastic as much as healthy on the field. The Twins, it seems, have seen enough to pull the trigger on what would otherwise be a somewhat alarming trade, especially after Arraez won a Gold Glove for his work at the position.

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. 

I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be. 

[In My La Z boy]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. 

I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be. 

Gallo has played a LOT of 1st base, and if Royce or Brooks are ready by mid season, look for Miranda to be moved to 1st. I'll miss Arraez bat, but we have several good options at 1st.

[TNTwinsFan]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. 

I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be. 

I thought I read that the procedure he had was relatively experimental or at least not much of a track record for athletes. Can anyone confirm this? Also, as others have pointed out (and especially under the supervision and counsel of the new Trainer who is said to be among the best) the Twins staff have more data on their players than anyone else. My first thought after the Arraez trade was: oh, they must believe Kirilloff's wrist will be ready to go, or, Farmer is at 3B and Miranda mans 1B. I dont hate either option.

[Blyleven2011]

We are taking a big risk on the arreaz trade ...

Who will be our sparkplug  at the top of the order , the twins offense only had 5 players that hit Over a acceptable 270 average and now 2 of those hitters are gone  ...

If there is no offense and run producers   , all the pitchers have to pitch like an ace ...

Let's hope the offense can improve at clutch hitting and string together some walks ,  hits , singles , doubles , not just solo homeruns ....

[Nashvilletwin]

Yes - a very possible hypothesis. IMHO, the dogged effort to acquire Lopez, who apparently was the best starter available across the league for the best proven major leaguer position player on the Twins we could trade (Correa and Buxton were not possibilities), was a function of a) injury/production concerns re Mahle, Maeda, and possibly Ober and b) the growing likelihood that none of Mahle, Maeda or Gray would be resigned (for whatever reasons), thereby leaving the rotation needing to be restocked in ‘24.

As an aside, I have the under on a combined 375 innings from Mahle, Maeda and Gray this season. If you believe that, acquiring a guy who thru 180 innings last year makes a lot of sense. Btw, I also have the under on 180 innings from Lopez in ‘23 or ‘24. I know, I know, I’m such a Debbie Downer.

The Kiriloff side of this hypothesis is way less relevant. Kiriloff, does not just have experimental surgery risk - he also has a lot of “is he actually any good” risk too.  So, for him to be a even remotely a good replacement for Arraez, he has to be both healthy and consistently productive (which he has really never been). If not, the type of production expected by Kiriloff at 1B can be on the margin more easily replaced by several players (after all, as we learned from Money Ball, anyone can play 1B, lol).

[In My La Z boy]

10 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We are taking a big risk on the arreaz trade ...

Who will be our sparkplug  at the top of the order , the twins offense only had 5 players that hit Over a acceptable 270 average and now 2 of those hitters are gone  ...

If there is no offense and run producers   , all the pitchers have to pitch like an ace ...

Let's hope the offense can improve at clutch hitting and string together some walks ,  hits , singles , doubles , not just solo homeruns ....

I imagine we start the year with Buxton batting leadoff. 

[mnfireman]

37 minutes ago, I wish the twins were good said:

HIPPA applies to medical professionals and other related entities. Employers - including sports teams - aren't covered under the law. Athletes consent to share their medicals with their employer/team when they sign their contracts, and the employer/team is free share that information with the media. 

MLB could just do what the NHL does - (insert player name) is out with a lower-body injury.

[mnfireman]

24 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Gallo has played a LOT of 1st base, and if Royce or Brooks are ready by mid season, look for Miranda to be moved to 1st. I'll miss Arraez bat, but we have several good options at 1st.

Gallo has played 96 games at 1B, 85 of which are starts. But he has only played 1 inning at 1B since 2018. 

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

Gallo has played 96 games at 1B, 85 of which are starts. But he has only played 1 inning at 1B since 2018. 

We'll see about Kirilloff's health. He is obviously our 1st option. I wonder about Miranda's defense, and still think he is the 1st baseman of the future when lee or lewis come up. If we are not trading Kep, it would make sense to look at Gallo at 1st. I was hoping Gordon would get a shot at left.

[mnfireman]

5 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I was hoping Gordon would get a shot at left.

I believe Gordon will get plenty of playing time in 2023, but I don't think he is an everyday player at any position. He played almost everyday in Sep & Oct last year and his numbers, when compared to his overall numbers, were way down. For the season he finished with a slash line of .272/.316/.427, but his Sep/Oct slash line was .252/.298/.396. There are many reasons for numbers falling off, and over-exposure is one of them. He will be better suited to 2 or 3 starts a week and some late inning PH/defensive replacement appearances, about 100 games overall.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

Gallo has played a LOT of 1st base, and if Royce or Brooks are ready by mid season, look for Miranda to be moved to 1st. I'll miss Arraez bat, but we have several good options at 1st.

I'm not that concerned about who puts on the big glove. Farmer can play 3B and Miranda can play 1B on day one if needed. Gordon can play some 3B to if needed.  

It's the thought that the offense lost in the Arreaz trade can be easily mitigated by a healthy Kirilloff.

That's the incredible weight being placed upon young Alex's shoulders. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, TNTwinsFan said:

I thought I read that the procedure he had was relatively experimental or at least not much of a track record for athletes. Can anyone confirm this? Also, as others have pointed out (and especially under the supervision and counsel of the new Trainer who is said to be among the best) the Twins staff have more data on their players than anyone else. My first thought after the Arraez trade was: oh, they must believe Kirilloff's wrist will be ready to go, or, Farmer is at 3B and Miranda mans 1B. I dont hate either option.

I was sleeping in med school so I can only hope that the procedure went well and that the decision makers are getting accurate reports. 😀 

Who knows... We also are hearing reports that they are toe-dipping into Gurriel discussions... who knows how much toe they are dipping and what that means in regards to their confidence level of each individual player on the existing roster.   

Right now... I'm just reacting to articles and individual posts that seem to suggest that Kirilloff is going knock the ball around the park with the greatest of ease if healthy.

I'd be happier with:

A. Arraez and Kirilloff together in 2023

or

B. Replacement for Arraez with Kirilloff in 2023

I'm nervous about 

C. Kirilloff making up for what we lost with Arraez.  

C is a lot of weight is being placed on his shoulders. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

"Nobody truly loves this trade,"

Speak for yourself here. I love the trade that brought in Lopez.

Same.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. 

I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be. 

is it, though? they're giving him first shot at 1B, but it's not like the Twins don't have other options to slide in there. Miranda, Kepler, Gallo are all options to play 1B if Kirilloff struggles at the plate or can't stay on the field. I think the pressure on him is more about "we love you mah dude, but if that wrist means you're just a slap-hitting 1B who misses a lot of time every season, then you don't have much of a future." The injury is it's own kind of weight: he's missed significant time on it each of the last 2 seasons and in the minors. If you have an injury that takes you off the field 3 seasons in a row, it's hard to say it's not a chronic issue that will impact your whole career, sadly.

because I'm a big fan of Kirilloff. I think if he gets healthy he will be a force at the plate (.280/.330/.475 slash line) ripping line drives and playing an excellent 1B.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know if we can draw any conclusions from this off-season other than the FO wants MUCH better depth at SP and OF. They never want a number five or AAAA starting pitcher pitching this year. They don't want to use their sixth thru eighth OF at the same time. Everything else is a guess. 

[rv78]

"In fact, the hitters are now almost obviously in a worse place without Arraez leading off every day."

Arraez only led off about half of the games last year. Buxton was the other main choice of Rocco with a few by Polanco, Garlick and once or twice by some others. With Rocco setting the lineup according to analytics one would think the player with the best OBP on the team would be slotted leadoff every day but Rocco looks at numbers differently than the common sense fan. Most of the time when Arraez DIDN'T bat leadoff was when the other team was starting a lefty pitcher. I'm pretty sure Rocco looks at righty vs lefty and lefty vs righty matchups FIRST over any other stat regardless of how good their BA and OBP is especially towards the top of the lineup.

 

[jmlease1]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't know if we can draw any conclusions from this off-season other than the FO wants MUCH better depth at SP and OF. They never want a number five or AAAA starting pitcher pitching this year. They don't want to use their sixth thru eighth OF at the same time. Everything else is a guess. 

i think you're right. And the really don't want to see 8-10th choice starting in the OF...

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

I believe Gordon will get plenty of playing time in 2023, but I don't think he is an everyday player at any position. He played almost everyday in Sep & Oct last year and his numbers, when compared to his overall numbers, were way down. For the season he finished with a slash line of .272/.316/.427, but his Sep/Oct slash line was .252/.298/.396. There are many reasons for numbers falling off, and over-exposure is one of them. He will be better suited to 2 or 3 starts a week and some late inning PH/defensive replacement appearances, about 100 games overall.

Gordon surprisingly led our LH OF in slugging percentage last year,  He could be a starter if Kepler isn't and Larnarch isn't or Wallner isn't...

[Squirrel]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't know if we can draw any conclusions from this off-season other than the FO wants MUCH better depth at SP and OF. They never want a number five or AAAA starting pitcher pitching this year. They don't want to use their sixth thru eighth OF at the same time. Everything else is a guess. 

Yeah, I wish the title of this piece had a question mark in it, because this is all speculation.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes - a very possible hypothesis. IMHO, the dogged effort to acquire Lopez, who apparently was the best starter available across the league for the best proven major leaguer position player on the Twins we could trade (Correa and Buxton were not possibilities), was a function of a) injury/production concerns re Mahle, Maeda, and possibly Ober and b) the growing likelihood that none of Mahle, Maeda or Gray would be resigned (for whatever reasons), thereby leaving the rotation needing to be restocked in ‘24.

As an aside, I have the under on a combined 375 innings from Mahle, Maeda and Gray this season. If you believe that, acquiring a guy who thru 180 innings last year makes a lot of sense. Btw, I also have the under on 180 innings from Lopez in ‘23 or ‘24. I know, I know, I’m such a Debbie Downer.

The Kiriloff side of this hypothesis is way less relevant. Kiriloff, does not just have experimental surgery risk - he also has a lot of “is he actually any good” risk too.  So, for him to be a even remotely a good replacement for Arraez, he has to be both healthy and consistently productive (which he has really never been). If not, the type of production expected by Kiriloff at 1B can be on the margin more easily replaced by several players (after all, as we learned from Money Ball, anyone can play 1B, lol).

I am very interested to see how this staff is managed. If Rocco sticks to the 5 and fly again your estimates on IP is prbably very close. In addition, if the Twins want to resign any of these guys good luck.