Could the Twins Still Swing a Deal for an Ace?

[Shaitan]

If I've learned anything from this site, one person's "ace" is another's "low #3."

I think this argument strongly depends on your definition of ace.

I'd only make a move if a top tier, generational pitcher like prime Viola or Santana were somehow available. And even then, with stipulations. After all, the Mets requested a salary extension/negotation instead of just rental in Santana's case.

(They're not.)

[sun]

Sometimes I'd rather see 2 of our "lower level" starters platooned to pitch one game giving them 3 - 4 innings each then to trade for a questionable ace. If we need to trade 2 of our lower level starters plus prospects for an established starter then that's possible too. Only the front office would know about the player's medicals that are part of the details that make or break a trade deal. At some point the Twins will need to make some choices about who they want to keep and acquire by the trade deadline.

That could mean a 6 man rotation with less need for more pitchers in the bullpen. That would help to cover misfires by starting pitchers when they can't even get through 3-4 innings without the game getting out of hand.  

When a long reliever can prove themselves effective they increase their own value as trade capital to be used at the trade deadline too. Our low level starters don't need to be aces, they just need to be effective for 3-4 innings to take some pressure off the bullpen. Jax does a good job in some respect but can't pitch long enough to be considered a long reliever.

The Twins need to invent a new method that works for them and which matches their personnel. That's Rocco's job! He needs to figure out how to best use his players & roster..

 

 

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, bird said:

I get that, Mike, but that potential doesn't fade away as often as you might think when it comes to prospects as highly-rated as Martin and SWR. Some examples from 2022 of prospects in the system with reasonably comparable FV's to SWR and Martin:

Louie Varland, Jovani Moran, Cole Sands, Matt Wallner, Ronny Henriquez, Jhoan Duran, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Jose Miranda, and Royce Lewis. Ten players who played for the big club last year. Add SWR to the list. Oh, and Spencer Steer with Cincy.

If you look at the Fangraphs 2022 list, you'll see that 7 out of the first 10 prospects on that list made a MLB appearance, including SWR. Now, not all of them are going to be Miranda, Ryan, and Duran style successes of course. The 3 who didn't make it were Martin, who blew up the Arizona Fall League, Canterino (injured), and Balazovic, who could be a guy with potential who fades away.

Of course, a few of these prospects won't amount to much. But I think this is evidence that the chances are very very good that Toronto overpayed for a declining Berrios, who will get paid roughly $20M each year through 2028.

 

I cannot argue that Toronto is not overpaying Berrios.  Nor can I argue that we have overpaid for many arms - pitchers tend to drive the teams crazy.

[HrbieFan]

If they want to go all in, they need better RPs and bats without holes. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, Shaitan said:

If I've learned anything from this site, one person's "ace" is another's "low #3."...

I'd nominate this for TD "Truth Statement of the Week," but it's only Thursday, so there's a small chance someone outdoes this in the next few days.

[Riverbrian]

The Brewers didn't trade for an ace. The Brewers developed not one but two aces. 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick. He was the 21st ranked prospect in the Brewers system in 2017. He was the 69th ranked prospect in baseball one slot behind Fernando Romero in 2018. He was a complete nightmare in 2019 with an 8 plus ERA in the majors and an 8 plus ERA at AAA. Nobody was thinking ACE when 2020 rolled around.  

In 2020 he found the ACE light switch.

No Trades were necessary. 

[D.C Twins]

"Derek Falvey pulled off another master-class trade"

I nominate this as an early candidate for "Most hyperbolic statement within a main TD article-2023"

I know there is a lot of time left, but I still like this comment's chances.

.... And I am a firm believer in the Arraez trade mind you! 

[D.C Twins]

More seriously, if the Twins are serious about this strategy, they definitely need to go after Gallen, because Arizona has a wonderful track record of being fleeced in trades!

[BsuNemo]

12 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I can not agree that the FO gets the other team to overpay ...

See Lopez , mahle or even Dyson  as recent deadline trades , I think we over paid at the deadline trades ...

Maybe I would have agreed that the FO  has gotten the other team to over pay during the offseason trades but not the deadline trades , the deadline trades have not worked out in our favor...

I totally agree! CES and Steer are going to be legit MLB players and very possibly all star caliber players for years to come. I was really looking forward to encarnacion-strand in a twins uni. We absolutely did not get the reds to overpay there. 

[dxpavelka]

How about we trade for an elite relief pitcher and move Jhoan Duran, the ace right under our noses, to the rotation.......

[Mark G]

20 hours ago, CRF said:

Sorry...you lost me at "master class trade".

Me as well.  

[Mark G]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

"Derek Falvey pulled off another master-class trade"

I nominate this as an early candidate for "Most hyperbolic statement within a main TD article-2023"

I know there is a lot of time left, but I still like this comment's chances.

.... And I am a firm believer in the Arraez trade mind you! 

"Derek Falvey pulled off another master-class trade"

I nominate this as an early candidate for "Most hyperbolic statement within a main TD article-2023"

I know there is a lot of time left, but I still like this comment's chances.

Couldn't agree more!!

As for line 4.........get back to me sometime in '24, because we have no way of knowing if it will work in our favor for a while yet.  

[Hunter McCall]

12 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

"Derek Falvey pulled off another master-class trade"

I nominate this as an early candidate for "Most hyperbolic statement within a main TD article-2023"

I know there is a lot of time left, but I still like this comment's chances.

.... And I am a firm believer in the Arraez trade mind you! 

Every single trade value metric says the Marlins overpaid by an outrageously high margin. When you are the recipient of the more valuable side in a trade this lopsided, I consider it master-class. Also, if you have read any of my blogs over the course of the last couple months, I have been advocating for trading Arraez for Lopez for quite some time. The original thought was that the Twins would have to give up Arraez plus a prospect for Lopez, so the fact that Falvey managed to get Lopez plus two prospects for Arraez alone is a phenomenal effort by what I consider a very good general manager. Falvey stuck to his guns and got the Marlins to overpay. This is fact.

[Hubie29]

People keep talking about pitching, pitching, pitching!  Has anyone looked at the lineup we are going to have to put out there on a daily basis?? Kiriloff, Larnach, Vazquez, Gallo, Kepler etc, etc, etc?? We better start finding someone who can hit their weight, or the pitching won't matter!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Every single trade value metric says the Marlins overpaid by an outrageously high margin. When you are the recipient of the more valuable side in a trade this lopsided, I consider it master-class. Also, if you have read any of my blogs over the course of the last couple months, I have been advocating for trading Arraez for Lopez for quite some time. The original thought was that the Twins would have to give up Arraez plus a prospect for Lopez, so the fact that Falvey managed to get Lopez plus two prospects for Arraez alone is a phenomenal effort by what I consider a very good general manager. Falvey stuck to his guns and got the Marlins to overpay. This is fact.

While I agree with your opinion that Falvine received great value for Arraez, value is relative. Value is opinion. Opinion is not fact.

if the Marlins GM feels Arraez was worth it, the Marlins got value too.

after all, it takes two to tango.

[farmerguychris]

Lets wait until the trade deadline to see where we're at.  As it stands - we have 6 #2 and #3 level starters.  I think that bodes well going against other team's #4 and #5 starters - on average.

Should get us to the playoffs, if we're hot and in contention at the deadline, then consider getting a #1 you feel good about for the playoffs - otherwise keep our prospects for now.

[Hunter McCall]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

While I agree with your opinion that Falvine received great value for Arraez, value is relative. Value is opinion. Opinion is not fact.

if the Marlins GM feels Arraez was worth it, the Marlins got value too.

after all, it takes two to tango.

Value is a relative measure, you are correct about that. Every team uses a different metric for deciding player's worth. I would also imagine though if you were to poll the 30 MLB teams on which side received more value, 29 of them (and maybe even the Marlins) would agree that the Twins received more value. This was a necessary trade for the Marlins because they had arms to give, prospects ready to play, and a need for a hitter in the lineup. For these same reasons, it was necessary for the Twins. That doesn't change the fact that the Twins made their major league team better while also bolstering their farm system, which is a feat very rarely accomplished in the league. This is why it was a good trade. All of this of course is rather beside the point. The point of the whole article was to talk about the possibility of trading from the wealth of middle infield prospects the Twins have acquired to land an ace at the deadline. I simply used the Arraez trade as the latest example of Falvey seemingly getting teams to overpay.

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The Brewers didn't trade for an ace. The Brewers developed not one but two aces. 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick. He was the 21st ranked prospect in the Brewers system in 2017. He was the 69th ranked prospect in baseball one slot behind Fernando Romero in 2018. He was a complete nightmare in 2019 with an 8 plus ERA in the majors and an 8 plus ERA at AAA. Nobody was thinking ACE when 2020 rolled around.  

In 2020 he found the ACE light switch.

No Trades were necessary. 

Hopefully the twins have that kind of patience, rather than the lack thereof posters here have! You are right. Viola wasn't good his first year. Not sure berrios was.....

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

More seriously, if the Twins are serious about this strategy, they definitely need to go after Gallen, because Arizona has a wonderful track record of being fleeced in trades!

Not the trade to get Gallen.....I was very disappointed the twins didn't do that one. 

[Hunter McCall]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

People keep talking about pitching, pitching, pitching!  Has anyone looked at the lineup we are going to have to put out there on a daily basis?? Kiriloff, Larnach, Vazquez, Gallo, Kepler etc, etc, etc?? We better start finding someone who can hit their weight, or the pitching won't matter!

I love the lineup! A lot of proven talent mixed with potential! You have your superstars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, and a deep, flexible roster that can compliment them very well. Every player you mentioned has hit at the MLB level. Kirilloff and Larnach have injury concerns, but the talent has never been questioned. Christian Vasquez will do everything you can hope for out of a catcher in today's game, play excellent defense and produce a .700+ OPS. In 2021, Joey Gallo was an all-star and gold glove winner. He produced 4.2 WAR that year, and prior to being traded to the Yankees at the deadline, had a .869 OPS. I think there's enough reason to believe that he didn't mesh well in New York, and is due for a bounce back year. Even in a year that people call a disaster, he produced +0.2 WAR, which looks pretty terrific next to a player like Eddie Rosario who produced -1.6 WAR. The last name you mentioned was Max Kepler. Whether you like it or not, Max Kepler helps the Twins win. He should benefit from the shift ban, and plays excellent defense. He won't be asked to hit in the heart of the order anymore, and probably also won't hit against lefties. This will make him a much more pleasant player to watch! All I'm saying is the Twins have put together a very solid baseball team. I really look forward seeing what happens and rooting for them this summer, you should as well!

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The Brewers didn't trade for an ace. The Brewers developed not one but two aces. 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick. He was the 21st ranked prospect in the Brewers system in 2017. He was the 69th ranked prospect in baseball one slot behind Fernando Romero in 2018. He was a complete nightmare in 2019 with an 8 plus ERA in the majors and an 8 plus ERA at AAA. Nobody was thinking ACE when 2020 rolled around.  

In 2020 he found the ACE light switch.

No Trades were necessary. 

Woodruff was an 11th round pick.  The only an established top of the rotation SP acquired via trade by a team in the bottom half of revenue.  I can come up with is Greinke to the Brewers.  Of course, the Royals got two prospects that ended up being crucial pieces to the WS run plus Jake Odorizzi.  I can come up with quite a few that were traded for prospects.  The reason is the extraordinary future capital required to acquire that type of pitcher.