Twins Will Win the Division (An Overly Optimistic Post)

[Fatbat]

So far no one has mentioned the most optimistic guy that with carve out a huge role on the 2023 team and beyond.  Royce Lewis will not only be in the show but he will make this team special. Maeda will get his starts and be a solid#3.  Ober might just mature and stay healthy and we will have a top 5 SP rotation. Get ready for a most exciting season not just in Mpls but also across the river! 

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, bap3141 said:

I agree. The poor fella is used to it. The Dodgers did that to him often. 

What the Dodgers did to him is different than what some people here are suggesting. People here are suggesting putting him in the pen to start the year. I think it'd be much harder for him to get out of the pen and into the rotation to reach his incentives that way.

The Dodgers gave him at least 20 starts in all 4 years of his time there. That's at least an extra $2 million a year (1 million for 15 starts, and 1 for 20 starts). They gave him at least 25 starts in 3 of his 4 years. That's an extra $1.5 million each of those years. They gave him 32 starts his first year. That's an extra $3 million (1.5 for 30 starts, and 1.5 for 32 starts).

They also gave him at least 120 innings all 4 years. That's an extra $1 million per year (250k for 90, 100, 110, and 120 innings). They gave him 130, 150, 170 innings in the other years which added an extra 250k, 750k, and 1.25 million in those years respectively. 

Putting him in the pen straight out of the gates would be way different as he wouldn't hit a single incentive (no reliever in baseball hit 90 innings last year). I'm sure he wasn't super happy with the Dodgers, but I'd think he'd be way more upset with the Twins if they just threw him in the pen like has been suggested.

[EGFTShaw]

19 hours ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I think the Twins will win the central by 5+ games. I'll come back here in October.... 

On another thread I said if Twins injuries regress back to the norm for MLB teams they will run away with the division.  

Guardians are good, but very gettable.

I think the depth and potential with a year of normal health for the players, they will win the division easily.

So, I'll take the over on your 5+. 💪

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, SwainZag said:

The Twins pitching staff on paper is MUCH stronger than it was a year ago and it's not even close.  That's in both the staff and in the pen.  I don't even know how anyone can even think it's a push with how much it should be improved.

…….on paper, yes! I think reason to be optimistic at this point v. our staff last year should be high - agreed!

When you get serious though……Mahle, Ober, & Maeda are all potential real problems with health. Actually, after the arm rebuild Maeda may be the least concern.

Mahle, seems to be no information on him??

Ober has been hurt - often!

Lopez has his issues.

Even Gray is a health concern.

Better than Bundy & Archer - YES, especially after seeing them actually pitch - very tough much of the time.

Crossing fingers on Pen with the retention of Pagan & J. Lopez. Both have talent/stuff, neither are very good pitchers!

[Brad.dahlen]

21 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

On another thread I said if Twins injuries regress back to the norm for MLB teams they will run away with the division.  

Guardians are good, but very gettable.

I think the depth and potential with a year of normal health for the players, they will win the division easily.

So, I'll take the over on your 5+. 💪

Go Twins!

[mac098]

On 1/26/2023 at 11:50 AM, WhenWillWeBeatNY said:

I think potentially we could have one of the deepest rotations in the MLB. The issue is to truly get to, and go far in the playoffs we need two guys to step up and be ace or all-star type pitchers that's where my concern lies. Realistically our whole rotation should have ERA's under 4.00. But if we can get 2 guys under 2.50, another under 3.00, and the last two under 3.50. That should be enough to easily lead the Twins to a division title and a deep run in the playoffs. 

 

On 1/26/2023 at 11:18 AM, SwainZag said:

The Twins pitching staff on paper is MUCH stronger than it was a year ago and it's not even close.  That's in both the staff and in the pen.  I don't even know how anyone can even think it's a push with how much it should be improved.

 

I would say we are much stronger than last year. Is it going to be one of the best in the league, maybe. I would say over the course of a full season, we'll probably one of the most consistent rotations with a strong anchor in the bullpen. 

Now if we can convert some of our SP into LRP to take the reigns in the event of a short outing, I believe we'll have a very good staff. 

Now I agree that we need some pitchers to step up and take the ACE or #2 spot. But that comes down to who has post-season experience and right now, that looks like it isn't too many of our players outside of Gallo and Correa. We've got a very young and inexperienced team (in terms of playoff experience) If we can some of our veteran starters kick it up to another level, we'll have a team that can win a playoff series.

[sun]

It's already been 16 months since Maeda had surgery and he had a newer bracing procedure. We can hope that he won't be weaker than Archer. was last year who was allowed to be a starter with a lower pitch count. Maybe a reason to have a rotation of 6 starters to begin the season like last year.   

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32128689/minnesota-twins-hope-kenta-maeda-return-9-12-months-undergoing-tommy-john-surgery

[Vanimal46]

On 1/26/2023 at 9:21 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I feel bad for those individuals that continue to be pessimistic about the Twins chances in 2023.

- The roster is, AT WORST, a push compared to last year's roster.  By default, improved health will greatly improve this team.
- With all of the injuries last year, they were still in contention until September.
- The roster floor is higher.
- Correa is now an asset, not a rental.
- We have added a quality SP, C, and OF depth/flexibility really only losing Arrea. (Urshela's loss is debatable).
- The AL Central is still pretty weak.  

I tend to agree, but there are some reasons to be cautious about the Twins.

- The new balanced schedule. The Twins will no longer have 47% of their games beating up on AL Central teams.

- The offense could be streaky. When Buxton inevitably goes down with injury, the depth options are guys who don’t hit particularly well. We are relying on bounce back years from Gallo and Kepler. As well as progression from Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Wallner. Which may or may not happen. 

- The bullpen has remained unchanged. Which was a significant problem last season during our contending period. 

Overall I am optimistic, but there is still work left to do before I crown them division champs. 

[Mike Sixel]

I feel very optimistic about the starting pitching and defense. I'm slightly less so about the bullpen, and pretty "meh" on the offense (as I expect Buxton to get hurt again). That said, if Kiriloff is healthy and Buxton plays 110 games, I think this team is the favorite for the division. It largely depends on health (and luck, as with all sports an inch or two can really matter at specific moments).

I love the depth of this team. Even if the injury bug bites them almost as hard as last year, this year they are ready.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

36 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I tend to agree, but there are some reasons to be cautious about the Twins.

- The new balanced schedule. The Twins will no longer have 47% of their games beating up on AL Central teams.

- The offense could be streaky. When Buxton inevitably goes down with injury, the depth options are guys who don’t hit particularly well. We are relying on bounce back years from Gallo and Kepler. As well as progression from Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Wallner. Which may or may not happen. 

- The bullpen has remained unchanged. Which was a significant problem last season during our contending period. 

Overall I am optimistic, but there is still work left to do before I crown them division champs. 

I never said they were world beaters and agree with much of what you say.  All I am saying is there is more reason to be optimistic than pessimistic.

[LastOnePicked]

Optimism is good. Depth is good. Many of the moves this offseason have been good.

But this is still a team led by Rocco Baldelli, while Cleveland still has an elite manager/staff. Coaching and leadership remain the same here. There's an organizational theory that says "Systems are more likely to change people than people are likely to change systems." The Twins culture is injury, failure and wilting under pressure. Until that culture changes, I don't expect too much out of 2023. Hope, sure. Expect, no.

[Brandon]

On 1/26/2023 at 3:47 AM, Nine of twelve said:

Not all blown saves are losses.

And you could have 2 blown saves in the same game.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I tend to agree, but there are some reasons to be cautious about the Twins.

- The new balanced schedule. The Twins will no longer have 47% of their games beating up on AL Central teams.

- The offense could be streaky. When Buxton inevitably goes down with injury, the depth options are guys who don’t hit particularly well. We are relying on bounce back years from Gallo and Kepler. As well as progression from Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Wallner. Which may or may not happen. 

- The bullpen has remained unchanged. Which was a significant problem last season during our contending period. 

Overall I am optimistic, but there is still work left to do before I crown them division champs. 

The unbalanced schedule won’t affect who wins the division because it’s the same for all division teams.  The division winner may only have 84 wins as a result….
 

However, I agree with all other statements in this post.

[Vanimal46]

23 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The unbalanced schedule won’t affect who wins the division because it’s the same for all division teams.  The division winner may only have 84 wins as a result….
 

However, I agree with all other statements in this post.

I feel the same. First team to 85 wins is the division winner. 

[mnfireman]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

- The new balanced schedule. The Twins will no longer have 47% of their games beating up on AL Central teams.

The 2022 Minnesota Twins beat up on the AL Central to the tune of 39-37.... Cleveland however was 49-27.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 1/26/2023 at 6:47 AM, Nine of twelve said:

Not all blown saves are losses.

(and vice versa too, fwiw).

 

This has a "not all who wander are lost" vibe... I'll run with that.

Deep roots are not touched by the frost!

Optimistic, no?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

18 hours ago, Brandon said:

And you could have 2 blown saves in the same game.

When you say you, you are plural, right? Pretty sure an individual pitcher can only get 1 per game.

 

But i believe it possible that every pitcher but the starters could get a blown save.

 

I wonder... now if the starter doesn't go long enough to qualify for the win, can the reliever get a blown save?

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

When you say you, you are plural, right? Pretty sure an individual pitcher can only get 1 per game.

 

But i believe it possible that every pitcher but the starters could get a blown save.

 

I wonder... now if the starter doesn't go long enough to qualify for the win, can the reliever get a blown save?

Wonder: has there ever been a game where a team had 3 blown saves?

[Matthew Lenz]

I don’t think you need to be an optimist to think the Twins could win the division in 2023. A LOT went wrong in 2022.

[ashbury]

On 1/27/2023 at 4:09 PM, Brandon said:

And you could have 2 blown saves in the same game.

"You" the team, yes.  Not "you" the pitcher, I don't think.

[Nine of twelve]

On 1/28/2023 at 1:26 PM, Brandon said:

Wonder: has there ever been a game where a team had 3 blown saves?

Google is your friend.

The most blown saves by one team in a game is 4, most recently accomplished by NYY in a game at KC, 8/9/2021. NYY wound up winning in 11 innings.