What will we get back from the likely impending trade of Kepler

[purplesoldier4u]

Larnach is nowhere near the outfielder that Kepler is!

[arby58]

On 1/24/2023 at 10:20 AM, tony&rodney said:

Max Kepler is a good baseball player. I would rather hold him than trade him for less than another really good player. Maybe Kepler for Loaisiga, but otherwise just keep him in RF and batting 9th.

I'm having a hard time understanding your definition of 'a good baseball player.' If being below average is 'good,' ok, I'd agree with you, but I'd expect more. Last year ,the league average OPS was .706; Kepler's was .666. Last year, the 15th best right fielder in terms of OPS came in a .694, meaning from a hitting standpoint, Kepler was below average. Sure, he plays a good right field and he can run a bit, but he is definitely below average as a hitter. You can justify that for a catcher or shortstop or centerfielder, much harder to do for a corner outfielder.

[howeda7]

I see Larnach as the primary DH (along with Buxton). Kiriloff will play 1st if he's on the team. If AK isn't healthy, Gallo likely plays 1st and Larnach/Gordon move to LF. Either way, I don't see any need to move Kepler just to move him.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I'm having a hard time understanding your definition of 'a good baseball player.' If being below average is 'good,' ok, I'd agree with you, but I'd expect more. Last year ,the league average OPS was .706; Kepler's was .666. Last year, the 15th best right fielder in terms of OPS came in a .694, meaning from a hitting standpoint, Kepler was below average. Sure, he plays a good right field and he can run a bit, but he is definitely below average as a hitter. You can justify that for a catcher or shortstop or centerfielder, much harder to do for a corner outfielder.

I guess we will eventually see what the Twins think of Kepler.

[Byrdman]

Your starting OF is

Gallo=LF,

Buxton=CF/DH every 3rd day

Kepler=RF,

Taylor= 4th OF/rotating OF positions every day.  Plays min 3 games a week

Larnach=DH/ Buxton=DH on 3rd day

Gordon=LF/CF/2nd Utility player probably playing 2-3 games a week. 

Starting Infield

Kirilloff=1b

Polonco=2b

Correa=SS

Miranda=3b/1b/DH

Farmer rotating SS/3b/2nd for days off=3-4 games playing each week

We probably have the best defensive OF in the league with this group. There is no need to trade Kepler at all.  We are very set for the lineup. 

[Unwinder]

4 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I hope the Twins move Kepler for a solid relief pitcher or as part of a package to acquire another top starter.  Celestino seems redundant as well since acquiring Taylor.

IMO if you want to trade Kepler and you want a solid reliever, sign a free agent like Fulmer who costs less than Kepler, and trade Kepler for a prospect. Same result but you get a prospect.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/24/2023 at 2:15 PM, Beast said:

I don’t think we’re trading Kepler.

Not sure why we’re concerned about Larnach.  He’s not that good.  He might get there someday.  But, we’re trying to win baseball games right now.

Gallo is one of the best defensive corner outfielders in baseball.  Kepler is also.  Either of them would be our best defensive left fielder by a mile (excluding Buxton/Taylor).  Much better than Larnach or Gordon.  If Gallo and Kepler hit a little bit this year (whether regression or shift changes), we’re a way better team with both of them in the lineup.

If the FO thought Larnach or Gordon were a potential full time answer in left, they wouldn’t have brought in Gallo, IMO.  They didn’t bring him in to DH.  I can’t imagine Gallo would sign here to be a bench guy.  They likely gave him playing time assurances.  The Taylor move tells me they don’t want to move Gallo, Gordon or Kepler to CF when Buxton goes down.  They’re not going to pay Kepler his salary to be a 4th OF under Gordon.  That would be ridiculous on multiple levels.

I think we’ll see an OF of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler quite often, which has way more upside than Gordon or Larnach in there.

This is all assuming Alex K plays first.  If they’re going to surprise everyone and work him into the OF rotation, Larnach and Gordon are even more expendable.  Gordon’s “value” from being a utility/emergency SS is gone with Farmer, Polanco, and Lewis coming back (all are better).

Honestly, I might rather have Garlick over Larnach or Gordon.  His help against LH pitching might be more valuable than anything Larnach or Gordon could offer.  

I didn’t think they would pay Kepler & Gallo. Obviously, they are running an experiment with Gallo so he’s a fixture. Completely expected Max to be traded by now.

I do think they have to have huge reservations on Kirilof holding up for the season so Gallo seems to be the probable back up there v. RH pitching.

That said, Kepler may stay and play a fair amount if not regularly in RF.

I see Gordon as the every day LF and the primary back-up in CF vs. RH pitching. Last year he played 65 games in LF - I’d expect 80 games this year. Last year he played 33 games in CF - I’d expect 50 games this year.

Versus a RH starter:

Larnach at DH - Kirilof at 1B - Gallo in LF - Gordon in CF - Kepler in RF. 

2022 Stats:

Gallo - .169 BA in 350 AB’s. - 8 doubles - 19 HR - 47 RBI

Kepler - .227 BA in 388 AB’s - 18 doubles - 9 HR - 43 RBI

Gordon - .272 BA in 405 AB’s - 28 doubles - 9 HR - 50 RBI

Gordon is now & for foreseeable future, an outfielder with Farmer on roster. His stats support him playing in front of Kepler regardless of the size of Kepler’s check!!!

I do think Kepler will benefit from the shift lift! Gordon will as well, at a lesser level, since he hits less grounders. Gallo could go up 30 points and he’s still brutal!

I understand the experimentation with Gallo because his power upside is intriguing! We have enough good hitters around him to make the risk of this move worthwhile for 3-4 months to see how it goes. Another reason to hang in to Kepler until the deadline at a minimum, as insurance if Gallo is a total flop.

[August J Gloop]

6 hours ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Larnach is nowhere near the outfielder that Kepler is!

But he (probably? hopefully?) is a much better hitter. And he's still a positive value defender, so he's got bigger upside than Max at this point. 

[August J Gloop]

On 1/24/2023 at 8:28 PM, Dman said:

I was thinking there might be wink, wink agreement to sign him once roster spots open up or maybe another team has an under the table agreement with him but I have to believe once teams have roster spots available he won't be around long.

Odds are it's cuz he wants too much money and most of the teams he'd want to play for don't have a lot of spots. He'll sign up soon with the twins for a little less or the Pirates for a little more and the expectation of being flipped again. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Byrdman said:

Your starting OF is

Gallo=LF,

Buxton=CF/DH every 3rd day

Kepler=RF,

Taylor= 4th OF/rotating OF positions every day.  Plays min 3 games a week

Larnach=DH/ Buxton=DH on 3rd day

Gordon=LF/CF/2nd Utility player probably playing 2-3 games a week. 

Starting Infield

Kirilloff=1b

Polonco=2b

Correa=SS

Miranda=3b/1b/DH

Farmer rotating SS/3b/2nd for days off=3-4 games playing each week

We probably have the best defensive OF in the league with this group. There is no need to trade Kepler at all.  We are very set for the lineup. 

Interesting how people have the Team/Winning in mind & can differ on details in what they think is best. All part of fandom I guess?

Agree on Farmer playing time (considerable) with 100% usage against LH pitching.

Taylor I also see playing 100% of games vs LH pitching in CF. I think almost all of the rest of his play will come against LH relievers as well as a late inning Defensive replacement in OF in general.

Buxton 100%  DH vs. LH pitching…….probably 50 starts at DH in sum. I see him playing 75-80 games in CF. He takes off 35 games  - that’s 1,0-1.5 games per week of rest!

Miranda is at 1B for all LH pitching we face. He sits 25 games and plays 3B the balance of the schedule.

CC & Polanco will try to get 140-145 games played in the books……..Farmer spelling them both.

With great health, Kirilof will get in 110 games at 1B. Miranda 30 games. Gallo 20 games.

Gallo in LF v. RH pitching - Gordon in CF v. RH pitching - Kepler in RF v. RH pitching 50 games with this arrangement.

Gallo - 20 at 1B……50 in LF……..20 at DH……..40 in RF

Kepler - 120 in RF

Vazquez 110 games - Jeffers 52 games catching & 12 games at DH (100% of games v. LH pitching)

Larnach - 30 in LF……..80 games at DH

Other than Jeffers, everyone plays 110 to 140 games - great balance & depth!!! Nice opportunities to have situational success with LH bats with good splits & RH skewed line-up when advantageous!

Lewis will be involved by Late July - we’ll see who will still be standing & who may be trade bait at the deadline

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

But he (probably? hopefully?) is a much better hitter. And he's still a positive value defender, so he's got bigger upside than Max at this point. 

I appreciate the probably/hopefully.

Larnach’s age 24-25 major league seasons with an OPS+ of 94. Same ages in AA with an OPS at that level of .621. I think there is a lot of hope in that upside.

Like Celestino, he may really benefit from having a shot to dominate AAA. I wouldn’t trade Kepler without getting a return that will be real help to the 2023 Twins. 

[MesaTwinsFan]

I don't believe anyone on the Twins could benefit more by the new shift rules than Kepler. The vast majority of his ground balls hit were fielded in short right field. As hard as Kepler hits hits no second baseman will field that ball without the shift. I could be wrong but a little patience and we might have the hitter he started out as and come up with some surprising numbers. The level of return will not change much between now and July. If he does well the return could be very good

 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/24/2023 at 12:01 PM, CoasterProductions said:

I like Glashow and Springs for the rotation. What if we move Ober, Maeda, Celestino, and Pagan for both of them?

Not sure about Tampa wanting to trade for offense?? ……..Glasnow - 29 yrs - is a physical mess!!! 409 innings over 7 years in the Show ….6 innings in 2022. Over 100 innings once (111) 5 years ago. 6’8” with impressive stuff but he’s averaged 58 innings per year over 7 seasons - NO THANKS!!

Springs - 29 yrs. - pitched for Texas/Boston and apparently was a reliever for 4 years ………it appears 1 year a starter in Tampa. Decent/good year last year but 20 - 40 innings per year in Texas/Boston. Arm troubles? 1 yr. he had a 7.38 ERA. No real track record that’s much better than Ober…..135 innings in ‘22. Had a 2.5 ERA in ‘22 but no track record prior.

McClanahan - 25 yrs. - has had 2 years in the Show and is 22–14 with a 2.92 ERA over 2 years. 166 innings in ‘22. 6th in Cy Young voting in ‘22. Can’t imagine they are looking to move him for any package of players.

He’s worth Martin - Salas - Kepler - J. Lopez - Celestino - maybe another prospect or an arm with some control - i.e. Winder.

Wouldn’t consider either of the other 2. Maybe Springs, but his history is weak & gives little evidence he’s anywhere near a #1 guy.

If they dobwant offense in trade for their pitching in Tampa, 3 pitchers & Celestino in trade isn’t going to attract them.

[jkcarew]

Taylor doesn’t replace Kepler. Taylor is playing a corner against left-handed pitching…and every-day CF WHEN (not if) Buxton goes down.

If you’re comfy turning the keys over to Larnach…I’m not there yet…otherwise, you part with Kepler only if someone desperate for 2023 overpays with a high-end prospect (could happen…maybe more likely at trade deadline?)

[Matthew Lenz]

I think at this point we either add a middle RP or get a small prospect package. That said, I’m not sure it’s guaranteed we deal him.

[Fatbat]

On 1/24/2023 at 9:27 AM, IA Bean Counter said:

We have a redundancy in right field with both Kepler and Gallo.  I suppose you could flip one to left field, but then there really isn't a spot for Larnach.  

With that said there have been lots of rumors about trading Kepler and I expect that to be the last big move other than possibly signing another reliever.  

Starting pitching looks deep, so likely not an area we would add.   So the question is do we get prospects or do we trade for a reliever.  Do we just hold off,  and deal with the logjam in the outfield - or dfa celestino and/or larnach.  Some interesting decisions coming up.  

 

On 1/24/2023 at 9:27 AM, IA Bean Counter said:

We have a redundancy in right field with both Kepler and Gallo.  I suppose you could flip one to left field, but then there really isn't a spot for Larnach.  

With that said there have been lots of rumors about trading Kepler and I expect that to be the last big move other than possibly signing another reliever.  

Starting pitching looks deep, so likely not an area we would add.   So the question is do we get prospects or do we trade for a reliever.  Do we just hold off,  and deal with the logjam in the outfield - or dfa celestino and/or larnach.  Some interesting decisions coming up.  

Megill would get DFA’d before any position player. IMHO

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

 

Megill would get DFA’d before any position player. IMHO

I might have thought that before they dropped a pitcher to roster Michael A Taylor.  Now they are down to a 23-17 pitcher-batter split and I'm not sure they are comfortable at 22-18.

[jorgenswest]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I might have thought that before they dropped a pitcher to roster Michael A Taylor.  Now they are down to a 23-17 pitcher-batter split and I'm not sure they are comfortable at 22-18.

Do you think it matters that they have some non roster pitchers that have experienced some success in the major leagues? How much different in value is Megill from Coulombe or Murphy or Ortega? They all have similar projections. I don’t think they need to concern themselves with ratio at this point. 

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think it matters that they have some non roster pitchers that have experienced some success in the major leagues? How much different in value is Megill from Coulombe or Murphy or Ortega? They all have similar projections. I don’t think they need to concern themselves with ratio at this point. 

I guess I was responding more to what I think the FO "would" do, rather than what they "should" do.  They've shown a preference for sheer numbers of arms at their disposal to churn through over the course of a season.

[jorgenswest]

43 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I guess I was responding more to what I think the FO "would" do, rather than what they "should" do.  They've shown a preference for sheer numbers of arms at their disposal to churn through over the course of a season.

I agree. I am sure they will have one or two revolving 40 man spots churning through arms. It probably depends most on how they view Megill. Is he one to rotate through or is he someone they see as a late inning solution? If rotate I think they he might be next on the DFA list.