Kepler Might Be a Few Tweaks Away From Getting Back on Track

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Max Kepler's name has been in trade rumors throughout the offseason, but what if he isn't traded? Is there any reason to believe that he could make some adjustments and become valuable at the plate again? 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

No position player in the Minnesota Twins organization has been less appreciated in the last few weeks/months than Max Kepler. After a hot start to the 2022 season, the German outfielder saw his offensive productivity dramatically decrease in the second half of the season, mainly after suffering a fracture in his right pinky toe in mid-July.

He’s now the guy most Twins fans want the team to get rid of, but since his trade value isn’t very high right now, Minnesota might have no other option but to stick with him for now. Which brings me to the question: can Kepler get back on track and help the Twins' offense in 2023? I think there are reasons to believe so. 

Kepler’s regression isn’t an individual outcome
Kepler had arguably the worst offensive performance of his career in 2022. With a career-worst .666 OPS. It was the first time in his big-league career that it went below .719 for a season. But he was hardly the only Twin to see his offensive productivity plummet in the last three years.

In three seasons under former hitting coach James Rowson (2017-2019), Minnesota had an elite offense, ranking among the top five or six best offenses in baseball in a number of offensive metrics: fifth in baseball in wRC+ (105), sixth in OPS (.775), fifth in SLG (.445), sixth in wOBA (.330), and fifth in ISO (.185). In the following three seasons after the New York native departed the organization, the Twins failed to rank at the league’s top ten in most of those same metrics.

Kepler experienced his offensive peak with Rowson as the Twins' hitting coach with back-to-back above-average seasons (wRC+ above 100). Since his departure, he regressed into a slightly below-average hitter, similar to the one he was when Rowson joined the club.

The past couple of seasons have been rough for the entirety of Minnesota’s offense, which possibly had more downs than ups. David Popkins took over as the team’s hitting coach after the 2021 season, making 2022 a season of getting used to a whole new regime. Kepler struggled overall, but that doesn’t mean he did everything wrong. Here’s why.

Kepler might be a few tweaks away from getting back on track
When browsing through Kepler’s Baseball Savant page, you get smacked in the face with his surprisingly good 2022 Percentile Rankings. What conclusions can we draw from this?

• He failed to get good quality, hard contact last season. While his average exit velocity (89.1 MPH), Barrel% (7.1), and HardHit% (39.9) are still slightly above league average, last year’s percentile rankings in those metrics are some of the worst in his career. Curiously, though, all three of them were worse in 2020, the last season in which Kepler finished with an above-average wRC+.
• He might never have been more disciplined at the plate than last season. Despite his struggles with hitting for power, Kepler posted a career-best 14.8% K%, making him better than 88% of all hitters in baseball. Also, he had an 11% BB%, well above league average (8.4%), making it the third consecutive season with an 11% or better walk rate. He draws more walks than 84% of all major-league hitters. His Whiff% (19.9) and Chase% (23.5) are also among the league’s best.
• His expected stats might indicate some improvement is coming. Expected statistics are fun to look at. They aren’t necessarily predictive, but they can tell you how well a player is doing things compared to the league-wide execution. For instance, Kepler’s expected stats trended upward in the first two seasons of Rowson with the Twins, resulting in a great 2019 season for him. Then, they started trending downward for the following two seasons, resulting in a poor overall performance in 2022. But as you can see in the image above, his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG had some of the best percentile rankings of his career.

So what does Kepler need to do to improve in 2023? And will he?
When you hit rock bottom, there’s nowhere to go but up. Assuming 2022 was Kepler’s rock bottom offensively, it is logical to believe that he’s bound for some improvement, especially after finding out he’s in an upward trend in his expected stats. This is not just a logical conclusion from myself: several projections also believe Kepler will be a better hitter in 2023. On his FanGraphs page, you can see how every pre-season projection (the green rows) expects him to reach at least 103 wRC+ this year, with the most optimistic one saying he could reach 113 wRC+.

But how can that happen?

Well, the good news is that we know what he needs to work on this offseason and preseason: putting the ball in the air. Kepler’s decreased productivity on offense goes hand in hand with his reduced launch angle and increased ground ball rate. In 2020, his last season with a wRC+ above 100, his launch angle average was 22.2, a career-best. In 2022, however, that came down to 11.2, the smallest one since his rookie season. His ground ball rate also increased significantly in that span, going from 32.4% in 2020 to 45.7% last year.

If Kepler gets back on track, what does that mean for the Twins?
Kepler is one of MLB’s best defensive outfielders, ranking sixth in the majors in OAA (11) and ninth in DRS (9). Most of his 2.0 fWAR in 2022 was thanks to his defensive contributions. If he can improve the aspects mentioned in the previous paragraph and regain some confidence offensively, he can become an important cog in the Twins' offense. But does that mean he’ll stick around long? Not necessarily.

The Luis Arraez trade proved Minnesota’s front office is willing even to part ways with a fan-favorite in order to improve their roster. In the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler’s appreciation was never close to that of Arráez’s, so if Kepler actually manages to get back on track offensively, he might become a valuable trade piece. With outfielders such as Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras having already made their big-league debut, it’s hard to imagine Kepler, who’s in the final year of his contract, not getting dealt soon, provided he regains some of his trade value.

 

View full article

[jorgenswest]

My uninformed opinion from my recliner thinks he has tried to hard to hit the ball to the opposite field. The result has been too much weak contact and a lower launch angle. He needs to go up to the plate looking for a pitch to attack and drive it to the pull side.

[Dman]

Given the Arraez trade and the fact the Twins should have three open spots on the 40 man around spring training when Lewis, Canterino and Paddack get put on the IL there is a solid chance the Twins roll with Max as well as Gallo.  There is so much up in the air with Kepler and his projected performance it seems like it might be hard for the Twins to get fair value for him.

He does do a lot of things right.  Plays really good defense, has a good eye at the plate, can hit for power and runs well.  Like the OP mentioned if he can tweak a thing or two he could have his breakout for real this time.  The tough part is we have been waiting for it since 2019 so he could still just be who he is which seems to be about 2 WAR player which isn't bad either.  

I can't say I love potentially carrying 8 outfielders on the 40 man but with currently only 6 infielders it looks like the Twins can make it work if they want too.  It could go either way IMO.  Once those spots open up I see the Twins grabbing a reliever or two and maybe something for first maybe not and looks to me like they will be done.  They don't have to sell low on Kepler and if I were them I wouldn't as he has good value now and possibly more with a little better luck.

[rv78]

If you look at his 2017 and 2018 seasons under Rowson there is not a major difference to them compared to his 2020, 2021 and 2022 seasons. His 2019 season which was probably his career year is out of the norm and not what to expect from him. You also have to remember in 2019 they used the juice ball which is not in play anymore. That is another reason to think and expect that he won't replicate his 2019 numbers again.

[Reptevia]

“When browsing through Kepler’s Baseball Savant page, you get smacked in the face with his surprisingly good 2022 Percentile Rankings. What conclusions can we draw from this?”  We can conclude that modern metrics that only attempt to measure speculative things are pretty much useless. Should one base projections based on facts (past performance ) or should decisions be based on basically hopes and wishes?  Logic dictates that wise decisions are based on facts, not speculation. 

[Rik19753]

While the statcast numbers paint a nice picture, the fact that Kepler does not produce at the level that his underlying numbers suggest he should is ancient history to everyone that has been following the Twins. 

 

The front office should be texting all of these numbers to other general managers to get them to bite. I'm sure some GMs who have not been watching Kepler play every day will look at the numbers and see a buy-low opportunity.

 

And I have nothing against Kepler, I think he is a great personality but his fate was sealed when Gallo signed. Although it makes one wonder who would possibly trade anything of value for Kepler when they could have just signed a very similar player in Gallo for 4M more.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am really curious what the TD blowback will be if/when the Twins Opening Day OF is Gallo, Buxton, Kepler.   We might see frogs, pestilence, and locusts...

Personally, I won't complain.  It will amazing to watch defensively,

[Dan Engebretson]

Data from Fangraphs (below) shows that Kepler's first half numbers are solid, but routinely (and sometimes catastrophically) fall off in the second half.  I know last year he broke a toe in June and struggled after that.  I wonder if Kepler wears down or plays through/with injury and it hurts his offensive productivity.  Perhaps changes in the training staff will help.

First Half numbers:

Second Half:

[JD-TWINS]

With the “huge promise” that Larnach has & with the signing of Gallo, the only way for Kepler to play is for Gordon to sit.

Don’t know what the metrics say about Gordon? I do know he gained 25lb from January to June & he played about 100 games in the outfield last year. He was solid in LF for 65 games & in CF for about 35 games. My assumption for this year was he would play another 15 games at each position and hit at the level he did in ‘22.

In 405 AB’s he had 28 doubles & 9 HR & had a .272 BA.

With another 125-150 AB’s he projects out to 13-14 HR & near 40 doubles. He has decent speed. In actuality, still growing & getting stronger, since he mastered his intestinal ailment.

I don’t dislike Max Kepler. I really appreciate his defense! His supposed power brought up in a couple comments only existed in 2019……see juiced ball season. I do think the “shift” elimination has the potential to help Kepler maybe as much as 20-25 points in BA. His OBP & RBI can jump with this change as well. The problem is the Gallo signing makes Kepler’s talents and his accompanying salary not a fit for the ‘23 Twin’s roster.

Gordon produced in ‘22 & should be pencilled in for LF & for Buxton’s primary back up in CF.

If Gallo DH’s 10% of games - plays RF 30% of the time - 20% of the time in LF - 1B 10% of the time maybe he doesn’t disrupt Larnach & Kirilof & Gordon’s development? In this scenario Kepler plays 70% of the time in RF & we see if he gets his trade value up OR if we move Gallo at the deadline. It’s possible we DFA Gallo if he’s not producing by mid- June!

I still see best scenario for the organization (after the questionable signing of Gallo) is to figure out what team that’s expected to contend & may have an expendable arm & may have interest in LH batting - everyday outfielder. We can throw in guys under team control (Celestino - Jeffers - Martin) & maybe a veteran reliever with upside……..Pagan - J. Lopez. This pkg. with Kepler has to be worth something to a handful of teams - right?

[Fat Calvin]

I'll always remember the look on Bauer's face when Max hit his third dinger of the day off of him.  For that, Kep will always have a warm place in my heart.  I hope we keep him this year.

 

[Jeff D.]

Interesting to read this. I am surprised Kepler is still with us after this winter, but it does not surprise me much with our Twins anymore. 

I believe that it is absolutely wiser to believe in this article than to believe Mr. Buxton will play 100 games or Mr. Baldelli will change his game management.

I am also hopeful that Kepler will have a more productive year with the shift changing rules. He is a pleasure to watch in the field, He can be very patient at the plate. He is zero drama on this team. I would love to see a rebound for the guy and this team. I also chuckled reading Popkins name. Talk about Mr. Irrelevant (Sorry, I tossed in a football reference), I had forgotten he was our hitting coach.

I like the optimism and research from Mr. Rabelo in the article. 

I, the old geezer will remain skeptical but loyal. GO TWINS~

Twins Geezer..........out!

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

I'll always remember the look on Bauer's face when Max hit his third dinger of the day off of him.  For that, Kep will always have a warm place in my heart.  I hope we keep him this year.

 

Well said 😅

[Thiéres Rabelo]

15 hours ago, Reptevia said:

“When browsing through Kepler’s Baseball Savant page, you get smacked in the face with his surprisingly good 2022 Percentile Rankings. What conclusions can we draw from this?”  We can conclude that modern metrics that only attempt to measure speculative things are pretty much useless. Should one base projections based on facts (past performance ) or should decisions be based on basically hopes and wishes?  Logic dictates that wise decisions are based on facts, not speculation. 

So base your projection in this fact: Kepler was an above-average hitter for his first 85 games in 2022 (115 wRC+, .734 OPS, 12.2% BB%, 14.5% K%). Then, he had two IL stints, one for a fractured toe and one for a sprained wrist, resulting in him playing only 30 games after July 24.

[jmlease1]

It's hard to get too excited about significant improvement from Kepler, because it seems pretty unlikely. Is it possible? Sure, but to date he's only really ever had 1 good season as a hitter. And that season was certainly appears to have had a juiced baseball, but regardless something happened that season that sent a substantially higher number of Kepler fly balls into the seats and without that factor he's been a below average hitter.

(yes, he was above average in 2020, but that small sample season probably isn't representative of who he is as a player; that season he also was relatively poor defensively and it all likely had more to do with a smaller sample than anything else. Over a full season he defensive stats likely would have risen and his offense would have slipped)

He's a fine defensive player in RF, with a strong arm and excellent range. But there's real flaws in his approach and execution at the plate. there are some nice looking "red numbers" on his Baseball savant page, but he's in the white on some pretty important ones: avg exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit %. The fact that his max exit velocity is in the 93rd % means that he tattooed the snot out of ONE ball...but most of the time he didn't hit it that hard. It's great that he didn't chase the ball out of the zone, took walks, and wasn't a K machine...but looking at his barrel % & hard-hit % it matches up to the eye test rather well: Kepler hit a frustrating amount of weak grounders and lazy flies.

the shift functionally going away will help some of those grounders to bleed into hits...but how many? (it's been suggested that over the course of a season it'll likely be 5-10. That doesn't move the needle much for Kepler as an offensive force, even if you added 10 hits to last season's injury shortened season) To have a good season, Kepler needs to hit the ball harder consistently and it's hard to say there's much evidence that he will. He's still not a bad player, but a significant part of his value will be in his defense and his ability to get walks.

[Reptevia]

3 hours ago, Thiéres Rabelo said:

So base your projection in this fact: Kepler was an above-average hitter for his first 85 games in 2022 (115 wRC+, .734 OPS, 12.2% BB%, 14.5% K%). Then, he had two IL stints, one for a fractured toe and one for a sprained wrist, resulting in him playing only 30 games after July 24.

Let’s base it on an even larger sample size- his entire career. He’s basically had one good year that was based largely on the live ball (2019).   His OPS and OPS+ have declined every year since 2019. 

[Thiéres Rabelo]

4 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Let’s base it on an even larger sample size- his entire career. He’s basically had one good year that was based largely on the live ball (2019).   His OPS and OPS+ have declined every year since 2019. 

If you're looking at his entire career, you should know that he has a career .744 OPS, combined with outstanding defense. His OPS dropped below .719 in a season for the first time in his career in 2022 and that's only because of his injuries.