Rumor: Arraez turned down a Twins offer before last year

[h2oface]

Similarly, does that mean if Lopez gets offered an extension this year, and he wants to wait and bet on himself for a while (waiting is not necessarily a no, especially if the offer is too low in the players opinion), that he needs to be traded at the deadline with 1 1/2 years on his contract left, like Berrios and Pressly?

[The_Phantom]

On 1/22/2023 at 4:39 PM, Dman said:

 

Reusse didn't mention Arraez's knee issue's.  Didn't mention keeping him healthy meant keeping him at 1st and DH more and resting him versus lefties when possible. 

 

 

On 1/22/2023 at 4:47 PM, Wizard11 said:

Will you eat crow if Arraez’s knees blow out and he is lost for the season?

Why are so many twins fans so eager to point out Arraez may have potential injury issues, yet don’t mention the fact that Pablo Lopez missed almost half of 2019 and half of 2021 with shoulder/rotator cuff strains

[Dman]

4 hours ago, The_Phantom said:

 

Why are so many twins fans so eager to point out Arraez may have potential injury issues, yet don’t mention the fact that Pablo Lopez missed almost half of 2019 and half of 2021 with shoulder/rotator cuff strains

I guess mainly because a significant number (probably majority) of pitchers spend some time on the IL during the season.  I think every Twins pitcher last year except maybe Bundy missed starts for some issue or another.  It kind of goes with the territory and I think it is why the Twins and a lot of other teams don't like to do long term deals for pitchers.

Sure the odds of Lopez missing more time than Arraez are more likely than the other way around but the Twins needed more pitching depth so here we are.  In a perfect world the Twins wouldn't be in a position where a trade like this makes sense.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, h2oface said:

Similarly, does that mean if Lopez gets offered an extension this year, and he wants to wait and bet on himself for a while (waiting is not necessarily a no, especially if the offer is too low in the players opinion), that he needs to be traded at the deadline with 1 1/2 years on his contract left, like Berrios and Pressly?

Depends on several things. 

1. How good are twins at the 2023 deadline.

2. The return for Lopez.

3. How good are Varland / Winder / SWR / Canterino / Balazovic / Prielipp / Festa and Raya looking.  If 3 or 4 of them are absolutely dominating in Milb, it would make the move easier.

4. What is his ask.

5. How does Maeda bounce back and Paddack could be ready by then.  How does he look at that point.

6. How well are Ober / Ryan pitching.

7. Their willingness to really pony up next year and spend on a top free agent pitcher.  The dollars will be available.  They have Mahle / Gray / Maeda / Pagan / Gallo and Taylor coming off.  They will likely trade Kepler and Farmer or decline Kepler's option.  They can also non-tender farmer. 

That's a total of $61M coming off if they were to trade Lopez.  They can spend half on one pitcher if they can fill four spots  in the 2024 rotation between Ryan / Ober / Paddack / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and Festa.  Perhaps Prielipp and Raya become options during the 2024 season.  Perhaos they extend Gray or Maeda on a shorter deal.  Put Nola or Severino and the front of that group and you have something.

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, The_Phantom said:

 

Why are so many twins fans so eager to point out Arraez may have potential injury issues, yet don’t mention the fact that Pablo Lopez missed almost half of 2019 and half of 2021 with shoulder/rotator cuff strains

Because Arraez has been on the roster for a few years, and Lopez just got here? That might be it. Or, in a thread about Arraez, more people are taking about him than someone else?

[h2oface]

10 hours ago, Dman said:

I guess mainly because a significant number (probably majority) of pitchers spend some time on the IL during the season.  I think every Twins pitcher last year except maybe Bundy missed starts for some issue or another.  It kind of goes with the territory and I think it is why the Twins and a lot of other teams don't like to do long term deals for pitchers.

Sure the odds of Lopez missing more time than Arraez are more likely than the other way around but the Twins needed more pitching depth so here we are.  In a perfect world the Twins wouldn't be in a position where a trade like this makes sense.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/twins-notes-rotation-ober-arraez.html

Part of this more perfect world would be if the FO actually developed pitchers, like I understood at hiring, was their specialty. The complete projected starting five for 2023 were acquired by trade, and so was Paddack. SWR, and Duran. There are more, too. 6 years in, and they trade their best developed (Graterol) or highest potential pitchers from draft (Chase Petty), or don't draft them when they have the chance (Hunter Greene). Hard to develop them when you don't have them. It seems the other teams they are trading with are doing the developing of pitching prospects better than our guys.

If they developed their closest, or best prospects, instead of trading for arms that are known injury gambles,and only middle of rotation pitchers, perhaps they wouldn't be in a position where a trade like batting champ fan favorite Arraez for oft hurt and a gamble like Lopez makes sense to them (but not necessarily the majority of keen fans).

[SkyBlueWaters]

On 1/23/2023 at 12:56 PM, Mike Sixel said:

You might want to check out Mahle compared to all the other pitchers in baseball....I'm not sure why you are looking at the playoffs only, as that is not the definition of a number 3 starter. The point is to make the playoffs first....

Are you imagining a team built to last through three rounds of playoffs (plus perhaps the wild card) that can't win during the regular season?

As I pointed out earlier, Mahle's career WHIP is 1.315, his career ERA is 4.35. That's fine for a team that doesn't expect to get to the playoffs. 

So how are you stacking Mahle up against other number threes and finding him an advantage to the Twins? 

Again, I'm tired of seeing the Twins as not-quite-good-enough. Generally, I'd like to see the Twins rotation as deep and capable of playing well against the better teams in the league. I don't think we had that by the end of 2022. (Check out our won/loss record against the teams that made the playoffs last year. It was bad.) I'm still not optimistic, but I think we are better with Pablo Lopez in our rotation.

Also, earlier you listed Lopez as one of the numerous number threes. But of course, before the Arraez trade, he wasn't one of our pitchers.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

Are you imagining a team built to last through three rounds of playoffs (plus perhaps the wild card) that can't win during the regular season?

As I pointed out earlier, Mahle's career WHIP is 1.315, his career ERA is 4.35. That's fine for a team that doesn't expect to get to the playoffs. 

So how are you stacking Mahle up against other number threes and finding him an advantage to the Twins? 

Again, I'm tired of seeing the Twins as not-quite-good-enough. Generally, I'd like to see the Twins rotation as deep and capable of playing well against the better teams in the league. I don't think we had that by the end of 2022. (Check out our won/loss record against the teams that made the playoffs last year. It was bad.) I'm still not optimistic, but I think we are better with Pablo Lopez in our rotation.

Also, earlier you listed Lopez as one of the numerous number threes. But of course, before the Arraez trade, he wasn't one of our pitchers.

 

He put up a 3.75era last year. He was in the top fifty in fwar. 

[twinlukers]

On 1/22/2023 at 1:30 PM, chpettit19 said:

When the 2nd sentence of the article is "Terry Ryan, the former Twins general manager, used a 2-through-8 system to have his scouts evaluate players" you know it's just going to be about how the game was better back in the day, and these new young guys, and their "analytics," don't know what they're doing.

While I'll be the first to say that analytics have made the game far less entertaining with the 3 true outcomes, it's embarrassing to tie the scouting scale to Terry Ryan like that. News flash: the Twins current front office also uses the 20-80 scale! Terry Ryan wasn't some super genius who was doing something outrageous. The 20-80 scale for scouting players was used by Branch Rickey who died back in the 60s. It's been around for a little while. Using Terry Ryan's name there is simply an attempt to get the "old school" crowd riled up.

As for Arraez and an extension, he's not the first player to turn one down and won't be the last. Good for him for not taking less than he feels he's worth. And good for the Twins for not paying more for a player than they think he's worth.

Well said and I’m an old schooler myself. The Game has changed!! The kids have changed and if the players these days have heart and the skills they will endure! It’s a business!! My Son realized it when he was in collage. It took him out of the game and kids who work hard and look at the bigger picture just choose to not play the business game. Humble players like Puckett, Nathan, Byron, Molitor show that. 
just saying..

[Halsey Hall]

I agree with Reusse here.  Perhaps being the same age has got. Something to do with it.  We both grew up with what I’ll call “pure” baseball.   So much has changed, but you don’t trade a batting champ.

[SkyBlueWaters]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He put up a 3.75era last year. He was in the top fifty in fwar. 

Wrong. His ERA was 4.40 for Cincy, 4.41 for us, when he was healthy enough to start.

his ERA+ was 100. An average pitcher. If nothing else, look at the three prospects the Twins gave up for him. Do you find them on any top prospect lists?

 

[Mike Sixel]

46 minutes ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

Wrong. His ERA was 4.40 for Cincy, 4.41 for us, when he was healthy enough to start.

his ERA+ was 100. An average pitcher. If nothing else, look at the three prospects the Twins gave up for him. Do you find them on any top prospect lists?

 

I thought we were discussing Lopez!

You have to give up quality to get quality. If you only trade crap prospects, good luck.

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Halsey Hall said:

I agree with Reusse here.  Perhaps being the same age has got. Something to do with it.  We both grew up with what I’ll call “pure” baseball.   So much has changed, but you don’t trade a batting champ.

You do trade them if the right offer comes along.  I think it did.  Time will tell.

[Halsey Hall]

19 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

You do trade them if the right offer comes along.  I think it did.  Time will tell.

Maybe you do, but I dont.

[davidborton]

On 1/22/2023 at 1:32 PM, Shaitan said:

...And find me one employee, anywhere, who doesn't think they're worth more than their boss pays them.

I managed compensation for 35 yrs in healthcare. While many a staff beat their path to my door demanding more pay, never did one crease my door saying, "You're paying me too much."

[twinlukers]

On 1/25/2023 at 3:30 PM, SkyBlueWaters said:

Are you imagining a team built to last through three rounds of playoffs (plus perhaps the wild card) that can't win during the regular season?

As I pointed out earlier, Mahle's career WHIP is 1.315, his career ERA is 4.35. That's fine for a team that doesn't expect to get to the playoffs. 

So how are you stacking Mahle up against other number threes and finding him an advantage to the Twins? 

Again, I'm tired of seeing the Twins as not-quite-good-enough. Generally, I'd like to see the Twins rotation as deep and capable of playing well against the better teams in the league. I don't think we had that by the end of 2022. (Check out our won/loss record against the teams that made the playoffs last year. It was bad.) I'm still not optimistic, but I think we are better with Pablo Lopez in our rotation.

Also, earlier you listed Lopez as one of the numerous number threes. But of course, before the Arraez trade, he wasn't one of our pitchers.

 

To me it’s great to see the twins pull sone strings and work at getting the pitching staff in a positive position for the year. But my main concern for the twins is the closer. I believe that they really need to make a choice!! Get one from the free agency or trade some of our position players that are just holding their own and not moving up the chain… if a player wants to be noticed it has to be at the plate. No matter what league they are in.

I really believe Brooks Lee has a bright future here. His maturity has improved more than he is given credit for and he has that very competitive edge.  Let’s do it twins!! Get that young talent going!!

[baul0010]

On 1/22/2023 at 3:14 PM, Squirrel said:

Not only that, but by adding Salas, it's another piece we can use in a trade. It was a good move. Lopez wasn't the pitcher I'd have gone after, as I've said, but, I think the Twins made a good value trade.

I think at the end of the day, it was the best trade that was available.  I don't think the Twins wanted to trade Arraez for Lopez.  I think they would have preferred a trade centered around Kepler.  I think there is no interest in Kepler and other than the Marlins, minimal interest in Arraez.  I'd rather have another solid number 3 starter than an slap hitting 1st baseman.  We are acting like Arraez was Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew.  He's had very good half season's and then his output declines with the wear and tear of the season.