Rumor: Arraez turned down a Twins offer before last year

[Brad.dahlen]

25 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

That’s just not true. One could say they valued him more than others because he’s the one who got the return they wanted and cleared space for Kirilloff, Lee, Julien and/or Lewis. This trade was all about value on many levels, not about lack of it. This game is played by human beings, and we all are emotional about our favorites and perceptions of good. FOs have to be more objective than that and view their players not just as human beings but as assets or no one would get traded ever. It’s probably the hard part of the job, especially with one as well liked as Arraez. I hate when players get traded away or non tendered. I still feel pangs for Eduardo and Eddie. But in the end, those were all the right decisions to make, imo, including this trade of Arraez.

Agreed! I like the trade as well. I think a better way for me to state my opinion would be, I don't think the FO saw as much long term value as other teams might have. 

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants.

I completely disagree with this statement. The shift is keeping batting averages down leaguewide but not for Arraez. His spray chart is all over the place and teams rarely shift on him. The revised shifting rules will raise batting averages for the rest of the players in the league which will make the gap between them and Arraez smaller. It makes Arraez less valuable with respect to other hitters.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Arraez's play at 1B is the perfect example of the metrics or stats making a player out to be better than he was. I saw too many times where he went after a ball to his right that he should not have and too many times where he did not leave the base to save a bad throw, resulting in extra bases for the runner. To me, the eye test wins out over the metrics concerning his defensive play at 1B, and he did not pass.

The other first basemen in the American League are not great defensively. Arraez isn't perfect but he's good as the competition.

[Major League Ready]

46 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

That’s just not true. One could say they valued him more than others because he’s the one who got the return they wanted and cleared space for Kirilloff, Lee, Julien and/or Lewis. This trade was all about value on many levels, not about lack of it. This game is played by human beings, and we all are emotional about our favorites and perceptions of good. FOs have to be more objective than that and view their players not just as human beings but as assets or no one would get traded ever. It’s probably the hard part of the job, especially with one as well liked as Arraez. I hate when players get traded away or non tendered. I still feel pangs for Eduardo and Eddie. But in the end, those were all the right decisions to make, imo, including this trade of Arraez.

 

19 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

Agreed! I like the trade as well. I think a better way for me to state my opinion would be, I don't think the FO saw as much long term value as other teams might have. 

Squirrel's point about the value of this trade having multiple levels makes this an interesting case.  Arreaz did one thing extremely well.  However, when the Twins look at how they replace him, it's not a simple player to player comparison.  He was a below average defender and base runner with little power and he did not hit LH pitching well.  The key to how this works out with a guy that fit in wherever they had room will be how they cover his ABs in aggregate. 

Can Kirilloff provide better defense at 1B and equal offensive production.  Can Julien provide an equal OBP with more power and therefore a higher OPS / wRC+ along with above average base running and equal defense.  Can Martin provide similar OBP with better defensive value and great base running.  Will the additions of Lewis and Lee squeeze Arraez out?  In other words, will the players taking his ABs collectively cover the offense of Arraez while gaining in other areas?   The more I think about it, the more I think they can cover his departure.

[Squirrel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The more I think about it, the more I think they can cover his departure.

And I would guess the FO thinks so, too, or they wouldn't have traded him. However ... if that doesn't happen, then they projected incorrectly and will have to make more moves during the season. Or, maybe they aren't through, yet, and more is to come. The off-season isn't over yet.

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

And I would guess the FO thinks so, too, or they wouldn't have traded him. However ... if that doesn't happen, then they projected incorrectly and will have to make more moves during the season. Or, maybe they aren't through, yet, and more is to come. The off-season isn't over yet.

Agreed.  If the FO didn't think they'd be able to cover the loss, it wouldn't have made the deal.  They have options to fill the void.  They dealt from a position of depth to acquire a position of weakness.  

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, darin617 said:

Boras is not his agent. Baseball reference has it lasted as  Agents: MVP Sports Group

I thought I read it in passing, sorry I was wrong. Thank you for setting me straight.

[jmlease1]

Arraez did pretty well at 1B defensively this season, especially considering having basically never played the position before as a pro. As a 2B, he's below average. not awful, but not particularly good. Similar at 3B: acceptable, but not good defensively. the fact that he can play multiple positions in the infield adds value beyond just the results; positional flexibility is a very useful intangible benefit for a team.

however, the Twins very clearly felt that it was going to be hard to keep Arraez on the field playing 2B or 3B and that his knees/legs needed the time at 1B/DH to stay in the lineup. Miami has him at 2B right now, so I guess we'll find out if the Twins were right on this one. But if he's missing more time and/or needs to slide down to 1B/DH, the need for more offensive production jumps up. As noted, even with Arraez's batting title, his overall OPS put him in the middle of the pack among 1Bs last season. And that was his best and healthiest (in terms of games played) as a professional. he doesn't hit the ball hard, and there's little evidence that he ever will on a consistent basis.

He's got a great skill in making contact, avoiding Ks, getting on base, working counts, and collecting hits. there's real value in that, and it's also very fun to watch. But it does limit his upside, and it's more than fair to worry about his health. It was painful to see him limping through games last season, though I give him credit for fighting through it when we were so short-handed. but those leg injuries mean he's not adding value on the bases, and make it hard to see him getting through the season at 2B. 

I can understand people calling Lopez a #3 starter...but he pitched more like a #2 last season. Now, that was also his healthiest and most successful season (from a value standpoint) as well, so maybe we won't get more or even that much from lopez, but there's a very fair argument to be made that right now he should be seen as the 2nd best pitcher in the rotation, behind Gray. personally, I wanted any pitching acquisition to be better than Gray...but when the argument is now whether Mahle or Maeda is the 5th guy in the rotation, then that's a pretty deep group and a significant improvement over the rotation we had last season, which had a ton of starts made by Dylan Bundy (who was well below average), Chris Archer (who couldn't throw enough innings and was unquestionably below average), Devin Smeltzer (who was more lucky than good last season), and Josh Winder (who had results more like we should have expected from Smeltzer). I'll be a lot happier fan if those 77 starts are eaten up by Lopez, Mahle, and Maeda.

[dex8425]

20 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

They filled a great need for another #3 starter when they have an entire rotation full? I think this could easily go down as the worst trade this FO makes. Trading an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and Batting Champion who is the best contact hitter with the lowest K rate in baseball for an average starting pitcher and 2 prospects who are at least 4 years away is another fleece job. At the end of the day, Miami is a better team, the Twins really aren't. They're still the #3 team in the AL Central.

Lopez would've been the best pitcher on the Twins last year and it's not really that close. I think you're undervaluing Lopez. 

[Musk21]

I continuously see the point being made that "Lopez is only a #3, do we really need more #3's?" I for one welcome the added depth to the rotation if it means no more trotting out pitchers like Bundy, Archer, Chi Chi Gonzalez, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, etc.  It's a good thing to have solid starting pitching depth...

No doubt Arraez's bat will be missed, but I think his production can be replaced relatively soon by whomever steps up out of Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin.

[Nashvilletwin]

We don’t really know how this trade will work out. Clearly one team valued a particular skill base more than another and vice versa. Lots of outcomes are certainly possible.

But let me offer a few wagers:

1. Lopez pitches over 150 innings in either ‘23 or ‘24.
2. Salas progresses as a prospect and is a top 100 prospect at the end of ‘23 on anyone’s list?
3. Arraez’s OBP, BA, and BARISP are better than any Twins player in ‘23?
4. Kiriloff hits over 20 HRs and .250 and plays in over 100 games?
5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? 

My side in each: no, no, yes, no, and yes.

We all have our opinions. Mine, albeit quite unpopular and in the vast minority, are that Arraez hasn’t peaked yet, Lopez has, and Salas is falling as a prospect and will never play a single inning of SS (maybe not even 2B) in the majors. It’s actually Miami that actually sold high.

We shall see. 

 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? 

The Twins have the best SS in the American League. You think Seager and Pena will make the team but Correa won't?

[Nashvilletwin]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins have the best SS in the American League. You think Seager and Pena will make the team but Correa won't?

We shall see……

[Chris Spencer]

19 hours ago, Dman said:

I get where PR is coming from.  We all love watching Arraez bat.  The guy most prospect watchers didn't think would make it to MLB let alone win a batting title. The guy who is always humble and hard working.  The guy who can really make a pitcher work but Reusse only focused on one side of the story if you ask me.

Reusse didn't mention Arraez's knee issue's.  Didn't mention keeping him healthy meant keeping him at 1st and DH more and resting him versus lefties when possible.  He didn't mention that the over all average OPS of 1st baseman was essentially the same as Arraez. Didn't have a plan for what to do with Arraez when Lewis, Lee and Jullien come up.  He also is someone who always, always complains about Twins pitching and he didn't address that in his article either.

He didn't mention that Trade values and most outlets thought the value the Twins got back was rated as significant and likely an overpay.  That even the Rookie Miranda had a 750 OPS after having a really tough start to his MLB career so it isn't like Luis's 785 OPS is elite.  His production can be replaced easier than then the Twins can find Pitchers of Lopez's caliber.

I get Arraez is a unique hitter and I have loved, loved everything about him, but I still think this trade made the Twins a stronger team now and in the future.

 

 

18 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I agree, I think by the end of 2023 we will have a good idea who will win this trade. If Lopez goes something 15-7 with a 3.5 ERA and the Twins are in the race into September I will say the Twins win regardless of what Arraez does in Miami.

 

19 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I respectfully disagree. Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants. Lopez has a history of injuries and fell apart down the stretch. Ultimately only time will tell, but after 2023 we will probably have an idea of who won this trade.

How confident are you that Arraez will stay healthy? His knee's are a major concern to me. Not to mention the fact that we don't have enough room for all of the infielders on the roster or that are close in the minors. Good move for the Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

I understand. It’s the word full that I object to. We had only a pair of guys who are #3 or better.
Barring a major comeback from Paddack or Maeda, we were very thin at #3 or better.
The Twins’ greatest need was a quality starter. This trade improved our chances for having a competitive rotation.

Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, maybe Ober, Varland isn't enough number three types?

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We don’t really know how this trade will work out. Clearly one team valued a particular skill base more than another and vice versa. Lots of outcomes are certainly possible.

But let me offer a few wagers:

1. Lopez pitches over 150 innings in either ‘23 or ‘24.
2. Salas progresses as a prospect and is a top 100 prospect at the end of ‘23 on anyone’s list?
3. Arraez’s OBP, BA, and BARISP are better than any Twins player in ‘23?
4. Kiriloff hits over 20 HRs and .250 and plays in over 100 games?
5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? 

My side in each: no, no, yes, no, and yes.

We all have our opinions. Mine, albeit quite unpopular and in the vast minority, are that Arraez hasn’t peaked yet, Lopez has, and Salas is falling as a prospect and will never play a single inning of SS (maybe not even 2B) in the majors. It’s actually Miami that actually sold high.

We shall see. 

 

Have you seen seen Salas play? Do you know anything about him at all?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This gossip on Arraez's knees reminds me of the conversations we had about Bailey Ober's fastball. Or maybe it was Joe Ryan's. So Joe Ryan throws a 90-91mph fastball, but the Twins coaching staff can usually add a couple miles per hour to that, so really it's more like 92-93, but actually his deceptive delivery has the effect of adding a couple more mph, so really it's more like 94-95, and when he really wants to crank it up, he can add another couple mph on top of that. So basically it's more like a 96-97mph fastball than 90-91. 

If this thread goes long enough, we can get Arraez into knee replacement surgery and out of baseball in no time! 

 

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, maybe Ober, Varland isn't enough number three types?

Ober can't stay healthy. Varland is an unproven rookie. Maeda is going to have limited innings.

I'll bet even with Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Varland and Woods-Richardson we still see starts from other pitchers (Winder, Paddack, someone else undetermined) this season.

[Nashvilletwin]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Have you seen seen Salas play? Do you know anything about him at all?

Nope, just what I’ve read. One sight had him #7 on the Marlins’ prospect list and I think MLB slotted him behind Martin on our pro forma list.  A SS prospect initially, but who some now question if he can even stay in the infield. He’s a plus batter who’s overall performance seemed to drop last season. None of that is unusual for a young player. We’ve seen that summary for a lot of prospects.  He may turn out great. I just don’t rate him yet as highly as others. Hope I’m wrong. 

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ober can't stay healthy. Varland is an unproven rookie. Maeda is going to have limited innings.

I'll bet even with Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Varland and Woods-Richardson we still see starts from other pitchers (Winder, Paddack, someone else undetermined) this season.

Which has what to do with whether they are number three starters? I didn't even list Maeda..... We were discussing how many number three starters they had, and someone said they had two....

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Nope, just what I’ve read. One sight had him #7 on the Marlins’ prospect list and I think MLB slotted him behind Martin on our pro forma list.  A SS prospect initially, but who some now question if he can even stay in the infield. He’s a plus batter who’s overall performance seemed to drop last season. None of that is unusual for a young player. We’ve seen that summary for a lot of prospects.  He may turn out great. I just don’t rate him yet as highly as others. Hope I’m wrong. 

Fangraphs has him as a fifty grade SS, third on Minnesota's list. So I don't think we know just yet. 

[jmlease1]

56 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We don’t really know how this trade will work out. Clearly one team valued a particular skill base more than another and vice versa. Lots of outcomes are certainly possible.

But let me offer a few wagers:

1. Lopez pitches over 150 innings in either ‘23 or ‘24.
2. Salas progresses as a prospect and is a top 100 prospect at the end of ‘23 on anyone’s list?
3. Arraez’s OBP, BA, and BARISP are better than any Twins player in ‘23?
4. Kiriloff hits over 20 HRs and .250 and plays in over 100 games?
5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? 

My side in each: no, no, yes, no, and yes.

We all have our opinions. Mine, albeit quite unpopular and in the vast minority, are that Arraez hasn’t peaked yet, Lopez has, and Salas is falling as a prospect and will never play a single inning of SS (maybe not even 2B) in the majors. It’s actually Miami that actually sold high.

We shall see. 

 

1. I'll take the over.
2. I think that's a coin flip? Would hate to bet it either way. 
3. Seems likely?
4. A little unfair; any player hitting 20 HRs in 100 games is a lot.
5. I'll definitely go no here. Miami will be lucky to get 2 all-stars again, making it tougher on Arraez, Correa or Buxton are the most likely all-star picks for the Twins, and Polanco is a better defender at 2B than Arraez.

 

[SkyBlueWaters]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, maybe Ober, Varland isn't enough number three types?

It depends on what level you want your rotation to compete at. If you’re content with a winning percentage below .500, then a number 3 starter whose career WHIP is over a buck thirty, whose career ERA is above 4.30, like Mahle, would be your cup of tea. On a playoff contender, I’d expect him to be a number 5 starter or long relief at best.

Ober and Varland haven’t strung together a number of consistent, solid starts for me to see them as number 3 or better starters on a playoff-caliber team.

Before the Lopez deal, we only had two. And frankly, Ryan is still a bit green, but I think he’s promising. The point is to last deep in the playoffs. The point is to end the string of playoff losses. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

It depends on what level you want your rotation to compete at. If you’re content with a winning percentage below .500, then a number 3 starter whose career WHIP is over a buck thirty, whose career ERA is above 4.30, like Mahle, would be your cup of tea. On a playoff contender, I’d expect him to be a number 5 starter or long relief at best.

Ober and Varland haven’t strung together a number of consistent, solid starts for me to see them as number 3 or better starters on a playoff-caliber team.

Before the Lopez deal, we only had two. And frankly, Ryan is still a bit green, but I think he’s promising. The point is to last deep in the playoffs. The point is to end the string of playoff losses. 

 

 

You might want to check out Mahle compared to all the other pitchers in baseball....I'm not sure why you are looking at the playoffs only, as that is not the definition of a number 3 starter. The point is to make the playoffs first....

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We don’t really know how this trade will work out. Clearly one team valued a particular skill base more than another and vice versa. Lots of outcomes are certainly possible.

But let me offer a few wagers:

1. Lopez pitches over 150 innings in either ‘23 or ‘24.
2. Salas progresses as a prospect and is a top 100 prospect at the end of ‘23 on anyone’s list?
3. Arraez’s OBP, BA, and BARISP are better than any Twins player in ‘23?
4. Kiriloff hits over 20 HRs and .250 and plays in over 100 games?
5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? 

My side in each: no, no, yes, no, and yes.

We all have our opinions. Mine, albeit quite unpopular and in the vast minority, are that Arraez hasn’t peaked yet, Lopez has, and Salas is falling as a prospect and will never play a single inning of SS (maybe not even 2B) in the majors. It’s actually Miami that actually sold high.

We shall see. 

 

Your opinions are not unpopular. There are many posts that wrote about their high regard for Luis Arraez. You also were not in a vast minority because the trade was received with much trepidation by numerous people. 

The Twins and Marlins each felt their teams would be improved with this trade which in turn raised considerable negative reactions from both fan bases. The players understand that baseball is a business and both Lopez and Arraez took a positive approach to their next job location. Until or unless a player is a free agent, the choice of where to work is tenuous at best. I wish both players the best and feel the trade was an honest move to improve each team. 

Vegas has odds for each of your wagers if you really want to put some money in support of your distaste for the trade. It is entertainment, both baseball and gambling. I will be just enjoying the baseball and will also tune in to a number of Miami games to watch Luis Arraez continue to do his thing.

 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

1. I'll take the over.
2. I think that's a coin flip? Would hate to bet it either way. 
3. Seems likely?
4. A little unfair; any player hitting 20 HRs in 100 games is a lot.
5. I'll definitely go no here. Miami will be lucky to get 2 all-stars again, making it tougher on Arraez, Correa or Buxton are the most likely all-star picks for the Twins, and Polanco is a better defender at 2B than Arraez.

 

Let’s check in at the end of the year.  I hope I’m wrong on all of them (except I hope Arraez makes the NL all star team). 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ober can't stay healthy. Varland is an unproven rookie. Maeda is going to have limited innings.

I'll bet even with Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Varland and Woods-Richardson we still see starts from other pitchers (Winder, Paddack, someone else undetermined) this season.

Long as we dont see multiple starts from Chi Chi Gonzales level hacks I'm good.

[Malachi]

On 1/22/2023 at 3:31 PM, rwilfong86 said:

He's 19 years old in High A right now, I'll be shocked if he is on a Major League roster before 2025. Subscribe to Patreon and listen to the "Gleeman and the Geek" podcast episode from Friday, they go over the possible ETA of the prospects from this trade making the majors. Best $1 you will spend all week.

That podcast is the BEST

[USAFChief]

On 1/22/2023 at 2:15 PM, Trov said:

The FO has made it clear, if they cannot sign a player they will trade them to get some value out of them.  Berrios was in the same situation.  Fans may prefer us to just pony up more cash, but I for one is a fan of the moves.  

I don't think cash or "ability to sign" had much to do with this trade. Lopez comes with 2 years of team control. Arraez has 3.

[h2oface]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins have the best SS in the American League. You think Seager and Pena will make the team but Correa won't?

Yes. Very possibly. Especially if Correa hits the first half of the season like he did in 2022, and his defense continues to degrade from 2021 as it did last year. Or he is injured. He didn't make the team last year. He has made it twice - in 2017 and 2021.

And there is also Bobby Witt, Jr., Bo Bichette, Wander Franco, Tim Anderson...... to name a few, that could be the picks depending on the first couple of months, as flawed as the all-star selections are. Pena will get a lot of carry over mileage from his post season play last year.

Here is what one fantasy rating thinks, which, like my opinion, doesn't really mean anything, necessarily, either.

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/rankings/al-only-ss.php