Rumor: Arraez turned down a Twins offer before last year

[rwilfong86]

3 minutes ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

In nine months' time, toward the end of the season, we'll know if the gamble this deal represents is paying off in the short-term. Right now, I think it was worth the risk.

I agree, I think by the end of 2023 we will have a good idea who will win this trade. If Lopez goes something 15-7 with a 3.5 ERA and the Twins are in the race into September I will say the Twins win regardless of what Arraez does in Miami.

[wsnydes]

I'm going to preface this by saying that I like Arraez and really enjoy watching him hit.  I still value a guy that is a great on base guy.

But let's be real. He's not an elite player.  He's not a great defensive player and he doesn't have a position.  His power is limited.  The lack of a shift won't impact him at all since, as @chpettit19mentioned, he wasn't getting shifted on in the first place.  This is 2023, the three true outcomes rules the game for better or worse.  The Twins turned that type of player around and acquired a reliable #2/3 rotation guy capable of 180 innings a year, as @se7799points out, plus a borderline top 100 SS prospect and a lottery ticket.  A team can't have too many SS's.  They're always valuable as a player or trade bait.  To say that the Twins got fleeced in this deal is missing the big picture.  As much as it might suck as a fan, it was a very good baseball move.

Luis turning down a contract offer seems like par for the course of a guy that is after a long term deal.  That's what happens in a negotiation.  Good for him.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I respectfully disagree. Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants. Lopez has a history of injuries and fell apart down the stretch. Ultimately only time will tell, but after 2023 we will probably have an idea of who won this trade.

I think Arraez benefits not at all from the cessation of the shift. He has always sprayed the ball and will continue to do so. Secondly, if you want to talk about downturns in the second half of the season, Arraez fits that description as well. 

Both Arraez and Lopez had more major league work last year in their careers. They both might have been fatigued either mentally or physically in the last segments of the season.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

Download Patreon and listen to the "Gleeman and the Geek" podcast episode from Friday. It will be the best $1 you spend all week. The Twins were the 3rd best team in the division before the trade, and are still the 3rd place team in the division after the trade. The 2 better teams in the division, have rotations with #1 and #2 starters. Could Lopez be a #1 or #2 starter? Or Joe Ryan or Sonny Gray? It is possible but highly improbable. On a contending team, the best of the Twins starters would be #3 or lower. The Marlins were probably the worst team in the NL East and are now the second worse team in the division lol which for their fans it's worth celebrating.

Comparing to the White Sox and Guardians is interesting. Both of them have guys with far better chances to be #1s, no doubt about it. But during the regular season (to me, if you're talking "3rd best team in the division" you're talking regular season) I'd argue the Twins ability to role out a deeper rotation than either squad puts them in a good spot to compete. 

If you're a believer in fWAR you should be relatively happy with the Twins regular season rotation (playoffs is a different argument). Last year the top 5 guys for the White Sox (Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Clevinger, Kopech) totaled 9.5 fWAR between them (average 1.9), and made 130 starts (average 26). The Guardians top 5 (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Plesac) totaled 12.9 fWAR between them (average 2.58), and made 137 starts (average 27.4). The Twins top 5 guys (Lopez, Gray, Maeda (stats from 2021), Ryan, Mahle) had a total of 11 fWAR (average 2.2) and made 127 starts (average 25.4).

Top 15 guys in order of fWAR from last year (or Maeda's 2021 when he only made 21 starts and people thought he was having a down year before he was hurt):
Bieber- 4.9 in 31 starts
Cease- 4.4 in 32 starts
McKenzie- 3.6 in 30 starts
Lopez- 2.8 in 32 starts
Gray- 2.4 in 24 starts
Quantrill- 2.2 in 32 starts
Ryan- 2.1 in 27 starts
Mahle- 2.1 in 23 starts
Lynn- 1.9 in 21 starts
Giolito- 1.8 in 30 starts
Maeda- 1.6 in 21 starts (sub in Ober at 1.4 in only 11 starts if you want)
Civale- 1.3 in 20 starts
Kopech- 1 in 25 starts
Plesac- .9 in 24 starts
Clevinger- .4 in 22 starts

I won't lie, some of those numbers surprised me. I think part of the struggle is that we watch/follow the Twins constantly while we only follow those other teams on the periphery.

The Guardians get a ton of credit for their pitching, but the back end of their rotation is not great. Plesac and Civale are worse than any Twins starter, and Quantrill is right in the same category as the main Twins guys. Their advantage is Bieber and McKenzie, but that's a bigger advantage in the playoffs than the regular season.

The White Sox are banking on Kopech figuring it out and Clevinger getting back to being even half of what he was in Cleveland back in the day. Cease is likely better than anyone the Twins can throw out there, but Lynn isn't getting younger, and Giolito is far from a sure thing. They'd both be right in the mix with what the Twins are doing.

For 162 games it sure looks like the Twins have the ability to run out a deeper rotation than either of these teams (unless Cleveland brings up another superstar prospect which is always a possibility). I wouldn't say the Twins pitching is any sort of distant 3rd here, and has a very real chance of being better than the White Sox and challenging the Guardians for overall performance.

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Perpetual Minnesota sports critic Patrick Reusse disapproves of trading Arraez, imagine that. That right there is enough for me to think the team made the right move.... 

Didn't remember the contract offer last off-season, but found the MLBTR link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/twins-luis-arraez-avoid-arbitration.html

I respect Reusse's opinion more than most on this board. He's seen more good and bad baseball than almost all of us and had access to baseball guys for decades. 

Regarding contract negotiations, I suppose it isn't the dollars, it is the difficulty and perhaps resentment built up in what was the first two of as many as four seasons of arbitration. I don't know if the team is right in bailing on first Berrios and now Arraez, but they would know how contentious the contract negotiations have been.

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Comparing to the White Sox and Guardians is interesting. Both of them have guys with far better chances to be #1s, no doubt about it. But during the regular season (to me, if you're talking "3rd best team in the division" you're talking regular season) I'd argue the Twins ability to role out a deeper rotation than either squad puts them in a good spot to compete. 

If you're a believer in fWAR you should be relatively happy with the Twins regular season rotation (playoffs is a different argument). Last year the top 5 guys for the White Sox (Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Clevinger, Kopech) totaled 9.5 fWAR between them (average 1.9), and made 130 starts (average 26). The Guardians top 5 (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Plesac) totaled 12.9 fWAR between them (average 2.58), and made 137 starts (average 27.4). The Twins top 5 guys (Lopez, Gray, Maeda (stats from 2021), Ryan, Mahle) had a total of 11 fWAR (average 2.2) and made 127 starts (average 25.4).

Top 15 guys in order of fWAR from last year (or Maeda's 2021 when he only made 21 starts and people thought he was having a down year before he was hurt):
Bieber- 4.9 in 31 starts
Cease- 4.4 in 32 starts
McKenzie- 3.6 in 30 starts
Lopez- 2.8 in 32 starts
Gray- 2.4 in 24 starts
Quantrill- 2.2 in 32 starts
Ryan- 2.1 in 27 starts
Mahle- 2.1 in 23 starts
Lynn- 1.9 in 21 starts
Giolito- 1.8 in 30 starts
Maeda- 1.6 in 21 starts (sub in Ober at 1.4 in only 11 starts if you want)
Civale- 1.3 in 20 starts
Kopech- 1 in 25 starts
Plesac- .9 in 24 starts
Clevinger- .4 in 22 starts

I won't lie, some of those numbers surprised me. I think part of the struggle is that we watch/follow the Twins constantly while we only follow those other teams on the periphery.

The Guardians get a ton of credit for their pitching, but the back end of their rotation is not great. Plesac and Civale are worse than any Twins starter, and Quantrill is right in the same category as the main Twins guys. Their advantage is Bieber and McKenzie, but that's a bigger advantage in the playoffs than the regular season.

The White Sox are banking on Kopech figuring it out and Clevinger getting back to being even half of what he was in Cleveland back in the day. Cease is likely better than anyone the Twins can throw out there, but Lynn isn't getting younger, and Giolito is far from a sure thing. They'd both be right in the mix with what the Twins are doing.

For 162 games it sure looks like the Twins have the ability to run out a deeper rotation than either of these teams (unless Cleveland brings up another superstar prospect which is always a possibility). I wouldn't say the Twins pitching is any sort of distant 3rd here, and has a very real chance of being better than the White Sox and challenging the Guardians for overall performance.

For the regular season, it is great to have a guy start start every time where it is a better than 50-50 chance you'll see a high-quality start. I think the Twins have a bunch of guys in that category although there have been a lot of issues with injuries. 

With a number of the Twins pitchers, they are young enough to develop into more than mid-rotation starters. I don't think that a slot is guaranteed for each starter.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

For the regular season, it is great to have a guy start start every time where it is a better than 50-50 chance you'll see a high-quality start. I think the Twins have a bunch of guys in that category although there have been a lot of issues with injuries. 

With a number of the Twins pitchers, they are young enough to develop into more than mid-rotation starters. I don't think that a slot is guaranteed for each starter.

If they can get about 25 starts a piece out of their top 5 guys I think they have a real shot at the division. That would leave about 40 starts to be covered by the young guys. One of which is probably Ober since it doesn't sound like he'll start the season in the rotation as of now. If he gives you 20 starts and you're looking at about 145 starts out of Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober I think they win the division.

[tony&rodney]

Luis Arraez is a really good hitter. I believe he will improve in small ways and would be a tough out batting third in the Marlins lineup. I can see Arraez winning more batting titles.

My constant plea was for the Twins to maneuver whatever pieces they could manage to wrestle Edward Cabrera and even (long shot) Jesus Luzardo away from the Marlins. I don't think the Marlins wanted to take that risk. The Twins pivoted and did well to hold strong for the two additional prospects plus Lopez. Miami was not going to listen on anyone other than Arraez. It was a good trade for both teams.

Pablo Lopez is a really good pitcher, a true #2 on a playoff team. Like all pitchers the specter of injury will always hover. The Twins can use Sonny Gray out of the gate followed by Lopez. Most importantly, the Twins will put a competitive starting pitcher on the field in every game. This will pay off.

The Twins have some good bats ready for their opportunity and the success of the team will depend on positive contributions from a couple of Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Larnach. These guys are ready in my opinion. Their time has come to show off their skills. The improvement of the starting staff takes some pressure off of the bats and despite how excellent Arraez was for the Twins, the guys up next are going to cover his loss even if it is in a different manner.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm not a Reusse fan either, I'm not surprised that Arraez thought he was worth more than the Twins thought because he had Boras as an agent. And maybe the difference of opinion may have had something to do with him being traded.

I don't trust Reusse's evaluations, by most ratings Reuse has overrated Arraez & underrated Lopez. and way underrated this trade. For getting this return for Arraez, this FO was able to convince MIA of what they thought of Arraez's worth, which was immense.

All of us will miss Arraez, but this trade has filled a great need at front-line SP from a surplus of our 1B/ DH position. This trade is by far has been this FO best trade.

How about N. Cruz trade for J. Ryan?

[darin617]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm not a Reusse fan either, I'm not surprised that Arraez thought he was worth more than the Twins thought because he had Boras as an agent. And maybe the difference of opinion may have had something to do with him being traded.

I don't trust Reusse's evaluations, by most ratings Reuse has overrated Arraez & underrated Lopez. and way underrated this trade. For getting this return for Arraez, this FO was able to convince MIA of what they thought of Arraez's worth, which was immense.

All of us will miss Arraez, but this trade has filled a great need at front-line SP from a surplus of our 1B/ DH position. This trade is by far has been this FO best trade.

Boras is not his agent. Baseball reference has it lasted as  Agents: MVP Sports Group

[darin617]

3 hours ago, Roaddog said:

I think you're overrating Arraez and underrating Lopez and others

Exactly, get hitter no doubt about that. No speed, defensive liability and Miami is going to play him at 2b, and no power. 

I'm sure they offered a pretty low long term deal.

[darin617]

3 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I respectfully disagree. Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants. Lopez has a history of injuries and fell apart down the stretch. Ultimately only time will tell, but after 2023 we will probably have an idea of who won this trade.

Arraez wasn't shifted much at all either. So that comment is not correct.

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Luis Arraez is a really good hitter. I believe he will improve in small ways and would be a tough out batting third in the Marlins lineup. I can see Arraez winning more batting titles.

My constant plea was for the Twins to maneuver whatever pieces they could manage to wrestle Edward Cabrera and even (long shot) Jesus Luzardo away from the Marlins. I don't think the Marlins wanted to take that risk. The Twins pivoted and did well to hold strong for the two additional prospects plus Lopez. Miami was not going to listen on anyone other than Arraez. It was a good trade for both teams.

Pablo Lopez is a really good pitcher, a true #2 on a playoff team. Like all pitchers the specter of injury will always hover. The Twins can use Sonny Gray out of the gate followed by Lopez. Most importantly, the Twins will put a competitive starting pitcher on the field in every game. This will pay off.

The Twins have some good bats ready for their opportunity and the success of the team will depend on positive contributions from a couple of Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Larnach. These guys are ready in my opinion. Their time has come to show off their skills. The improvement of the starting staff takes some pressure off of the bats and despite how excellent Arraez was for the Twins, the guys up next are going to cover his loss even if it is in a different manner.

Agreed - we’ll be OK. The young guys will have success taking up Arraez slack. At least two of them will be productive!

Marlins were locked into Arraez!

The thing that bothered me was all the talk about Arraez not being durable enough to play - no defense - not a viable long term piece - shoes easily filled with young bat in the system.

Kirilof had career saving surgery on his wrist & we have no idea what he’ll do for the Club.

Arraez is a .314 hitter over 4 seasons - 10 other guys in MLB hit over .300 in 2022. To think one or more of our farm system guys are going to be that kind of hitter is being awfully optimistic! I’m upbeat about some of our talent but can’t assume .300 plus hitter is just automatically going to fall into our laps.

At a .366 BA with RISP in 2022 I felt he deserves more respect than, “……we can’t worry about Arraez, we have 3-4 guys almost ready………”.         .”………plus, he has bad knees”. this crap as a rationalization when we aren’t sure if Kirilof will ever be able to generate enough bat speed to hit .150 going forward.

[rwilfong86]

13 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Arraez wasn't shifted much at all either. So that comment is not correct.

He was shifted 2% of his plate appearances, with his spray chart I'm surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right side. Probably good that now they can't shift him due to the rule change.

[rwilfong86]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agreed - we’ll be OK. The young guys will have success taking up Arraez slack. At least two of them will be productive!

Marlins were locked into Arraez!

The thing that bothered me was all the talk about Arraez not being durable enough to play - no defense - not a viable long term piece - shoes easily filled with young bat in the system.

Kirilof had career saving surgery on his wrist & we have no idea what he’ll do for the Club.

Arraez is a .314 hitter over 4 seasons - 10 other guys in MLB hit over .300 in 2022. To think one or more of our farm system guys are going to be that kind of hitter is being awfully optimistic! I’m upbeat about some of our talent but can’t assume .300 plus hitter is just automatically going to fall into our laps.

At a .366 BA with RISP in 2022 I felt he deserves more respect than, “……we can’t worry about Arraez, we have 3-4 guys almost ready………”.         .”………plus, he has bad knees”. this crap as a rationalization when we aren’t sure if Kirilof will ever be able to generate enough bat speed to hit .150 going forward.

I agree with you, Arraez has been serviceable wherever he has played defensively and was a Gold Glove finalist after not playing 1st since he was a teenager in the Dominican League. 

[rwilfong86]

30 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Exactly, get hitter no doubt about that. No speed, defensive liability and Miami is going to play him at 2b, and no power. 

I'm sure they offered a pretty low long term deal.

His defense is actually not terrible, for a player who has played multiple positions. He didn't commit a single error at 1st last season and was a Gold Glove finalist. I find the defensive liability argument to be weak.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

He was shifted 2% of his plate appearances, with his spray chart I'm surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right side. Probably good that now they can't shift him due to the rule change.

Wait, you're surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right based on that spray chart? I mean that thing is about as shift proof as you can get. Last year he pulled the ball (so to the right) 28.4% of the time (27.1% for his career), hit it up the middle 41.2% of the time (40.4% for his career), and went oppo (so to the left) 30.4% of the time (32.5% for his career). Why would teams shift him ever, let alone to the right?

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I respectfully disagree. Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants.

I respectfully disagree. Teams didn't shift Arraez so as a batter he'll be facing the same fielding positioning in 2023 that he did in 2022. If anything the new anti-shift rule will probably work against him because range will be significantly more important for infielders, especially second basemen, and that's one of his shortcomings.

[wsnydes]

25 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

He was shifted 2% of his plate appearances, with his spray chart I'm surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right side. Probably good that now they can't shift him due to the rule change.

You expect a real impact of the shift ban on a guy that was shifted a whole 2% of his PAs?  That means he was shifted on in 12 PAs.  There's no meaningful impact to be had there.  And I don't know why you'd think he'd get shifted more based on that spray chart.  That's the definition of using all fields.

[rwilfong86]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wait, you're surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right based on that spray chart? I mean that thing is about as shift proof as you can get. Last year he pulled the ball (so to the right) 28.4% of the time (27.1% for his career), hit it up the middle 41.2% of the time (40.4% for his career), and went oppo (so to the left) 30.4% of the time (32.5% for his career). Why would teams shift him ever, let alone to the right?

Which side of the field were the majority of the ground balls hit last season?

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Which side of the field were the majority of the ground balls hit last season?

Respectfully, you're wrong here. For 1 thing, as a singles hitter Arraez wouldn't try to beat the shift by hitting over it, he'd just lay down a bunt or slap the ball to left since he's most likely to get a single anyway. You wouldn't be taking anything away from him by shifting him. You'd actually be making his life easier. 

For a 2nd thing, there were 19 of 30 teams who shifted left handed hitters over 50% of the time. And only 2 that didn't shift them at least 40% of the time. You really think they shifted him 2% of the time on accident?

[wsnydes]

9 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Which side of the field were the majority of the ground balls hit last season?

Not a demonstrably large enough difference that would tell me that he's incapable of simply slapping the ball through a hole on the left side created by the shift.  He's not a power threat, so he's going to find the hole.  That's his skill set.

And his line drive hits look to favor the left side.  Why would you make his life easier by creating holes for him to ground it through instead of forcing him to line it to LF?

[mnfireman]

5 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

His defense is actually not terrible, for a player who has played multiple positions. He didn't commit a single error at 1st last season and was a Gold Glove finalist. I find the defensive liability argument to be weak.

Arraez's play at 1B is the perfect example of the metrics or stats making a player out to be better than he was. I saw too many times where he went after a ball to his right that he should not have and too many times where he did not leave the base to save a bad throw, resulting in extra bases for the runner. To me, the eye test wins out over the metrics concerning his defensive play at 1B, and he did not pass.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Not only that, but by adding Salas, it's another piece we can use in a trade. It was a good move. Lopez wasn't the pitcher I'd have gone after, as I've said, but, I think the Twins made a good value trade.

While I am still suffering from ADS (Arraez departure sadness) and I am praying for a replacement in the offense. 

What you said is often over looked by others and can't be denied.

You are 100% correct. We don't have to wait 4 years for Salas to pay major league dividends.

He isn't future value... He is value right now. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Arraez's play at 1B is the perfect example of the metrics or stats making a player out to be better than he was. I saw too many times where he went after a ball to his right that he should not have and too many times where he did not leave the base to save a bad throw, resulting in extra bases for the runner. To me, the eye test wins out over the metrics concerning his defensive play at 1B, and he did not pass.

Did you watch every other game so you could compare him to all the other first basement?

[darin617]

51 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

His defense is actually not terrible, for a player who has played multiple positions. He didn't commit a single error at 1st last season and was a Gold Glove finalist. I find the defensive liability argument to be weak.

I don't want a short guy playing first. It limits the range and many other things. Just think of that bang bang play when he can't stretch as far for starters. He would be fine at 2b if his knees could handle it.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Did you watch every other game so you could compare him to all the other first basement?

No I didn't.  But I did play 1B for many years and I can tell a good one from a bad one.  Arraez was far closer to the bad end of the spectrum than he was to the good end.

I was listening to three former GM's discussing the trade.  One of the better comments was that a team doesn't make a trade hoping to "win" the trade.  They make a trade to make their team better.  The second interesting comment was that both the Marlins and the Twins should be very pleased because the each got what the felt they needed and only lost players that were from a position of strength.  (P.S. They also said that the extra two players that the Twins received were a complete shock to them and that the Twins' front office should be congratulated.)

[SkyBlueWaters]

13 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I would say their rotation is full of #3 starters at best….

I understand. It’s the word full that I object to. We had only a pair of guys who are #3 or better.
Barring a major comeback from Paddack or Maeda, we were very thin at #3 or better.
The Twins’ greatest need was a quality starter. This trade improved our chances for having a competitive rotation.

[Brad.dahlen]

I think it is pretty clear that this front office did not value him as highly as others. Probably because of his knees and overall health. This front office really seems to value position flexibility, and Luis Arraez was eventually going to become a full time DH. And a poor one at that. 

[Squirrel]

51 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I think it is pretty clear that this front office did not value him as highly as others. Probably because of his knees and overall health. This front office really seems to value position flexibility, and Luis Arraez was eventually going to become a full time DH. And a poor one at that. 

That’s just not true. One could say they valued him more than others because he’s the one who got the return they wanted and cleared space for Kirilloff, Lee, Julien and/or Lewis. This trade was all about value on many levels, not about lack of it. This game is played by human beings, and we all are emotional about our favorites and perceptions of good. FOs have to be more objective than that and view their players not just as human beings but as assets or no one would get traded ever. It’s probably the hard part of the job, especially with one as well liked as Arraez. I hate when players get traded away or non tendered. I still feel pangs for Eduardo and Eddie. But in the end, those were all the right decisions to make, imo, including this trade of Arraez.