What can still make a difference?

[August J Gloop]

The offseason has played out pretty good all things considered. The Twins sit at a projected 2.3 WAR behind CLE and 9 behind the Yankees for the top spot on the projection list. Some of that is just pessimistic projecting. Buxton will likely be more than 3, Kiriloff more than 1.3. Kenta won't stay in the rotation if he's heading to just 1.5. But for argument's sake let's say that the 42.8 is basically correct. What can realistically still be done? While I'm sure it's tempting to rehash all the free agents not signed, that ship has sailed. Let's talk what still can be. (Also WAR has to be our tool cuz otherwise what standard measure could we use? All of our eye tests are different.)

Ground rules. You can't just cut someone and make up a new WAR value for a prospect replacement (no matter how good their numbers are in MiLB). We will cap any prospect WAR value at the rookie rates from last year. Jose Miranda was tops on the team with one. Only 11 in MLB posted more than 2. So as much as I believe in Lewis, Julien, Martin. We can't just plug them in and say Boom! 3 win seasons! So we have to cap them in our exercise at 1,5 which is more or less where Jose would have been if he'd played 150.

Also, no getting studs for junk. Make a trade, make it real. BTV is kinda bogus but it will help. We can't trade Emilio and Brian Duensing (and prospects) for Julio Rodriguez. 

Here are the areas I think have room for improvement: DH, Bully and Rotation. They have a payroll of around 140 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900)

It's fair to assume they can still add, but the upper limit is likely lower than we might like. That being said, they've got to have at least 25 to play with still. 

Here are my ideas. 

1- Sign Fulmer, Matt Moore and Zach Britton for around a total of 15. Britton is a bit of a wild card but if he's healthy it could work out. We've had some good luck with his agent recently in structuring a good health dependent contract. That trio could conservatively net around 2.5 wins between them, and all for just money. (I could hear arguments for other LHP, but my point is there are 2.5 wins in the pen still in free agency). We wouldn't be bumping anyone projected to provide +WAR with the signs, either. So just value.  Also this is a low point. All three of those dudes have put up 2.5 on their own from the pen over their careers. [45.3]

2 - Crack open that prospect piggy bank and get something done with the Rockies. They appeared excited to trade Brendan Rogers to the fish earlier. I think that means with the right combination of pitching and player prospects the Twins could get German Marquez and Rogers. They could offer Bailey Ober (only if Rogers included) in this deal as Marquez is signed reasonably for this year and a club option for the next.  Rogers would still require a better prospect push, but the Arraez injection gave us the ability to flip Salas or to use Martin if his stock is still high enough. Now what does this actually do? It puts another quality starter in the rotation and allows for a 6 man setup to keep all the recovering dudes in the game for an extra inning. That also releases some of the pressure on the bully to add much more WAR (even if there is talent in the system to do it.) It also pairs C4 with a top fielding DP partner who can hit a little bit. Rather than the pretty OK fielding good hitter in Polo. What about Polo? Oh yeah, he's the Primary DH, but he rotates in to 2nd and 3rd along with Farmer to keep all legs fresh. That keeps his primary skill (hitting) in the lineup a lot while combatting his primary deficit (sore legs). These two players are projected to be worth 5 wins between them in Coors. Playing at Target will flip that a little, but while Rogers will come down, Marquez will go up. Almost there. And we didn't even add much salary. About 11 Mil all told. Right at our budget. [49.6]

3 - The last move. We're close to Max budget. We still need 2.9 wins to catch the Yankees. We've burned through almost all the prospect capital we're comfortable with. All the spots on the field are currently taken by MLB contracts. That's right. We're going to trade Max Kepler. To get where we need to go, the net result has to be almost 4 wins, since Max was projected to be worth 1.9 on his own. Well, so much of Max's Value is in him playing Right Field so well. Lucky for the Twins they signed his replacement already. Gallo is actually more valuable in right than left since his major plus is in his arm and range is good enough. Gallo projects to be a better value in right by .5 more win. That allows us Nick Gordon in Left where he can provide +value on both sides of the ball. he put up 1.5 last year in part time play so we'll figure he can do that again over a full year. Max's value is full on replaced with current staff. So who are we trading him for? Who knows. But a good reliever. Maybe Jalen Beeks in Tampa or Dylan Floro in Miami. Add .75 more wins to the pen over such edge guys as Coulombe or Megill. But the real value would be in freeing the roster spot for the rookie batter who would spot start and get hot to the tune of 1.5 wins. My gut says it's Julien in a super utility role. [52.1]

OK I lied. They probably can't catch the Yankees in projected WAR, but they can get right up there with reasonable moves. 

Although I will say that Winder for Taylor thing is a good one they should do, too. He would be miles better than Celly in that role.           

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would pursue one, maybe two, above average relief arms. I think the most impact will be found there as you remove someone below replacement level and insert a 1-ish win player. Do that twice and it could be worth up to three wins overall.

And the Twins will *absolutely* field below replacement level relievers this season if they don’t add depth. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Agreed, we need BP help at this point.  They do need to watch the 40-man though so that they do not have to release someone of value when adding.  I like Chafin and Hand as BP options.

[Doctor Gast]

I believe we'll exceed those estimated projections (although I don't have much hope in Gallo). We still could find some good BP arms in FA, where we can add to our potential. Maybe in June we can trade both Gallo & Kepler for a pretty good RH OF bat.

[sun]

On 1/22/2023 at 1:32 PM, August J Gloop said:

1- Sign Fulmer....

 

 

Why haven't the Twins signed Fulmer yet? If there's more than one suitor then the Twins may do something else unexpectedly. It was said that the Cubs were interested in him back in December. 

[CRF]

Bullpen