Which Twins Pitchers Could Benefit From a "Matt Wisler Special"

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins were able to maximize Matt Wisler in 2020 by tinkering with his pitch repertoire. Could they give one of their current pitchers that same treatment this season?

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Ask any Twins fan what area of the current roster scares them the most, and the answer will surely be either the top of the starting rotation or in the bullpen. Despite a stronger group of starter candidates and some rosy projections for the relief staff, the fanbase isn’t going to believe it until they see it. 

A similar mindset was apparent heading into the 2020 season, and the Twins ended up having one of the best relief corps in the game. They ranked third in baseball with a combined 3.6 fWAR, sixth with a 3.62 ERA, and second with a stellar 77% strand rate. 

A surprising leader in this group was off-season waiver claim Matt Wisler, who finished the year with a glowing 1.07 ERA and 32.7% strikeout rate. 

He was seen as a relative project coming into camp that year, but the Twins’ decision makers saw something in him that gave them hope that he could turn into a weapon out of the bullpen, or someone that could at the very least provide value given their minimum salary. They didn’t know that their project would transform into a buzz saw by drastically changing his pitch repertoire. He completely ditched his seldom-used curveball and changeup  and started throwing his slider over 80% of the time and mixed in a very occasional fastball. 

Flash forward to present day, and fans will probably want absolutely nothing to do with a project. As good as Wisler was, the results of the projects that followed were either disastrous or disappointing, to say the least.

But could any of the current members in the Twins’ bullpen benefit from a change similar to Wisler’s in 2020?

Danny Coulombe 
A minor-league deal signee, Coulombe represents an ideal candidate to tweak and tinker with if the Twins are looking for another project. Since coming to Minnesota in 2020, he’s actually been quite effective when healthy, based on his combined 2.92 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 across 49 innings pitched. For a low-leverage option out of the bullpen, you could certainly do much worse. 

But what happens if his strikeout rate improves with a change in pitch repertoire? That’s when things get interesting, as they did for Wisler. 

Coulombe has experimented with a slew of different pitches over his career, with his fastball, slider and curveball being constant throughout. His sinker and cutter, however, have seen mixed results. 

Notably, his fastball velocity went up last year (averaged 91.8 MPH compared to 90.6 MPH in 2021), and he used his curveball and slider significantly less (66.6% in 2022, 43.5% in 2021). He did this in an effort to reintroduce his changeup, which he used 19.6% of the time. He saw great surface results when healthy, with a sterling 1.46 ERA and an 81.3% strand rate in his 12 innings pitched. His slider, while used less-often in 2022, was still an above-average offering, and was his best pitch in 2021 (1.6 runs above average). It should remain in his mix, and he should eliminate his curveball. 

If Coulombe can stay healthy in 2023, continue to add/maintain good velocity on his fastball and up his usage of his slider, he could open some eyes. Maybe his rediscovered changeup can still play a factor against right-handed hitters and his slider is his weapon of choice against lefties. Either way, a more-refined balance in his repertoire could keep him effective as long as he remains healthy. 

Trevor Megill
The tall right-hander debuted with the Twins in May and impressed with his blazing fastball right away. By the end of the season, Megill found himself in the 97th percentile for fastball velocity, 92nd percentile in fastball spin rate and the 85th percentile for curveball spin rate. These are enticing numbers under the hood, but he seemed to get a bad reputation after losing some gas starting in August. 

At one point, he gave up at least one earned run in seven of eight appearances, and lost the trust of frustrated Twins fans. While many were ready to see him removed from the roster, it would be foolish to give up on such an electric arm after struggling in their sophomore season. 

His fastball plays at the big league level. That much is certain. Can he get one of his breaking balls to be a true complementary offering?

His curveball has the aforementioned spin rate that surely encouraged him to throw it 30.9% of the time in 2022. He only allowed two extra base hits on the yacker, but the average exit velocity on it was 94.1 MPH. Can Megill find a way to get better results on this pitch, or should he start to emphasize his slider more? 

The slide piece got knocked around a lot more in 2022 (.536 slugging percentage against), but it is by far his best offering in terms of getting swinging strikes (36.5% in 2022). If he can continue to get whiffs on this pitch while upping its usage, it could lead to more strikeouts at the risk of harder contact. For a project-type pitcher in lower-leverage (or even minor league) opportunities, this is a risk worth taking.   

Kenta Maeda   
It appears that the 2020 American League  Cy Young  award runner-up will get every opportunity to stick in the starting rotation after missing all of last season. That’s fine for the time being, but it would not be surprising to see him in the bullpen at some point in 2023.  Tommy John  surgery recovery can be unpredictable, especially for pitchers on the wrong side of 30. 

When push comes to shove, Maeda didn’t pitch any MLB innings last year, and only had 106 under his belt before succumbing to surgery in 2021. There’s no way to reasonably expect him to be a reliable starting pitcher for 30 starts this year. 

If he approaches an innings limit and the team decides to try him in the bullpen, it will be a facet of the game that Maeda is familiar with. Even if it isn’t his preference, he could be a welcome addition among the relief corps if he optimizes his repertoire like he has done in the past. 

In 2019, King Kenta pitched 17 innings out of the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen down the stretch and had terrific results. He had a 3.24 ERA in relief, with a 11.9 K/9 and just 2.2 BB/9, and he left about 80% of baserunners stranded. So what happened when he made that move?

In the month of September, his slider usage rose to 43.9% and he essentially dropped his curveball and sinker. He mainly used that slider, his 4-seam fastball and his splitter. Opponents hit a meager .164/.220/.382 against him that month. His simplified game plan paid off immensely, even if it was just temporary.

If Maeda can rediscover that balance in his repertoire, and adjust it even further in the likelihood that his fastball loses velocity post-surgery, those results would play in a major way.

 

But what do you think? Should the club try tinkering with these pitchers? Are there any other arms that come to mind?

 

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[mikelink45]

We can only hope - I was looking for Pagan on your list since they are set on keeping him, can they turn him into a good RP?

[Doctor Gast]

Wisler was new to the Twins so the Twins were able to capitalize on the big change, off the bat. Yet  Coulombe, Megill & Maeda has been in the system for a while. If there'd be any big change in repertoire  IMO it'd have happened by now. Yet in baseball there's constant adjusting some change is inevitable.

Maeda has never been a big arm to rake up innings or go long regularly in games. So IMO Maeda is bettered served in the BP, maybe eventually make it in the rotation later in the season.

[Mike h]

I agree with Doctor Gast that Maeda belongs in the BP to start the season.  Coming back from TJ surgery, giving him too much too soon could hurt rather than help his recovery. Build him up slowly. Set him up for success.

But as for candidates for having pitches tweaked,  that's a hard question for a casual fan because I think we need to see a lot of data to discover trends. Generally though, I'd say EVERY pitcher should should have a thorough end-of-year review where all those numbers are analyzed.

Let's not underestimate the value of having a catcher who calls a good game. And let's say we have a two-pitch pitcher- it's important that he moves the ball around. Up, down, in, out. Avoiding the middle. Not afraid to throw inside.  Well, every pitcher needs to do this, but especially the two-pitch guys.

[Fatbat]

Pagan needs a tweek or two. Maybe 10. Maybe BP Lopez since he fell off after his trade to the twins. 

[Blyleven2011]

Maeda to bullpen to limit his pitching  in long relief is a no Brainer coming off TJ surgery and if that isn't working  then short relief ....

Pagan ( reborn ron davis ) also should have been added to this list , I heard he was tweeking his pitching towards the end of last season and the twins staff was impressed  with the results in mop up duty   , time will tell ...

Megill had stretches of good and bad , so figure out the good and turn him loose ...

Not much confidence in coaching pitchers since the wisler addition ...

[IndianaTwin]

I get the suggestions about moving Maeda to the pen for innings management purposes, but the thing of it is that innings can be more predictable as a starter, since you know which days you're going to be used and can schedule the throw days in between.

I concur that it's difficult to expect 30 starts from Maeda, but I think it's easier to manage his workload by going with 20 or so starts and then shifting to the bullpen as needed, particularly if that aligns with Paddack's return or guys like Winder, Woods Richardson or Varland kicking the door in in St. Paul. It's really hard to gradually increase the workload from being a reliever to a starter in a systematic way while trying to win games. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I get the suggestions about moving Maeda to the pen for innings management purposes, but the thing of it is that innings can be more predictable as a starter, since you know which days you're going to be used and can schedule the throw days in between.

I concur that it's difficult to expect 30 starts from Maeda, but I think it's easier to manage his workload by going with 20 or so starts and then shifting to the bullpen as needed, particularly if that aligns with Paddack's return or guys like Winder, Woods Richardson or Varland kicking the door in in St. Paul. It's really hard to gradually increase the workload from being a reliever to a starter in a systematic way while trying to win games. 

Or 5 and fly

[old nurse]

The FO thought so highly O’Day Wisler they let him go. The Rays dud the same thing.

[IndianaTwin]

21 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Or 5 and fly

I suspect that we will indeed see a lot of 5-inning starts for Maeda. Difference being that with the depth of Gray, Ryan, Mahle and now Lopez, Maeda is the only that needs to be limited. 

Contrary to popular belief, in years when he has had the horses to do so, Rocco’s innings count for starters has been right at the league average. They were 0.3 innings shorter in the year when they used an opener on a number of occasions. They were 0.3 innings longer the year that he had Berrios, Gibson, Perez, Odo, Pineda.

We’re just jaded right now because last season he had Archer going short, a bunch of guys who were injured and a bunch of guys he had to be cautious with out of concern for their GETTING hurt and being replaced by Nos. 12-14. With the depth they have, I’ll not be surprised if they are average or even slightly above average in start length this year. 

[MTV]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We can only hope - I was looking for Pagan on your list since they are set on keeping him, can they turn him into a good RP?

Pagan’s problem is easy to fix: stop throwing fastballs down the middle. He strikes out a ton of batters, has a good arm and solid off-speeds, but him using his fastball 51.7% of the time in the heart of the plate isn’t working. Even just readjusting where he’s throwing to would be enough

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We can only hope - I was looking for Pagan on your list since they are set on keeping him, can they turn him into a good RP?

Not without a psychologist on the mound next to him……..really good stuff, no clue mentally.

Tough to watch the 0-2 & 1-2 pitches right down the middle. OR the nibbling just off the plate to walk a guy after cruising through previous batter………..up 1-2 on next guy - HR.

Then he pitches 2 2/3 of good relief over next 2 outings. I get he’s going to not be sharp some days but his focus (lack of) in the middle of a sharp outing is tough to tolerate!!!

Mr. J. Lopez is very similar - good stuff, no guts. Gets behind being cute & then center cuts a fastball right down broadway, as they say. HR.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Or 5 and fly

Managing innings out of the Pen is not complex!

If we’re up in a game and it’s past 15 outs/start if 6th, Maeda holds lead through the 8th!!

He does that every 4-5-6 days and he’s resting our Pen, & being very effective, with his innings being controlled.

He pitched in the Dodger’s Pen for parts of 2 seasons. Very effective. We could use some talent/experience down there to get to Duran without using 3 guys up.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Maeda to bullpen to limit his pitching  in long relief is a no Brainer coming off TJ surgery and if that isn't working  then short relief ....

Pagan ( reborn ron davis ) also should have been added to this list , I heard he was tweeking his pitching towards the end of last season and the twins staff was impressed  with the results in mop up duty   , time will tell ...

Megill had stretches of good and bad , so figure out the good and turn him loose ...

Not much confidence in coaching pitchers since the wisler addition ...

Pagan - got my fingers crossed. Hopefully, another team will see his value, along with Celestino’s & Kepler’s & we make a trade!!

J. Lopez - fingers crossed as well!!!

Maeda to Pen makes so much sense.

Megill needs some simple fix………eliminate slider……..throw a cutter at 95. Fastball at 97-98……,,,.curve around 88-90. Develop the cutter - hopefully easier to command than slider, less arm wear & tear? A cutter OR a change-up. Just needs the 3rd pitch 15% of the time. Curve 30%. Fastball 55%. Great pitch mix for him to keep guys off balance. I really thinks he’s got the biggest upside of the relievers, other than Duran.

[gil4]

On 1/22/2023 at 8:05 AM, mikelink45 said:

We can only hope - I was looking for Pagan on your list since they are set on keeping him, can they turn him into a good RP?

We can only hope.  As the saying goes, hope is not a plan.