Trading a Bat for an Arm

[Hunter McCall]

It hurts to lose Luis Arraez, but the strategy of trading a bat for an arm is a sound one.

Image courtesy of © David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 Minnesota Twins team was ravaged by injuries, which ultimately led to the team's demise. One area of the team that was affected as much, if not more, than any other unit was the starting pitching rotation. Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle all suffered severe injuries that led to minimal availability. Even Sonny Gray found himself banged up more often than the team would've liked.

The Twins’ rotation prior to the trade was Gray, Mahle, Joe Ryan, Maeda, Ober. On paper, this rotation looks to be reasonably solid one through five, but with the recent injury history of most of the staff, it left Twins fans, and likely the front office, holding their breath. The Twins also have a few arms close to the majors, such as Josh Winder, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson , but they likely want to avoid pivoting to young arms as often as they did in 2022.

For depth purposes, the Twins were interested in adding one more top-of-the-rotation pitcher. The problem is, those don't typically grow on trees and can cost a pretty penny to pry one away from a team willing to deal. Luckily for the Twins, they had depth in another area they were willing to dip into to acquire a solid starting pitcher.

After signing Carlos Correa, the Twins have put together a pretty impressive list of controllable hitters who gave them leverage on the trade market. I have listed below the Twins hitters on the 40-man roster who are set to compete for limited at-bats this summer. I also included the player's value according to BaseballTradeValues.com in descending order. Baseball Trade Values uses a scale to track every player's worth based on controllability, contract, and production.

Jorge Polanco 2B ($34.8M)
Luis Arraez 1B/DH ($26.6M)
Jose Miranda 3B ($26.4M)
Royce Lewis SS/OF ($22.7M)
Trevor Larnach OF ($14.6M)
Byron Buxton CF ($13.5M)
Ryan Jeffers C ($13M)
Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF ($11.9M)
Max Kepler OF ($7.6M)
Matt Wallner OF ($7.3M)
Carlos Correa SS ($7M)
Nick Gordon UTIL ($6.7M)
Gilberto Celestino OF ($1.8M)
Joey Gallo OF ($1.2M)
Kyle Farmer UTIL ($0.4M)
Christian Vázquez C (-14.2M)

To put these numbers into perspective, Pablo López has an estimated value of $38.8M.

The list above features 16 players who have either played a significant role for the Twins or will play a role this year. As it stands, with this many quality hitters, there are not enough at-bats to go around. The depth is excellent, but the Twins could capitalize on this depth by trading it for a solid starting pitcher. The Twins could have piece together many packages by agreeing to part ways with one or two of these players.

Arraez made a lot of sense to move in a large package for a frontline starter. While Arraez brings a fire to the game that is fun to watch, he is not without his flaws. The only defensive position he has shown to be above-average at is first base, and few teams are willing to commit to a first baseman who doesn't exhibit any power. With Arraez's lengthy injury history, there's a good chance his value will never be higher, making him a reasonable trade prospect.

There are many ways the Twins could have finished off the off-season, but it was paramount that they do all they could to add to their rotation. With the depth of Major League-ready hitters at their disposal, the Twins were able to turn a somewhat expendable pieces into a frontline starter who adds tremendous value to this team the way it is constructed.  

What are your thoughts? Should the Twins have traded a bat for an arm? Who would you have parted with? Should they consider doing something similar for a reliever? Let me know! As always, Go, Twins!

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[Craig Arko]

Bruce Wayne for Thor?

[strumdatjag]

I looked at the Marlins blog.   The most notable thing is that Lopez is viewed as injury prone with a bum right shoulder. Last year was the first year where he did not lose time to that injury.  
The reaction from Marlins fans is mostly negative, thinking they gave up too much with the two prospects, especially Salas.   They think the Marlins needed more power than Arraez will offer. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Given that the Twins starting pitching pipeline is not yet ready to contribute in a big way to the rotation, and the fact that we have hitters on the cusp of being major leaguers, trading a big bat for a starting pitcher was the best approach.  Also getting two hitting prospects  in return replaces the hitting we lost in Luis albeit a few years delayed.

[AlGoreRythm]

Thanks for the write up Hunter, I agree with all of the above.

Luis was a lot of fun to watch, but I'm expecting his knees to degrade at a relatively quick rate. I'm one who believes his value peaked last year and I give the FO credit for cashing in.

Freeing up 1st for AK and Gallo helps the log jam in the OF and IF.

[ashbury]

A good bat for a good arm is almost always a favorable deal. It's especially so if the FO keeps to its policy of drafting bats in the first round. (Not that Arraez himself was a June draftee, but I'm talking about the respective pipelines.)

[Oldtimer]

Anyone of the Julien, Lee, Lewis group are about to break through with equal hitting impact and likwise will become a new "fan favorite". I like the trade. Great addition to our pitching staff.

[jmlease1]

Right now the Twins have shown more success in developing hitters over pitchers and have more depth in their team and system on the hitting side, especially infielders. I don't subscribe to a view of it's always or even usually better to trade bats for arms; I think trades have to always be looked at in terms of the overall value of the deal as well as in terms of strengths and weaknesses in the system.

I think this deal makes a lot of sense for the Twins, even though I will miss Arraez a lot. More rotation depth is good. Lopez has the ability to be a quality playoff starter and was a legit #2 last season. With Gray, Mahle, and Maeda free agents in 2024, having someone like Lopez to front the rotation in 2024 makes a ton of sense. There's a real possibility that we've seen the top of Arraez's value, which is still significant; he had an excellent year last season. But if he's going to struggle to play the field because of injuries and be limited to primarily 1B/DH or spend considerable time on the IL...that's a real limitation. It's hard to see him adding much in the way of power, and he struggles against LHP.

The Twins also have a number of prospects that are close to being ready that can fill spots in the infield and show real promise as hitters. Martin has a lot of the same onbase skills that made Arraez so valuable and much greater speed and defensive ability. Julien is another onbase machine who has shown more power and power potential. Royce Lewis has far more speed even with his injuries and more defensive viability. Brooks Lee is doing everything right in the minors and could continue to rise very very fast. In Kirilloff, Kepler, and Gallo we have additional players who can fill the slot at 1B right now. So we're not creating a hole to fill one.

I really liked Arraez as a Twin. I hate to see him go. But we have to be honest about his limitations and his strengths, not just make this about how fun it was to see him at the plate. He wasn't the Twins "best hitter", even with the batting title. He had flaws in his game and real injury concerns. He was also a very good player and a very fun one. Perfectly fine to miss him and not want to see him go, but you have to trade value to get value and the Twins got good value without messing up the team.

[TwinsDr2021]

23 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Right now the Twins have shown more success in developing hitters over pitchers

I hate to be that guy, but remind me again who (this FO) has developed? Jeffers?

Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, AK, Gordon, and Buxton were carry overs (as was Garver) If you give this FO for developing previous regime top prospects than don't have also have to say what happened to all the other top prospects?

There are a few maybes Larnach, Lewis, Wallner but as of now I would say they actually have done a way better job of getting guys they acquired to the majors as pitchers more than bats. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Duran, Alcala, Sands

[Paul Walerius]

1 hour ago, Oldtimer said:

Anyone of the Julien, Lee, Lewis group are about to break through with equal hitting impact and likwise will become a new "fan favorite". I like the trade. Great addition to our pitching staff.

So far what we saw from lewis was that he can make up for loss average wise but I believe all three would be more power by a mile.  Even if they hit .280 -.290 I would be happy.  

[old nurse]

Trade Values are an opinion. Projection models on individuals is inaccurate, defensive measures are inaccurate. Bat for an arm is always a good trade as year to year statistics will show that good arms are tougher to find 14 and 16 different starting pitchers used the last two years shows the need for quantity. In any given year there are only about 50-60 pitchers that accumulate 2.5 fWAR. Quality is a premium.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Bats are not all the same, however much the Twins horrid roster construction seems to think so. I know that all SIX of the left-handed-hitting, low-batting-average, corner outfielders on that list together wouldn't have netted Lopez, but they certainly won't replace Arraez' impact in the lineup, either.

With two proven OBP bats on that list, and three that might be someday, this lineup is going to be horrible at scoring with any consistency, and completely incapable of sustaining rallies.

This will not end well.

[Muppet]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I hate to be that guy, but remind me again who (this FO) has developed? Jeffers?

Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, AK, Gordon, and Buxton were carry overs (as was Garver) If you give this FO for developing previous regime top prospects than don't have also have to say what happened to all the other top prospects?

There are a few maybes Larnach, Lewis, Wallner but as of now I would say they actually have done a way better job of getting guys they acquired to the majors as pitchers more than bats. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Duran, Alcala, Sands

I’d add to that that only Arraez and (gulp) Gordon were the only ones that showed that they could hit. The rest are all just potential (even Buxton). Let’s just hope they all break out next year. That’s the only way the twins are a winning team. 

[rv78]

Using your numbers I guess it is safe to say the $11M the Twins gave away to Gallo was a bit of an OVER-PAY!

[HoskenPowell]

Looking at Star trib boards this am was comical...people comparing Araez to the likes of Rod Carew.

 

Good lord people. Araz is no Carew ....Carew in particular was a gold glove fielder , incredible baserunner , possibly the best bunter of the era and won batting titles with FAR higher averages....career average is 14 points higher than Araez title winnning season in a very long career.

 

When Araez hits .333 , .350 , .364 .388 and .359 you get back to me.  Rodney Cline Carew would of had 10 more triples on Louis' doubles. And Rodney routinely turned 20 of his singles into doubles by stealing 2nd base.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Right now the Twins have shown more success in developing hitters over pitchers and have more depth in their team and system on the hitting side, especially infielders. I don't subscribe to a view of it's always or even usually better to trade bats for arms; I think trades have to always be looked at in terms of the overall value of the deal as well as in terms of strengths and weaknesses in the system.

I think this deal makes a lot of sense for the Twins, even though I will miss Arraez a lot. More rotation depth is good. Lopez has the ability to be a quality playoff starter and was a legit #2 last season. With Gray, Mahle, and Maeda free agents in 2024, having someone like Lopez to front the rotation in 2024 makes a ton of sense. There's a real possibility that we've seen the top of Arraez's value, which is still significant; he had an excellent year last season. But if he's going to struggle to play the field because of injuries and be limited to primarily 1B/DH or spend considerable time on the IL...that's a real limitation. It's hard to see him adding much in the way of power, and he struggles against LHP.

The Twins also have a number of prospects that are close to being ready that can fill spots in the infield and show real promise as hitters. Martin has a lot of the same onbase skills that made Arraez so valuable and much greater speed and defensive ability. Julien is another onbase machine who has shown more power and power potential. Royce Lewis has far more speed even with his injuries and more defensive viability. Brooks Lee is doing everything right in the minors and could continue to rise very very fast. In Kirilloff, Kepler, and Gallo we have additional players who can fill the slot at 1B right now. So we're not creating a hole to fill one.

I really liked Arraez as a Twin. I hate to see him go. But we have to be honest about his limitations and his strengths, not just make this about how fun it was to see him at the plate. He wasn't the Twins "best hitter", even with the batting title. He had flaws in his game and real injury concerns. He was also a very good player and a very fun one. Perfectly fine to miss him and not want to see him go, but you have to trade value to get value and the Twins got good value without messing up the team.

So I have to jump in one if these ……..”bird in hand”…….….vs. all the Rosie prospects we have coming. 11 guys in the game hit .300 or better last year. Arraez has a .314 BA over 4 seasons. He struck out 7.1% of the time and had a .366 BA with RISP. Saying he wasn’t our best hitter in 2022 is nuts!!

I like Lee - Lewis - etc coming from Farm/St Paul - but assuming they are going to out produce one of the 11 guys in the game that hit .300 or better last year because we are optimistic, is naive. EVERY organization has prospects they expect will succeed.

Buxton & Correa are both really good players with more physical talent relative to power. If there’s someone on base, .366 BA with RISP is undeniable. If he batted 3rd or 5th his opportunities to drive in runs and to drive the ball would be much greater and his value in run production would be viewed differently!

He bats lead-off and puts “the ball in play” and tries to get on base - that was his job. If he bats 3rd he may hit .295 but he’d have 85 RBI and he’d hit 12 HR with 40 doubles. Struck out 7.1% of the time…….

I HOPE someday Alex Kirilof has 85RBI and 12 HR and hits .295!!!! 🤞🤞

We need pitching, I get that & support that. With the values shown above in article I’d propose Jeffers - Celestino - Kepler ……(Marlins need CF & left handed bats) & Pagan or J. Lopez for their left hander, Luzardo!! To me, he’s the guy to get. No crystal ball, just seems to have better stuff & much longer team control. ………..I’d throw in the versatile Austin Martin instead of Jeffers if that would make it happen!!!

Bummed but will move on🙁🙁

[JD-TWINS]

Also, realize the NEED for making trades & potential trading for pitching is slim at this time of year. However, it seems to me and most everyone that signing Joey Gallo & keeping Max Kepler (with Gordon - Larnach - Walner as our real OF options other than Buxton) doesn’t make any sense. Doesn’t make any more sense now than it did a month ago.

Trading Kepler for anyone other than pitcher seems not very likely.

Am assuming the Marlins are set with their pitching situation? They do have approximately the 2nd best pitching prospect in MLB ready to go at some point (early) this year. They do still need offense.

They are moving their 2nd baseman to CF to make room for Arraez at 2B. Maybe they want to protect Luis as well………pretty sure they’ve heard about his lower than average D at 2nd and his questionable knees!!!

Again, we send Celestino for CF depth and a controllable guy for Miami. We send Kepler (starter in OF & upside w/o “the shift”) as well. From there it’s what Miami may be interested in………they just sent a high end IF prospect to us so Martin, with IF & OF capabilities may be of most interest……… maybe an arm to help protect there pitching depth?

Celestino - Kepler - Martin - 1 of Sands - Pagan - J. Lopez 

for 

Luzardo

I know this is not at all likely but if there’s an upside starter out there, 4 guys to get him is not too much!!!

 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

So far what we saw from lewis was that he can make up for loss average wise but I believe all three would be more power by a mile.  Even if they hit .280 -.290 I would be happy.  

Agreed - if we take the risk of trading Arraez for pitching, & the guy that fills in hits anything above .280 it’s a win for us! My concern is the guy hits .255 & little pop & we’re saying he needs a couple more years to develop.

Am optimistic but Lewis - 12 games - is 3 bad games from hitting  only .265 in 2022. He looked good - promising! Very small look before injury. Not drafted #1 because he wasn’t any good. SECOND ACL injury on same knee in 2 years……he may be OK but it may not work out.

We have more than one option now with guys that are coming so the odds are we will fill the Arraez hole by July, because it may take trying a few different guys.

[MTV]

For this team this looks like the trajectory for the future. I don’t think any of the arms in the Twin’s system are necessarily bad arms, but none of them look the part of a budding Ace. Ryan and Ober are about to be very good #2/#3 type arms, while Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic and Festa all look the part of solid 3-5s. I’ll give props to Prielipp, Raya and Canterino as they look like the most likely to turn into Aces of the bunch, but still haven’t necessarily reached that peak yet. With how this team has developed a very strong number of strong bats over the years trading them off for the premium Aces of the league seems like the go-to. I hope they can throw $20-$30m at an Ace soon, hopefully next off-season (I would LOVE for Nola or Urias to sign in MN) but with how payroll checks out that doesn’t seem like a reality yet, therefore trading these pieces looks like the only option. 

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, rv78 said:

Using your numbers I guess it is safe to say the $11M the Twins gave away to Gallo was a bit of an OVER-PAY!

Using MLB trade value's numbers they are underpaying Gallo by $1.2M. The only way you can have surplus trade value on a 1 year contract is by underpaying.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

Looking at Star trib boards this am was comical...people comparing Araez to the likes of Rod Carew.

It's a fair comparison, but not to the Rod Carew people saw playing for the Twins in the 1970s. Arraez compares to the Rod Carew the Angels got in the 1980s: no longer a plus on the basepaths and limited to 1B,

[Azviking101]

23 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I hate to be that guy, but remind me again who (this FO) has developed? Jeffers?

Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, AK, Gordon, and Buxton were carry overs (as was Garver) If you give this FO for developing previous regime top prospects than don't have also have to say what happened to all the other top prospects?

There are a few maybes Larnach, Lewis, Wallner but as of now I would say they actually have done a way better job of getting guys they acquired to the majors as pitchers more than bats. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Duran, Alcala, Sands

I think you have to give the FO credit in playing some role in their development even if they weren’t the ones to draft them, but I see what you’re saying for sure 

[specialiststeve]

Actually ... We traded a very good bat for a very good arm.. a very good prospect bat and a very good lottery ticket bat... 

[roger]

When I saw the Twins had traded Arraez I felt like that guy walking down the steet when he met someone who without warning punched him in the gut.  Punched him so hard he was on the ground gasping for air.  That's what the Twins did to me.

After sleeping on it, I now understand it.  Don't like it, but understand.  My biggest concern was the bullpen, but there are now going to be a couple very good starters in the pen.  Will it be Ober?  Maeda?  Someone else?  Don't know, but their pen just got stronger.  Starting rotation just got stronger.  And we all know what Tom Kelly used to say about starting pitchers.

But I still will ask who the heck is going to get on base?  Who is going to work the pitcher to a 10+ pitch at bat.  Who will give me the joy I had every time Luis came to bat.  I guess the good news is that in 2023 the Twins will play the Marlins a couple games and I will get to watch my favorite Twin in action.

[rv78]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Using MLB trade value's numbers they are underpaying Gallo by $1.2M. The only way you can have surplus trade value on a 1 year contract is by underpaying.

I guess I misunderstood the $1.2M figure. I figured that is all he is worth. Some minors leaguers that get paid the minimum can hit as good or better than him so I don't get how he is worth $11M + another $1.2M = $12.2M. If he is really worth $1.2M more than the $11M they paid him I suggest they trade him while his value is high.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

I guess I misunderstood the $1.2M figure. I figured that is all he is worth. Some minors leaguers that get paid the minimum can hit as good or better than him so I don't get how he is worth $11M + another $1.2M = $12.2M. If he is really worth $1.2M more than the $11M they paid him I suggest they trade him while his value is high.

You can't trade a player you just signed as a free agent until June 16th.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

I guess I misunderstood the $1.2M figure. I figured that is all he is worth. Some minors leaguers that get paid the minimum can hit as good or better than him so I don't get how he is worth $11M + another $1.2M = $12.2M. If he is really worth $1.2M more than the $11M they paid him I suggest they trade him while his value is high.

A player as good as Gallo getting paid the minimum on a 1 year contract would have $11.5M in trade value. It's player value minus what they are getting paid.

[rwilfong86]

On 1/21/2023 at 2:06 PM, ToddlerHarmon said:

Bats are not all the same, however much the Twins horrid roster construction seems to think so. I know that all SIX of the left-handed-hitting, low-batting-average, corner outfielders on that list together wouldn't have netted Lopez, but they certainly won't replace Arraez' impact in the lineup, either.

With two proven OBP bats on that list, and three that might be someday, this lineup is going to be horrible at scoring with any consistency, and completely incapable of sustaining rallies.

This will not end well.

I'm trying to see the positives in this trade but I have this nagging feeling about the rallies as well. Trading your leadoff hitter opens a huge hole in my opinion and they don't have a great option to plug into that hole. 

[Riverbrian]

17 hours ago, roger said:

When I saw the Twins had traded Arraez I felt like that guy walking down the steet when he met someone who without warning punched him in the gut.  Punched him so hard he was on the ground gasping for air.  That's what the Twins did to me.

After sleeping on it, I now understand it.  Don't like it, but understand.  My biggest concern was the bullpen, but there are now going to be a couple very good starters in the pen.  Will it be Ober?  Maeda?  Someone else?  Don't know, but their pen just got stronger.  Starting rotation just got stronger.  And we all know what Tom Kelly used to say about starting pitchers.

But I still will ask who the heck is going to get on base?  Who is going to work the pitcher to a 10+ pitch at bat.  Who will give me the joy I had every time Luis came to bat.  I guess the good news is that in 2023 the Twins will play the Marlins a couple games and I will get to watch my favorite Twin in action.

I agree with you. The margins are awfully thin on the offensive side.

Buxton is a health question mark

Polanco has been a health question mark. 

Gallo and Kepler are performance questions marks. 

Kirilloff and Larnach are both Health and Performance question marks. 

Gordon and Miranda are sophomores and sophomores... well. 

Two of the players on the roster will be catchers who don't hit much. 

I also understand the trade but Arraez needs to be replaced. We need a BAT! 

[roger]

57 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with you. The margins are awfully thin on the offensive side.

Buxton is a health question mark

Polanco has been a health question mark. 

Gallo and Kepler are performance questions marks. 

Kirilloff and Larnach are both Health and Performance question marks. 

Gordon and Miranda are sophomores and sophomores... well. 

Two of the players on the roster will be catchers who don't hit much. 

I also understand the trade but Arraez needs to be replaced. We need a BAT! 

Excellent comment, Riverbrian.

My hope is that the Twins know something we don't.  And that is the status of AK's recovery.  No one will know until spring training, but his bat could go a long way to offsetting Arraez' bat.  And he would be a noticeable improvement defensively.  They have lots of others who could have a better 2023, but AK may be the most important when looking for someone to offset the loss of Luis.