Assessing the Luis Arraez for Pablo López Trade

[Mike Sixel]

  On 1/21/2023 at 1:29 PM, Major League Ready said:

It's nice to see that the some of the national writers believe this deal pretty heavily favors the Twins.  I have been an advocate of trading Arrez for all the reasons mentioned here and the articles about the trade as long as the return was strong, and this was a very good return.  I see it as fairly close to a wash short-term but two high ceiling / athletic prospects could make this very favorable long-term.

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Fangraphs couldn't be more on the Twins' side of this deal if they tried.

[Major League Ready]

  On 1/21/2023 at 7:41 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs couldn't be more on the Twins' side of this deal if they tried.

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I read the one from fangraphs that someone linked earlier.  It made me feel pretty good because there was no emotion involved.  It was a well thought out and well-crafted assessment of the trade. There were a couple others that had a similar point of view but were not articulated as well as the Fangraphs piece.

[Dman]

  On 1/21/2023 at 6:35 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Disagree,  I’ve seen Salas ranked #7 on the Marlins prospect list and MLB currently slots him in behind Martin on our list. I’ve also read plenty that he doesn’t have the lateral range to be a SS and some even question his ability to play 2B. Who knows, adding Chourio might have been like that scene from Money Ball.

We can debate Lopez injury risk vs. Arraez’s.  But Arraez was the second best position player on the Twins behind Correa (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). He has a decidedly differentiated skill base at the plate than any other player on this team - by a lot.  He’s only 25 and there is no way you can hypothesise that he’s peaked.  The risk on Lopez having peaked is likely higher at 27.  Arm issues for a pitcher exceed knee issues for a hitter.

So many people are just assuming this a slam dunk, “we fleeced the Marlins” deal. It’s just my opinion that it is not that simple. But then again, we all need to live by the bible of Fangraphs. 

 

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I've read a lot of other national outlets that rate the trade fairly even simply because both teams addressed short term needs and prospects are wild cards you just don't know how they will turn out the failure rate is high.  If Salas and Chourio don't work out then sure the Marlins win this deal.  If they do work then the Twins really did well.

That being said prospects and farm systems are important for all teams and assets are assets.  The value for prospects is subjective and often based on how they are rated for various tools but it is an inexact science to be sure.  Take Eduoard Jullien for instance his scouting tools are below and he is below average in all of them except power which is only average and yet he is number 7 on MLB.coms top 10 for second basemen.  Sometimes a players tools exceed expected performance.

I know Salas's numbers have been brought down some as he has gotten older and filled out but being 19 and making it to High is no easy thing.  Very few players get there at that age.  The fact his bat suffered a little there shouldn't be too surprising.  His other tools seem fine to me.  He runs better than Lee and has the same arm and fielding grade they differ on Bat and Power so not sure why he couldn't stick at short at this point as I think Lee can play there for now.

At any rate prospects are important as they help build teams with some built in cost control and the Twins got two more good assets to develop or to trade for future big league assets.  I think they did well in this deal.

 

[rv78]

I'm not really sure what to think of this trade. With both players being young and in their prime I think it will take 2 or 3 years of watching them play and then evaluating them to see who got the better deal. I hate losing the best hitter on the team for a #2 starter. If it would have been an Ace it would be much easier to swallow. Should we believe the two prospects in the deal made up the difference? Maybe, but with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin, Miller all within a year or two/three and Miranda and Correa on board already, is getting another infielder in Salas really where the team needed more depth? Chourio is a long way off to place any value on other than hope. Questions now arrise. Will Rocco let Lopez pitch more than 5 innings? or 6? Who plays 1B if Kirilloff can't? Gallo and his .160 BA? That's a monstrous fall off from a .300 hitter. Who gets on base so the occasional HR's aren't all solo shots? I would agree the rotation is stronger and deeper but they still don't have an Ace. They also don't have an OB machine or pitch count accumulator, he's gone. Is a pitcher who plays every "5th day" going to improve the team enough to make up for a hitter that wore out opposing pitchers "every day"? Time will tell. 

[jmlease1]

  On 1/21/2023 at 6:35 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Disagree,  I’ve seen Salas ranked #7 on the Marlins prospect list and MLB currently slots him in behind Martin on our list. I’ve also read plenty that he doesn’t have the lateral range to be a SS and some even question his ability to play 2B. Who knows, adding Chourio might have been like that scene from Money Ball.

We can debate Lopez injury risk vs. Arraez’s.  But Arraez was the second best position player on the Twins behind Correa (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). He has a decidedly differentiated skill base at the plate than any other player on this team - by a lot.  He’s only 25 and there is no way you can hypothesise that he’s peaked.  The risk on Lopez having peaked is likely higher at 27.  Arm issues for a pitcher exceed knee issues for a hitter.

So many people are just assuming this a slam dunk, “we fleeced the Marlins” deal. It’s just my opinion that it is not that simple. But then again, we all need to live by the bible of Fangraphs. 

 

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You literally wrote off the prospects and said this is a one for one deal. I've seen Salas ranked as high as the Marlins #3 prospect and as low as #7. Most evaluators seem to have him in their top 5, but even if he should ranked at the lowest evaluator you can apparently find...he's still #7. he's considered to be a borderline global Top 100 guy (some systems have him in, several him outside looking in). That's a good prospect, and acting like he has no value and the only thing that matters is whether Arraez is "better" than Lopez is silly.

And this isn't about Fangraphs. Yes, they like this deal for the Twins quite a bit (note: their evaluator is a fan of Arraez) but so does almost everywhere else. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

  On 1/21/2023 at 10:20 PM, jmlease1 said:

You literally wrote off the prospects and said this is a one for one deal. I've seen Salas ranked as high as the Marlins #3 prospect and as low as #7. Most evaluators seem to have him in their top 5, but even if he should ranked at the lowest evaluator you can apparently find...he's still #7. he's considered to be a borderline global Top 100 guy (some systems have him in, several him outside looking in). That's a good prospect, and acting like he has no value and the only thing that matters is whether Arraez is "better" than Lopez is silly.

And this isn't about Fangraphs. Yes, they like this deal for the Twins quite a bit (note: their evaluator is a fan of Arraez) but so does almost everywhere else. 

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This feels like a one for one deal to me, too. 

Arraez was under control through the end of 2025 and I am wondering how much value you think Salas will provide to the Twins in that time?

[Mike Sixel]

  On 1/21/2023 at 11:09 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

This feels like a one for one deal to me, too. 

Arraez was under control through the end of 2025 and I am wondering how much value you think Salas will provide to the Twins in that time?

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How is that relevant? The Twins still exist after 2025....

[Major League Ready]

  On 1/21/2023 at 11:22 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How is that relevant? The Twins still exist after 2025....

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Thanks for this comment.  The total emphasis on immediacy absolutely blinds many people.  How many examples are there of guys like Tatis Jr or Corey Kluber?  Our own Jhoan Duran took 2 1/2 years.  A year or 3 years is far less relevant than what they turn out to be.  I would much rather wait 3 years for a guy that produces 5 WAR than get a 2.5 WAR guy that's ML ready.

[Nine of twelve]

  On 1/21/2023 at 3:53 PM, Dman said:

...when is the last time the Twins extended a pitcher?  I can't remember one.  

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Probably Dobnak, 2 years ago.

[Nine of twelve]

I get frustrated every time I see "Arreaz". One of the things I like best about this trade that I won't be seeing that as much in the future. Now if I can just get through the next few days...

[Twodogs]

  On 1/21/2023 at 6:35 PM, 2wins87 said:

Really, in the short term, the bet is more on Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis in the second half, and maybe Julien and Lee, not so much on Polanco, Kepler and Gallo. Kirilloff and Lewis in particular I believe have the upside to make it look smart, regardless of what Arraez does.  But there is certainly a gamble being taken on guys that have yet to establish themselves.

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Yeah that's what I'm saying.  Kirillof, Lewis and Julien aren't going to lead the Twins to the promised land this year.  But they are the future of the team, so in a year or so those guys will be leading the the squad hopefully and then this trade looks great if those guys become great.  Either way, I feel the twins got more value back than they gave up.  But in the short term the Twins are going to struggle to replace Arraez and his on base percentage.  

[Swing Batter-Batter]

  On 1/20/2023 at 11:35 PM, Muppet said:

But if Gallo’s 30 hits next year, 15 of them will be home runs. Arraez only hit 9 last year and 15 is more than 9. That math works right?

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Gallo's batting average is less than .200. Arraez is over .300.  Who gets on base more? You can't score if you don't get on base.

[JD-TWINS]

  On 1/21/2023 at 4:12 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Not sure this is the case - really not very good at either, but I’d be hard pressed to say the Twins are a good hitting ball club. At the moment I’d wager the ‘23 Twins are in the bottom 20-25% of all teams in strike outs, BARISP, OBP, and, most importantly, runs scored.

It’s more like Falvey thought that even with Arraez the Twins would never be able to hit their way to victory - might as well go long pitching. Better make a few more pen moves if that’s the case.

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C - Vazquez - .274

3B - Miranda - .261

LF - Gordon - .261

DH - Larnach - .238

2B - Polanco - .270

1B - Kirilof - .250?

CF - Buxton - .244

RF - Gallo - .199

SS - Correa - .279

(Miss that .314 career avg of Arraez)

I’d wager that if we hit .260 as a team, which seems very possible with Larnach & Kirilof getting at bats and performing over a few months, we are a top 40% of the league team in runs scored.

Would have loved to trade 4 other guys and kept Arraez………one of 11 guys that hit .300 plus in ‘22. Career .314 BA! Assuming we have guys that will make Arraez departure not matter is naive. I do think we have solid potential  coming!! Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22 & that’s exceptional. 7.1% strikeout rate & that’s exceptional!!! Tough to directly replace.

[JD-TWINS]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:41 AM, Twodogs said:

Yeah that's what I'm saying.  Kirillof, Lewis and Julien aren't going to lead the Twins to the promised land this year.  But they are the future of the team, so in a year or so those guys will be leading the the squad hopefully and then this trade looks great if those guys become great.  Either way, I feel the twins got more value back than they gave up.  But in the short term the Twins are going to struggle to replace Arraez and his on base percentage.  

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Maybe we take Gallo & the new kid, Salas & another prospect for another arm with control in July? At this point, if we stand pat, we need to check into trading Kepler/Gallo/Celestino & some of our excess IF talent at the dead-line.

Hopefully, we don’t stop pursuing pitching!

[August J Gloop]

  On 1/21/2023 at 2:29 AM, PDX Twin said:

https://www.startribune.com/twins-trade-luis-arraez-batting-craftsman-doesnt-set-well-patrick-reusse/600245265/

Says is all, and well.

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It definitely says a lot about PR's actual baseball knowledge when he credits Terry Ryan with the 2-8 scale. The rest of it is equally lazy. 

[Cris E]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:44 AM, JD-TWINS said:

I’d wager that if we hit .260 as a team, which seems very possible with Larnach & Kirilof getting at bats and performing over a few months, we are a top 40% of the league team in runs scored.

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If we hit .260 as a team it'll mean the whole roster hit 15 points above the league average and it would take some real strangeness to not be above average in runs scored.  If you're going to be so concerned about batting average you should take a look at the league context.  That list you're so worried about features exactly two guys below .243, the AL average in 2022, and those two guys are expected to be thumpers. 

But batting average doesn't really address the two real issues:  getting someone on base and then driving them home, and improving the pitching to reduce how many runs we need to score.  We've made a lot of good progress but we could really use one more solid bullpen arm. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

  On 1/22/2023 at 4:26 AM, August J Gloop said:

It definitely says a lot about PR's actual baseball knowledge when he credits Terry Ryan with the 2-8 scale. The rest of it is equally lazy. 

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“Terry Ryan, the former Twins general manager, used a 2-through-8 system to have his scouts evaluate players”

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

  On 1/21/2023 at 11:22 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How is that relevant? The Twins still exist after 2025....

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I mean, in another thread before the trade took place, you were telling me that trading away Arraez for Lopez wasn’t worth it, because Lopez was only a #3 and only had two more years of control. But now you are changing your tune. The minor leaguers Miami threw in are so far away that I find it hard to believe they tipped the scales for you that much. 

[Squirrel]

  On 1/22/2023 at 7:55 AM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I mean, in another thread before the trade took place, you were telling me that trading away Arraez for Lopez wasn’t worth it, because Lopez was only a #3 and only had two more years of control. But now you are changing your tune. The minor leaguers Miami threw in are so far away that I find it hard to believe they tipped the scales for you that much. 

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I wouldn’t have made the trade if it was strictly one to one. Miami adding the prospects makes it a better trade for us. As I said in another thread, I think it was a good trade, however, I would have liked the Twins to spend a bit more to get one of the other pitchers

[Major League Ready]

  On 1/22/2023 at 7:55 AM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I mean, in another thread before the trade took place, you were telling me that trading away Arraez for Lopez wasn’t worth it, because Lopez was only a #3 and only had two more years of control. But now you are changing your tune. The minor leaguers Miami threw in are so far away that I find it hard to believe they tipped the scales for you that much. 

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I posted the exact same position as Mike.  No way would I have traded Arrez for Lopez straight-up.  Those prospects absolutely made me change my tune.  Success for a team with a significant revenue disadvantage is absolutely dependent on acquiring/developing prospects regardless of its via draft or trade.  Nothing is remotely close in terms of importance. So, to place no value on prospects would pretty much guarantee failure on a long-term basis.  

[Nine of twelve]

  On 1/22/2023 at 8:49 AM, Squirrel said:

I wouldn’t have made the trade if it was strictly one to one. Miami adding the prospects makes it a better trade for us. As I said in another thread, I think it was a good trade, however, I would have liked the Twins to spend a bit more to get one of the other pitchers

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I suspect it would have taken more than a bit more to get one of the other pitchers.

[DJL44]

  On 1/21/2023 at 3:52 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Salas had just a good enough year to build back some trade value. But they know he’s no SS, probably not even an infielder.

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That conflicts with the scouts who saw him play in the Arizona Fall League. Consensus was he can play SS. The same scouts say Austin Martin doesn't throw well enough to stick at SS.

[2wins87]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:41 AM, Twodogs said:

Yeah that's what I'm saying.  Kirillof, Lewis and Julien aren't going to lead the Twins to the promised land this year.  But they are the future of the team, so in a year or so those guys will be leading the the squad hopefully and then this trade looks great if those guys become great.  Either way, I feel the twins got more value back than they gave up.  But in the short term the Twins are going to struggle to replace Arraez and his on base percentage.  

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I honestly do believe that Kirilloff could match Arraez's performance this year. Not his OBP, but with a good batting average and more power, his overall value could be similar. I feel similarly about Lewis.

It's not the most likely outcome, but the talent is there, and by this point both should be ready.  It's been quite a while since we've had a Twins prospect both stay healthy and perform near their talent level in their rookie year, but it's not really as rare as it seems for top prospects to immediately establish themselves as stars, or at least above average regulars.

I do think the first half of the year is risky. Miranda could hit a sophomore slump, Kirilloff could be rusty, or an injury could push Kyle Farmer into a starting role. I think by the second half, there is enough depth that someone will be ready to step up. I also think it's possible that Kirilloff starts hot and losing Arraez never really has a huge impact on the lineup, so we'll see.

[August J Gloop]

Assuming his wrist works, Kiriloff is far and away the better hitter. He has the skills to win a batting title, but with actual meat in it. Think 320/390/450 kind of guy. Twice as many homes and more doubles than luis. And no need to make provisos about his D at first. That potential alone is worth the risk of trading Arraez for pitching.

[jorgenswest]

Do the Twins have a better win projection in 2023 as a result of this trade? 

If the answer is no, it is reasonable to oppose this trade. The win projection after the Rogers trade dropped last year. The argument was that we had control of Paddock and Pagán for 2023. 2023 would be better. How did that turn out?

I do like the trade. I also get an assessment that Arraez is more valuable to the 2023 Twins than López. Unlike the Rogers trade the Twins have time to fix the line up before the season starts. I hope this isn’t the last move. 

[Mike Sixel]

  On 1/22/2023 at 7:55 AM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I mean, in another thread before the trade took place, you were telling me that trading away Arraez for Lopez wasn’t worth it, because Lopez was only a #3 and only had two more years of control. But now you are changing your tune. The minor leaguers Miami threw in are so far away that I find it hard to believe they tipped the scales for you that much. 

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One of them is a top 100 prospect, that's a valuable asset. So, I'm not sure why it's hard to understand. But I can see your disconnect from my position. I think this board generally undervalues prospects and lacks patience. Not you, but others. Salas has a ton of value as a trade piece at the deadline if they are looking to add ....

[Mike Sixel]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:48 PM, DJL44 said:

That conflicts with the scouts who saw him play in the Arizona Fall League. Consensus was he can play SS. The same scouts say Austin Martin doesn't throw well enough to stick at SS.

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That's what I've read also. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

  On 1/22/2023 at 12:37 AM, Nine of twelve said:

 

  On 1/21/2023 at 3:53 PM, Dman said:

...when is the last time the Twins extended a pitcher?  I can't remember one.  

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Probably Dobnak, 2 years ago.

 

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Er... um... gosh.

 

Who'd we get a year ago from the Padres?

 

Coulda sworn we extended him a few weeks ago. Right after avoiding arbitration.

On the tip of my fingers... started with a P but wasn't Pagan.... I foresee a use of the edit post feature in my near future...

 

Paddack! How could i forget him?

 

While i am looking it up, perhaps i should confirm we actually extended him...

 

In the meantime perhaps it is often the pitchers betting on themselves and not taking extensions offered.

Dobnak and Paddack were modest extensions with reason to have a realistic assessment of injury risk as t affected thier value?

Edited January 22, 2023 by sampleSizeOfOne
to make good on a promise to edit....

[Twodogs]

  On 1/22/2023 at 3:30 PM, 2wins87 said:

I honestly do believe that Kirilloff could match Arraez's performance this year. Not his OBP, but with a good batting average and more power, his overall value could be similar. I feel similarly about Lewis.

It's not the most likely outcome, but the talent is there, and by this point both should be ready.  It's been quite a while since we've had a Twins prospect both stay healthy and perform near their talent level in their rookie year, but it's not really as rare as it seems for top prospects to immediately establish themselves as stars, or at least above average regulars.

I do think the first half of the year is risky. Miranda could hit a sophomore slump, Kirilloff could be rusty, or an injury could push Kyle Farmer into a starting role. I think by the second half, there is enough depth that someone will be ready to step up. I also think it's possible that Kirilloff starts hot and losing Arraez never really has a huge impact on the lineup, so we'll see.

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Well us Twins fans really need to hope that Kirillof matches Arraez's totals, but I think that is wishful thinking right out of the gate.  Kirillof has over 300 AB's and has a  .295 OBP and a .694 OPS where as with Arraez high on base and low power numbers still produced an .838 OPS in his first 300 AB's.  So Kirillof has some adjustments to make but he has the talent.  Lewis won't be available until July so he misses the first 60% of this season at least.  That's kind of why I'm thinking the fruits of this trade produces next year.  Because guys like Kirillof get more at bats and can figure things out this season.  

[USAFChief]

  On 1/22/2023 at 5:40 PM, Mike Sixel said:

 I think this board generally undervalues prospects 

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I think it's just the opposite. I think this board overvalues prospects.

In many cases wildly overvalues prospects.