Assessing the Luis Arraez for Pablo López Trade

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Twins are a better hitting team than pitching -- and may still be so after this trade. 

Not sure this is the case - really not very good at either, but I’d be hard pressed to say the Twins are a good hitting ball club. At the moment I’d wager the ‘23 Twins are in the bottom 20-25% of all teams in strike outs, BARISP, OBP, and, most importantly, runs scored.

Its more like Falvey thought that even with Arraez the Twins would never be able to hit their way to victory - might as well go long pitching. Better make a few more pen moves if that’s the case.

[Nashvilletwin]

Winning solves everything - especially with front running Minnesota fans who’d rather spend their summer nights walking around a lake, fishing, biking, boating, etc. than watch a losing Twins club.

As someone who watched 150+ games last year, Arraez was must see TV for me.  I have no interest really in watching Kep anymore at the plate and Joey Gallo will really only be fun to watch to keep track of his k’s. Lol. 

Fangraphs be damned.  We lost our most fun player to watch (sorry, Buxton only plays 1/3 of the games and “I can’t believe I ended up in Minnesota” Correa is just hard to cheer for in the heart). Gallo and Farmer are not going to get me to tune in.  We will see about Lopez, but unless this team wins - and this is coming from a die hard Twins fan - my innings watched this year will likely be a lot less. Just keeping things real……

I actually view this more as either a) a hedge on not resigning one of Mahle, Gray or Maeda for whatever reason (injury, cost, plain old stink) and/ or b) not much faith in Ober, SWR, Varland, Winder and Balazovic. Either could be very valid reasons.

 

[Ruven]

5 hours ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Interesting take on the trade from SI.com: https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/01/20/luis-arraez-trade-pablo-lopez-twins-marlins

The penultimate paragraph is devastating in its assessment of the Marlins’ plan. Or lack of one 

[stringer bell]

A couple of thoughts: 1) It is not written in stone that Lopez will become a free agent after the 2024 season (he would be much more expensive). 2) Despite all of the man-games lost injury, the Twins were 11th in OPS, not dreadful.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

FWIW Fangraphs really likes this trade for the Twins https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-won-the-trade-that-had-to-happen/ They are pretty high on Salas and feel he is Minnesota's 3rd rated prospect if I read it correctly.  If true that would mean the first 3 players in the top 30 would be shortstops with 6 total in the top 30 (not including Martin).  Seems impossible.  It also would mean that MN has at least in some instances 3 top 100 shortstop prospects. Crazy times, crazy times,

Well that’s Fangraphs, but MLB has Salas as a 45 player, which in other words, is just another half-decent minor league player. (I’m sure he’s a great kid personally.) Top prospect, no. I don’t know if the Twins Daily writers are doing their own checking around, or just using one source and taking that source at face value, or where they are getting all this enthusiasm. From Fangraphs, I guess. 

MLB has Brooks Lee as the 10th best shortstop prospect. 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/ss/

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I have to say I am a bit surprised that Miami had to give essentially double the value for Arraez but they gave up things that shouldn't hurt them that bad and they literally got the American League Batting champion.  We didn't really get an ace and we only got two years of Lopez so I guess the difference needed to be made up somewhere.  It would have been pretty hard for Miami to find a better player for the deal they gave the Twins IMO.

That being said the Twins needed another solid pitcher to make sure this team can compete with the Guardians and White Sox and it looks like Lopez was the most attainable.  If the Twins can't resign him after two years there is a good chance they at least get a comp pick for him leaving granted the same should be true for Miami and Arraez.  I know Luis's knee's can give him trouble but Miami is getting a guy that can work counts and hits well with men on base.  They got what they needed and they have a lot of good arms coming up and got value for Lopez who they could afford to lose.  Once those Miami fans see Luis in action they will be happy with this trade.

Getting Lopez helps buy the Twins time for the pithing pipeline to produce some quality arms.  Next year they would still have Ryan, Ober, Paddack and now Lopez.  With Winder, Varland, SWR and Maybe Balazovich in the wings they get time to let them develop and see what they have.  It also gives time for Enlow, Headrick, Festa and Maybe Raya to be possible rotation pieces in 2024 or 2025.  So the trade helps but two years is not that long.

Getting a near top 100 Prospect in Jose Salas was a nice get.  I would have prefered pitching but a possible star player at short or third or Center is still helpful given all the prospects we had traded away recently.  They also got to hedge that bet with another interesting international signee Chourio who looks like he has good plate discipline, speed and only really lacks power at this time.  If those two or even one of them make it that gives the Twins another 6 controllable years of an asset and I like the odds for both players.

I think the OP has it right.  This trade worked for both teams as one really needed a solid hitter and the other a solid pitcher.  Hopefully this is one of those win, win deals.

We can extend Lopez so its not just 2 and done with him. At 26 yo, the FO should lock him up for an additional 3 years. 

[Mark G]

"While it’s sad to see Arraez go, the Twins’ front office deserves credit for making an excellent deal."

Sorry Matt, no disrespect intended whatsoever, but I will not start my reaction with that premise.  We have no way of knowing if this was an excellent deal, and we probably won't know until somewhere in the '24 season.  

Hitting for pitching; yeah, I get it.  But as much as I would normally go with that argument, this is a team that WITH Louis scored 3 runs or less in just over 48% of their games.  And that was with Correa, so he is not an addition from last year.  Now, take away your leading average hitter and your third leading (Urshella), and how confident are we that the injured will stay healthy and pick up that production?  

I hope that Pablo is everything we hope him to be, and he wins games 1 and 5 in the playoffs.  And in a perfect world he would face Arraez in game one of the World Series.  But you will forgive me if I don't hold my breath.  Get back to me in '24 and we'll talk again.

And as an aside, please, please please, enough with the "prospects".  19, and especially 17 year old kids in Class A don't move the needle for me.  Four year veterans with a career .314 BA, on the other hand, come along how often?  

One more time:  I hope you work out, Pablo.  You took the place of a gem.  

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, David Maro said:

Let's hope this works out for the Twins,and aren't looking at another pitcher with TJ needed. Where are the hits going to come from with this lineup. The team average without Arraez is 220-225. The team with him 240-245,which is still below average. Pitching is needed,but if the team can't hit what good is it. Tired of watching a team that looks to hit homeruns only and a manager who thinks that OK.

 

 

That's what I've been thinking. Last year was pretty bad trying to score enough. This is a much better pitching staff than we started with last year (if they can stay healthy) but at least on paper I don't see it as a "shutdown" staff. Would sure like to be proven wrong though!

[Karbo]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

I have said for the last year now that Ober would be a great candidate for the pen. He seems to have a certain amount of deception in his delivery, probably because of his size, and being in the pen would cut down how much guys see him to adjust. And with his injury history it just seems like a good fit. But I'm guessing instead they will start with a 6 man rotation, further stretching the pen (due to short starts).

[h2oface]

“As the trade details came in, though, the trade was much more favorable to the Twins than anyone imagined, with the Twins not throwing in prospects of their own, but instead receiving multiple prospects.”

Really? Anyone? Some, like me, don’t drink the Kool-aid. A batting champ for a number 3 starter, right handed starter at that, who had a number 5 second half, and a couple totally redundant hope and dreams? And a fan fav!  And that is a good deal? I didn’t even drink and I have to get rid of what just came up out of my mouth. 
 

The pic is what it is like to comment on this site on my iphone

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

https://www.startribune.com/twins-trade-luis-arraez-batting-craftsman-doesnt-set-well-patrick-reusse/600245265/

Says is all, and well.

I love Patrick's writing and baseball knowledge but everyone throws a clunker or two.

[Nine of twelve]

8 hours ago, jrod23 said:

I'd have preferred Kep and two of our prospects for Lopez, than Arraez for Lopez and two of their prospects.

Marlins would have said no.

[miracleb]

13 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

You could say that.  I don't believe that to be the case though.

he he he,,,I see what you did there.

:)

[miracleb]

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h2oface  6,986

• Verified Member

Posted 2 hours ago

“As the trade details came in, though, the trade was much more favorable to the Twins than anyone imagined, with the Twins not throwing in prospects of their own, but instead receiving multiple prospects.”

Really? Anyone? Some, like me, don’t drink the Kool-aid. A batting champ for a number 3 starter, right handed starter at that, who had a number 5 second half, and a couple totally redundant hope a dreams? And a fan fav!  And that is a good deal? I didn’t even drink and I have to get rid of what just came up out of my mouth. 

 

American League Batting Champ?  The famous line from Princes Bride comes to mind:  "You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means.  Take a look at a batting champion like Manny Ramirez in the early 2000's  Now THOSE would be batting champion numbers we could not afford to trade away.  A short, slap hitting 1st baseman is not a recipe for success.  I love the guy (Arraez).....but I also love this trade!

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[Major League Ready]

It's nice to see that the some of the national writers believe this deal pretty heavily favors the Twins.  I have been an advocate of trading Arrez for all the reasons mentioned here and the articles about the trade as long as the return was strong, and this was a very good return.  I see it as fairly close to a wash short-term but two high ceiling / athletic prospects could make this very favorable long-term.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

https://www.startribune.com/twins-trade-luis-arraez-batting-craftsman-doesnt-set-well-patrick-reusse/600245265/

Says is all, and well.

Most of Reusse's "analysis" is about style over substance and calling team management stupid for trading a player who is popular. Would love to know exactly how Reusse decided on his valuation for Arraez & Lopez (and demerits for using an outdated system from the Terry Ryan era, as if that name is a talisman for better management when the second Ryan era ended rather poorly) instead of all of the vague pablum he threw around. Because it seems like he pulled the numbers out of a hat rather than actually breaking the players down. (or paying any attention to the prospects gained as well, but some people only care about the MLB players gained when assessing a trade, making their analysis of limited use)

If the basis for how you evaluate a trade is base primarily on the style of play over production, then I'm not terribly impressed.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

It's nice to see that the some of the national writers believe this deal pretty heavily favors the Twins. 

Lol - This is exactly the reason why the merits of this deal should be questioned. The consensus of the “national” press generally means a bunch of group think by people too lazy to really delve into the issues and who simply parrot what each other write.

We shall see, but Lopez was clearly the one “youngish” SP of “quality” the Marlins were fixated on moving. Why? Probably because he had less control (a big issue for the Marlins) and he had less upside. Very possible he has peaked. How about Salas? Salas had just a good enough year to build back some trade value. But they know he’s no SS, probably not even an infielder. So Salas is our new Austin Martin, but with less OBP and a bit more power. Anyone want to wager if Salas’ national rankings go up or down this season within the Twins’ system? The last guy? If only we all had a nickel for every 17 year old phenom. Sheesh - his value is next to nada.

Sorry - but this very much is still a one-for-one trade and is not as cut and dried as the vast majority of TDers think. Hope it works out, but the beauty of an Arraez at bat was a reason to tune into every game. Lopez will not replace that.  There is no one on the Twins to replace what Arraez brought to the lineup. Kiriloff? Please. Miranda? C’mon. Farmer, or Gallo? Be serious. As a team struggling to score runs - and they will be that if Buxton doesn’t play 100 games and hit well - the Twins could be a very boring team to watch this year.  They’d better win….

[Dman]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

A couple of thoughts: 1) It is not written in stone that Lopez will become a free agent after the 2024 season (he would be much more expensive). 2) Despite all of the man-games lost injury, the Twins were 11th in OPS, not dreadful.

It might not be written in stone but when is the last time the Twins extended a pitcher?  I can't remember one.  If Lopez continues to pitch as he has been wouldn't that require a Berrios like deal that they pretty much turned down already?  If the deal is large will they want to fit that in with the Correa and Buxton signings?  It might not be written in stone but the odds would be very, very low on an extension IMO.

[HoskenPowell]

I would go right back to the Marlins and see what they would offer for Keplar / Gordon / Lewis and Pagan.....some pairing from that pool of players.  Try and get Luzardo

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

Nothing screams exciting baseball like winning a batting title with sub .800 OPS.....

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, Dman said:

It might not be written in stone but when is the last time the Twins extended a pitcher?  I can't remember one.  If Lopez continues to pitch as he has been wouldn't that require a Berrios like deal that they pretty much turned down already?  If the deal is large will they want to fit that in with the Correa and Buxton signings?  It might not be written in stone but the odds would be very, very low on an extension IMO.

IDK if they simply are not willing to sign a SP to a long-term deal.   However, it's been a very long time since this team had so many positions covered by low-cost players.  They project right at $100M for 2024 assuming they trade Kepler or don't pick-up his option.  That's estimating Lopez at $8.5M.  An additional $15M or $20M or even $25M for him or Nola / Severino / Mahle is just not a problem provided the other spots in the rotation are covered by some combination of Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Canterino / Festa / Raya / Prielipp / Balazovic.  That still leaves them room to cover arbitration increases and fill a BP spot.

Farmer and Polanco will also be replaced by prearb players so that's another $13M that will become available.  This FO has never been in this position, so I am not going to assume they won't sign someone when they have never been in a parallel situation.  Nobody thought they would sign a $200M free agent either.  The dream scenario for me is they get Nola next year.  That gives them Nola / Lopez / Ryan and two of Paddack / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and perhaps Festa / Prielipp and Raya by sometime during 2024.  That should result in very good depth and a couple guys moving to the BP.

[JesusisLord7]

I like the trade. And I really like Luis Arraez. He was worthy of the return. I think the Twins sold high on a guy who had a very good year. Luis will still have more good years but I think his knees trouble me for a kid only 25 years old and I anticipate he might have issues going forward. Both teams traded from a position of strength (surplus) so it makes sense. I hope Jorge Polanco is healthy and ready to have a big year because if not, the Edouard Julien kid is knocking at the door and also Austin Martin has a good on base .pct with plus plus speed (can steal bases) that the Twins lineup could use. All that said, I'm going to miss Luis Arraez and probably will follow the Marlins for the first time ever because of him. 

[Twodogs]

Honestly, I think the Twins lineup got weaker and to me it's their lineup that is the glaring hole this season, I hope that players like Polanco, Gallo, Kepler, etc.... all have renaissance seasons and this comment looks stupid.  But I think the Twins got weaker in the hear and now.  But I also feel like, and again I could be wrong, but I feel like the twins fleeced the Marlins on this one.  I think Arraez is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and the twins have no way to replace him and his OB%, no way.  But Arraez, asuch as I love him is always battling nagging injuries, (knees), and is a suspect infielder.  So to get a starting pitcher and two prospects for him is like a gold mine.  But at the same time like I said the Twins have no way to replace him in the lineup. 

 

If the Twins were coming off a season like 2019 and the lineup looked stacked, I wouldn't worry a bit, but these guys haven't performed up to their capabilities recently, only Arraez has so it'll hurt the lineup in the very present.  Even though I think the Twins did very well on the trade.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lol - This is exactly the reason why the merits of this deal should be questioned. The consensus of the “national” press generally means a bunch of group think by people too lazy to really delve into the issues and who simply parrot what each other write.

We shall see, but Lopez was clearly the one “youngish” SP of “quality” the Marlins were fixated on moving. Why? Probably because he had less control (a big issue for the Marlins) and he had less upside. Very possible he has peaked. How about Salas? Salas had just a good enough year to build back some trade value. But they know he’s no SS, probably not even an infielder. So Salas is our new Austin Martin, but with less OBP and a bit more power. Anyone want to wager if Salas’ national rankings go up or down this season within the Twins’ system? The last guy? If only we all had a nickel for every 17 year old phenom. Sheesh - his value is next to nada.

Sorry - but this very much is still a one-for-one trade and is not as cut and dried as the vast majority of TDers think. Hope it works out, but the beauty of an Arraez at bat was a reason to tune into every game. Lopez will not replace that.  There is no one on the Twins to replace what Arraez brought to the lineup. Kiriloff? Please. Miranda? C’mon. Farmer, or Gallo? Be serious. As a team struggling to score runs - and they will be that if Buxton doesn’t play 100 games and hit well - the Twins could be a very boring team to watch this year.  They’d better win….

Salas is 19 and had already performed well in low A and held his own in high A. There's a reason he's been considered as one of the Marlins top 5 prospects. Chourio is a lottery ticket at 17 to be sure, but he's the last part of this deal. The bigger issue here is you're throwing out any value of the prospects not based on scouting or statistical assessments but because you like Arraez, the way he hits, and are mad that the Twins dealt him. You can't pretend the prospects the Twins got back have no value just to run down the deal.

When people are talking about national media here, we're not just talking about the bobos at ESPN who only watch East Coast games and the Dodgers and think that wearing Yankee pinstripes adds extra magical value to any player. We're also talking about the analysts at places like Fangraphs, who do dig in on every player and always have scouting and statistical data to back up their analysis.

Despite all the injuries last season, the Twins were almost exactly league average when it came to scoring runs last season. That's not "struggling". They managed a top 10 OPS+ last year (again, despite all the injuries). For most of the season the offense was a strength of the club...until they had to start their 10th choice in the OF and so on. (BTW, when the Twins offense started to decline, Arraez wasn't fixing it, he was a culprit. Maybe you missed how much worse of a hitter he was Aug-Oct?)

I don't know if Lopez has peaked or not; it's a fair question. (if he has, he could still be as good as any starter we have on the roster) But if you're going to consider it, then you also have to consider the same for Arraez, who has at least as many injury concerns as Lopez and probably more questions about his upside, based on his defensive limitations and lack of power.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

Honestly, I think the Twins lineup got weaker and to me it's their lineup that is the glaring hole this season, I hope that players like Polanco, Gallo, Kepler, etc.... all have renaissance seasons and this comment looks stupid.  But I think the Twins got weaker in the hear and now.  But I also feel like, and again I could be wrong, but I feel like the twins fleeced the Marlins on this one.  I think Arraez is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and the twins have no way to replace him and his OB%, no way.  But Arraez, asuch as I love him is always battling nagging injuries, (knees), and is a suspect infielder.  So to get a starting pitcher and two prospects for him is like a gold mine.  But at the same time like I said the Twins have no way to replace him in the lineup. 

 

If the Twins were coming off a season like 2019 and the lineup looked stacked, I wouldn't worry a bit, but these guys haven't performed up to their capabilities recently, only Arraez has so it'll hurt the lineup in the very present.  Even though I think the Twins did very well on the trade.

Really, in the short term, the bet is more on Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis in the second half, and maybe Julien and Lee, not so much on Polanco, Kepler and Gallo. Kirilloff and Lewis in particular I believe have the upside to make it look smart, regardless of what Arraez does.  But there is certainly a gamble being taken on guys that have yet to establish themselves.

[Nashvilletwin]

27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Salas is 19 and had already performed well in low A and held his own in high A. There's a reason he's been considered as one of the Marlins top 5 prospects. Chourio is a lottery ticket at 17 to be sure, but he's the last part of this deal. The bigger issue here is you're throwing out any value of the prospects not based on scouting or statistical assessments but because you like Arraez, the way he hits, and are mad that the Twins dealt him. You can't pretend the prospects the Twins got back have no value just to run down the deal.

When people are talking about national media here, we're not just talking about the bobos at ESPN who only watch East Coast games and the Dodgers and think that wearing Yankee pinstripes adds extra magical value to any player. We're also talking about the analysts at places like Fangraphs, who do dig in on every player and always have scouting and statistical data to back up their analysis.

Despite all the injuries last season, the Twins were almost exactly league average when it came to scoring runs last season. That's not "struggling". They managed a top 10 OPS+ last year (again, despite all the injuries). For most of the season the offense was a strength of the club...until they had to start their 10th choice in the OF and so on. (BTW, when the Twins offense started to decline, Arraez wasn't fixing it, he was a culprit. Maybe you missed how much worse of a hitter he was Aug-Oct?)

I don't know if Lopez has peaked or not; it's a fair question. (if he has, he could still be as good as any starter we have on the roster) But if you're going to consider it, then you also have to consider the same for Arraez, who has at least as many injury concerns as Lopez and probably more questions about his upside, based on his defensive limitations and lack of power.

Disagree,  I’ve seen Salas ranked #7 on the Marlins prospect list and MLB currently slots him in behind Martin on our list. I’ve also read plenty that he doesn’t have the lateral range to be a SS and some even question his ability to play 2B. Who knows, adding Chourio might have been like that scene from Money Ball.

We can debate Lopez injury risk vs. Arraez’s.  But Arraez was the second best position player on the Twins behind Correa (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). He has a decidedly differentiated skill base at the plate than any other player on this team - by a lot.  He’s only 25 and there is no way you can hypothesise that he’s peaked.  The risk on Lopez having peaked is likely higher at 27.  Arm issues for a pitcher exceed knee issues for a hitter.

So many people are just assuming this a slam dunk, “we fleeced the Marlins” deal. It’s just my opinion that it is not that simple. But then again, we all need to live by the bible of Fangraphs. 

 

[IA Bean Counter]

I keep thinking back to Moneyball,  Do we care about batting average . . . no they get on base.   Arreaz gets on base .380 of the time.  There is an aspect of being able to move players on the basepaths,  but the issue with Arreaz is with the shift he will be the worst defensive 2nd baseman in the league.  He then will be clogging up 1st base or DH at bats.   You need some power from 1st and DH and arreaz just cannot do that.   

Getting back to moneyball,  we have a player that can easily replace Arreaz in the next year or two.  It is Edouard Julien.  In AA his OBP is .440.   he gives about the same quality of defense, maybe slightly more range than Arreaz.   So effectively what I am saying is we have players coming up that are effectively duplicates of Arreaz value,  they just get there differently and will likely be able to man 2nd base unlike Arreaz.   

To then be able to get a #3 pitcher (with 2 years of control) for Arreaz (4 years of control) is a steal in my mind.  Add in you Salas who is currently our #13 prospect and then a lottery pick.   Other than the personal love for Arreaz I just don't understand those being upset with the trade.   Arreaz had a .385 batting average in 140 at bats against the White Sox and Kansas City.   That means a 1/4 of his at bats occurred against what was weak pitching (for white sox primarily occurred against replacement pitchers last year).  The only team with semi weak pitchers in the NL East is Washington but they were much better than Kansas City.  Essentially I am saying he had inflated stats.  Arreaz will have to be a 10% better player next year just to maintain the stats he had for the Twins is my opinion and I don't think he will be able to do that.  If he is a .290 hitter with no power then almost all of the value of Arreaz is gone.    We can love the player yet at the same time know that this was a very very good deal for the Twins.  

[hitterscount]

Did we really need another infield prospect? I have no issues trading Arreaz, it's a business, but if the goal was to land a top quality/ace type arm than we probably missed the mark with Lopez. 

I would have demanded Cabrea or Luzardo in return and if another prospect on our end was needed so be it, The goal was to land an ace or high end 2 starter that can stop losing streaks or a win playoff game or two, not sure we accomplished that while giving up the one player that is constantly on base. If the Marlins were unwilling to part with either one of those two I would have walked. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs rates their new SS as the Twins' 3rd best prospect! Wow. 

This is a great trade for MN. They are flush with 2B, and if Kiriloff is hurt, they have options at first / DH. They added a number 3, who could be better after running out of gas last year. I get that people like watching Arraez, but this is a great trade.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Did we really need another infield prospect? I have no issues trading Arreaz, it's a business, but if the goal was to land a top quality/ace type arm than we probably missed the mark with Lopez. 

I would have demanded Cabrea or Luzardo in return and if another prospect on our end was needed so be it, The goal was to land an ace or high end 2 starter that can stop losing streaks or a win playoff game or two, not sure we accomplished that while giving up the one player that is constantly on base. If the Marlins were unwilling to part with either one of those two I would have walked. 

 

Did they really need their 3rd best prospect? Yes, yes they did. On top of another prospect, and a number 3 / 2 SP? Yes. 

There are no aces available.